2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Helobious 9450]

Just now, Js1 said:

Can we get an Olympics for Harris call? Lebron, Curry, Biles, Lyles, etc?  

It’s a Harris win!!! 

I don’t know who will win the election. I know Trump isn’t losing every close state like BO&W thinks. 

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Trying to find hopeful information that polling is more accurate this year.  Axios points out that the very fact that Trump was leading in so many of the polls up to now might be evidence of that.

 

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/15/2024-election-polls-trump-biden

I 100% find 2016 polling as an anomaly with how the D candidate was selected and her lack of campaigning in key states. She literally thought she had it won.....

[Old Freak Nasty 821]

2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol at Trump losing Georgia & PA. You knew trump was in trouble in 2020 because he truly barely won several Great Lake states in 2016. Regression to the mean. The same logic applies for the dems this time. 

Of course let's ignore the candidates and campaigns in the name of "regression".  Dumb.

[Js1 85275]

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I 100% find 2016 polling as an anomaly with how the D candidate was selected and her lack of campaigning in key states. She literally thought she had it won.....

The article even says it - a lot of late flips upended the polling. Thanks Comey! 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I 100% find 2016 polling as an anomaly with how the D candidate was selected and her lack of campaigning in key states. She literally thought she had it won.....

2020 was even worse tho.

[Willfully Horn 8001]

4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I think it's the opposite, actually. Half the country either didn't watch or actively cheered against the US for one or more of several dumbass cloak room reasons, including fake outrage over the opening ceremony, the exclusion of their beloved Russia, because Simone Biles has expressed political opinions in the past, and that some of the Black athletes expressed confidence which makes them "thugs" (while all us know what they really mean), including both men's and women's basketball teams. I saw a headline this morning that US women won more medals than US men, I can assure you the comments on that topic will be pure 'murica.

That makes sense. I left out part of Bartley’s quote, though, so my post was unclear. Barkley said (Mulaney) needs to go to the Olympics, that at  the Olympics, everyone loves their country.

Mea culpa.

Edited August 12 by Willfully Horn

[Dahobbs 17526]

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

2020 was even worse tho.

How so? 

[South Austin 52449]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

How so? 

Tom Herman.

[Pancho 44707]

7 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol at Trump losing Georgia & PA. You knew trump was in trouble in 2020 because he truly barely won several Great Lake states in 2016. Regression to the mean. The same logic applies for the dems this time. 

 

Thank you for your service. 

[Js1 85275]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

How so? 

2020 had a response issue. Dems stayed home for Covid stay at home orders, republicans did not. Dems didn’t get to do traditionally ground game either because they were following Covid orders. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

How so? 

Everyone said it was the worst error in 40 years.  They got it "right" but it was supposed to be a cakewalk for Biden.  All of the MN, WI, MI states were something like D+7.  Stuff like that.

 

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

5 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I don’t know who will win the election. I know Trump isn’t losing every close state like BO&W thinks. 

Here you go, I'll give you

 

Here ya go dipshit....I'm not conceding Pennyslvania to Trump a state only won by republicans 1 time in 8 elections or something like that.

 

So even with NC and Georgia it's a democratic win.

[YChang 3443]

22 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

My expert analysis

You know... I don't think I would mind if the rest of the country went with how NE and ME handled their EC counts. 

[Helobious 9450]

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I think it's the opposite, actually. Half the country either didn't watch or actively cheered against the US for one or more of several dumbass cloak room reasons, including fake outrage over the opening ceremony, the exclusion of their beloved Russia, because Simone Biles has expressed political opinions in the past, and that some of the Black athletes expressed confidence which makes them "thugs" (while all us know what they really mean), including both men's and women's basketball teams. I saw a headline this morning that US women won more medals than US men, I can assure you the comments on that topic will be pure 'murica.

I actively rooted against the USWNT in the last World Cup, just because it was obvious they cared more about being activists than about being good at soccer. It seriously felt like the entire country was behind me on that one.
 

It didn’t feel nearly the same this year. Everyone that cared enough to pay attention was rooting for them. Getting rid of that “old guard” of unlikeable players that weren’t good anyway made a world of difference. I noticed Biles had a ton of widespread support too, as most sensible people realized the “she quit” narrative was nonsense.

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

7 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol at Trump losing Georgia & PA. You knew trump was in trouble in 2020 because he truly barely won several Great Lake states in 2016. Regression to the mean. The same logic applies for the dems this time. 

Honestly, Helo is a pretty good troll.  Finds the exact two states that would shift this map to the other side, despite them having no correlation historically/demographics/etc.  

[Pancho 44707]

Just now, Helobious said:

I actively rooted against the USWNT in the last World Cup, just because it was obvious they cared more about being activists than about being good at soccer. It seriously felt like the entire country was behind me on that one.
 

It didn’t feel nearly the same this year. Everyone that cared enough to pay attention was rooting for them. Getting rid of that “old guard” of unlikeable players that weren’t good anyway made a world of difference. I noticed Biles had a ton of widespread support too, as most sensible people realized the “she quit” narrative was nonsense.

 

So you’re anti-American as well? 

 

[Js1 85275]

1 minute ago, YChang said:

You know... I don't think I would mind if the rest of the country went with how NE and ME handled their EC counts. 

It would be more fair. That’s for sure. But it’ll never happen 

[YChang 3443]

9 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I don’t know...

You and well a lot of us... can just stop and be more self-reflective and admit that there's a lot we don't know. You especially. 😄

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

8 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Everyone said it was the worst error in 40 years.  They got it "right" but it was supposed to be a cakewalk for Biden.  All of the MN, WI, MI states were something like D+7.  Stuff like that.

 

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020-poll-errors/2021/07/18/8d6a9838-e7df-11eb-ba5d-55d3b5ffcaf1_story.html

 

Quote

Public opinion polls in the 2020 presidential election suffered from errors of “unusual magnitude,” the highest in 40 years for surveys estimating the national popular vote and in at least 20 years for state-level polls, according to a study conducted by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR).

The AAPOR task force examined 2,858 polls, including 529 national presidential race polls and 1,572 state-level presidential polls. They found that the surveys overstated the margin between President Biden and former president Donald Trump by 3.9 points in the national popular vote and 4.3 percentage points in state polls.

Polls understated the support for Trump in nearly every state and by an average of 3.3 percentage points overall. Polls in Senate and gubernatorial races suffered from the same problem.

 

[Pato del Muerto 52485]

8 minutes ago, YChang said:

I don't think

Two can play the quoting game!

[shakahorn 1645]

15 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I 100% find 2016 polling as an anomaly with how the D candidate was selected and her lack of campaigning in key states. She literally thought she had it won.....

So did a lot of people.  I was joking with some friends that I was gonna vote Trump because "someone's gotta vote for that asshole."

[royiv 9247]

7 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I actively rooted against the USWNT in the last World Cup, just because it was obvious they cared more about being activists than about being good at soccer. It seriously felt like the entire country was behind me on that one.
 

It didn’t feel nearly the same this year. Everyone that cared enough to pay attention was rooting for them. Getting rid of that “old guard” of unlikeable players that weren’t good anyway made a world of difference. I noticed Biles had a ton of widespread support too, as most sensible people realized the “she quit” narrative was nonsense.

Uh, no. It was you and the incel crowd that cheered against Americans in international competition. The rest of us saw a bunch of bad ass American female athletes. 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

20 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I don’t know who will win the election. I know Trump isn’t losing every close state like BO&W thinks. 

That is the most reassuring thing I've read in a week.

 

Edited August 12 by cactusflinthead
Time. What is it?

[Blotto 23488]

I cant recall being contacted by a polling organization in 25+ years. I haven't had a landline since maybe 2008, and I was probably late ditching it then.  I get the feeling there is a subset of ~15,000 lonely people in this country that answer their phones every time they ring, and the pollsters just keep checking in with them to save time. 

[TexArcher 37763]

18 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Tom Herman.

 

 

[tx 3 putt 76870]

26 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol at Trump losing Georgia & PA. You knew trump was in trouble in 2020 because he truly barely won several Great Lake states in 2016. Regression to the mean. The same logic applies for the dems this time. 

i remember the Georgia R party asking for more money months before the 2020 election and the kush denying them 

[texasdago 7567]

8 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I cant recall being contacted by a polling organization in 25+ years. I haven't had a landline since maybe 2008, and I was probably late ditching it then.  I get the feeling there is a subset of ~15,000 lonely people in this country that answer their phones every time they ring, and the pollsters just keep checking in with them to save time. 

I'm sure they've tried calling me.  I'm sure I haven't picked up that "Telemarketing" or "Spam suspected" call either.

21 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I actively rooted against the USWNT in the last World Cup, just because it was obvious they cared more about being activists than about being good at soccer. It seriously felt like the entire country was behind me on that one.

What an odd flex but not surprising

['stache 21795]

27 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

That makes sense. I left put part of Bartley’s quote, though, so my post was unclear. Barkley said you (Mulaney) needs to go to the Olympics, that at  the Olympics, everyone loves their country.

Mea culpa.

Yeah, I would think anyone who paid to go to the games were there to cheer for the US, but back home, man it's just a beating living in today's US society.

[Js1 85275]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/12/three-year-inflation-outlook-hits-record-low-in-new-york-fed-consumer-survey.html

Consumers grew more confident in July that inflation will be less of a problem in the coming years, according to a New York Federal Reserve report Monday that showed the three-year outlook at a new low.

The latest views from the monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations indicate that respondents see inflation staying elevated over the next year but then receding in the next couple of years after that.

In fact, the three-year portion of the survey showed consumers expecting inflation at just 2.3%, down 0.6 percentage point from June and the lowest in the history of the survey, going back to June 2013.

Respondents expect the price of gas to increase by 3.5% over the next year, 0.8 percentage point less than in June, and food to see a rise of 4.7%, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than a month ago.

In addition, household spending is expected to increase by 4.9%, which is 0.2 percentage point lower than in June and the lowest reading since April 2021, right around the time when the current inflation surge began.

Expectations for employment brightened, despite the rising unemployment rate. The perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next year fell to 14.3%, down half a percentage point, while the expectation of leaving one’s job voluntarily, a proxy for worker confidence about opportunities in the labor market, climbed to 20.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase for the highest reading since February 2023.

[SydneyCarton 48054]

38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

He’s not stupid. He’s going to announce he’s a 2028 candidate 5 seconds after Kamala is inaugurated. 

Sir. 

 

[mdmost 42999]

You guys give clowns like Helobious and Rex Kramer way too much oxygen. Throw the lid on those grease fires.

[Js1 85275]

6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Sir. 

 

Okay, yes he is stupid, but "I'm a presidential candidate" was a crux of his defense.  He will just announce again and force SCOTUS to protect him, again. 

[aggie08 21484]

44 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol at Trump losing Georgia & PA. You knew trump was in trouble in 2020 because he truly barely won several Great Lake states in 2016. Regression to the mean. The same logic applies for the dems this time. 

[Pato del Muerto 52485]

Calling helo a grease fire feels a little racist-adjacent. 

[Biff Tannen 45665]

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

My expert analysis

That looks right to me

[Helobious 9450]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Calling helo a grease fire feels a little racist-adjacent. 

That one even slipped by me. Thank you for being an ally.

It’s also funny that people on here think I’m some trump supporter when I’m not. 2 chances to vote for him and I didn’t either time. I am a realist though, and I seriously think whatever candidate wins is going to win 270-268. You have to give trump Michigan & Georgia at this point. It’ll all come down to PA

[tbone_ 14110]

 
 
 

What does he owe these cities money for?

[Biff Tannen 45665]

59 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Those fuckers will never win the presidency ever again if we flip.

This is their concern dude.  Hence why our state government shits all over Harris county and tries to disenfranchise them (along with DFW, but more so Houston).  I'm sure they gave up on Travis decades ago.

[Bozo_Casanova 26436]

56 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Yeah, Front 242 going to be stuck in my head all day

Yep, I had to go ahead and listen to Headhunter at the gym. 

Edited August 12 by Bozo_Casanova

[Biff Tannen 45665]

57 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol at Trump losing Georgia & PA. You knew trump was in trouble in 2020 because he truly barely won several Great Lake states in 2016. Regression to the mean. The same logic applies for the dems this time. 

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is their concern dude.  Hence why our state government shits all over Harris county and tries to disenfranchise them (along with DFW, but more so Houston).  I'm sure they gave up on Travis decades ago.

Collin will be interesting if they try fuckery there if it does flip finally.....

[Huckleberry 32848]

3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

That one even slipped by me. Thank you for being an ally.

It’s also funny that people on here think I’m some trump supporter when I’m not. 2 chances to vote for him and I didn’t either time. I am a realist though, and I seriously think whatever candidate wins is going to win 270-268. You have to give trump Michigan & Georgia at this point. It’ll all come down to PA

Nobody thinks you're a Trump supporter. Everyone thinks you're a fool. 

Whether it's a bit or you're genuinely this foolish is something only you can know. 

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

4 minutes ago, Helobious said:

 

It’s also funny that people on here think I’m some trump supporter when I’m not. 2 chances to vote for him and I didn’t either time. I am a realist though, and I seriously think whatever candidate wins is going to win 270-268. You have to give trump Michigan & Georgia at this point. It’ll all come down to PA

They think you have the IQ of a Trump supporter.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19100]

5 minutes ago, Helobious said:

That one even slipped by me. Thank you for being an ally.

It’s also funny that people on here think I’m some trump supporter when I’m not. 2 chances to vote for him and I didn’t either time. I am a realist though, and I seriously think whatever candidate wins is going to win 270-268. You have to give trump Michigan & Georgia at this point. It’ll all come down to PA

 

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Nobody thinks you're a Trump supporter. Everyone thinks you're a fool. 

Whether it's a bit or you're genuinely this foolish is something only you can know. 

This.  You are one of the biggest idiots in this community, and it isn't close.

[DixonHur 11292]

6 minutes ago, Helobious said:

You have to give trump Michigan

Why?  Kamala is up almost 3 points in Michigan.

[Ted Lange 16084]

From the Tweet above

LOL.  

[Js1 85275]

I mean, it’s one thing to think Georgia could flip back. Still could - def was going to if  Biden was still in the race. But uh, the GOP has only won PA once since 1992. And that was because America got Hillary’d

Same with Michigan 

Edited August 12 by Js1

[mdmost 42999]

16 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Calling helo a grease fire feels a little racist-adjacent. 

You'll have to explain that to me then. He comes in here seeking attention and everyone gladly gives it to him. Just like Rex Kramer. Just ignore or laugh at them and move on. You're trying to throw water on a grease fire. 

[tx ind 7006]

9 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

What does he owe these cities money for?

Venue space, security/police, platters from McDonald’s 

[6th Street 6390]

Having Kari Lake down ballot is a huge downside for Trump in AZ and likely enough to swing it to Harris.