2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Js1 83,903]

7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah, it’s hard to think he has a better shot in Nevada than in 2020 when the hospitality union and the democratic machine can actually knock on doors and get out the vote. 

2016 - average was Trump 0.8, Clinton won 2.4. Senate average was CCM 1.8, she won by 2.4

2018 NV Senate - avg was a tie. Rosen won by 5

2020 - nailed it - average was 2.4, Biden won by 2.4

2022 Senate - Laxalt 3.4, CCM won 0.9

Edited August 14 by Js1

[Snake Diggity 4,574]

Current prediction: 2020 map, flip Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.  Harris with 297 EV.  Trump cries fraud in PA, AZ, WI, and NC.

[Js1 83,903]

3 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Current prediction: 2020 map, flip Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.  Harris with 297 EV.  Trump cries fraud in PA, AZ, WI, and NC.

Yeah sorry, I'm not buying Nevada.  The GOP hasn't managed to win Nevada in 20 years.  If Hillary Clinton won it, Kamala Harris will win it. 

Also for those who don't remember - the polls for GA didn't really start to turn into Biden's favor until late-September.  And even then, Trump barely led in a number of them leading up to November. 3 of the final 5 polls had Trump winning GA.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 18,554]

It is still about 3 months out to the election. Can I just say I hate this long election cycle.  Can we be more like France and condense the whole fucking mess into 4 months or so?

[Hank Kingsley 20,177]

Texas has gotten a lot stupider over the last 4 years. I'm not holding my breath. 

 

[Kel Varnsen 8,327]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

How could I have never seen or heard of this American Classic?

[Burt 4,047]

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

Montana didn't like the SoB

 Some of us in Montana still dont.

Edited August 14 by Burt

[Hank Kingsley 20,177]

It's so beautiful to see effort and competency in a Democratic campaign. It's been a while. 

 

 

[Pancho 43,093]

Not the best ad I’ve seen but it could be effective 

 

[Biff Tannen 45,239]

38 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Arizona makes more sense in these polls.  That said, I don't trust shit and we have to play like we are behind.  Because we very well may be.  Because people fucking suck.

[South Austin 51,704]

32 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Pics of Oregon thotts or gtfo. 

You may have to settle for the UO parent milfs. I’m not going to be the creeper sneaking pics of incoming freshman.

[Dahobbs 17,261]

15 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Texas has gotten a lot stupider over the last 4 years. I'm not holding my breath. 

 

See? It didn't get dumb! And, maybe we can convince some of the Trumpy transplants that actually holding their breath will help Trump win. 

[mdmost 42,514]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html

[Dahobbs 17,261]

4 minutes ago, South Austin said:

You may have to settle for the UO parent milfs. I’m not going to be the creeper sneaking pics of incoming freshman.

But video you can do, right? 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 18,554]

Also, let's talk about the economy.

[Js1 83,903]

1 minute ago, mdmost said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html

Dude, your cokehead son was the one who pushed Vance.

But making a campaign manager change in August to avoid blaming your kid?  Proceed.

[Francisco 2.0 32,232]

1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

 

 

 

 

[Js1 83,903]

 

[LurkingHorn 1,035]

44 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Will be very interesting to see how close Texas is.  There’s zero 0% chance it goes blue this year but if it keeps trending and gets closer than ~3.5% then the following cycle it should actually be in play.  Personally I think there will be a negative reaction in Texas to Harris’ race and gender and the gap will widen to 6-7%.  I hope I’m wrong.

This is where I'm at as well. I don't think she's going to perform better than Biden here. 

[Bozo_Casanova 25,949]

22 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Not the best ad I’ve seen but it could be effective 

 

I was talking with my wife’s cousin from Beaumont about this kind of thing. Essentially, fundamentalist evangelicals see Donald Trump as anointed- like a Cyrus or King David. He’s not a Godly man so much as he is God’s instrument. 

[Francisco 2.0 32,232]

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/08/trump-campaign-musk-interview/679451/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-atlantic-am&utm_term=The Atlantic AM

 

Quote

That was a crazy public service provided by Elon Musk and X.

The X Spaces interview delivered Donald Trump without makeup or dress-up, talking unselfconsciously: manic, boastful, untruthful, aggrieved, abusive, obsessive, random, ignorant, tedious, bitchy—and ultimately, formless and endless. You might think a major-party presidential nominee would have other claims on his time, some sort of deadline, if only to get some sleep to ready himself for the next day’s campaigning. But no. At no point in the explosion of talk could one guess whether it would continue for another five minutes or another five hours.

 

Quote

Presidential campaigns typically struggle against the limits of time, especially as they enter the final autumn stretch. There are only so many days, so many hours, to reach so many millions of people across this vast country. The candidate’s minutes are a limited and precious resource, to be allocated by art and science to best effect. Yet Trump seemed to have no budget for his time, no plan of campaign, no message to drive—and nothing else to do, nowhere else to go.

Trump’s not running against President Joe Biden anymore, yet he talked about Biden at least as much as about his actual opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. He still lacked any clear or memorable critique of her, except for his derisive comments about her supposed inability to do the kind of interview that he, Trump, was making such a desperate hash of. Trump is the challenger and the topic should be the Biden-Harris record, but he preferred to reminisce about his own good old days.

 

Quote

There’s an old joke about the fool at the poker table: If you don’t know who it is, it’s you.

Musk had a rational plan for last night’s event. An interview with a major-party presidential candidate drives traffic. A fawning and flattering interview might well buy favor for Musk from a possible future Trump administration. Sure enough, Trump offered Musk a position on a hypothetical commission to purge waste from government spending. Musk enthusiastically accepted.

 

Spoiler

The interview also cast light on the discipline and strategy that has guided the reintroduction of Harris to the voting public. Harris ran for president in 2019–20 without igniting much enthusiasm. As vice president, she made little impact on governance. She campaigned hard in the 2022 midterms. Yet the groups she was supposed to excite—young people, Black Americans, women, and white female college graduates—posted generally lower turnout rates after her 2022 appeals than they did in the midterms of 2018. Before this summer, she was not widely regarded as a political star.

Then suddenly: Zing! The lights all went on. Huge crowds have gathered for her, sizzling with enthusiasm. How did that happen? Through the alchemy of politics, an alchemy that invites people to see themselves in a political champion, that depends heavily on selective availability. A champion who’s too invisible fades from mind, as Biden did during his presidency. Too visible, and the champion can become overdefined, in ways that may alienate reachable voters. This is Trump’s problem. For all his jibes at her intellect, Harris is managing the mystery appeal effectively. Whereas Trump, who endlessly congratulates himself on his MIT-professor uncle’s brains, is fast arriving at the “Will you please shut up?” phase of his political descent.

Meandering, solipsistic, and crushingly boring—the interview was an awful premonition of the rest of Trump’s life should he lose again, in November: wandering the corridors of his clubs, going from table to table, buttonholing the dwindling number of guests, monologuing relentlessly until they squirm away.

 

['stache 21,597]

19 minutes ago, mdmost said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html

 

Yeah, I wouldn’t call people who let him go on stage with Black journalists and say that Kamala magically turned Black as remotely talented. Maybe use all that talent to tell him to stop being overtly racist?

He has no fucking policy! Zero! None! The closest he has is Project 2025. How about, again, using all that talent to have someone other than theocrats write him a some policy and train him like a circus animal to just say it a few times here and there? 

These aren’t talented campaign people, they are Trump sycophants who just like being around him all the time.

Edited August 14 by 'stache

[Bozo_Casanova 25,949]

35 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

How could I have never seen or heard of this American Classic?

Maybe you didn’t have Showtime or masturbate in the mid 1980’s

[aggie08 20,550]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I was talking with my wife’s cousin from Beaumont about this kind of thing. Essentially, fundamentalist evangelicals see Donald Trump as anointed- like a Cyrus or King David. He’s not a Godly man so much as he is God’s instrument. 

Evangelicals are fucking awful people, example #4,763,982

[DDD Dad 14,078]

18 hours ago, mdmost said:

No, no. You guys are being too sensitive. They're not saying black people and Hispanic people who are American will invade your neighborhood under Kamala. They're saying it's black and Hispanic migrants who will invade your neighborhood under Kamala. Totally not racist....

 

[Goredho 17,197]

6 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I was talking with my wife’s cousin from Beaumont about this kind of thing. Essentially, fundamentalist evangelicals see Donald Trump as anointed- like a Cyrus or King David. He’s not a Godly man so much as he is God’s instrument. 

Same.  "The Lord works in mysterious ways!"  The baptist side of my family would vote for Pontius Pilate if he had an R by his name.

[Kel Varnsen 8,327]

9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Maybe you didn’t have Showtime or masturbate in the mid 1980’s

We were an HBO family.

[Red Five 40,456]

Just now, Goredho said:

Same.  "The Lord works in mysterious ways!"  The baptist side of my family would vote for Pontius Pilate if he had an R by his name.

Same. Best I can figure it's a coping mechanism. A part of their brain knows how wrong this all is, but they've been conditioned to only vote for the (R). 

[Hank Kingsley 20,177]

 

[Js1 83,903]

Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

 

Oh okay

['stache 21,597]

Soros should pay RFK a ton of money to campaign solely in Florida.

[DigglerontheHoof 20,610]

39 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Not the best ad I’ve seen but it could be effective 

 

That's libtard, cuck Jesus. 

This is American Jesus:

[Loch Ness Monster 3,529]

2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Same. Best I can figure it's a coping mechanism. A part of their brain knows how wrong this all is, but they've been conditioned to only vote for the (R). 

Many Americans treat politics as a sport. Same reason fans stay loyal to a shitty team year after year. Grew up on the red team so by golly gotta stick with them.

[Kel Varnsen 8,327]

T-shirt Republicans

[Left Coast 862]

Not that this is a surprise but the latest Berkeley Institute/LA Times poll came out for California.

Harris 59%
Trump 34%
 

Margin is +7% over where Biden was earlier this year. Huge gains among the young, Black, Latino and independent voters. 
 

What bodes well in other states:

The Berkeley poll delivered another piece of good news for Democrats — showing that people who don’t belong to a political party and those who describe themselves as moderates favor Harris at significantly higher levels than they did Biden. Moderates in California said they would pick the Democratic nominee by 59% to 31% over Trump. That puts Harris 12 percentage points ahead of where Biden stood in February, the poll found. And among nonpartisan voters, the poll showed a stout advantage for Harris, with 62% of California independents saying they support the vice president, a 17-point improvement over Biden’s standing in February.
 

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-08-14/poll-harris-and-walz-build-huge-lead-among-likely-california-voters

[Goredho 17,197]

3 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Many Americans treat politics as a sport. Same reason fans stay loyal to a shitty team year after year. Grew up on the red team so by golly gotta stick with them.

I think the Americans we're talking about grew up Christian and have found a new team religion.

[Pancho 43,093]

11 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

[Firemans4Horn 17,325]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

Why did they just release polls that were taken between July 26th and August 2nd? 
 

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5,328]

14 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

This chick fucking rules

[South Austin 51,704]

19 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

We were an HBO family.

Do you fapped to Fraggle Rock?

[The Dog 43,494]

58 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Not the best ad I’ve seen but it could be effective 

 

It's very good for the target audience. It just needs to reach them. 

This is EXACTLY what they should be running IMHO. 

Remember it doesn't need to make a Trump voter switch in order to be successful - only for them to sit this one out.

[Js1 83,903]

29 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

Scott +4 on DMP (47-43) - Scott running 3 points behind Trump in the H2H.  He usually wins his races super close
Amendments are both at 56-21, so room to hit 60 still with undecided voters

Edited August 14 by Js1

[BrickHorn 18,078]

37 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Essentially, fundamentalist evangelicals see Donald Trump as anointed- like a Cyrus

Can you dig it?

[SydneyCarton 47,521]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Not the best ad I’ve seen but it could be effective 

 

That first part looks like fucking AI. 

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

You may have to settle for the UO parent milfs. I’m not going to be the creeper sneaking pics of incoming freshman.

No one said they had to be Freshman. Upperclassman are fine, dude. 

38 minutes ago, 'stache said:

 

Yeah, I wouldn’t call people who let him go on stage with Black journalists and say that Kamala magically turned Black as remotely talented. Maybe use all that talent to tell him to stop being overtly racist?

He has no fucking policy! Zero! None! The closest he has is Project 2025. How about, again, using all that talent to have someone other than theocrats write him a some policy and train him like a circus animal to just say it a few times here and there? 

These aren’t talented campaign people, they are Trump sycophants who just like being around him all the time.

YOure overthinking this. His stump speech will just be hitting HER policies. Not his. "______________ was horrible. I would fix all that." 

16 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

Not that this is a surprise but the latest Berkeley Institute/LA Times poll came out for California.

Harris 59%
Trump 34%
 

Margin is +7% over where Biden was earlier this year. Huge gains among the young, Black, Latino and independent voters. 
 

What bodes well in other states:

The Berkeley poll delivered another piece of good news for Democrats — showing that people who don’t belong to a political party and those who describe themselves as moderates favor Harris at significantly higher levels than they did Biden. Moderates in California said they would pick the Democratic nominee by 59% to 31% over Trump. That puts Harris 12 percentage points ahead of where Biden stood in February, the poll found. And among nonpartisan voters, the poll showed a stout advantage for Harris, with 62% of California independents saying they support the vice president, a 17-point improvement over Biden’s standing in February.
 

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-08-14/poll-harris-and-walz-build-huge-lead-among-likely-california-voters

Everyone keeps talking about trust, moderates, blah blah. At the end of the day, ALL this is was people thought biden was too fucking old. That's it. 

[The Dog 43,494]

Monmouth dropping at the top of the hour.

 

[The Dog 43,494]

 

[SydneyCarton 47,521]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

 

I was hoping for a lot more than 2% nationally. 

[Gatorubet 29,797]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Oh c’mon, Nevada!

Quote

New Cook Political/BSG/GS Strategy polls, July 26-Aug 2

Calmate amigo!!

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5,328]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I was hoping for a lot more than 2% nationally. 

national polls are basically worthless thanks to the EC tho. It's not a popular vote, so polling nationally makes little sense. In the places where it really matters, Kamala is basically winning them all by 3-5 points, except Georgia where Trump has a 1 point lead down from 7. Kamala doesn't need to win every one of those battleground states, just a few, but it's trending really well for her in all of them.

Edited August 14 by WelfareBuysMyWeed

['stache 21,597]

Just now, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

national polls are basically worthless thanks to the EC tho. It's not a popular vote, so polling nationally makes little sense. In the places where it really matters, Kamala is basically winning them all by 3-5 points, except Georgia where Trump has a 1 point lead down from 7.

I hope so. I think it's likely that political shitholes like Texoma have people doubling down on their bullshit which ultimately won't matter. I'm surprised at Harris gains in North Carolina, that's what makes me feel optimistic.