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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think it's difficult to call some of these states until you see what the net migration was post-Covid. Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Texas all had net migration in people from California, New York, and other Northern states. If it's anything like we've seen in Texas, it's not people coming to make the states more blue. I could see Nevada flipping as well. 

NV was not a fascist recruitment like Abbott and DeSantis though, Nevada is also probably the most urban+suburban state I can think of, only 7.4% is rural, I think a GOTV campaign can be very efficient at targeting the votes.

That said Masto won by only 8000 votes, it is trending red but it is my prediction for the closest state result.

Edited by linux
Posted
11 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I saw an interview with Carville a week ago and he thought NV was the most likely Republican flip but NC was the most likely Dem flip from last time

That's pretty much been the CW for a while, but NV is a tough nut for the GOP to crack.  Polling has sucked because not every polling outfit will do a Spanish option and they can't find a way to get the overnight shift workers.

I mean, they were pretty wrong in 2010 (Reid won), 2016 (Hillary won), 2018 (Rosen won easily) and 2022 (CCM won)

Posted
3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I suspect that may be true.  The Democratic refugees from CA moved to Phoenix, Denver, etc.  The right leaning types seem to have moved to TX, OKC, etc.  On the East Coast, I would assume the MAGA Warrior Patriots moved to FL.  Not sure who moved to NC....?

NC and Georgia are economic migrants which is why they are flipping. TX and FL are MAGA warriors fleeing there, AZ is retirees but they have their maverick pride, NV I have no idea.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I suspect that may be true.  The Democratic refugees from CA moved to Phoenix, Denver, etc.  The right leaning types seem to have moved to TX, OKC, etc.  On the East Coast, I would assume the MAGA Warrior Patriots moved to FL.  Not sure who moved to NC....?

Anecdotal, but I know numerous liberals from Texas/the South that have moved to NC in recent years.  Seems almost like an East Coast Colorado in that it's a logical migration spot for folks looking to move away from red states.

Posted
4 hours ago, Kel Varnsen said:

How could I have never seen or heard of this American Classic?

It was my introduction to environmental activism 

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Posted
10 hours ago, cmontexas said:

Sean O'Brien won his election for Teamsters president by appealing to Maga Teamsters.

There's alot of them, which doesn't make sense; but does when you consider that a majority of Teamsters are uneducated, and have lots of break time to spend watching conspiracy videos on YouTube that their stay home wives send them

I've encountered a number of MAGA union members, primarily IBEW members. In my opinion, the unions do a shitty job of waging class warfare by just allowing so many of their members to fall for the classic divide and conquer tactic.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That's pretty much been the CW for a while, but NV is a tough nut for the GOP to crack.  Polling has sucked because not every polling outfit will do a Spanish option and they can't find a way to get the overnight shift workers.

I mean, they were pretty wrong in 2010 (Reid won), 2016 (Hillary won), 2018 (Rosen won easily) and 2022 (CCM won)

Also, with NV, I would assume if Harris has the Hispanic vote to win AZ then she'd also have it to win NV.

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Posted
2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Guys, it's a parody. California doesn't have 54 districts. 

...and there is also no such thing as "Scotchtoberfest"

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I would flip NV to blue, NC to yellow and then totally agree with that. 

NV flipping red and NC flipping blue in the same election - no way the shattered dreams of the GOP in 2016/2020 and the Dems in 2016/2020 happens in the same election. 

Yeah, looking like 319-219 to me...GA and NC both go blue with NC the only change vs last time.  If Trump really implodes Ds could maybe bring OH into play.  I just don't see it for FL or TX.

It's worth pointing out that the shuffling with the 2020 census means that a repeat of Biden's 306-232 map would tighten to 303-235.

Posted
3 hours ago, Blotto said:

CNN out there pushing the boundaries of political thought, again. Twelve moves ahead of everyone else. 

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Timid incompetents. He still denies the last election, dumbasses.

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2 hours ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

So the campaign has no resources or field offices anymore and now will have to spend time and money defending previously "in the bag" EVs.  Nice.

Trump's consolation prize will be keeping his customer base intact. He'll evidently shock CNN by saying he was robbed. All new merch for the all new whine. 

 

2 hours ago, 'stache said:

Donold’s unwavering 43% seriously pisses me the fuck off. He’s not even fucking campaigning anymore.

This is our concern.

Posted
2 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

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Yay, boomers! 

Not so much white men, but yay female boomers!

I didn't get my degree in math, but not winning any age range doesn't bode well for Trump. At least for the national vote, which counts for squat.

Posted
13 minutes ago, WBT said:

It's worth pointing out that the shuffling with the 2020 census means that a repeat of Biden's 306-232 map would tighten to 303-235.

Well if they couldn't overturn a 74 EV loss, a 68 EV loss will definitely be overturnable! 

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Posted

Way to go Nancy, but she's also the most to blame for the ossified, octogenarian wing of the Dem party that is largely responsible for the tone-deaf and ineffective performance of a party that finds its policies overwhelmingly supported by the American people, and yet incapable of winning elections on those issues.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Some with JFK, supposedly. 

Classy.

 

4 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Way to go Nancy, but she's also the most to blame for the ossified, octogenarian wing of the Dem party that is largely responsible for the tone-deaf and ineffective performance of a party that finds its policies overwhelmingly supported by the American people, and yet incapable of winning elections on those issues.

OMG! She's not perfect!

Yes, she's part of the old ways that are being shed. She has set up the world where those ways can be shed and a new way to emerge. Pretty good fucking contribution for an octogenarian. She pushed out the ossifying candidate. 

It's not something I'll likely be able to pull off in my 80s.

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Posted
5 hours ago, Kel Varnsen said:

How could I have never seen or heard of this American Classic?

On a site note, check out White Fire, another classic from the era, with incest, fluffy 80s hair, Fred Williamson, Belinda Mayne (at her peak) Robert Ginty (at his peak)

NSFW

Spoiler

 

 

back to the thread.

Posted

 

6 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Classy.

 

OMG! She's not perfect!

Yes, she's part of the old ways that are being shed. She has set up the world where those ways can be shed and a new way to emerge. Pretty good fucking contribution for an octogenarian. She pushed out the ossifying candidate. 

It's not something I'll likely be able to pull off in my 80s.

Prior to the Harris switch, this board (rightfully) spent the last 8-10 years complaining about the National Dem's ineffectiveness, failure to respond, inability to push a coherent message, and negligent ground game. 

So yes, I believe she deserves criticism for the way the National Democratic Party has handled the last decade. Sorry that touched a nerve.

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Posted
19 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

I'm so glad I found this again.

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5 hours ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

This chick fucking rules

She really does and she seems like the type to have her shit together.  She'd have your back if a fight broke out at the bowling alley, and I mean that in only the most positive of ways.

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Posted
5 hours ago, Goredho said:

Same.  "The Lord works in mysterious ways!"  The baptist side of my family would vote for Pontius Pilate if he had an R by his name.

I said the same thing to my mom. About her. Except I said she’d vote for Lucifer himself. 

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Posted
5 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

The interview also cast light on the discipline and strategy that has guided the reintroduction of Harris to the voting public. Harris ran for president in 2019–20 without igniting much enthusiasm. As vice president, she made little impact on governance. She campaigned hard in the 2022 midterms. Yet the groups she was supposed to excite—young people, Black Americans, women, and white female college graduates—posted generally lower turnout rates after her 2022 appeals than they did in the midterms of 2018. Before this summer, she was not widely regarded as a political star.

I don't know if the other candidates (including Harris) in 2020 really merit a discussion - it was always going to be Biden in my view.  It felt like "we can't have Obama for a third term, but let's get his VP, Biden!" I could be wrong, frequently am, and I admit to not paying too much attention to the early 2020 primaries, but it just always felt to me like it had to be Biden.

The Republicans and some of the left keep harping on her performance in 2020 and claim she was lackluster and boring, but does it really matter what her campaign was like in 2020 if here in 2024, she's getting people excited and hitting all the right notes?

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Posted
3 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

This will move the needle with Gen Z. It has the Ted Cruz seal of approval.

 
3 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This will be popular with all the boomers on Facebook and literally nobody else.  

They put Musk's head on the Black guy's body.  I'm sure Musk would be thrilled with that.

 

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