Jump to content

2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
in Cloak Room

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 55.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Js1

    3869

  • Pancho

    1224

  • tx 3 putt

    1191

  • Red Five

    1004

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Chult86
Chult86

I don't post all that often, though don't mistake that for not enjoying this board's discourse, OUsucks/Texags point and laughs, and quality original content on a frequent basis. I haven't felt t

Clintonaldo
Clintonaldo

Just had an interesting conversation with wife. Her: Hey Wednesday I need you to pick our son up Me: ok but be home by 4 because I am going to Chili’s for some internet friends. Her: You are mee

ConferenceRoom
ConferenceRoom

A conversation with my wife: ”We have to go to Chili’s when Kamala wins.” ”…Why?” ”Because that’s what Surly is doing.” ”We have to go to Chili’s because of Surly.” “Yes.”

Posted Images

mdmost

mdmost 42515

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Donold’s unwavering 43% seriously pisses me the fuck off. He’s not even fucking campaigning anymore.

I'm not saying those 43% of Americans are racists and/or misogynists who would never vote for a black woman...but maybe. 

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Dog

The Dog 43494

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Donold’s unwavering 43% seriously pisses me the fuck off. He’s not even fucking campaigning anymore.

You need to understand that the vast majority of voters are "low information" and aren't following this stuff nearly as closely as we do. There's about a 35-40% "floor" on both sides that will vote Red or Blue team no matter what. Even Nixon had a 25% approval after Watergate and that was without Newsmax, FoxNews, etc pumping out bullshit to prop him up.

1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

unhinged Trump post in 3….2….1…

"Fake polls" is already trending. 

  • Hook 'Em 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 38917

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The original videos were produced by a VERY litigious combination cult/social media management company* called 7M. Don’t be surprised if they sue, but more importantly the kids have turned against them- those were popular like 12-18 months ago but nobody cares now. It’s as dated for Gen Z as doing a “whazzup?” thing would be for Gen X, with an added taint of toxic brand association. 
 

 

* serious, there’s a documentary about it.
 

Gen Z is the tech industry of people. What is popular and cutting edge 1 month is 3 years old 2 months later.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13329

Posted
Posted

Arizona and Missouri recently announced that abortion/reproductive rights will be on the 2024 ballot. They join FL, NV, CO, MD, NY and SD. NE and MT are considering it, meaning the GOP is fighting to prevent it. Not good for Trump in some of these states.

I've given up on FL to flip blue for a while, but Rick Scott is polling poorly for a GOP FL incumbent in a red state. +4 in the only recent polls of likely voters. When he first won in 2018, the polling was neck and neck with incumbent Bill Nelson. The polling proved to be accurate in that Rick only won by 10K votes out of 8m ballots cast.

Rick Scott is the Ted Cruz of Florida. Hopefully with Trump and abortion on the ballot, FL will send Rick Scott packing. 

  • Hook 'Em 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 83931

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I can't find the tweet or video now but I saw that Harris/Walz is making headway in uneducated white males. 

it was posted a page or 2 back. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
linux

linux 1380

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

national polls are basically worthless thanks to the EC tho. It's not a popular vote, so polling nationally makes little sense. In the places where it really matters, Kamala is basically winning them all by 3-5 points, except Georgia where Trump has a 1 point lead down from 7. Kamala doesn't need to win every one of those battleground states, just a few, but it's trending really well for her in all of them.

No, national polls are very very good at predicting final results as long as a certain margin was crossed (say Kamala +5), state polls are horrifically unreliable, I have seen like 7 point swings in final state polls but never to that level in national polls. That said B+ is pretty mediocre.

If Kamala cements her 5% nationally I can at least breathe better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 83931

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Trump/RNC just set up a field office in Omaha. Also, they are making a late push to change to winner-take-all.

https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/13/nebraska-bound-harris-running-mate-tim-walz-to-visit-2nd-district/

I hope this helps Vargas win the seat.

They can try, but they lack the votes.  Omaha doesn't want to become irrelevant. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52120

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

They can try, but they lack the votes.  Omaha doesn't want to become irrelevant. 

What does the EV map look like if all EVs were broken down by district? Or region, however Maine and NE do it. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
aggie08

aggie08 20551

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Pelosi is pretty good at politics, more news at 10.

But also Pelosi:

"But I'M not too old. Don't put in the newspaper that I got too old."

  • Like 1
  • Haha 9
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 83931

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

What does the EV map look like if all EVs were broken down by district?

Here's 2020

https://www.270towin.com/news/2021/01/13/first-look-2020-presidential-election-all-states-voted-like-maine-nebraska_1144.html

But as we know, gerrymandering makes this stupid as hell.  Unless Congress outlawed partisan gerrymandering, it should never happen. 

  • Hook 'Em 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 83931

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I would flip NV to blue, NC to yellow and then totally agree with that. 

NV flipping red and NC flipping blue in the same election - no way the shattered dreams of the GOP in 2016/2020 and the Dems in 2016/2020 happens in the same election. 

Edited by Js1
  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Red Five

Red Five 40456

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I would flip NV to blue, NC to yellow and then totally agree with that. 

NV flipping red and NC flipping blue in the same election - no way the shattered dreams of the GOP in 2016/2020 and the Dems in 2016/2020 happens in the same election. 

Fine with me. Add Georgia and that's 313 for Harris (until the Supreme Court decides that Harris wasn't actually eligible in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and NC). 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 83931

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Fine with me. Add Georgia and that's 313 for Harris (until the Supreme Court decides that Harris wasn't actually eligible in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and NC). 

Kamala can just declare herself winner. Donald said so

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bolverk

bolverk 29117

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

What does the EV map look like if all EVs were broken down by district? Or region, however Maine and NE do it. 

 

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Here's 2020

https://www.270towin.com/news/2021/01/13/first-look-2020-presidential-election-all-states-voted-like-maine-nebraska_1144.html

But as we know, gerrymandering makes this stupid as hell.  Unless Congress outlawed partisan gerrymandering, it should never happen. 

Different site but with a map.

They also have a link to ArcGIS, but I can't get it to load.  

image.thumb.png.178751293966bfa29e36042284e3da04.png

 

Daily Kos put this one together using 2024 districts but 2020 data. It's better at visualizing the balance, instead of hiding some that are in dense cities.

ETA: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/14/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020

image.png.c0eca7a934a58e648f137754a51770ff.png

 

Edited by bolverk
  • Hook 'Em 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tuco

Tuco 5059

Posted
Posted
They can try, but they lack the votes.  Omaha doesn't want to become irrelevant. 

I agree. And Pillen just failed to pass a shitty real estate tax reform, so isn’t great at twisting arms. Having Trump and MAGA try, particularly this late, is going to piss off moderate Republicans and independents. It could also cause additional fighting between the pub state party and county party. The state party is all MAGA and refused to endorse the 4-term incumbent NE2 Congressman months ago.
  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14280

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I saw an interview with Carville a week ago and he thought NV was the most likely Republican flip but NC was the most likely Dem flip from last time.  He said each state leans the other way more than the national people realize.  He could be right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mdmost

mdmost 42515

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I saw an interview with Carville a week ago and he thought NV was the most likely Republican flip but NC was the most likely Dem flip from last time.  He said each state leans the other way more than the national people realize.  He could be right.

I think it's difficult to call some of these states until you see what the net migration was post-Covid. Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Texas all had net migration in people from California, New York, and other Northern states. If it's anything like we've seen in Texas, it's not people coming to make the states more blue. I could see Nevada flipping as well. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25690

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I saw an interview with Carville a week ago and he thought NV was the most likely Republican flip but NC was the most likely Dem flip from last time.  He said each state leans the other way more than the national people realize.  He could be right.

He smells like a fucking corn dog, but he's usually right.

39 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

But also Pelosi:

"But I'M not too old. Don't put in the newspaper that I got too old."

At least she stepped down from leadership. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14280

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think it's difficult to call some of these states until you see what the net migration was post-Covid. Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Texas all had net migration in people from California, New York, and other Northern states. If it's anything like we've seen in Texas, it's not people coming to make the states more blue. I could see Nevada flipping as well. 

I suspect that may be true.  The Democratic refugees from CA moved to Phoenix, Denver, etc.  The right leaning types seem to have moved to TX, OKC, etc.  On the East Coast, I would assume the MAGA Warrior Patriots moved to FL.  Not sure who moved to NC....?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
linux

linux 1380

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think it's difficult to call some of these states until you see what the net migration was post-Covid. Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Texas all had net migration in people from California, New York, and other Northern states. If it's anything like we've seen in Texas, it's not people coming to make the states more blue. I could see Nevada flipping as well. 

NV was not a fascist recruitment like Abbott and DeSantis though, Nevada is also probably the most urban+suburban state I can think of, only 7.4% is rural, I think a GOTV campaign can be very efficient at targeting the votes.

That said Masto won by only 8000 votes, it is trending red but it is my prediction for the closest state result.

Edited by linux
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 83931

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I saw an interview with Carville a week ago and he thought NV was the most likely Republican flip but NC was the most likely Dem flip from last time

That's pretty much been the CW for a while, but NV is a tough nut for the GOP to crack.  Polling has sucked because not every polling outfit will do a Spanish option and they can't find a way to get the overnight shift workers.

I mean, they were pretty wrong in 2010 (Reid won), 2016 (Hillary won), 2018 (Rosen won easily) and 2022 (CCM won)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
linux

linux 1380

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I suspect that may be true.  The Democratic refugees from CA moved to Phoenix, Denver, etc.  The right leaning types seem to have moved to TX, OKC, etc.  On the East Coast, I would assume the MAGA Warrior Patriots moved to FL.  Not sure who moved to NC....?

NC and Georgia are economic migrants which is why they are flipping. TX and FL are MAGA warriors fleeing there, AZ is retirees but they have their maverick pride, NV I have no idea.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22387

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I suspect that may be true.  The Democratic refugees from CA moved to Phoenix, Denver, etc.  The right leaning types seem to have moved to TX, OKC, etc.  On the East Coast, I would assume the MAGA Warrior Patriots moved to FL.  Not sure who moved to NC....?

Anecdotal, but I know numerous liberals from Texas/the South that have moved to NC in recent years.  Seems almost like an East Coast Colorado in that it's a logical migration spot for folks looking to move away from red states.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
F250

F250 28556

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, cmontexas said:

Sean O'Brien won his election for Teamsters president by appealing to Maga Teamsters.

There's alot of them, which doesn't make sense; but does when you consider that a majority of Teamsters are uneducated, and have lots of break time to spend watching conspiracy videos on YouTube that their stay home wives send them

I've encountered a number of MAGA union members, primarily IBEW members. In my opinion, the unions do a shitty job of waging class warfare by just allowing so many of their members to fall for the classic divide and conquer tactic.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14280

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That's pretty much been the CW for a while, but NV is a tough nut for the GOP to crack.  Polling has sucked because not every polling outfit will do a Spanish option and they can't find a way to get the overnight shift workers.

I mean, they were pretty wrong in 2010 (Reid won), 2016 (Hillary won), 2018 (Rosen won easily) and 2022 (CCM won)

Also, with NV, I would assume if Harris has the Hispanic vote to win AZ then she'd also have it to win NV.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...