2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Huckleberry 34675]

That's not what each means, but it's still not a lot on a per state basis.

[Sawbonz 28228]

14 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

It’s going to be a blood bath 

[Aqua Buddha 14807]

2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

It’s going to be a blood bath 

Yeah, she’s going to win all of the swing states.  (PA, MI, WS, NC, GA, AZ, and NV.)

Trump getting thrashed will be the best thing to happen for the Republican Party.

[Hiphopopotamos 21191]

 

[mdmost 44063]

That's a lot of fire for day 1. The bench is very strong. I hope Uncle Joe gets a nice long standing ovation. What a service he did for his country. 

[tbone_ 14451]

 

This has to be fake. Fox didn’t really show that on their broadcast did they?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

52 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

blatant lies about someone that is 50,000,000 americans favorite person is a very very good idea.  difficult to beat talking crowd size smack against MLK last week, but this just might do it.  next? 

 

 

[Hank Kingsley 21789]

12 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Trump getting thrashed will be the best thing to happen for the Republican Party.

Trump getting thrashed will be the best thing to happen for our country. 

The Republican Party is unsalvageable. 

 

[tokamak 6687]

11 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, she’s going to win all of the swing states.  (PA, MI, WS, NC, GA, AZ, and NV.)

Trump getting thrashed will be the best thing to happen for the Republican Party.

I've been playing with 270toWin this morning and it seems to me like it all comes down to WI, MI, and PA. If Kamala wins those three, she wins. If Trump wins one (or more) of them, he wins.

[Red Five 41747]

2 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I've been playing with 270toWin this morning and it seems to me like it all comes down to WI, MI, and PA. If Kamala wins those three, she wins. If Trump wins one (or more) of them, he wins.

Spoiler: She's winning those states. 

[Js1 87189]

Just now, tokamak said:

I've been playing with 270toWin this morning and it seems to me like it all comes down to WI, MI, and PA. If Kamala wins those three, she wins. If Trump wins one (or more) of them, he wins.

Um, that's not true.  Go look at that CNN video someone posted

Harris can win WI, MI, PA + NE-02 and win the election
She can win NC, GA, AZ, NV, NE-02 and lose all the blue wall states and still win
She can win WI, MI, NE-02, NV, AZ and would only need 1 of GA/NC to win
She can win PA, WI, NV, AZ and win

Even if Trump wins all 3 of WI, MI, PA, he has to still win one of NC, AZ or GA.  Even adding in NV doesn't get him there (269) unless he wins NE-02

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 minute ago, tokamak said:

I've been playing with 270toWin this morning and it seems to me like it all comes down to WI, MI, and PA. If Kamala wins those three, she wins. If Trump wins one (or more) of them, he wins.

Yeah, everyone reports PA as the most likely tipping point state, and I think that is right.  If it goes Kamala, she'll have plenty of votes.  If not, the shifts in the other states seem to unlikely to give her the win.

[aggie08 21825]

15 minutes ago, mdmost said:

That's a lot of fire for day 1. The bench is very strong. I hope Uncle Joe gets a nice long standing ovation. What a service he did for his country. 

While heartfelt, you know that's gotta irk him a little. The mostly popular, widely celebrated thing he's done as President was to begrudgingly agree to not try to stay the President.

[C-Man 27783]

4 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I've been playing with 270toWin this morning and it seems to me like it all comes down to WI, MI, and PA. If Kamala wins those three, she wins. If Trump wins one (or more) of them, he wins.

CNN has an interactive map too.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2024-PG-CNN-ratings&game-view=map

If you just go strictly off the Political Polls numbers above -- Trump getting Arizona and Georgia and Kamala getting the rest -- it's a 291-246 win for the Democrats.

[MissingInAction 25559]

I had a vivid dream last night that I was watching the votes come in as state after state went blue. 

Hope I didn't just Helo the election.

[aggie08 21825]

12 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Trump getting thrashed will be the best thing to happen for our country. 

The Republican Party is unsalvageable. 

 

I think he was implying that a Trump blowout has the potential to implode the Republican Party...which is the best thing for the Republican Party.

[tokamak 6687]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Um, that's not true.  Go look at that CNN video someone posted

Harris can win WI, MI, PA + NE-02 and win the election
She can win NC, GA, AZ, NV, NE-02 and lose all the blue wall states and still win
She can win WI, MI, NE-02, NV, AZ and would only need 1 of GA/NC to win
She can win PA, WI, NV, AZ and win

Even if Trump wins all 3 of WI, MI, PA, he has to still win one of NC, AZ or GA.  Even adding in NV doesn't get him there (269) unless he wins NE-02

I can't see a world in which Trump wins one of WI/MI/PA but loses at least one of NV/AZ/GA. If he grabs a midwestern state, he's already gotten the sun belt states.

NC is fool's gold in my opinion. Not necessary anyway. I wouldn't waste time there if I was the Dems, unless they're just bored or something.

What post was the CNN video? I miss a lot of shit in these threads because my work network blocks Twitter embeds.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6597]

I find it strange that states like PA and MI both have Dem Governors and 2 Dem Senators meaning the Dems win the statewide elections but could vote for a Republican for President.  Maybe this is common, but it seems strange to me especially when I live in TX where I could never see this state voting for a Republican governor and 2 senators but going Democrat for the presidency.  Maybe I am missing something with PA and MI.  I think the state most likely to go to Trump out of the Blue Wall is WI.  

[Js1 87189]

Just now, tokamak said:

NC is fool's gold in my opinion. Not necessary anyway. I wouldn't waste time there if I was the Dems, unless they're just bored or something.

 

Polling says otherwise.  It was the closest red state in 2020 (< 100,000 votes) and there's an extremely unpopular GOP governor nominee that could drag down Trump.  In fact, if NC flips, Trump basically loses any path, because there's not a lot of places for him to make up those 15 EVs and if NC flips, GA is staying blue. 

[SydneyCarton 49508]

I suppose I'm the only one who's nervous that poll after poll seems to see PA stubborninly stick at around 1% for Harris. It's almost weird. It doesn't seem to be showing the upward momentum for Harris that we're seeing in other states. It just sits there at one percent. 

[Js1 87189]

6 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I had a vivid dream last night that I was watching the votes come in as state after state went blue. 

Hope I didn't just Helo the election.

I had a similar dream.  It was like a 2x speed of the next 2+ months and Kamala was starting to get into that Obama 2008 territory were she was going to win the popular vote by 7-9 points.  

[Pato del Muerto 53517]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I suppose I'm the only one who's nervous that poll after poll seems to see PA stubborninly stick at around 1% for Harris. It's almost weird. It doesn't seem to be showing the upward momentum for Harris that we're seeing in other states. It just sits there at one percent. 

It’s because the Amish don’t answer their phones or click on web surveys. 

[Js1 87189]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I suppose I'm the only one who's nervous that poll after poll seems to see PA stubborninly stick at around 1% for Harris. It's almost weird. It doesn't seem to be showing the upward momentum for Harris that we're seeing in other states. It just sits there at one percent. 

NYT/Siena was +4, F&M was +3, Bullfinch was +4, Quinnipiac was +3

[Fudge Nuggets 19456]

2 hours ago, Chopper said:

Tomorrow. Taylor Swift?

 

 

Also y'all going on about AI, be a mensch and take it to the fuckin AI thread. /s

You don’t make Taylor Swift a “surprise”.  No one is watching this shit on its own merit so she would be announced ahead of time to draw eyeballs.

[Hank Kingsley 21789]

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

I think he was implying that a Trump blowout has the potential to implode the Republican Party...which is the best thing for the Republican Party.

Right, but there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the Republican Party. The entire apparatus and engine has been taken over by extremists. This didn't start with Trump (Reagan and Limbaugh did the initial dirty work), but to unfuck what they've become is pretty much impossible.  Classic conservatives or the psycho Trumpers will need to break off into a third party in order to create anything normal with a second party. Hopefully it will happen, but it would take decades. 

 

 

 

 

[Js1 87189]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Right, but there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the Republican Party. The entire apparatus and engine has been taken over by extremists. This didn't start with Trump (Reagan and Limbaugh did the initial dirty work), but to unfuck what they've become is pretty much impossible.  Classic conservatives or the psycho Trumpers will need to break off into a third party in order to create anything normal with a second party. Hopefully it will happen, but it would take decades. 

 

 

 

 

Yep.  Look, if the GOP decides to jettison Trump for someone "normal" like a Rubio, Haley, Kemp, etc. - they will lose the entire MAGA movement.  If they just pick a different MAGA, like Hawley, Marge, Cruz, etc., they will just continue to alienate the normies who are already voting for the Dems. 

Unfortunately, I don't see how 2026 is anything but a fractured GOP.  I say this honestly, but the GOP is better off just laying low in 2026 rather than implode into civil war. If Trump loses and the try to completely un-Trump the GOP, he will ensure the GOP has an abysmal 2026 election in the House and Senate.

[Bullneck 19540]

1 hour ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

 

Gerald Ford on a woman becoming President. Solid prediction.

 

 

[Chopper 17432]

12 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

You don’t make Taylor Swift a “surprise”.  No one is watching this shit on its own merit so she would be announced ahead of time to draw eyeballs.

Personally I don't gaf if TS appears or not but this is a dumb take unless you're unfamiliar with the immediacy of social media posts. People aren't looking at tv guide to plan when they want to tune in. 

I posted about it because someone earlier in the thread mentioned that Taylor did an unusual "20" signal at her last concert. Tomorrow is the 20th. Tomorrow is also music/party day with surprise guests. We'll see. If she dropped a mention on insta about see you in 30 minutes on tv, it would blow up on social media. Just sayin'.

Edited August 19 by Chopper
odd --> unusual

[WhatTheBuck 28931]

34 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I've been playing with 270toWin this morning and it seems to me like it all comes down to WI, MI, and PA.

STOP THE PRESSES!!! 

[tokamak 6687]

Just now, WhatTheBuck said:

STOP THE PRESSES!!! 

Cutting edge analysis, I know.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2891]

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Unfortunately, I don't see how 2026 is anything but a fractured GOP.

 

[shakahorn 1658]

4 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Why are they protesting the DNC and not the RNC?  That’s where the Jews are.  Sorry, true.  

Not sure I understand what you're trying to say.  Jews are overwhelmingly Dems, or at least vote that way.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2891]

8 minutes ago, shakahorn said:

Not sure I understand what you're trying to say.  Jews are overwhelmingly Dems, or at least vote that way.

I live my life as if there were Jews lurking everywhere.

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

i understand that nothing on this site should be taken seriously, but even with that caveat, it's a bit of a head scratcher.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6597]

5 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

I live my life as if there were Jews lurking everywhere.

 

As well you should since they control the space lasers that can be used to annihilate you.

[David Dennison 19553]

1 hour ago, tokamak said:

I've been playing with 270toWin this morning and it seems to me like it all comes down to WI, MI, and PA. If Kamala wins those three, she wins. If Trump wins one (or more) of them, he wins.

Proving yet again that the way we elect a president is beyond dumb.

[Pancho 46330]

 

[WhatTheBuck 28931]

54 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I think he was implying that a Trump blowout has the potential to implode the Republican Party...which is the best thing for the Republican Party.

I don’t think just one decisive loss would do that. It would help to end the political career of Donald Trump but even that isn’t guaranteed. To force the Republican Party to reform and join the 21st  century, I think it’s going to take at least a second Harris/Walz term and maybe even the Dems retaining power in 2032. 

[Pato del Muerto 53517]

3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

The Rs think this is Kanye don’t they

[mdmost 44063]

Does anyone outside of "libertarians" who watch Bill Maher give a shit about Cornell West?

[cactusflinthead 27627]

1 hour ago, tbone_ said:

This has to be fake. Fox didn’t really show that on their broadcast did they?

Well, I wasn't watching it so... maybe?

[lemonlime 5503]

29 minutes ago, shakahorn said:

Not sure I understand what you're trying to say.  Jews are overwhelmingly Dems, or at least vote that way.

I think he's saying that they're aiming their "protests" at Jews, but don't really give a fuck about the Palestinians.  Which is why they're protesting at the DNC, in which prominent Jews will be speaking (Schumer, Emhoff) and ignoring the Christian fundamentalists at the RNC who want to use Israelis and Palestinians to bring about the second coming.

[C-Man 27783]

59 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

You don’t make Taylor Swift a “surprise”.  No one is watching this shit on its own merit so she would be announced ahead of time to draw eyeballs.

Honestly, if she's willing to do anything for the Harris campaign you let her call the shots and do whatever the hell she wants.

 

13 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

I don’t think just one decisive loss would do that. It would help to end the political career of Donald Trump but even that isn’t guaranteed. To force the Republican Party to reform and join the 21st  century, I think it’s going to take at least a second Harris/Walz term and maybe even the Dems retaining power in 2032. 

I think knocking Trump off finally -- and hopefully, incarcerating him shortly after -- will forever kill off the MAGA movement, at least as a viable political force in this country. They've got nobody with Trump's starpower to pick up the torch and run with it. His base will become disinterested again.

[TeeDubya 3362]

1 hour ago, Firemans4Horn said:

they polled a total of 651 people across 7 states? Seems like way too small of a sample size to tell us much. 

From Pew:

For election surveys in particular, estimates that look at “likely voters” rely on models and predictions about who will turn out to vote that may also introduce error. Unlike sampling error, which can be calculated, these other sorts of error are much more difficult to quantify and are rarely reported. But they are present nonetheless, and polling consumers should keep them in mind when interpreting survey results.

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, she’s going to win all of the swing states.  (PA, MI, WS, NC, GA, AZ, and NV.)

Trump getting thrashed will be the best thing to happen for the Republican Party.

Fuck every one of those racist sycophants.  

[Biff Tannen 46169]

22 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

. To force the Republican Party to reform and join the 21st  century, I think it’s going to take at least a second Harris/Walz term and maybe even the Dems retaining power in 2032. 

And I'm fine with that.

[RDCanecutter 26898]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

Can confirm that Valdosta Georgia is the scrap-craziest US town I know of. I've got friends from there that you could get to start a brawl by asking what their favorite color is, and then they'll nurse the grievance for a few years. Almost Florida Man, just a hike from the Sunshine State border. 

[I typed and then deleted specific details of Valdostan weirdness I experienced, because I figure there is a non-zero chance some self-Googler would find it, track me down, and make me into a skin suit.]

 

[Radical Larry 28822]

3 hours ago, Bullneck said:

 

Furk

[Biff Tannen 46169]

4 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Can confirm that Valdosta Georgia is the scrap-craziest US town I know of. I've got friends from there that you could get to start a brawl by asking what their favorite color is, and then they'll nurse the grievance for a few years. Almost Florida Man, just a hike from the Sunshine State border. 

[I typed and then deleted specific details of Valdostan weirdness I experienced, because I figure there is a non-zero chance some self-Googler would find it, track me down, and make me into a skin suit.]

 

I think David Cross summed up Valdosta pretty well.

Quote

[On death & euthanasia] I think its funny how, that if I want to die with peace and dignity that there's someone far away that can prevent it. Someone's like [strong southern accent] 'Hi, I just wanted to call. This is Jeanette Dunwoody from Valdosta, Georgia. I heard that you're trying to kill yourself and I just wanna say that, well, you can't.' 'What?' 'Yeah, its not right, because all life is precious.' 'No, my life isn't precious, I've been reduced to a shit and piss factory. I hurt always. I'm going to die within a year and I'm in pain constantly.' 'Oh, but um...no. Because of the Bible.' 'Well, I don't believe in the Bible.' 'Well, I do, silly!' [Hangs up]

 

[4th&Five 42010]

 

[cactusflinthead 27627]