2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[chainsaw 9668]

2008 Counties won by Obama:

 

County	Barack Obama Democratic		John McCain Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Lake	139,301	66.64%	67,742	32.41%	1,996	0.95%	71,559	34.23%	209,039
Monroe	41,450	65.39%	21,118	33.32%	819	1.29%	20,332	32.07%	63,387
Marion	241,987	63.67%	134,313	35.34%	3,790	1.00%	107,674	28.33%	380,090
Perry	5,141	60.55%	3,202	37.71%	147	1.73%	1,939	22.84%	8,490
LaPorte	28,258	60.10%	17,918	38.11%	842	1.79%	10,340	21.99%	47,018
St. Joseph	68,710	57.87%	48,510	40.85%	1,519	1.28%	20,200	17.02%	118,739
Vigo	25,040	57.06%	18,121	41.29%	723	1.65%	6,919	15.77%	43,884
Delaware	28,384	56.80%	20,916	41.85%	676	1.36%	7,468	14.95%	49,976
Vermillion	4,003	56.10%	3,010	42.19%	122	1.71%	993	13.91%	7,135
Tippecanoe	37,781	55.05%	29,822	43.45%	1,033	1.50%	7,959	11.60%	68,636
Porter	39,178	52.77%	33,857	45.60%	1,211	1.63%	5,321	7.17%	74,246
Madison	30,152	52.49%	26,403	45.96%	889	1.55%	3,749	6.53%	57,444
Vanderburgh	39,423	50.60%	37,512	48.15%	978	1.26%	1,911	2.45%	77,913
Starke	4,778	50.41%	4,473	47.19%	228	2.41%	305	3.22%	9,479
Spencer	5,039	49.42%	5,001	49.05%	156	1.53%	38	0.37%	10,196

[Js1 83619]

Probably not.  That NW section of Indiana is basically a Chicago suburb and knew Obama very well. 

He also fucking destroyed McCain and Romney in Wisconsin, which probably gets a lot of shared media with Chicago. 

[G650 13334]

38 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

Oh?

 

https://www.dressedwell.net/threads/politics-and-menswear.2405/#post-178683

[Hank Kingsley 20147]

I am still stunned and pleased with how the Democratic Party has absolutely CRUSHED it since Biden dropped out. They are hitting on all cylinders everyday. 

Last night at the DNC was unbelievable. The production was top notch. When roll call started with the cheesy DJ, I think most of us groaned at first. But then you realized it was just a joyous and energetic occasion. They turned the most fucking boring party of a convention into a dance party. Incredible!

I'm not a rah rah Democrat. I've been very cynical about the party apparatus, particularly over the last 10 years. But I'm happy to admit their instincts are absolutely on point right now, and I get the feeling that it wasn't only Biden that stepped down a month ago. The old establishment finally let the younger generation take the reins within the party itself. And it's firing on all cylinders. Keep it up. This is amazing. 

 

 

Edited August 21 by Hank Kingsley

[Js1 83619]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

When roll call started with the cheesy DJ, I think most of us groaned at first. But then you realized it was just a joyous and energetic occasion.

The roll call has been and is supposed to be cheesy AF - it's basically 50+ little pep rallies to show off your state or territory.  It's usually the lamest part of the convention - look at this famous person or big name politico from our state while we recite some of our famous landmarks, foods, cultural icons, etc. 

It's just a chance for state delegations to flex a little and have a good time

[Chopper 16666]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I am still stunned and pleased with how the Democratic Party has absolutely CRUSHED it since Biden dropped out. They are hitting on all cylinders everyday. 

Last night at the DNC was unbelievable. The production was top notch. When roll call started with the cheesy DJ, I think most of us groaned at first. But then you realized it was just a joyous and energetic occasion. They turned the most fucking boring party of a convention into a dance party. Incredible!

I'm not a rah rah Democrat. I've been very cynical about the party apparatus, particularly over the last 10 years. But I'm happy to admit their instincts are absolutely on point right now, and I get the feeling that it wasn't only Biden that stepped down a month ago. The old establishment finally let the younger generation take the reigns within the party itself. And it's firing on all cylinders. Keep it up. This is amazing. 

Yeah I was thinking about first time convention watchers earlier this morning. There's never been a political convention anything like this. They're typically dreadfully boring with an exciting speech at the most. Their team put together not only a great night at the DNC on the most difficult and boring of nights (state roll call) but packed an arena all the way in Milwaukee where the candidates appeared.  

 

2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Oh so you want to go back? Interesting.

 

I feel like with how her campaign and messaging has been run so far we shouldn't worry about that. They seem in touch with the base and the bases they're trying to pull from the grasp of MAGA as it continues to ostracize itself further and further.

Yes they've been doing great. As @Tucopointed out it seemed spontaneous. From a messaging standpoint I'd prefer it be a positive message. During Michelle's speech last night, the spontaneous chant was, "Do Something." The audience is energized and looking to participate. I listened to KH last night in Mwk and to my ears, "Not going back" was heard too often...I'm already tired of it and I just worry she would benefit from a different rallying cry. All due deference to her incredible campaign team...they have been absolutely amazing so far. 

[The Dog 43482]

23 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I could be wrong, but I don’t think it was intended to be a slogan. It was a line from an early speech, the crowd started chanting it, and the campaign realized they hit a nerve.

It wasn't - it's become a rallying cry and it was totally organic. Never seen anything like it.

I think the "we're not going back" thing is a good pushback to the GOP. It's a chance to flip the narrative from the GOP being able to say "we can make it better" to the Democrats being able to say "no, they will make it worse - and they wrote a book on how they will do it (Project 2025)." The GOP wrote down exactly how they plan to govern and a lot of it is very unpopular.

That said, wet blanket time for the Democrats:

The Democrats have a lot of momentum right now, but inflation and a tighter job market still loom large over everyone's lives.

Yes, gouging is a thing and so is corporate greed, but all the average person knows is things are more expensive and it's harder to find a job. Inflation has slowed, but things are still more expensive and wages haven't kept up. Those are facts and voters need someone to blame. The Democrats were in the White House as that occurred and there isn't an easy counter like there is on immigration with Trump killing the border bill. 

The good news for the Democrats is that Trump and many of the GOP candidates are terrible and can't stay on message to save their lives - and it's easy to pull them offsides with psyops like filling their convention arena on the night of the "official" nomination. 

 

[immamac 41747]

5 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Yeah I was thinking about first time convention watchers earlier this morning. There's never been a political convention anything like this. They're typically dreadfully boring with an exciting speech at the most. Their team put together not only a great night at the DNC on the most difficult and boring of nights (state roll call) but packed an arena all the way in Milwaukee where the candidates appeared.  

 

Yes they've been doing great. As @Tucopointed out it seemed spontaneous. From a messaging standpoint I'd prefer it be a positive message. During Michelle's speech last night, the spontaneous chant was, "Do Something." The audience is energized and looking to participate. I listened to KH last night in Mwk and to my ears, "Not going back" was heard too often...I'm already tired of it and I just worry she would benefit from a different rallying cry. All due deference to her incredible campaign team...they have been absolutely amazing so far. 

I mean lil Jon yelled and got a chant going for we're not going back during his performance. I like we're not going back I don't think it's a bad rallying cry. 

[HenryJames 65563]

19 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I am still stunned and pleased with how the Democratic Party has absolutely CRUSHED it since Biden dropped out. They are hitting on all cylinders everyday. 

Last night at the DNC was unbelievable. The production was top notch. When roll call started with the cheesy DJ, I think most of us groaned at first. But then you realized it was just a joyous and energetic occasion. They turned the most fucking boring party of a convention into a dance party. Incredible!

I'm not a rah rah Democrat. I've been very cynical about the party apparatus, particularly over the last 10 years. But I'm happy to admit their instincts are absolutely on point right now, and I get the feeling that it wasn't only Biden that stepped down a month ago. The old establishment finally let the younger generation take the reins within the party itself. And it's firing on all cylinders. Keep it up. This is amazing. 

 

 

It's Texas football when they let Vince be Vince.

[Js1 83619]

It’s a good counter to MAGA - it was not great back then, so why would we want to go back to that 

[Js1 83619]

YouGov/Economist: Harris 46, Trump 43

+1 for Harris since last week. Her favorability is -1, Trump is -10

['stache 21589]

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It’s a good counter to MAGA - it was not great back then, so why would we want to go back to that 

Also applies to abortion rights going backwards.

[Goredho 17181]

16 hours ago, G650 said:

Heaven forbid I dissuade anyone from piling on JD Vance, but black shoes and navy suiting is the classic combination.

 

12 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Agree with @Red Five, I won't knock anyone for it, but navy with some shade of brown shoes is where it's at. Fight me 

You brought it upon yourselves.

[royiv 9045]

33 minutes ago, Chopper said:

I listened to KH last night in Mwk and to my ears, "Not going back" was heard too often...I'm already tired of it and I just worry she would benefit from a different rallying cry. All due deference to her incredible campaign team...they have been absolutely amazing so far. 

The Trumpers really got tired of “Lock her up” in 2016. Never really did resonate with that crowd and it quit energizing them after a couple of weeks.

[Sawbonz 26892]

10 hours ago, Chopper said:

speaking of small dicks

DON’T CALL US WEIRD!!!!

[Blotto 23292]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Isn’t Polymarket crypto only and invested in by Thiel?

Another difference is that polymarket blocks US residents from  signing up. Now I've read that they don't really  try that hard to block people connecting via a VPN, but markets that are predominantly or significantly populated by non US residents may have a different bias than markets like PredictIt. 

38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It’s a good counter to MAGA - it was not great back then, so why would we want to go back to that 

I think its a great battle cry when framed with  the GQP's project 2025 and its regressive agenda as the other outcome. 

[MissingInAction 24423]

55 minutes ago, Goredho said:

 

You brought it upon yourselves.

Crocs are blissfully comfortable. F the haters.

[Chopper 16666]

 

3 hours ago, nycHorn said:

Is the schedule published? I looked earlier for lineup and times but couldn’t find it.

Each day's official schedule has been published sometime around 1pm, give or take 45 minutes. edit - meaning times and the full list of speakers. Tonight is Buttigieg and Bill Clinton. Oh and Pelosi and Walz! 

 

Edited August 21 by Chopper

[Chopper 16666]

Trump's former Press Sec's speech was just 2 minutes and packed a punch. "I wasn't just a Trump supporter, I was a TRUUUUE Believer," she began.

article https://archive.ph/RobGO

 

[TexEx15 17325]

Fantastic. Thread goes on to call out every member that signed as retired that is full of shit such as a Senior Airman E3.

 

[Pancho 42992]

 

[Gatorubet 29764]

[TexasEd 8030]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

I think the "we're not going back" thing is a good pushback to the GOP. It's a chance to flip the narrative from the GOP being able to say "we can make it better" to the Democrats being able to say "no, they will make it worse - and they wrote a book on how they will do it (Project 2025)." The GOP wrote down exactly how they plan to govern and a lot of it is very unpopular.

I think we're not going back is a great counter to "Make America Great Again" for the people that view "MAGA" as a dog whistle on many levels:

• overt oppression and racism
• hatred and intolerance from dear leader
• retribution and division
• overt political violence in the name of a fascist
• lack of equality

It's vague enough to encompass many things, all bad, that Trump represents.  I also like the "I've seen that movie before" line that Barak threw out along with the "Sequels are always worse"

Edited August 21 by TexasEd

[Chopper 16666]

I watched Doug Emhoff's speech for a second time because it was so good and so strategic, but also highly relatable, for me at least. 

 

[High Plains Drifter 10937]

On 8/19/2024 at 5:30 PM, gmr548 said:

Along this line, Georgia Republicans are making it very clear they will not certify a Harris victory should it happen. Harris is in a tough position. She has to contest the state for variety of reasons but it also can't be counted on at all. Any path to victory hinging on Georgia as the tipping point is implausible. 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/georgia-election-board-approves-new-rules-critics-fear-112960772

 

Even is she prevails in the electoral college without georgia, Harris needs to be suing the fuck out of those cocksuckers. And pressing federal charges.  

This is in addition to the mob that should storm the capital, of course. 

 

 

[High Plains Drifter 10937]

23 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Fantastic. Thread goes on to call out every member that signed as retired that is full of shit such as a Senior Airman E3.

 

 

Isn't "Stolen Valor" against the law? Aren't people sometimes prosecuted for that shit? Or do you actually have to gain something of tangible valor for it to be illegal?

 

@surlylawdogs

 

 

[Red Five 40449]

Trump's former Press Sec's speech was just 2 minutes and packed a punch. "I wasn't just a Trump supporter, I was a TRUUUUE Believer," she began.
article https://archive.ph/RobGO

 

I liked the story about how he got upset that the people in the hospital they were visiting were getting all the attention. And not him.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33723]

4 hours ago, swraith said:

Anyone have insight into why 2 of the betting markets have a divergence?

Polymarket | Presidential Election Winner 2024


vs

2024 Presidential Election Predictions & Odds | Who will be the next president? (predictit.org)

probably has something to do with ebitda

[Gatorubet 29764]

4 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

Isn't "Stolen Valor" against the law? Aren't people sometimes prosecuted for that shit? Or do you actually have to gain something of tangible valor for it to be illegal?

@surlylawdogs

Dunno.  I only recall that I thought it was unconstitutionally vague. I remember thinking it might apply to actors in a military movie - or to family members who wanted to honor another family member by wearing a division patch on a piece of clothing - like I wore my fathers armored division patch on a baseball cap to honor him.  

I just assumed nobody thought that I was a veteran of a war fought before I was born - by wearing a patch of a division that is no longer in existence. 

I think the whole concept behind the law is stupid military knob jobbing, and a law that needed to be passed once every other problem in the country was solved.

[Js1 83619]

American Research Group with some numbers that help Kamala (no actual horserace numbers):

Biden approval at 45/49
Biden handling of the economy at 43/51
36% of people polled say the economy is getting better / 25% say its the same - so 61% do not think the economy is getting worse
54% do not believe we are in a recession

The better voters think of Biden + the economy, the better chance of Kamala winning 

[The Dog 43482]

Transcript:

Spoiler

My name is David French, and I’m an opinion columnist at “The New York Times.” I’ve been a conservative since the moment I started being interested in politics. I was a Cold War Reagan conservative. I came of age in the 1980s, and that was my political identity.

And for a long time, it also was my professional identity. I was a free speech lawyer for many years. I was a pro-life litigator for many years. I was a Romney delegate to the 2012 Republican National Convention. So I was deeply embedded both in the conservative legal movement and in the Republican Party itself before the rise of Donald Trump.

But I am, for the first time in my adult life, going to vote for a Democrat for president in 2024. I’m going to vote for Kamala Harris. Some people say I can’t vote for Kamala Harris because I’m pro-life and a Christian. But in fact, I believe Donald Trump is harming the pro-life movement in a profound way.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

I’m often asked if I’m still conservative. The answer is I’m voting against Trump precisely because I’m conservative. That’s why I’m doing it. I was a Reagan Republican because of the commitment of the parties to certain conservative principles. The current Republican Party is not the Reagan Republican Party in its policies, and it is certainly absolutely not the Reagan Republican Party when it comes to its commitment or understanding of the importance of character.

Now, with the rise of the MAGA Republican Party, the party has transformed itself. And so therefore, if I’m a Republican because of a commitment to character and a specific kind of conservatism, and it’s no longer committed to those things, then it has no claims on my loyalty at all.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

I had never voted for Donald Trump. I like to say I have voted for Mitt Romney for president more than any other person alive, including probably Mitt Romney. So I’ve written in Mitt Romney, for example. But I had not affirmatively cast a vote for the Democratic candidate. And I will tell you when this really began to change.

It wasn’t just January 6, although January 6 elevated the stakes dramatically. It was the one-two punch of January 6 and seeing how far Trump himself and MAGA had strayed from its commitment to the American rule of law. It was also, then, that Russian attack on Ukraine and the response of the Biden-Harris administration to that contrasted with the MAGA response. What I’ve seen is this administration was on the right side of those issues. And Kamala Harris has doubled down on those commitments to be on the right side of those issues.

I’m an evangelical Christian, and I’ve been pro-life for reasons related both to my faith and to my understanding of science and justice. And it was one of the primary reasons why I continued my affiliation with the Republican Party, because of the Republican Party’s consistent commitment to a pro-life position.

But with the rise of Donald Trump, I was very, very concerned about his effect. Abortions went up under his presidency, and since the Dobbs decision, the pro-life movement has been in a state of political collapse. It’s not even been able to win a referendum in a red state. Trump was the very first president since Carter to end his presidency with a higher abortion rate and ratio and tens of thousands of more abortions.

So you’re beginning to have a world with more abortions, decreased support for the pro-life movement, and then Donald Trump himself and the MAGA movement fundamentally changes the Republican Party platform to the point where it was no longer recognizably pro-life. And it was the most watered down platform on abortion in 40 years.

And so it strikes me as bizarre if people make the argument that as an evangelical Christian, you have to support the man who watered down the pro-life platform in the Republican Party, the man who oversaw the first increase in abortions in decades, the man who has been found liable for sexually abusing a woman, and a man who’s bragged — bragged — about his sexual exploits. That that’s the person that Christians have to support or they’re not. being faithful strikes me as not just destructive, but also laughably ridiculous.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

It’s a mistake to think of voting for somebody as endorsing all aspects of their coming presidency. No, it’s an endorsement of the things I like, [LAUGHS]: and it’s not an endorsement of the things that I don’t like. And it’s definitely a repudiation of the other side.

Here’s the way I would put it. I think there are ample opportunities for the pro-life movement to work with a Harris administration to enact policies that will make abortion less appealing as an alternative for women. So, for example, I have long supported the Biden administration’s efforts to create an expanded child tax credit. I do think that there are policies that are aimed at improving the lives of young mothers that pro-life people can work with the Harris administration on.

Also, I’m not naive. There are things that I would oppose. So, for example, if she is wanting to repeal the Hyde amendment, which is prohibiting direct federal funding of abortion, I would oppose that. If she was wanting to enact a federal law codifying Roe, I would oppose that.

But I would also note that pro-life folks can block some of those policies with their votes down ballot. The president is not — she would not be queen of America.

[laughs]

She would the votes in the House and the Senate to enact national change. So this idea that everything depends on the vote for the president is just completely wrong.

And right now, I think there’s an appetite for a return to a more normal American politics and a more calm America. And I think you see that through her candidacy, not through the candidacy of Donald Trump.

Money quotes:

Quote

But with the rise of Donald Trump, I was very, very concerned about his effect. Abortions went up under his presidency, and since the Dobbs decision, the pro-life movement has been in a state of political collapse. It’s not even been able to win a referendum in a red state. Trump was the very first president since Carter to end his presidency with a higher abortion rate and ratio and tens of thousands of more abortions.

Quote

Here’s the way I would put it. I think there are ample opportunities for the pro-life movement to work with a Harris administration to enact policies that will make abortion less appealing as an alternative for women. So, for example, I have long supported the Biden administration’s efforts to create an expanded child tax credit. I do think that there are policies that are aimed at improving the lives of young mothers that pro-life people can work with the Harris administration on.

How novel! Decrease abortions by enacting ACTUAL "pro family" policies! 

This would require a pretty big shift in how the GOP views things, unfortunately.

[squib 1112]

3 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I am still stunned and pleased with how the Democratic Party has absolutely CRUSHED it since Biden dropped out. They are hitting on all cylinders everyday. 

Last night at the DNC was unbelievable. The production was top notch. When roll call started with the cheesy DJ, I think most of us groaned at first. But then you realized it was just a joyous and energetic occasion. They turned the most fucking boring party of a convention into a dance party. Incredible!

I'm not a rah rah Democrat. I've been very cynical about the party apparatus, particularly over the last 10 years. But I'm happy to admit their instincts are absolutely on point right now, and I get the feeling that it wasn't only Biden that stepped down a month ago. The old establishment finally let the younger generation take the reins within the party itself. And it's firing on all cylinders. Keep it up. This is amazing. 

 

 

I agree, but....

Edited August 21 by squib

[hookem2010 2554]

My wife, who is fairly liberal but often needs to be dragged to the voting booth, has been tuned in to virtually every second of this convention. A switch turned around the time of the debate where she is now beating me to the punch in sharing political news. It's amazing.

[TexasEd 8030]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

Money quotes:

How novel! Decrease abortions by enacting ACTUAL "pro family" policies! 

This would require a pretty big shift in how the GOP views things, unfortunately.

Yes, let's take care of the kids after they're born with healthcare, child tax credits, school lunches, good public education, etc.

Edited August 21 by TexasEd

[Js1 83619]

Voto Latino poll of 2,000 Latino voters (LV) in AZ, MI, NV, NC, PA, WI

April 2024 - Biden 47, Trump 34, RFK 12
August 2024 - Harris 60, Trump 29, RFK 7

[Jive Turkey 12426]

Trump is speaking outdoors in Asheboro, NC.  bulletproof glass.

 

[Jive Turkey 12426]

"we did things like nobody ever heard of"

[The Dog 43482]

 

[The Royal We 3051]

I'm sure tens and tens of people will tune in when RFK addresses "The Nation."

[The Dog 43482]

could also be that he's got enough signatures to be on the ballot in AZ.

[Left Coast 862]

[South Austin 51681]

12 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

Trump is speaking outdoors in Asheboro, NC.  

Weird stop.  One of my best friends from my first two years of college at N.C. State is from Asheboro and I've been there a few times.  It's a tiny shithole in BFE, not really close to any major metropolitan area.  Maybe it's the best place his campaign could find to which he didn't already owe a bunch of money.

[The Dog 43482]

the speeches worked:

 

[Js1 83619]

I’d love to see Trump stick to policy 

[chainsaw 9668]

Looks like a small crowd

[Hiphopopotamos 20850]

Earlier today on MSNBC they said that the digital team has been described within the party (affectionately) as a

 

‘group of feral Gen Z’ers with tremendous instincts and little oversight. ‘

 

They’ve been aces thus far. 

[Horn75 193]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I’d love to see Trump stick to policy 

Does Kamala have any policies out yet?

[Jive Turkey 12426]

Thanks for saving us from all of those wars, Donald.

 

[South Austin 51681]

1 minute ago, Horn75 said:

Does Kamala have any policies out yet?

No taxes on income generated from college fan sites.  Not sure about any other policies.  

[Chewbacca 7625]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I’d love to see Trump stick to policy 

Yeah, he's never done it before.  Don't think he's going to start now.