2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Js1 83350]

 

[Okie State 3706]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Or a wealth tax on net worth over $100MM.

[Js1 83350]

Just now, Okie State said:

Or a wealth tax on net worth over $100MM.

Dudes living in a studio apartment with no headboard and a chair in front of a TV with a PS5 upset that taxes will go up on anyone making over $400k

[TexEx15 17253]

 

[immamac 41718]

4 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

That tweet is everything that's wrong with these people. It's sick. It's inexplicable. There is nothing JD Vance could ever say that would make that tweet OK. Even if it was to torpedo the campaign he is a part of. 

I believe this tweet costs him everything.

[mdmost 42459]

Again, let them call her stupid and unqualified. Remember, she's the DEI candidate because she's a woman and she's black and Indian (well, she picks which one she wants to be). The worse they get, the better it is for Kamala. People have to be tired of this already. One side stays negative, the other talks about the future. Which side would you want to be a part of?

Also, we're really bringing back early 00s content as memes. I guess when Kamala wins she can post All Your Base Are Belongs to Us. 

[Hefeweizen 5222]

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

That tweet is everything that's wrong with these people. It's sick. It's inexplicable. There is nothing JD Vance could ever say that would make that tweet OK. Even if it was to torpedo the campaign he is a part of. 

I believe this tweet costs him everything.

Counter point, I think it doesn’t even move the needle.  He’s the weird couch fucker guy.  Turnip is the only one that matters.  No one was going to vote for this weirdo anyway.  Not a single turnip voter is going to change their mind.

[Chuckie Finster 22321]

 

Not important but this is a very strange way to learn that there’s another Kate Upton.

[Js1 83350]

Turnip speaking at Moms 4 Liberty tonight. This should go well and certainly won’t be filled with sound bites for negative campaigning 

[dcbc 14247]

15 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

Trump creeping on someone’s daughter. 

 

[BearSchlong 8003]

That tweet is everything that's wrong with these people. It's sick. It's inexplicable. There is nothing JD Vance could ever say that would make that tweet OK. Even if it was to torpedo the campaign he is a part of. 
I believe this tweet costs him everything.

I believe each successive day brings more outlandish antisocial behavior.

It’s as if they are beating us with a proverbial meat tenderizer, just methodically loosening us up.

[TexEx15 17253]

 

[Js1 83350]

5 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Even if it's not, her appearance there could get it across the 60% finish line.  I'm curious if she will also go to Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota.  Colorado, Maryland and NY too. 

Edited August 30 by Js1

[G650 13282]

I'd be cool if no one ever quote Chris Bouzy again

[dcbc 14247]

9 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Emily is putting 50x the thought into rebutting a stupid tweet than its author did in writing it.  That’s a JD Vance win.  

She's not wrong, but it's far more effective and just as accurate simply to reiterate how weird they are.  That says something about us all, but this is war.

Edited August 30 by dcbc

[SydneyCarton 47471]

5 minutes ago, G650 said:

I'd be cool if no one ever quote Chris Bouzy again

Why? Not being an asshole I don’t follow who people are on twitter? Dude wear make capris and loafers or something even more heinous?

[G650 13282]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Why? Not being an asshole I don’t follow who people are on twitter? Dude wear make capris and loafers or something even more heinous?

His raison d'etre is being a vicious attention whore and has gone after multiple people who have called him out. Dude is a piece of crap.

[Js1 83350]

 

 

[South Austin 51633]

1 hour ago, TexEx15 said:

 

JD really is turning out to be the perfect VP pick for Trump.

[cactusflinthead 27181]

And then, it turns out there’s a surprising muse for the new dump-on-Trump approach. He’s a conservative who’s written for The Atlantic: George Conway. He used to be married to Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway. And during his years of observing his ex-wife’s boss, he gathered an arsenal of insights about how to make fun of Trump in a way that gets under his skin.

And he tried them out before anyone else was doing it.

George Conway: The best way to hit the soft underbelly of his psychological disorders is to mock him. He cannot take mockery. It is the thing that makes him craziest, and the mockery diminishes him. It makes him look weak. And that’s, you know, the reason why his followers follow him—they think he is a strong man. And he is not.

 

Edited August 30 by cactusflinthead

[HenryJames 65525]

56 minutes ago, immamac said:

I believe this tweet costs him everything.

[Bojack 2023]

Today JD will be practicing his new and improved retail politics in a burger joint in Wisconsin.

JD: Hey, I'm running for Vice President.

Worker: OK

JD: How long you worked here?

Worker: Since May when I dropped out of college.

JD: OK. What's the most you ever lost on a coin toss?

 

[Js1 83350]

I just like to literally LOL at Nate Silver because he's so obviously putting his thumb on his model's scale.  

 

[atomheartbevo 89015]

8 hours ago, elfenix said:

There will be people voting in this election who do not remember the Bush presidency at all.

Fuck when did I get old

[The Dog 43408]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I just like to literally LOL at Nate Silver because he's so obviously putting his thumb on his model's scale.  

 

and that's why I like RCP better is because they just "add it to the pile." they may include polls that are dubious but they don't modify them in any way like  Silver does. if you feel the need to mess with the result then don't bother including it!

[TexasEd 8017]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I just like to literally LOL at Nate Silver because he's so obviously putting his thumb on his model's scale.  

 

So people expect a bounce and instead of showing the bounce they subtract it back out but don’t really advertise that so it looks like there isn’t a bounce?

But then they are contradicted by all the other polls so they just look like hacks.

[atomheartbevo 89015]

9 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

And she did all of that on BlueSky, where about six people will see it.

7 people.

9 hours ago, Chopper said:

I guess she could be on twitter where accounts with 20,000 followers get 3 likes on their tweets, and other accounts, particularly women, get attacked by white supremacists and russian bots. 

I have a friend who is still on twitter because that's where his followers are (not Traces of Texas), and he can have a tweet go viral and hit several hundred thousand likes/retweets, and he'll get 20 or 30 new followers out of it, and he might get $20 out of it, because the advertising and what not is absolute shit these days, and the replies fill up with bots and porn spam (his topic is technical in nature, nothing to do with porn).  He fucking hates it, but he's struggling to get people over to his Threads or Bluesky accounts (he may not get paid there, but he also has an easier time interacting with people).

[Foosters 17638]

You've manipulated the polls so that Harris will be polling below where she was prior to the DNC?

Yeah, exactly.

[Js1 83350]

2 minutes ago, Foosters said:

You've manipulated the polls so that Harris will be polling below where she was prior to the DNC?

Yeah, exactly.

Truly should no be that surprising. He works for a crypto based betting site with heavy investment by Thiel

[Firemans4Horn 17136]

Polling hasn’t been great for Harris in Pennsylvania recently. So it fits that this is still a coin flip race. 

[Red Five 40355]

“Well excitement went way up post DNC so we need to manually remove all that….”

[Chuckie Finster 22321]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I just like to literally LOL at Nate Silver because he's so obviously putting his thumb on his model's scale.  

 

It's pretty funny to watch him say "we programmed the model to negate any polling bumps post DNC Convention, and now that our model is doing what we told it to do, does that mean trouble for Harris???"

[South Austin 51633]

3 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Polling hasn’t been great for Harris in Pennsylvania recently. So it fits that this is still a coin flip race. 

I know polling has been largely bullshit the past couple of election cycles, but I still don't like hearing this.  

[The Original Greaser Bob 2701]

I guess the CNN interview wasn't a bid deal last night.  Or at least I thought JD Vance's mean tweet buried it.

Anyway, I thought it was B-.  Bash drains all the energy out of a room.  

But ultimately, good practice for KH.

[atomheartbevo 89015]

1 hour ago, BearSchlong said:

U believe each successive day brings more outlandish antisocial behavior.

It’s as if they are beating us with a proverbial meat tenderizer, just methodically loosening us up.

That would imply that they have a plan.  They don't.  There is no Karl Rove pulling strings and rolling out policies in well-scripted speeches. Trump is just flailing around and everything is about catering to his whims - one moment he wants to spend the day on the shitter sending out truth socials, the next day he's going to some small-ass rally or speech or town hall where he babbles about whatever his stream of conscious is fixated on.

And Vance isn't much better - people claim he's sharp, but for somebody with his education, and who was into Wall Street/Silicon Valley tech companies, he's a shit speaker.  He can't relate to the very people he claims he was a part of in his younger years, and the moment you toss out a comment like he did about "the haters", you've A) shown that people in the audience got under your skin and B) lost that audience as a result.

Anyways, her's another example - DeSanctimonious and the other Florida Republicans are trying so hard to ban abortion completely, and then in walks Donnie Boy trashing all of their work.

This is what happens when a candidate completely runs the GOP and has no checks and balances, nobody telling him that he's fucking up or hurting the brand.

 

[CooterBrown 17735]

Nate Silver got lucky with one poll years ago and his models have been complete shit since then. 

[Js1 83350]

7 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I know polling has been largely bullshit the past couple of election cycles, but I still don't like hearing this.  

Okay, but wait, we need to address that 4/6 polls around or after the DNC have been partisan R polls showing a tie or Trump +1.  Fabrizio is literally Trump’s pollster, SoCal is mainly used by the GOP and Insider Advantage is also a right wing outfit.

We cannot fall into the 2022 mindset of letting right wing pollsters flood the zone and think that’s the only truth. Bloomberg/MC had Harris up 5 in PA. Pre-DNC, Susquehanna and Franklin & Marshall had her up 3-4

Edited August 30 by Js1

[WhatTheBuck 28613]

7 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Liz Choney highlights a salient point re: Republican hypocrisy.
 

 

 

You’re going to need to spell out your endorsement of Kamala more explicitly than that, Liz. 

[South Austin 51633]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay, but wait, we need to address that 4/6 polls around or after the DNC have been partisan R polls showing a tie or Trump +1.  Fabrizio is literally Trump’s pollster, SoCal is mainly used by the GOP and Insider Advantage is also a right wing outfit.

We cannot fall into the 2022 mindset of letting right wing pollsters flood the zone and think that’s the only truth. Bloomberg/MC had Harris up 5 in PA. Pre-DNC, Susquehanna and Franklin & Marshall had her up 3-4

Okay. But my asshole will find a reason to stay puckered between now and the election.

[atomheartbevo 89015]

1 minute ago, WhatTheBuck said:

You’re going to need to spell out your endorsement of Kamala more explicitly than that, Liz. 

Kamala already said she'd have a Republican in her administration, and I'm guessing Liz wants it pretty bad.

 

[South Austin 51633]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kamala already said she'd have a Republican in her administration, and I'm guessing Liz wants it pretty bad.

Maybe Mitt Romney is in one of her binders of men.

[texastough 1098]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay, but wait, we need to address that 4/6 polls around or after the DNC have been partisan R polls showing a tie or Trump +1.  Fabrizio is literally Trump’s pollster, SoCal is mainly used by the GOP and Insider Advantage is also a right wing outfit.

We cannot fall into the 2022 mindset of letting right wing pollsters flood the zone and think that’s the only truth. Bloomberg/MC had Harris up 5 in PA. Pre-DNC, Susquehanna and Franklin & Marshall had her up 3-4

I still don't get the obsession over polls almost on a daily basis. Do polls right now matter? Has there been any study of how polling affects turnout? Like if polling shows one candidate with a really large lead, does that depress turnout? Does it juice turnout for the candidate behind in the polls?  If the polls show a tie does that juice turnout? 

[wildcat09 28539]

10 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Emily is putting 50x the thought into rebutting a stupid tweet than its author did in writing it.  That’s a JD Vance win.  

 

10 hours ago, LCHorn said:

My reaction is that any validity her argument might have is entirely undermined by a masterbatory series of tweets published on a platform unbefitting of the effort or sincerity of intent.  That said, I bet she feels triumphant after all of that so good for her, I guess.  

Real stupid pair of posts right here.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2701]

"Satires of Men" - new surly motto?

[atomheartbevo 89015]

 

[chainsaw 9656]

If the pollster overcorrects on some aspect of massaging the raw data, like when they attempt to project turnout for SEPA or for a particular demographic (Black women or White men), and when they overcorrect based on assumptions beneficial to the right wing, I'm guessing that's how you end up with these tossup or "Trump +1" outcomes. There's a lot of new registered voters and it's hard to know which of these pollsters have accounted for them.

[CooterBrown 17735]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Jack does not give a fuck while giving all the fucks.  Gruntled.

[The Dog 43408]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kamala already said she'd have a Republican in her administration, and I'm guessing Liz wants it pretty bad.

 

Susan Collins so the Democrats can steal a senate seat. 

[Biff Tannen 45151]

1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Not important but this is a very strange way to learn that there’s another Kate Upton.

Exactly my first thought.

[Js1 83350]

Just now, The Dog said:

Susan Collins so the Democrats can steal a senate seat. 

Collins ain’t stupid enough to say yes. It’ll be Kinzinger or maybe Mesa mayor John Giles, who endorsed Harris.