2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[High Plains Drifter 11186]

On 8/26/2024 at 9:18 AM, Js1 said:

Same But if the moderators won’t, KH can’t get bogged down in it. She just needs to retort that’s a lie (better if she’s keeping count and can say, well that was Donald’s 14th lie so far) and go into her response 

 

Instead of fact checking, just have the moderators cut off his mike and say "I'm sorry, there is no evidence of the 2020 election being stolen (or whatever the lie is). This debate is not a forum to spread lies and disinformation. Lets go on to the next question."

or "I'm sorry, you are not answering the question. Let's move on." 

Of course the p of that happening is less than @Brisketexan scoring with Sela Ward and Sofia Vergara at the same time. 

 

 

[Hank Kingsley 21767]

Get 'em, Gwen 

 

[High Plains Drifter 11186]

On 8/26/2024 at 10:23 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Not at all.  You have one person who says "that was a lie" to a team of a half dozen or so fact checkers, and they take turns rotating through a quick google search after which they put up a simple refutation.  It probably wouldn't take a minute per.

 

a what?

 

[Pato del Muerto 53463]

6 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

a what?

 

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20913]

3 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

You’re going to need to spell out your endorsement of Kamala more explicitly than that, Liz. 

I just want to point out that Liz ChOney is a parody account.

[Tuco 5093]

it seems an unreasonable take to think that the tremendous amount of enthusiasm, coupled with the tremendous amount of new registrants from deep democratic demographics (young, black, women), coupled with record setting campaign contributions to the democrats - is something that will blow away by a puff of air in a few weeks after the convention - and to conclude from that you knock a couple percentage points off Harris despite those facts. 
 

Fair enough. I think those are good reasons to believe his model is off. But, I get why a modeler is going to limit the scope of his model. And I get why someone trying to make a buck off it isn’t going to highlight the deficiencies. It’s all with a giant grain of salt.

[Pancho 46295]

This is what a standard Black auntie sounds like

 

[YChang 3568]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

This is what a standard Black auntie sounds like

Lol, this is every Asian mom, aunt, and grandmother. Plus you get the added bonus as you're chowing down on the sweet with a comment of "Have you gained weight?"

[South Austin 53221]

1 minute ago, YChang said:

Plus you get the added bonus as you're chowing down on the sweet with a comment of "Have you gained weight?"

She's saving that for the debate.

[cactusflinthead 27627]

4 minutes ago, YChang said:

Lol, this is every Asian mom, aunt, and grandmother. Plus you get the added bonus as you're chowing down on the sweet with a comment of "Have you gained weight?"

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20913]

10 minutes ago, YChang said:

Lol, this is every Asian mom, aunt, and grandmother. Plus you get the added bonus as you're chowing down on the sweet with a comment of "Have you gained weight?"

I swear, a five-minute "buddy video" mashup of "Tim and Kamala On the Road"  just doing normal stuff together like going to the grocery store and having a discussion over which milk they should get (skim/ 1 percent/ 2 percent/ whole or cow/almond/oat/walnut) would be a killer political ad because it would highlight how JD and Trump cannot do these normal things.  George Conway is right: mockery is the best way to take Trump and Vance down.

 

Edited August 30 by Horn Under a Bad Sign

[Gil Bang 26231]

8 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

JD Vance as the autistic rich kid with no friends except for his butler checks out 

Might as well call him Barron.

[crash_davis 23468]

Obama 2008 vibes. Kamala is energizing people especially minority women.

 

https://www.rawstory.com/voter-registration-numbers/

Paris emphasized, "For nearly the entire year, more people had been registering as Republicans than as Democrats when signing up to vote in" the two states, which "use party registration and that release this data regularly."

On Wednesday, Tom Bonier, with the data firm Target Smart, shared new numbers with CBS News' Major Garrett, according to Mediate.

 

"We're tracking something really interesting right now — it’s a surge in voter registration in key groups ahead of the November election," Garrett said. "Among young Black women, registration is up more than 175%. You heard that right. More than 175% in 13 states. That’s compared to the same time in 2020. This, according to the data firm Target Smart, registration has also increased among young Latinas and Black Americans."

Garrett then asked Bonier, "Could that possibly be right? If you must have triple-checked this or many more times than that."

The data expert replied, "You’re right to repeat the number because I more than triple-checked it. It’s incredibly unusual to see changes in voter registration that are anywhere close to this. I mean, there might be 175% is almost tripling of registration rates among this specific group. You just don’t see that sort of thing happen in elections normally."

Responding to the question of what the increase says about voter "enthusiasm," Bonier said, "Tells us a lot. The reason that we look at this voter registration data is because the polls will only tell us so much. The polls tell us how people are going to vote. They don’t tell us if or who is going to vote. It’s a big question.'"

 

He emphasized, "The best indicator of that is the actions that people are taking. Number one, registering to vote. Someone who says, I want to participate in this election. And so as we’ve seen these questions of which side has the advantage and intensity and enthusiasm, we look for changes in voter registration like this. People who are newly registered to vote are much more likely to vote on Election Day."

[South Austin 53221]

That's a lot of new voters for the Republicans to disenfranchise before November.

[DixonHur 11959]

19 minutes ago, Pancho said:

This is what a standard Black auntie sounds like

 

TIL my grandmother was a black auntie

I mean, she was from the Black Forest region of Germany, so maybe it checks out.

[SaucyJack 3519]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Welp, that settles it.  It'll be a heavy J White music weekend

 

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19453]

5 hours ago, Okie State said:

Or a wealth tax on net worth over $100MM.

According to the brain trust in the inflation thread, you need a net worth over $100MM to afford that apartment and groceries.

[Dahobbs 18311]

21 minutes ago, YChang said:

Lol, this is every Asian mom, aunt, and grandmother. Plus you get the added bonus as you're chowing down on the sweet with a comment of "Have you gained weight?"

My grandmother would simultaneously suggest I'm not eating enough, eating too much, and need to become strong like her (which little kid me did think she was freakishly strong). Maybe that comes from escaping machine gun fire from the Japanese and then the communists, and then pretending to be boy to hitch a boat to India and then the US all before the age of 14. I don't know. 

[Chopper 17431]

53 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There's a lot less undecided around this time.  Siena/NYT explained partially why their polls were off in 2020 - people they called who didn't complete the survey weren't counted, even though they indicated a vote for Trump ("I'm voting for Trump!" followed by hanging up).  They are counting those as a Trump vote this year. 

The decision to ignore people who said "Trump" and then hung up has to be one of the dumbest pollster decisions of all time. I'm not familiar with the story other than reading it in this thread though I accept it as true. It's so jaw droppingly stupid it seems like a good reason to ignore the pollsters, even the well-rated ones, especially this far out from the election. I believe there's too much focus on the polling/horse race right now, and that there's no magic national vote percentage that would give Harris the electoral vote she needs - gotta go state by state, county by county.

[GopherRock 1773]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Harris is polling way better than Hillary was in 2016 and just a few tick below Obama in 2012.  In both those cases, the Labor Day average was less than 1 point from the final margin.  

I think people forget that 2016 was so weird - both candidates polled so low, due to high negatives, with a high number of undecided voters - but damn if the polls knew it was going to be a <2% race in the end.   

Or even 2008 - it was close after Labor Day, with McCain ahead in a bunch of polls through the first half of September.  It was not until late September that Obama pulled away for good. 

One reason why 2008 was weird is that John McCain gave his acceptance speech to the RNC on Thursday, September 4, which meant that his bounce started and ended a lot later than some years.

The timing of his bounce cooling off lined up nicely with the collapse of Wall Street.  Lehman Brothers failed on Monday, September 15th, AIG followed the next day, and the first bailout bill failed on the House floor shortly thereafter. 

[Chuckie Finster 23040]

So, uh, this is bullshit.

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13727]

The whole tax on unrealized capital gains is a complete red herring. Even the Dems sweep in November, it's extremely doubtful this would be a priority. Will they raise tax or close some loopholes for the wealthy? That's a possibility.  But create a process to track and tax unrealized capital gains? 0.001% chance.

[Red Five 41723]

So, uh, this is bullshit.
 
 

I’m sorry, are they saying Biden should have attended Trump’s illegal campaign photo op stunt? I’d rather not click on that link.

[texasdago 7770]

54 minutes ago, YChang said:

Lol, this is every Asian mom, aunt, and grandmother. Plus you get the added bonus as you're chowing down on the sweet with a comment of "Have you gained weight?"

*Laughs knowingly in Italian*

Before I lost a good chunk of weight, we were visiting my aunt and uncle in Rome... at the time, I had let my hair grow out longer.  Upon seeing my hair, my aunt said, "I like your hair... it makes you look less fat" 

[LCHorn 2751]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The whole tax on unrealized capital gains is a complete red herring.

I don’t think it’s a complete red herring, but soaking the rich polls well, regardless of party ID.  
 

I wonder if it might be the Dems “pro-life”-like policy, in that it helps energize their base but will damn them if it ever comes to pass (as the largest of their socially sympathetic financiers flee out of economic self-interest).  
 

Personally, I don’t really care what Harris wants to run on as long as it’s popular and maybe gives her some coattails to ride.  
 

Nobody is giving the Democrats a pass, unfortunately, when a recalcitrant body in the law-making process prevents bills popular with a significant majority from becoming law.  Creating durable majorities in Congress means they actually need to do something.  

[South Austin 53221]

Just now, Red Five said:

I’m sorry, are they saying Biden should have attended Trump’s illegal campaign photo op stunt? I’d rather not click on that link.

I think they're saying that because Biden supposedly missed one Arlington memorial service, it's okay that Trump was giving a thumbs up with a shit-eating grin over a grave with his campaign entourage in tow while disregarding federal regulations.

[CooterBrown 18287]

6 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I wonder if it might be the Dems “pro-life”-like policy, in that it helps energize their base.

I think this is the case. I doubt there are many people worth $100M that actually have the majority of their wealth in their own name.  If not, it'd be really easy to move assets to a trust to avoid the tax. 

Edited August 30 by CooterBrown

[Fudge Nuggets 19453]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Or even 2008 - it was close after Labor Day, with McCain ahead in a bunch of polls through the first half of September.  It was not until late September that Obama pulled away for good. 

The collapse of Lehman Brothers and all out financial armageddon had a lot to do with that.

[Bozo_Casanova 26846]

 

[Pancho 46295]

 

[Bullneck 19516]

2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Get 'em, Gwen 

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb and posit that there aren't many arguments in the Walz household.

[Bullneck 19516]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Roland Martin, eh? Here's an oldie but goodie:

Spoiler

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The collapse of Lehman Brothers and all out financial armageddon had a lot to do with that.

That's when I stopped voting Republicans.  Their solution to the financial crisis was less regulation. 

I thought, "So, OK, you guys have no answers, I guess.  Let's see if anyone else does."

 

 

Edited August 30 by Bullneck

[NWBuck 8629]

2 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

Instead of fact checking, just have the moderators cut off his mike and say "I'm sorry, there is no evidence of the 2020 election being stolen (or whatever the lie is). This debate is not a forum to spread lies and disinformation. Lets go on to the next question."

or "I'm sorry, you are not answering the question. Let's move on." 

Let Kyle Clark moderate:

 

[Chopper 17431]

Turns out the Diaper Don “origin story” movie - The Apprentice - is getting a release before the election. It stars Sebastian Stan as Trump, and Succession’s Jeremy Strong as mobster lawyer Roy Cohn. The film shows how the Trump toxicity was shaped by his relationship with Cohn. Diaper Don tried to stop its release with threats of a lawsuit.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/trump-film-the-apprentice-release-date-awards-campaign-1235984424/

 

 

 

 

Quote

 

In the end, THR has learned, Kinematics’ interest in the film was bought out, allowing the Briarcliff deal to move forward.

In the relatively brief period between now and Oct. 11, The Apprentice will begin appearing at some fall film festivals, and a full-on awards campaign — something with which Ortenberg is very familiar from his days at Lionsgate overseeing Crash and at Open Road overseeing Spotlight, both of which won the best picture Oscar — is already being organized.

“What Abassi’s film reveals most of all is the extent to which the toxicity that’s now an inescapable part of our contemporary reality was shaped by the unholy alliance between two men half a century ago,” THR’s David Rooney opined in his Cannes review of the film, which received a largely positive critical reception across the board and now stands at 77 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.

 

 

[TexEx15 17937]

 

[Js1 87176]

Interesting hypothetical polling by Clarity Campaign Labs:

Harris 57, Vance 39

They do have Harris up 51-45 on Trump.  But yeah, this is proof that there's no successor to MAGA.  Vance would be getting his ass kicked. 

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20913]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Interesting hypothetical polling by Clarity Campaign Labs:

Harris 57, Vance 39

They do have Harris up 51-45 on Trump.  But yeah, this is proof that there's no successor to MAGA.  Vance would be getting his ass kicked. 

My worry is that they'll find somebody who is perfectly capable of appearing like a nice, normal human being, fund him with their billions, and go crazy after he's elected. A Vanchurian candidate, so to speak. 

Edited August 30 by Horn Under a Bad Sign

[Dahobbs 18311]

2 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

My worry is that they'll find somebody who is perfectly capable of appearing like a nice, normal human being, fund him with their billions, and go crazy after he's elected. A Vanchurian candidate, so to speak. 

They haven't succeeded in doing that so far. They are all weird. And frankly, getting fucking weirder. See

• Ron DeSantis
• JD Vance
• Matt Gaetz
• Lauren Boebert (although, frankly, this may be there closest one)
• Kari Lake
• Majorie Taylor Greene
• Josh Hawley
• Vivek Ramaswamy

 

[aggie08 21795]

6 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

My worry is that they'll find somebody who is perfectly capable of appearing like a nice, normal human being, fund him with their billions, and go crazy after he's elected. A Vanchurian candidate, so to speak. 

That 6'4" 215 articulate, traditionally handsome, witty, perfect theoretical candidate would barely register with MAGA voters. They crave the theater and the professional wrestling storylines. They don't want "a more polished Trump." They want Stone Cold Steve Austin. They won't turn out for great looking suit.

[bluto 4996]

As of today there’s really only two options for them assuming Trump loses, youngkin or kemp. 

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20913]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

They haven't succeeded in doing that so far. They are all weird. And frankly, getting fucking weirder. See

• Ron DeSantis
• JD Vance
• Matt Gaetz
• Lauren Boebert (although, frankly, this may be there closest one)
• Kari Lake
• Majorie Taylor Greene
• Josh Hawley
• Vivek Ramaswamy

 

True. In order to appeal to MAGA, you have to adopt the extreme positions that most normal Americans find weird.  But my worry is that they'll find a Maga wolf in sheep's clothing. 

[TexLonghorn 5737]

Isn't that contradictory, though?  You can't appeal to maga by adopting their extreme positions yet still be a wolf in sheep's clothing.  The only way to appeal to maga is to fully be in wolf's clothing.  You pretend to be anything other than maga, and you lose the maga base.

Edited August 30 by TexLonghorn

[Chuckie Finster 23040]

3 minutes ago, bluto said:

As of today there’s really only two options for them assuming Trump loses, youngkin or kemp. 

They are both too skilled of politicians to ever appeal to the MAGA base.  They both would recognize the need to try and bring in moderate voters and there is no greater sin to the red hatters.

[Dahobbs 18311]

2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

They are both too skilled of politicians to ever appeal to the MAGA base.  They both would recognize the need to try and bring in moderate voters and there is no greater sin to the red hatters.

And isn't Kemp an enemy of MAGA at this point? 

[bluto 4996]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

And isn't Kemp an enemy of MAGA at this point? 

Depends on the day and latest Truth post

[Old Freak Nasty 821]

3 hours ago, Pancho said:

This is what a standard Black auntie sounds like

 

Indian aunties won't ask you.  They will gently put it in your mouth if you don't yourself, and shove it in if they have to.

[Hank Kingsley 21767]

MAGA dies with Trump. Hopefully whatever follows is not as monstrous. 

 

[Dahobbs 18311]

2 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Indian aunties won't ask you.  They will gently put it in your mouth if you don't yourself, and shove it in if they have to.

[tx 3 putt 78675]

2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

According to the brain trust in the inflation thread, you need a net worth over $100MM to afford that apartment and groceries.

 

[DaysOff 8201]

MAGA dies with Trump. Hopefully whatever follows is not as monstrous. 
 

The Peoples Temple is still around, but it was never the same after Jim ate a bullet.