2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Pancho 46270]

The “Harris plans to end the free speech” from twitter yesterday that was propped up by Elmo makes me so fucking ragey. At least this morning, you’re seeing outlets and media members tweeting that it isn’t true. 

 

Elmo is fucking obsessed with free speech

['stache 22131]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Dunno where tf to put this, but anyone who says their vote doesn't matter -

the Washington Public Lands Commissioner race was decided by 51 votes out of 800k cast.  Since WA does an all-party primary, with the top 2 advancing to November, a Republican grabbed the top spot, but 2nd place was between a Dem and a Rep.  The Dem won, initial vote and recount, and avoided the Dems being locked out of this race in November.

51 out 800,000 votes. 

Jamie Herrera Beutler (R) - 22.03%
Dave Upthegrove (D) - 20.82% (396,300)
Sue Kuehl Pederson (R) - 20.82% (396,249)

The actual vote was 57% Dem, 43% Rep, but the Dems ran 5 candidates and the Republicans ran 2.  WA Dems almost fucked themselves out of this race. 
 

Discussed above and not quite as close, but Tulsa’s mayor primary locked out a maga republican (Van Norman) by 438 votes. it was one of the worst turnouts ever, 26% of registered voters. City elections are non partisan but voter registration is easy to find and Van Norman was sure to make a big deal about how the other two were Hugo Chavez leftists (Nichols is pretty liberal, Keith is moderate life long dem). This primary result is significant because the runoff will be during the presidential election that would have brought way more magas to the poll, but now they have two dems to choose from, lol. Even if there was a maga on the ballot the city ballot doesn’t have straight line party option and the Trump only morons would have no idea who was who on a nonpartisan ballot. I wish all elections did the open primary and runoff system. 
 

['stache 22131]

Meant to add that the asshole is asking for a recount delaying certification and ballot printing for weeks. I read that a city recount has never changed the final by more than a dozen votes. A friend of mine lost a city council race a few years ago by I think ten votes. He asked for a recount and turned out he lost by six. You ain’t finding 400 votes in a recount dumbass.

Also, the Bradford guy who got 823 votes also campaigned as a republican, if he didn’t run his votes might have gone to Van Norman and put him in the runoff, lol.

Edited September 4 by 'stache

[Chuckie Finster 23038]

Ignoring the fact that he is referencing an incredibly poorly rated pollster to draw this conclusion, "Setting aside the recent good polls, there just hasn't been much positive state polling lately" is an objectively insane statement.

 

 

['stache 22131]

Is he seriously saying that if Harris moved up let’s say 2% after the convention that he’s just taking that out as if those respondents didn’t actually respond favorable to Harris? What the actual fuck? There has to be more to it than that, bumps are a big part of polling, whether they can be sustained is determined later based on subsequent campaigning.

Edited September 4 by 'stache

[Red Five 41703]

3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Ignoring the fact that he is referencing an incredibly poorly rated pollster to draw this conclusion, "Setting aside the recent good polls, there just hasn't been much positive state polling lately" is an objectively insane statement.

 

 

How old is the campaign? Six weeks? "Let's just set aside the positive polls post-convention, which was two weeks ago...."

['stache 22131]

I mean why not just go back to Biden’s last poll. “Setting aside the bump since the change in candidate we have her at 40%.” There seriously has to me more to it than his simplistic explanation.

Edited September 4 by 'stache

[Js1 87174]

Nate is objectively an awful pundit. Period. 

[Gatorubet 30710]

4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I mean why not just go back to Biden’s last poll. “Setting aside the bump since the change in candidate we have her at 40%.” There seriously has to me more to it than his simplistic explanation.

As long as it convinces people it’s so close they need to stand in line for four hours to vote for Harris, it’s fine with me.

[bluto 4995]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Nate is objectively an awful pundit. Period. 

I mean his name is Nate, no Nate’s are to be taken seriously. Like having a middle name of Wayne, you’re gonna murder at least one person. 

[heso 2863]

35 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Elmo is fucking obsessed with free speech

While constantly stifling any speech he doesn’t like on twitter 

[locodos 5590]

9 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

Code switching:

 

These guys are legends

 

[atomheartbevo 90636]

17 minutes ago, bluto said:

 Like having a middle name of Wayne, you’re gonna murder at least one person. 

[atomheartbevo 90636]

3 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

White guys do it too. The way I speak in court is not even remotely the same as when I’m at a pasture party in East Texas with a Shiner in my hand. Why is this surprising to anyone?

Look at how people talk to Siri/try to use voice-to-speech for text messages.

I have a bit of a drawl normally but I subconsciously make it go away when I'm using voice recognition to send text messages.

[atomheartbevo 90636]

8 hours ago, aggie08 said:

I probably sound like a broken record, but everything makes perfect sense when you envision every scenario through the lens of a professional wrestling fantastic. That's all Trump supporters are, and they crave the drama/absurdity of it all; it doesn't go any deeper than that. Vance had some heel moments, but Trump made him a face, so literally nothing else before that moment makes any difference whatsoever. Conversely, Pence was a loyal tag-team partner for 4 years, but Trump hit him on the back of the head with a steel chair at WrestleMania and told everyone that he's a heel now, so Pence is dead to them. They only care to see what they're told to see.

[MissingInAction 25554]

23 minutes ago, bluto said:

I mean his name is Nate, no Nate’s are to be taken seriously. Like having a middle name of Wayne, you’re gonna murder at least one person. 

Had a BIL named Nate. Made the mistake of hitting my sister.

She beat and stabbed him, allegedly.

[Js1 87174]

Turnip continuing to call for an October shutdown over the SAVE Act. Which…it’s already illegal for non-citizens to vote. 

Mike Johnson has not commented on that

Another GOP-pushed shutdown as an October surprise?

[Aqua Buddha 14803]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

The “Harris plans to end the free speech” from twitter yesterday that was propped up by Elmo makes me so fucking ragey. At least this morning, you’re seeing outlets and media members tweeting that it isn’t true. 

 

Elmo is fucking obsessed with free speech

And then he'll censor/ban someone from Twitter for something he doesn't like.

[atomheartbevo 90636]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Dunno where tf to put this, but anyone who says their vote doesn't matter -

the Washington Public Lands Commissioner race was decided by 51 votes out of 800k cast.  Since WA does an all-party primary, with the top 2 advancing to November, a Republican grabbed the top spot, but 2nd place was between a Dem and a Rep.  The Dem won, initial vote and recount, and avoided the Dems being locked out of this race in November.

Yep - 2018 Florida Senate election

Rick Scott:  4,099,505

Bill Nelson: 4,089,472

50.05%  vs  49.93%

10,033 votes out of 8.2 million votes.

[Pato del Muerto 53454]

40 minutes ago, locodos said:

These guys are legends

 

I believe this also qualifies

 

[Bateshorn 9989]

52 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Nate is objectively an awful pundit. Period. 

He's just a degenerate gambler with a blog at this point in his life.  Why don't you go pay to see some more flops, Nate, and then lecturer us how it's not just a classier version of old ladies shoving coins in the slots?

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Turnip continuing to call for an October shutdown over the SAVE Act. Which…it’s already illegal for non-citizens to vote. 

Mike Johnson has not commented on that

Another GOP-pushed shutdown as an October surprise?

This is such a wild thing.  Alternatively, they want a 6 month CR because they think they will be in a better place next March.  Conversely, if I'm the Democrats, I'd be nervous about a lame duck Omnibus.  What's to keep McConnell, after a Harris victory, and the chaos of a friendly transition from looking at Schumer and saying "Nice Victory, Chuck. It'd be a damn shame if the government was in shut down during Inauguration.  But I'm sure that won't happen....

Anyway, here's a list of my.... "priorities"... for the end of the year Omnibus." 

Edited September 4 by Bateshorn

[texastough 1142]

45 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

As long as it convinces people it’s so close they need to stand in line for four hours to vote for Harris, it’s fine with me.

The problem is it keeps Trump in the race. The other day I was wondering why polling at this point even matters, and figured that it should probably be ignored, unless it can sway the vote. So I googled a bit and from what I can tell, a close race helps turnout while a big lead depresses turnout for the trailing candidate. 

Media outlets want a close race both for $clicks$ and to try to sway the election. It is rage inducing but shouldn't be a surprise to anyone in here.

[Js1 87174]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

He's just a degenerate gambler with a blog at this point in his life.  Why don't you go pay to see some more flops, Nate, and then lecturer us how it's not just a classier version of old ladies shoving coins in the slots?

Not wrong. His work with polymarket makes me very skeptical. Because of who funds that betting site. 

[Schulz2.0 29280]

51 minutes ago, bluto said:

Like having a middle name of Wayne, you’re gonna murder at least one person. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

take what you can get.  it's either that or the bobbitt route

[Snake Diggity 4714]

The fact that Trump won in 2016 was shocking but understandable.  A lot of shit came together.  But the fact that 2020 was close, and that he is the GOP nominee in 2024, and that the race is still projected to be extremely close (PA +1 for Trump?!?!  Wtff?!?!)…it’s such a brutal indictment of our electorate.  Everyone knows what kind of shitbag he is.  How little character he has.  How quick he is to denigrate the vulnerable and blame others for his problems.  Everyone knows how he’ll govern.  How can this race be close?????

[CooterBrown 18287]

2 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The fact that Trump won in 2016 was shocking but understandable.  A lot of shit came together.  But the fact that 2020 was close, and that he is the GOP nominee in 2024, and that the race is still projected to be extremely close (PA +1 for Trump?!?!  Wtff?!?!)…it’s such a brutal indictment of our electorate.  Everyone knows what kind of shitbag he is.  How little character he has.  How quick he is to denigrate the vulnerable and blame others for his problems.  Everyone knows how he’ll govern.  How can this race be close?????

The hate Americans have for fellow Americans is the defining trait of our country.

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The fact that Trump won in 2016 was shocking but understandable.  A lot of shit came together.  But the fact that 2020 was close, and that he is the GOP nominee in 2024, and that the race is still projected to be extremely close (PA +1 for Trump?!?!  Wtff?!?!)…it’s such a brutal indictment of our electorate.  Everyone knows what kind of shitbag he is.  How little character he has.  How quick he is to denigrate the vulnerable and blame others for his problems.  Everyone knows how he’ll govern.  How can this race be close?????

I went into the BoA lobby yesterday at noon.  First weekday of the month, I realized too late.  That is the median voter.

[texastough 1142]

7 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The fact that Trump won in 2016 was shocking but understandable.  A lot of shit came together.  But the fact that 2020 was close, and that he is the GOP nominee in 2024, and that the race is still projected to be extremely close (PA +1 for Trump?!?!  Wtff?!?!)…it’s such a brutal indictment of our electorate.  Everyone knows what kind of shitbag he is.  How little character he has.  How quick he is to denigrate the vulnerable and blame others for his problems.  Everyone knows how he’ll govern.  How can this race be close?????

The truth is that for the vast majority of people, political ideology (conservative/liberal) is as deeply ingrained in their persona as their gender. They cannot go against it, so they end up going through all manner of mental gymnastics to justify who they are.

[Pancho 46270]

36 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not wrong. His work with polymarket makes me very skeptical. Because of who funds that betting site. 

Yup. I woke up to his tweets and got sad then I had pre workout and my brain woke up to realize the above.

 

[Js1 87174]

Poll of OR-05 has Harris + 9 and the Dem House candidate +1

Biden won the redrawn district by 7 and the current incumbent Rep won it by 2 in 2022

[tbone_ 14438]

The fact that Trump won in 2016 was shocking but understandable.  A lot of shit came together.  But the fact that 2020 was close, and that he is the GOP nominee in 2024, and that the race is still projected to be extremely close (PA +1 for Trump?!?!  Wtff?!?!)…it’s such a brutal indictment of our electorate.  Everyone knows what kind of shitbag he is.  How little character he has.  How quick he is to denigrate the vulnerable and blame others for his problems.  Everyone knows how he’ll govern.  How can this race be close?????

It’s as simple as a large portion of our electorate thinks electing any Democrat is tantamount to socialism or even communism - which most don’t even know what that means, just that it must be avoided at all costs - and they can live with Trump’s “personality quirks” because the alternative is simply worst thing that could ever be.

However, there are reds who are rethinking this. Like I said up thread, we’ll find out how many soon.

[texasdago 7768]

4 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

White guys do it too. The way I speak in court is not even remotely the same as when I’m at a pasture party in East Texas with a Shiner in my hand. Why is this surprising to anyone?

Yup... you know you might speak one way in NY or even Houston but when you're talking to someone in a backwoods like Winters, your long-lost Texas accent pops in to say howdy!

[The Dog 44854]

Did he really say this:

 

[Pato del Muerto 53454]

15 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

It’s as simple as a large portion of our electorate thinks electing any Democrat is tantamount to socialism or even communism - which most don’t even know what that means, just that it must be avoided at all costs - and they can live with Trump’s “personality quirks” because the alternative is simply worst thing that could ever be.

However, there are reds who are rethinking this. Like I said up thread, we’ll find out how many soon.

Even though they’ve lived with a dem potus quite often and the communism thing never happens and jeez how horrible was it under Clinton, obama, and Biden?  

[Red Five 41703]

34 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The fact that Trump won in 2016 was shocking but understandable.  A lot of shit came together.  But the fact that 2020 was close, and that he is the GOP nominee in 2024, and that the race is still projected to be extremely close (PA +1 for Trump?!?!  Wtff?!?!)…it’s such a brutal indictment of our electorate.  Everyone knows what kind of shitbag he is.  How little character he has.  How quick he is to denigrate the vulnerable and blame others for his problems.  Everyone knows how he’ll govern.  How can this race be close?????

Throw out everything else horrible about him, and just focus on this one thing: He famously will do anything for a buck. And he owes, shit I forget, half a billion to the state of New York? Just that one. single. thing. is 100% disqualifying. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

The numbers for black and hispanic voters going to Trump is starting to get concerning.  But the topline numbers suggest similar stuff as 2020.  Does that mean there is a white shift that offsets it?

[Js1 87174]

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

The numbers for black and hispanic voters going to Trump is starting to get concerning.  But the topline numbers suggest similar stuff as 2020.  Does that mean there is a white shift that offsets it?

Are you just looking at cross tabs? Bc the large sample polls of those voters do not show giant shifts. Small sample size cross tabs can be really wonky 

[G650 14437]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Did he really say this:

 

Broadcast that shit far and wide

[Chopper 17430]

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Just now, Js1 said:

Are you just looking at cross tabs? Bc the large sample polls of those voters do not show giant shifts. Small sample size cross tabs can be really wonky 

Its something that has shown up over dozens of polls throughout the year as far as I can tell.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Its something that has shown up over dozens of polls throughout the year as far as I can tell.

Quote

In the past month of high-quality polls, Ms. Harris has a 78-14 lead among Black voters and a 52-41 lead among Hispanic voters. Our New York Times/Siena College battleground state surveys showed similar results, with Ms. Harris ahead 80-15 among Black voters and 52-42 among Hispanic ones. In each case, Ms. Harris is about halfway between Mr. Biden’s weakened standing before he dropped out of the race and his stronger estimated finish in the 2020 election.

While this is certainly closer to typical, “normal” is not quite the right term for the current numbers. Mr. Trump’s tallies today — 14 percent support among Black voters and 41 percent among Hispanic voters — would still represent the highest level of backing a Republican presidential candidate has received in pre-election polls since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act in 1964.

some discussion in nyt today.  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/04/upshot/kamala-harris-trump-polls.html

[tbone_ 14438]

Even though they’ve lived with a dem potus quite often and the communism thing never happens and jeez how horrible was it under Clinton, obama, and Biden?  

Are you kidding me? Our country was a complete and total shit hole under those administrations. Fox News tells me this all day every day. So I’m worried for the future of this country.

[TeeDubya 3362]

2 hours ago, 'stache said:

Discussed above and not quite as close, but Tulsa’s mayor primary locked out a maga republican (Van Norman) by 438 votes. it was one of the worst turnouts ever, 26% of registered voters. City elections are non partisan but voter registration is easy to find and Van Norman was sure to make a big deal about how the other two were Hugo Chavez leftists (Nichols is pretty liberal, Keith is moderate life long dem). This primary result is significant because the runoff will be during the presidential election that would have brought way more magas to the poll, but now they have two dems to choose from, lol. Even if there was a maga on the ballot the city ballot doesn’t have straight line party option and the Trump only morons would have no idea who was who on a nonpartisan ballot. I wish all elections did the open primary and runoff system. 
 

 

And Keith should cruise to an easy victory, since most of the MAGA voters will actually weigh voting for a white woman  as less of a mortal sin than voting for a black man…

to the MAGA, racism is a bigger influence than misogyny. 

1 hour ago, bluto said:

I mean his name is Nate, no Nate’s are to be taken seriously. Like having a middle name of Wayne, you’re gonna murder at least one person. 

Don’t sleep on Ray as a middle name.  I had a cousin named Stanley Ray.

He was rough….  He’d vanish for years at a time.  Finally figured out he was serving prison sentences….

He would reappear, tell us a story about finding Jesus, and getting his life back on track.  Then disappear again….

Edited September 4 by TeeDubya

[SimonBolivar 11063]

56 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I went into the BoA lobby yesterday at noon.  First weekday of the month, I realized too late.  That is the median voter.

      It was worse than normal because it was also the 3rd which is when many Social Security checks come in + off of a Monday holiday. I don't blame most Surlyites for forgetting about the MAGA base. I forget about them over the weekend too when I deal with my normal social circle. Then when the doors open on any Monday morning, they come shuffling in and I'm reminded just how helpless they really are when it comes to something simple like banking. They lack many of the easiest skills that we take for granted, just last week I had one of them come in and try to cash a check that was made payable to the RNC. 

      She showed me the mailer that she received, and it was a letter saying that they were going to match any donation that she made to the Trump campaign and the "check" was really just a prop. Her response was pretty amazing. 

"I already gave to him last month. Why would he be asking for more? I think he's just giving me money back for supporting him because he takes care of his supporters."

There are millions of people walking around like that, but they aren't the entirety of his base of course. You'd be surprised at the number of people that seem perfectly normal that have recurring payments to the Heritage Foundation coming out of their account every month.

 

Edited September 4 by SimonBolivar

[Chopper 17430]

Nate Silver:

-has lizard brain

-is a degnerate gambler

-is deeply conflicted because he's a degenerate gambler

-and has a webstie he's trying to make a name for that's all about gambling, so even more of a conflict.

The less y'all mention moronic Nate Silver, the better off we'll all be for it. Thank you. 

[Gatorubet 30710]

1 hour ago, texastough said:

So I googled a bit and from what I can tell, a close race helps turnout while a big lead depresses turnout for the trailing candidate. 

This is certainly an historic election principle.   But anything historic is pre-Trump phenomena.   And almost every historical election does not involve the ending of abortion rights and the elevation of the most unprincipled, dishonest and unethical piece of crap we’ve ever seen to the highest office of the land. 

Since we have seen undeniable signs of new democratic energy, increased voter registration, the election framed as the end of democracy, etc., this election presents very different variables.     I do not see that a close election could conceivably result in less Democrats coming out to beat Trump.   I think a close election gives a greater impetus to vote than if Harris was six points ahead, 

[4th&Five 41985]

8 minutes ago, G650 said:

Broadcast that shit far and wide

The first question at the debate to Trump should be "Did Joe Biden win the 2020 election?"

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

      It was worse than normal because it was also the 3rd which is when many Social Security checks come in + off of a Monday holiday. I don't blame most Surlyites for forgetting about the MAGA base. I forget about them over the weekend too when I deal with my normal social circle then when the doors open on any Monday morning, they come shuffling in and I'm reminded just how helpless they really are when it comes to something simple like banking. They lack many of the easiest skills that we take for granted, just last week I had one of them come in and try to cash a check that was made payable to the RNC. 

      She showed me the mailer that she received, and it was a letter saying that they were going to match any donation that she made to the Trump campaign and the "check" was really just a prop. Her response was pretty amazing. 

"I already gave to him last month. Why would he be asking for more? I think he's just giving me money back for supporting him because he takes care of his supporters."

There are millions of people walking around like that, but they aren't the entirety of his base of course. You'd be surprised at the number of people that seem perfectly normal that have recurring payments to the Heritage Foundation coming out of their account every month.

 

since my harrowing experience yesterday allowed me to put faces to this, its even more depressing than normal.

[Chopper 17430]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

some discussion in nyt today.  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/04/upshot/kamala-harris-trump-polls.html

This is dumb young men voting against their own self-interest because a)frail masculinity and b)crypto.