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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

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Js1

Js1 85270

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4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yet when I checked in on my spam catching email account, there was an email from the Harris campaign saying they needed more money or else difficult decisions would have to be made on where to direct their efforts.

Really?

Pretty typical campaign scare tactic. 

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Fudge Nuggets

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Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Pretty typical campaign scare tactic. 

Yeah, no shit.  The absurdity was mind bottling.

There was another email showing the results of the latest Silver hack job bemoaning that Harris is a huge underdog so of course needs more money.  I realize those emails come from unmonitored accounts, but I replied with a simple "Nate Silver is dumbass."

Edited by Fudge Nuggets
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48054

Posted
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51 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Childcare doesn't start at age 2 or 3 for majority of parents in the US. It starts at 6-16 weeks old depending on birth circumstances, FMLA, and vacation time.

Researching childcare back in the spring because these fucking places, especially the decent to good ones, have ridiculous wait times to get in was eye opening price wise. The really nice places were $300-350 a week. We were able to find one that is nice and relatively affordable and that shit is $260 a week. We also looked at a "budget" daycares there were $175-190 a week and they were just very trashy looking facilities that we were hesitant to use. In home care is roughly that $175-200 range as well. This is all in San Antonio but I couldn't imagine the prices of some locations in Houston, Austin or DFW. You're 100% right that that 10% "discount" for having multiple kids go there is laughable. It makes me not want to have another kid because we'd be looking at $20-25k a year for 2 kids in childcare alone at our nice "affordable" facility.

I mean, we had to do the same research 7 years ago. And we had friends who were on the wait list at places like Goddard or Primrose for over a year and ended up getting notices a year after their first was born saying "Hey, you're next on the waitlist." Uh, thanks. We got extremely lucky that a very nice place opened up about 4 blocks from our house, and therefore there wasn't a waitlist when we signed up. Which was like 6 months before our son was born. The waitlist about a month later when we suggested it to a friend was 3 months. I'm sure by the time we enrolled our son it was 6-12. 

My wife and I do ok, but I have no idea how a family with an income of less than 100k affords childcare. Because as you said, the places that were $800 a month were literally like a run-down house next to a tire shop and we were not super comfortable there. I've heard some people find like licensed home daycare options for a mom who will turn who house into a daycare and have 5-6 kids there. Except my first instinct is "That woman must be insane. No thanks."

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Js1

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Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Suburbanites got us into this trumpy hellscape, the least they can do is help pull us out

You have to give them some credit for how much they've flipped since then.  At least somebody showed some damn growth and remorse for 2016.  

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Js1

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Posted
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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Emerson -

CA Harris 60-36 (Schiff 55-33)

FL Trump 50-45 (Scott 46-45)

OH Trump 53-43 (Brown 46-44)

TX Trump 50-46 (Cruz 48-44)

These are decent polls, since in 2022, Emerson was pretty far to the right on most of the outcomes, sometimes has much as 4-7 points in favor of the Republican. 

UT-Austin poll of Texas has it 49-44 Trump, so not that different from the Emerson poll (Cruz up 44-36, with 14% undecided - weird poll) 

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atomheartbevo

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Posted
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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yet when I checked in on my spam catching email account, there was an email from the Harris campaign saying they needed more money or else difficult decisions would have to be made on where to direct their efforts.

Really?

While campaigns do play up the "things are really close, we need your help", a lot of "campaign" emails are from spammers or from down-ballot races, so you need to check the mail headers and the links in the actual message to see if they are legit. 

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atomheartbevo

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Posted
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4 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I'm Missouri on this:  fucking show me.  

Paxton has been suing cities/counties in Texas who are trying to increase their voter turnout - just this week he sued Bexar County.

And Paxton and Hot Wheels want full control over Harris County elections and have moved in that direction, and made it publicly clear.  

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13508

Posted
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15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

While campaigns do play up the "things are really close, we need your help", a lot of "campaign" emails are from spammers or from down-ballot races, so you need to check the mail headers and the links in the actual message to see if they are legit. 

100%. If an email is tempting you to donate, don't click on it. Go find the campaign's real website and donate there. Even if they tell you that donating via the email will trigger an automated match. That's just a psychological trick. In reality the match is going to be made regardless of any donation.

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DigglerontheHoof

DigglerontheHoof 21175

Posted
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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Paxton has been suing cities/counties in Texas who are trying to increase their voter turnout - just this week he sued Bexar County.

And Paxton and Hot Wheels want full control over Harris County elections and have moved in that direction, and made it publicly clear.  

Flying Sci-Fi GIF by Feliks Tomasz Konczakowski

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BurntOrange&White

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54 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I've heard some people find like licensed home daycare options for a mom who will turn who house into a daycare and have 5-6 kids there. Except my first instinct is "That woman must be insane. No thanks."

Yeah we looked at those and I reference their pricing as well in the post. The thing with those places is if the home daycare lady is sick or goes on vacation then you're kind of fucked for care that week or few days. Where as at an actual facility with staff they have others who could fill in and your child can have care.

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Nice Guy Eddie

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Posted
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6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Paxton has been suing cities/counties in Texas who are trying to increase their voter turnout - just this week he sued Bexar County.

And Paxton and Hot Wheels want full control over Harris County elections and have moved in that direction, and made it publicly clear.  

you just know they have a legal team trying to find a loophole to take over Harris County like they did with HISD. Perhaps add a new law that only applies to counties with more than 4m people.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105057

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5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

you just know they have a legal team trying to find a loophole to take over Harris County like they did with HISD. Perhaps add a new law that only applies to counties with more than 4m people.

Bingo.  That is all coming.  It's a full-on partisan war to tilt elections/disenfranchise entire areas that might vote Dem.  They have OPENLY FUCKING STATED THAT IS THEIR INTENT.

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SydneyCarton

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10 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Flying Sci-Fi GIF by Feliks Tomasz Konczakowski

There's nothing to believe, They've actively taken over elections in Harris County. That's a fact. The question is if it's out of any real fear or just general power consolidation. I lean towards the latter. 

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quigley

quigley 1558

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11 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'd like to know where that kid hid his gun before blowing away 4 innocent people and injuring 9 others.  We know he was in class, got up, and left.  Did he hide the gun in the school?  What "security" measures would have prevented that?  Are they going to TSA-search every student upon entry?  Really?  Has Vance ever been anywhere near a middle school or high school when first bell is about to ring?

Easy fix

Metal detectors going into every school building classroom.

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quigley

quigley 1558

Posted
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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yet when I checked in on my spam catching email account, there was an email from the Harris campaign saying they needed more money or else difficult decisions would have to be made on where to direct their efforts.

Really?

Presidential candidates get plenty of $.

Donate down ballot -- senate, house, state congressional/judicial elections.

Your $100 bucks to a state senate candidate may get you a phone call thanking you directly (not necessarily an incentive to donating).

 

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quigley

quigley 1558

Posted
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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yeah, no shit.  The absurdity was mind bottling.

There was another email showing the results of the latest Silver hack job bemoaning that Harris is a huge underdog so of course needs more money.  I realize those emails come from unmonitored accounts, but I replied with a simple "Nate Silver is dumbass."

Silver's ridiculous Covid takes should have cancelled him.

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

Posted
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48 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Texas is a lost cause.  This state is a beacon for shitty humans and they're moving here in droves. 

We have to keep trying. Texas is way too big of a prize to give up on.

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Js1

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14 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

Unsupported narrative building. They missed his support even worse in 2020. 
 

https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf

My god dude, we fucking GET IT

Covid and non-response biases made 2020 very hard to poll. Not to mention NYT/Siena coming out and admitting they didn’t include someone who indicated they were voting for Trump and hung up the phone without finishing the survey.

At this point, if you voted in 2016/2020 is part of screening likely voters. Unless you truly believe Trump is somehow going to add MORE voters that didn’t show up the last 2 times, the screen should be capturing all of those voters who only show up for Trump. Outfits like Trafalgar and Emerson added several points to Trump’s total to balance that, others did not. (ps, NYT/Siena said they are counting those this year)

It’s truly hard to see how Trump is going to ADD millions of more voters, when young voters, especially young black women, are registering in huge numbers for the first time. 2020 turnout was crazy high due to Covid. 

 

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quigley

quigley 1558

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51 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Texas is a lost cause.  This state is a beacon for shitty humans and they're moving here in droves. 

 

46 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And yet Paxton and Hot Wheels are scared shitless of the big cities turning out the vote.

 

Texas is one Ben Wikler (WI) or Stacy Abrams away from been a toss up.

Tyrants feed off exhaustion.

Fight the power. Put up your own sign / bumper sticker / donate / phone bank.

Do something.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

My god dude, we fucking GET IT

Covid and non-response biases made 2020 very hard to poll. Not to mention NYT/Siena coming out and admitting they didn’t include someone who indicated they were voting for Trump and hung up the phone without finishing the survey.

At this point, if you voted in 2016/2020 is part of screening likely voters. Unless you truly believe Trump is somehow going to add MORE voters that didn’t show up the last 2 times, the screen should be capturing all of those voters who only show up for Trump

Its truly hard to see how Trump is going to ADD millions of more voters, when young voters, especially young black women, are registering in huge numbers for the first time 

 

They obviously didn't get it.  That's why I posted it.  And you always point to 2020 being aberrant because of COVID, which I appreciate as a fact that doesn't rely on that narrative, because the narrative is not true.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89625

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32 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

you just know they have a legal team trying to find a loophole to take over Harris County like they did with HISD. Perhaps add a new law that only applies to counties with more than 4m people.

27 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Bingo.  That is all coming.  It's a full-on partisan war to tilt elections/disenfranchise entire areas that might vote Dem.  They have OPENLY FUCKING STATED THAT IS THEIR INTENT.

I'm impressed that San Antonio is willing to tangle with Paxton/How Wheels given that they can see what's happening with Houston/Harris County.  They are trying hard to register new voters in spite of Paxton.

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C-Man

C-Man 27184

Posted
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10 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I agree, however we will still have soulless ghouls like Mitch McConnell running around, so we will still have to combat him and people of his ilk.  This isn't a one off battle, it's going to be a long fight if we want real change.  (Though I will say, the day McConnell turns room temperature, I'm not lowering my flag to half mast, I'm going to double the flag pole size and fly Old Glory as high as I can).  

 

9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Think Tim Robinson GIF by NETFLIX

Running, Grand Mal-ing -- whatever it takes

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25907

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

 

 

I don't know about the rest of the country, but out here nurses and firefighters make a shitload of money.  They don't belong in the same mention as teachers.

Edited by Gil Bang
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Js1

Js1 85270

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49 minutes ago, quigley said:

 

Texas is one Ben Wikler (WI) or Stacy Abrams away from been a toss up.

Tyrants feed off exhaustion.

Fight the power. Put up your own sign / bumper sticker / donate / phone bank.

Do something.

That should have been Beto. But he threw it away with a vanity run for POTUS. Dumbass 

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10403

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23 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

6 years of education implies a master's degree.  Is there any state in which one must even have a bachelor's degree to work in daycare?

I'd bet very few states, if any, require more than a high school (or equivalent) degree plus maybe CPR certification. 

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Js1

Js1 85270

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1 minute ago, Gil Bang said:

I don't know about the rest of the country, but out here nurses and firefighters make a shitload of money.  They don't belong in the same mention as teachers.

They don’t but I am fine with them getting a tax break. They do one of the most dangerous jobs in the world and, unlike cops, don’t murder people with impunity 

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G650

G650 14229

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2 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

I don't know about the rest of the country, but out here nurses and firefighters make a shitload of money.  They don't belong in the same mention as teachers.

Not here. The biggest draw to being a firefighter here is the schedule.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45881

Posted
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1 minute ago, SquishMitten said:

I'd bet very few states, if any, require more than a high school (or equivalent) degree plus maybe CPR certification. 

That's my take.  My wife has "taught" the youngest preschoolers for 25 years -- typically 2 and 3 year olds.  She has a degree from UT, but plenty of her peers don't have anything more than an associate's degree, if that.

And yes, they do continuing education (including CPR) every year.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48054

Posted
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4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

their union and benefits are pretty damn good though

Eh. They had to sue the city and the last Mayor to get THAT pay raise, and it was their first in ages. I assume the benefits are great, and I assume they also have a pretty good pension, but the fact is that 60k in Houston is going to be pretty tough to live on, honestly. And Houston was losing firefighters they'd trained to smaller areas around Houston as recently as the last few years. They're not spitting distance from Teachers here at all. 

 

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