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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I would have agreed until Trump. To the MAGA crowd what does looking Presidential mean? He says what they want to hear. He was on TV (which we for some stupid reason glorify), etc.

He fits the image of what they think a rich and powerful businessman looks like.  These people are generally rural/exurban and have no idea what an actual CEO or billionaire looks like.  In real life, they're slender, in shape, wear a quarter zip and form fitting jeans and Allbirds.  Women would wear a pant suit or a blazer with jeans and smart shoes.  

We all know this on this board because of our backgrounds but they don't.

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I think for Kamala it's an audition to people who don't really want to vote for Trump but hear all the dumb shit about how she's a communist or socialist that will force your children to get sex change operations and let your daughters be raped by migrants. She just needs to speak about her platform, answer the questions, and not get baited by his bullshit. She needs to look like a better alternative to the masses who seem to not understand that Trump will be bad for all of us. She needs to project confidence that she can govern. I think a lot of people are fine with a Trump 2nd term because they don't think it will hurt them personally. I also think people are tired of the bullshit Trump vomits out and would prefer to vote for someone who wasn't a piece of shit. The debate means nothing to Trump. He's a known commodity. It means everything to Kamala because it's the final piece she needs to demonstrate to the "undecided" that she should be President. To do that, she can't get down in the muck with a pig. Answer a few of his lies with a fact about what you plan to do. Turn his negative into your positive. This is a job interview. She definitely needs to answer every question as it is asked. That will be completely different from Trump who will just push through with his talking point of bullshit. 

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Gallup Party ID (with leaners)

Dems 49
GOP 46

Dems +8 from the June poll and GOP -1 - god, June 2024 is going to go down as probably the most demoralized Dems have been since November 2016.

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12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She's not trying to win the MAGA crowd.  She's trying to win the soft Republicans (Haley voters, mostly) and independents. 

She has to look presidential, look younger/more energetic next to Dump, no flubs/gaffes and just make the voters above think "oh...it won't be the end of the world if she wins" 

Agree.

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  Their communities are shit, and are getting shittier.  And instead of looking for positive policies that can improve their prospects (yes, including moving to cities), they think "if we really focus on being dicks to hispanics, and super-hate Hatians and accuse them of eating cats, THAT will fix everything!"  It's the dumbest fucking outlook....but it's also human nature, because it is 100% blaming others, and 0% taking responsibility for your own fate and future.

Try to bring in broadband, and economic development?  Ensure that our local schools prepare our kids for higher ed, and make sure they have decent higher ed opportunities?  NAAAAH.  Let's build a wall, and be cruel as fuck to those brown people who live at the edge of our small town in a cluster of mobile homes, all of them working in the meat processing plant that is one of the area's only economic engines (and to be clear, WE sure as shit won't take a job there -- that's hard work, in hard conditions, no thank you)!  That approach will turn this town into a paradise!  I have no idea how, it just will!

WSJ had a great story some time back about the demographic collapse in the state of West Virginia, due to everyone moving away, low birth rate, and no one moving there.  The state is all olds at this point to the point they can't keep some businesses open five days a week because they don't have young workers.

However, their state ledge was obsessed with immigration at the border.  No ideas about how to get people to move to WV but just keep certain people out.  Meanwhile, the local restaurants can't stay open for dinner anymore.

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15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She's not trying to win the MAGA crowd.  She's trying to win the soft Republicans (Haley voters, mostly) and independents. 

She has to look presidential, look younger/more energetic next to Dump, no flubs/gaffes and just make the voters above think "oh...it won't be the end of the world if she wins" 

So much this.  As long as the tiny sliver of the electorate that can't make up it's mind in a normal fashion comes away from the debate saying "I can live with her" she'll have won. The failure to do that is what sunk Hilary, particularily because a slice of the electorate decided to YOLO Trump before all of his awful Trumpiness was on full display.   If she can manage to turn that "I can live with this" into "I like this lady!"  then she can actually put a landslide on the table. 

The ugly truth for democrats is they haven't run an actually likeable entity since Obama (and I'd argue the 2008 version, not the 2012).  Joe was old and on fumes by 2020.  But you gotta go back to 1996 to find a candidate that made America say "This guy fucks!"  (Literally and rhetorically). 

 

Edited by Bateshorn
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10 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I would have agreed until Trump. To the MAGA crowd what does looking Presidential mean? He says what they want to hear. He was on TV (which we for some stupid reason glorify), etc.

MAGA crowd doesn't care about "winning" debates. They just want racism and cruelty. Hillary won every debate but lost the election for about five or six reasons.

  1. The cumulative effect of decades of right-wing lies and unhinged narratives
  2. The timing of the Comey letter against the backdrop of those lies and narratives
  3. The incompetency of her campaign allowing the Blue Wall (WI, MI, PA) to collapse by ignoring it on the trail
  4. The novelty of Trump and his populist vision
  5. A naive electorate after eight smooth years of Obama that couldn't understand how bad things could possibly get (a mismanaged pandemic with daily death rates exceeding that of 9/11, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, intentional family separations, the assassination of an Iranian General for absolutely no reason, January 6th, etc.)
  6. An antidemocratic system where the popular vote winner does not become president that was established in order to appease slavers in the 1780s

 

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3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

WSJ had a great story some time back about the demographic collapse in the state of West Virginia, due to everyone moving away, low birth rate, and no one moving there.  The state is all olds at this point to the point they can't keep some businesses open five days a week because they don't have young workers.

However, their state ledge was obsessed with immigration at the border.  No ideas about how to get people to move to WV but just keep certain people out.  Meanwhile, the local restaurants can't stay open for dinner anymore.

Sounds like Ohio. 

Brain drain is real

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4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

WSJ had a great story some time back about the demographic collapse in the state of West Virginia, due to everyone moving away, low birth rate, and no one moving there.  The state is all olds at this point to the point they can't keep some businesses open five days a week because they don't have young workers.

However, their state ledge was obsessed with immigration at the border.  No ideas about how to get people to move to WV but just keep certain people out.  Meanwhile, the local restaurants can't stay open for dinner anymore.

Sign me up for a complete collapse of WV and a clean slate. It's one of the most beatiful places in the US. Let these people die and lets repopulate it normal people looking for cheap, beautiful land. Becuase many of the best places in the US are either red AF or super fucking expensive already. 

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MAGA crowd doesn't care about "winning" debates. They just want racism and cruelty. Hillary won every debate but lost the election for about five or six reasons.
  1. The cumulative effect of decades of right-wing lies and unhinged narratives
  2. The timing of the Comey letter against the backdrop of those lies and narratives
  3. The incompetency of her campaign allowing the Blue Wall (WI, MI, PA) to collapse by ignoring it on the trail
  4. The novelty of Trump and his populist vision
  5. A naive electorate after eight smooth years of Obama that couldn't understand how bad things could possibly get (a mismanaged pandemic with daily death rates exceeding that of 9/11, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, intentional family separations, the assassination of an Iranian General for absolutely no reason, January 6th, etc.)
  6. An antidemocratic system where the popular vote winner does not become president that was established in order to appease slavers in the 1780s
 

Aside from the Comey letter, I’d argue his “you’d be in jail” comment to Hillary during one of the debates was the single biggest moment in the 2016 election cycle.
It tickled the same emotions as a walk off home run for any person who had spent the last few decades being told to hate Hillary. Luckily I don’t think he’s sharp enough to replicate that this go-round.
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5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Sign me up for a complete collapse of WV and a clean slate. It's one of the most beatiful places in the US. Let these people die and lets repopulate it normal people looking for cheap, beautiful land. Becuase many of the best places in the US are either red AF or super fucking expensive already. 

WV really should be a lot better as a state.  It's very pretty and with it's proximity to the cities in the NE, it should easily be a good remote/WFH/2nd option for a lot of people.  There are a lot of rural places in America that are ugly and in the complete butt fuck middle of nowhere.  WV is not one of them.

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I was just listening to the Pod Save America guys from this morning and one of them made the point that that Trump’s ceiling is his floor.  Kamala has energized 9/10 of the Biden 2020 voters-the debate is chance for the last tenth.  
 

I’m hopeful that’s an oversimplification because  I would think new voters replacing olds would have resulted in a stronger starting advantage for a Dem.  

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17 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

So much this.  As long as the tiny sliver of the electorate that can't make up it's mind in a normal fashion comes away from the debate saying "I can live with her" she'll have won. The failure to do that is what sunk Hilary, particularily because a slice of the electorate decided to YOLO Trump before all of his awful Trumpiness was on full display.   If she can manage to turn that "I can live with this" into "I like this lady!"  then she can actually put a landslide on the table. 

The ugly truth for democrats is they haven't run an actually likeable entity since Obama (and I'd argue the 2008 version, not the 2012).  Joe was old and on fumes by 2020.  But you gotta go back to 1996 to find a candidate that made America say "This guy fucks!"  (Literally and rhetorically). 

 

I was watching TV last night and MSNBC was showing the 2016 debates.  Now I voted for Hillary and all, but I had the sound off and thought, "damn, she looks smug."

10 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


Aside from the Comey letter, I’d argue his “you’d be in jail” comment to Hillary during one of the debates was the single biggest moment in the 2016 election cycle.
It tickled the same emotions as a walk off home run for any person who had spent the last few decades being told to hate Hillary. Luckily I don’t think he’s sharp enough to replicate that this go-round.

It would be pretty funny if Trump did something so egregious that Marchand puts him in jail in the weeks leading up to the election.

 

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13 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

WSJ had a great story some time back about the demographic collapse in the state of West Virginia, due to everyone moving away, low birth rate, and no one moving there.  The state is all olds at this point to the point they can't keep some businesses open five days a week because they don't have young workers.

However, their state ledge was obsessed with immigration at the border.  No ideas about how to get people to move to WV but just keep certain people out.  Meanwhile, the local restaurants can't stay open for dinner anymore.

It's fitting that Manchin is the Senator of note from that state. He embodies everything that is wrong about politicians and using the fear and anger of the depressed populus to acquire more money and power. The masses stay poor while he enriches himself and they keep voting him back into office because "the other" is why they don't have anything. Not the guy who should be doing more to evolve that state out of being a coal industry based state.

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1 minute ago, Bullneck said:

I was watching TV last night and MSNBC was showing the 2016 debates.  Now I voted for Hillary and all, but I had the sound off and thought, "damn, she looks smug."

She really was. But she wasn't exactly wrong about it. He wasn't a serious candidate but she was too much of a flawed candidate. I hope everyone around Kamala learned from that and doesn't make the same mistake tonight. Keep her on point. Stay on your message. Don't fall for his bullshit. Don't take the bait like Biden did. 

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1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

I’ve wondered about this.  For one thing, if a rural/suburban wife in a swing/red state wants to vote Kamala, you know she’s “silent” otherwise her hubbie will beat that ass.

Maybe, but I think the majority of those women are deep down the rabbit hole or are so self loathing that they believe they should be second class citizens... 'cause "Jesus is Here!"

Heard a BBC interview with a Female Missouri politician who wrote the abortion ban there.  She sounded normal, unless you listened to the meaning of her words.  Life begins at conception, morality(hers only I assume) are a valid basis for law etc.. tl/dr she was pissed about abortion rights referendum.

Also we have a Supreme Court Justice who is also a female and a complete whackjob.  At some point you just have to realize that all women are not secretly the same.  

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2 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Fuck that, make it a national park.  

Beautiful land needs to be as expensive as fuck.

 

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yep, Beltway Bandits would invade overnight.

You have a point, cheap land is what got it populated in the first place. That being said, I'm 45 and have done ok so far in life. And California is completely outside of my price range for anywhere I'd wave to live there. Just give me some place with a great view and a few acres that doesn't cost 2 million plus. Becuase that's the shit I see now anywhere else I'd want to live. And that's basically Texas Hill Country. 

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37 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

He fits the image of what they think a rich and powerful businessman looks like.  These people are generally rural/exurban and have no idea what an actual CEO or billionaire looks like.  In real life, they're slender, in shape, wear a quarter zip and form fitting jeans and Allbirds.  Women would wear a pant suit or a blazer with jeans and smart shoes.  

We all know this on this board because of our backgrounds but they don't.

He’s a poor person’s idea of a rich man, a dumb person’s idea of a smart man, and a weak person’s idea of a strong man. 

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13 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I was just listening to the Pod Save America guys from this morning and one of them made the point that that Trump’s ceiling is his floor.  Kamala has energized 9/10 of the Biden 2020 voters-the debate is chance for the last tenth.  
 

Trump's 2 popular vote totals: 46.1 and 46.8.  Remind me why suddenly he's going to win 48+%?

Even in the states he barely won in 2016 - 47.5% in Michigan, 48.18% in PA, 47.22% in WI.
2020 - 47.8% in Michigan, 48.7% in PA, 48.8% in Wisconsin. 

He didn't really add much to his totals - Sort of seems to cap out at 46-47% nationally in the PV and 47/48% in the swing states. 

Branch it out to more states - he just isn't a 50%+ guy. 2016 had Stein/Johnson to help him. 2020 had Jorgensen and Hawkins, who did nothing.   2024 has Stein (barely at 1% anywhere) and RFK is out in most places, but he's hurting Trump way more than he's hurting Harris. 

2016 - 45% in MN, 45.5% in NV, 49.8% in NC, 48% in AZ, 51% in GA, 
2020 - 45% in MN, 47.6% in NV, 49.9% in NC, 49% in AZ, 49% in GA

9 minutes ago, mdmost said:

She really was. But she wasn't exactly wrong about it. He wasn't a serious candidate but she was too much of a flawed candidate. I hope everyone around Kamala learned from that and doesn't make the same mistake tonight. Keep her on point. Stay on your message. Don't fall for his bullshit. Don't take the bait like Biden did. 

She's so much better than Hillary.  No scandals, no 20 year war on her reputation by Fox News/talk radio.  Go look at how much time she's spending in the swing states, versus Hillary. 

Edited by Js1
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6 minutes ago, locodos said:

Maybe, but I think the majority of those women are deep down the rabbit hole or are so self loathing that they believe they should be second class citizens... 'cause "Jesus is Here!"

Also on the Pod Save America ep from this am, they discussed the Times/Sienna poll and mentioned that 85% of those polled believed that a Trump victory would be better for men.  Obviously that’s a majority of respondents from both genders.  

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

She's so much better than Hillary.  No scandals, no 20 year war on her reputation by Fox News/talk radio.  Go look at how much time she's spending in the swing states, versus Hillary. 

Oh definitely. I'm just worried about tonight. Tonight could be the final piece to secure the victory, short of some massive October disaster. She has the chance to make Trump look like Biden did in the last debate. Let him do it because all know he won't be able to control himself or if he does he will look very low energy and just vomiting his usual grievances and empty platforms.  

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8 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Also on the Pod Save America ep from this am, they discussed the Times/Sienna poll and mentioned that 85% of those polled believed that a Trump victory would be better for men.  Obviously that’s a majority of respondents from both genders.  

Better for men how?

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21 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

You have a point, cheap land is what got it populated in the first place. That being said, I'm 45 and have done ok so far in life. And California is completely outside of my price range for anywhere I'd wave to live there. Just give me some place with a great view and a few acres that doesn't cost 2 million plus. Becuase that's the shit I see now anywhere else I'd want to live. And that's basically Texas Hill Country. 

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/41724-SE-66th-St_Snoqualmie_WA_98065_M21606-30603?from=srp-list-card
 

As an example.  Since much of the homesite work has been done, you could drop a very nice 400k house there and be set for a million or less. 

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35 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


Aside from the Comey letter, I’d argue his “you’d be in jail” comment to Hillary during one of the debates was the single biggest moment in the 2016 election cycle.
It tickled the same emotions as a walk off home run for any person who had spent the last few decades being told to hate Hillary. Luckily I don’t think he’s sharp enough to replicate that this go-round.

 

Don't kid yourself.   He's just looking for the right time to say that.  Shit, he said this weekend he would jail election officials.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Better for men how?

Remember these are poll questions (which I haven’t seen) so the responses are probably two or four different options.  In other words, it’s picking up a vibe rather than interrogating the response or trying to check it for validity.  

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17 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Oh definitely. I'm just worried about tonight. Tonight could be the final piece to secure the victory, short of some massive October disaster. She has the chance to make Trump look like Biden did in the last debate. Let him do it because all know he won't be able to control himself or if he does he will look very low energy and just vomiting his usual grievances and empty platforms.  

I am not worried about tonight....

I actually feel the same towards Harris destroying him in the debate as I felt Saturday morning.  I knew we'd fucking kill Michigan.  

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14 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Dang if my job was WFH, I would probably buy something like this and live there from May-September. I would rather live in a prettier part of the state though

1003 Quincy St, Parkersburg, WV 26101 | MLS #5067755 | Zillow

(and redecorate everything of course)

And the folks in those areas also don't understand or appreciate that it's because of federal government investements that eventually (granted it's not as fast as it should or can be) that they're finally gonna get gigabit broadband in their part of the country. 

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34 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

You have a point, cheap land is what got it populated in the first place. That being said, I'm 45 and have done ok so far in life. And California is completely outside of my price range for anywhere I'd wave to live there. Just give me some place with a great view and a few acres that doesn't cost 2 million plus. Becuase that's the shit I see now anywhere else I'd want to live. And that's basically Texas Hill Country. 

I've long had my eyes on sleepier mountain towns in CA for retirement. Nevada City, for example. Wild fires could be a concern though:

Nevada City, California - Wikipedia

10 Fun & Outdoorsy Things to do in Nevada City, California

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/12590-Pasquale-Rd-Nevada-City-CA-95959/61305868_zpid/

sorry for the derail

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48 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


Aside from the Comey letter, I’d argue his “you’d be in jail” comment to Hillary during one of the debates was the single biggest moment in the 2016 election cycle.
It tickled the same emotions as a walk off home run for any person who had spent the last few decades being told to hate Hillary. Luckily I don’t think he’s sharp enough to replicate that this go-round.

That biggest moment you cite derives directly from this:

image.png.616c287d0a9564498a58e003dc06e29f.png

A lot of very sensible people on this board who were GOPs still can't get over their intense dislike of Hillary Clinton. That's the power of the hate engine. She was its focus for decades as stated above.

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Harris should destroy Trump tonight, but of course Fox News will declare victory no matter what. 

In my opinion the two demographics she has to capture and hold onto are midrange aged men and women who are politically in the middle and bounce back and forth between parties. For those folks, when she goes on the attack it should be very effective. But with the world the way it is, even today, she has to guard against being so aggressive that somehow the script gets flipped and she comes across as a shrieking liberal and he gets a small amount of sympathy. I’m confident she will strike the right balance, because so far her campaign has.  

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27 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Dang if my job was WFH, I would probably buy something like this and live there from May-September. I would rather live in a prettier part of the state though

1003 Quincy St, Parkersburg, WV 26101 | MLS #5067755 | Zillow

(and redecorate everything of course)

 

20 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/41724-SE-66th-St_Snoqualmie_WA_98065_M21606-30603?from=srp-list-card
 

As an example.  Since much of the homesite work has been done, you could drop a very nice 400k house there and be set for a million or less. 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/Route-1-Parsons-WV-26287/23108006_zpid/

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I don't even think her 2020 debate was all that and a bag of chips - it was good, but nothing epic - and she was seen as the winner by over 20 points (60-38). 

And I think she's gotten better since 2020 as a politician.  And Trump's brain has gotten worse.

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5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I don't even think her 2020 debate was all that and a bag of chips - it was good, but nothing epic - and she was seen as the winner by over 20 points (60-38). 

And I think she's gotten better since 2020 as a politician.  And Trump's brain has gotten worse.

My wife reminded me that Pence had a fucking fly on his face for like a 1/4 of the debate. 

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19 minutes ago, Foosters said:

I've long had my eyes on sleepier mountain towns in CA for retirement. Nevada City, for example. Wild fires could be a concern though:

Nevada City, California - Wikipedia

10 Fun & Outdoorsy Things to do in Nevada City, California

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/12590-Pasquale-Rd-Nevada-City-CA-95959/61305868_zpid/

sorry for the derail

 

11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

There are some gorgeous mountain towns, but one requirement I have is water access, either big lake or ocean. Which always circles me back to the Alps. There's like Coeur d'Alene, but it can't compete on the food and wine front.

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You know what WV actually NEEDS?  An influx of young, hardworking....brown people.  Ain't that a bitch?

Are you kidding? Just look at how they are ruining Dallas.

Key findings:
Immigrants in Dallas contributed billions in taxes and consumer spending. In 2022, immigrant households earned $10.7 billion in income, with $1.6 billion going to federal taxes and $900.6 million going to state and local taxes, leaving them with $8.2 billion in spending power that can be reinvested in local communities.

Immigrants are helping the city meet its labor force demands. In 2022, immigrants made up 23.2 percent of the city’s population, yet accounted for 28.9 percent of the working age population and 28.4 percent of its employed labor force.

Immigrants are working in fast-growing industries. Immigrants comprised 26.4 percent of STEM workers, 63.2 percent of construction workers, and 39.6 percent of manufacturing workers in 2022, contributing a wide array of skills in fast-growing industries.

Immigrants play a significant role in the city’s entrepreneurs. Immigrants represented 38.9 percent of business owners in the city in 2022 despite making up 23.2 percent of the population.

Immigrants support the federal safety net. In 2022, they contributed $1.1B to Social Security and $274.5M to Medicare.

Language diversity is flourishing in Dallas. In 2022, 41.8 percent of all Dallas residents spoke a language other than English at home. As the demand for multilingual and culturally competent workers grows in the city, immigrants can help fill those jobs.

https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/economic-impact-report-new-americans-dallas
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2 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

 

There are some gorgeous mountain towns, but one requirement I have is water access, either big lake or ocean. Which always circles me back to the Alps. There's like Coeur d'Alene, but it can't compete on the food and wine front.

The Alps......This fuckin guy!

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