2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[SimonBolivar 10895]

12 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

You having a watch party? Can I come

[CooterBrown 17867]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I've read that the Florida abortion protection ballot initiative has polled as high as 55% plan to vote for it, 26% against and 20% unsure.  I believe it requires 60% approval to pass.

Now it's possible that someone will vote for the abortion protection and also vote for Trump, but I doubt that's high number. And perhaps a few will only vote on the abortion initiative and leave the rest blank. I have to believe that the venn diagrams for both sides of the initiative and the presidential candidate have a high correlation.

You would think the circles mostly overlap between voters that want to protect abortion in Florida and also want to protect it at a national level going forward with their presidential vote.  But, then again it's Florida and that state is full of regards.

[Gatorubet 30048]

11 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

This.  It's Dobbs.

There are multiple examples of people just straight up lying to pollsters since Dobbs.  The KS vote was 50/50 polling and won like 70/30.  There are other examples but the bias leans heavily R in polling.

Absolutely this.  That is why getting abortion referendum on the ballot in November was so important to everyone on the Democratic side.

JD’s saying unmarried childless women are psychotic losers without benefit to society was just a gift from heaven and a cherry on top. 

I am annoyed that I’m not seeing Democratic ads where Trump says “everybody wanted this” about forcing doctors to let women die rather than treat them. 

[chainsaw 9831]

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

comparing to clinton, i can see non-college whites being worse for harris.  other than that, the other groups feel like harris would do no worse than break even from clinton's position.  yoots, women, black, certainly better.  maybe on college.  no change on non-black minority imo.  all this in an environment when (1) 'woman' isn't as big of an issue because of clinton; (2) trump is both fleshed out and lost the novelty position as a non-pol running for president.

That and I don't believe there's as much of an appetite for chaos today as there was in 2016. We'd had smooth sailing for about 7 years, then, after a coalition of lifelong losers (townies, incels) and evangelicals outhustled a complacent DNC who'd picked a weak candidate, we had four years of instability capped with over 1M killed due to the negligent mishandling of a global pandemic. Rational people woke the fuck up and voted Trump out in 2020, and we're just now beginning to tread water and regain our bearings.

Are we better off now than we were four years ago? Absolutely. Even the lifelong losers are better off, but they're too stupid to understand and too racist to even try to understand. The last thing we need is a return to weekly crises and widespread incompetency.

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

4 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

In fairness with the recent developments of Loomer, this may lower to 50% in the near future.

[Js1 85049]

25 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

just came here to post it. The individual polls have her a positive for several weeks now and it just took some time for 538 to knock down the weight of the older polls. great news.

as comparison, Trump is at a -9.6% has been trending worse lately on 538.

EDIT: 538 has also adjusted their overall win probability to 61-39. It was 55-45 a week ago. While not a giant move, it does show that we're going in the right direction, no matter who is truly ahead.

Walz is by far the most popular of the 2 tickets, Harris is behind him, then a 10 point gap to Trump and then Vance behind that 

[MissingInAction 24762]

39 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

My sole mission in life: remind the very intelligent people that post here that they also occasionally say Best Since FDR!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Walz is by far the most popular of the 2 tickets, Harris is behind him, then a 10 point gap to Trump and then Vance behind that 

Agree. This is why the upcoming VP debate is so important. Walz needs to keep his same image and mannerisms why calling out Vance for fake facts and being weird.

Short of Trump being shot again, and I hope there is no more violence, I don't see him having much opportunity to grow his percentages.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

and I hope there is no more violence,

[The Dog 43766]

27 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

It's not about having no reason to believe that poll bias has flipped since 2020, we have a very clear reason to think it has done so complete with multiple election cycles worth of evidence. Polls have had a heavy R bias since Dobbs, the question that should be asked is what evidence is there to think that bias has suddenly flipped in the last year. 

At best for the Presidential race you could theorize that quiet Trump voters counter the Dobbs effect. But that only helps down ballot with straight ticket voters. 

I think calling them "quiet" Trump supporters isn't accurate. They are "unreliable" - meaning that they only vote when Trump is on the ballot and stay home otherwise. These are people who have been missed in likely voter screens. Siena is trying to account for this by including those who just say "I'm voting for Trump f off" and hang up. They used to exclude those but now include them in their polling.

The Dobbs effect is real, but like you I wonder what impact the "Trump only" voters showing up will have. I don't think these people help GOP down-ballot races because these people vote for Trump and that's it. 

[4th&Five 41456]

this is on tonight

 

[Js1 85049]

 

[MissingInAction 24762]

[4th&Five 41456]

 

[Js1 85049]

[babysdaddy 2711]

 

The consolidation is important. 

 

What I still want to see is something like the below, except with additional columns showing how 2016 and 2020 actually turned out relative to the polling.  All the other stuff is just vibes.

 

 

 

[Js1 85049]

Also don't use RCP.  Republicans Cherry Picking. 

[Js1 85049]

538 now has Harris' ahead +4.2 - her highest margin yet and quietly approaching Biden 2020

[babysdaddy 2711]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Also don't use RCP.  Republicans Cherry Picking. 

no doubt but, assuming apples to apples, their averages above are relevant information for comparative purposes.

[CTC2 2724]

 

[kevwun 15589]

This thing is over except for the crying.

[chainsaw 9831]

42 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I don't like the enthusiasm trend. Probably the real reason behind the blood libel

[immamac 42487]

I seriously haven't interacted with a true trump voter that wasn't completely and obviously low IQ or mentally retarded since the debate. Everyone I know who was "wallet republican" have been open about how unacceptable the eating dogs and cats thing was and how fucking crazy he is and they can't vote for him.

[Brisketexan 104425]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

Everyone I know who was "wallet republican" have been open about how unacceptable the eating dogs and cats thing was and how fucking crazy he is and they can't vote for him.

Except....when the time comes on Nov 5th....every single one of those people will still pull the lever for Trump.  Because they are all fucking liars who are not only okay with lying, they love it deeply, and they'll lie to you and even to themselves.

[immamac 42487]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Except....when the time comes on Nov 5th....every single one of those people will still pull the lever for Trump.  Because they are all fucking liars who are not only okay with lying, they love it deeply, and they'll lie to you and even to themselves.

nah, I think they will just sit at home. 

[SimonBolivar 10895]

1 minute ago, kevwun said:

This thing is over except for the crying.

With how insane this campaign has been, I don't see how anyone could possibly think this on September 17th.

[kevwun 15589]

When was the last time something good happened for the Trump Campaign?  Biden's debate performance?  Getting shot at in July?  He had nothing to do with either of those things.  I have no doubt some more crazy shit will happen, but it's only going to hurt Trump.

Edited September 17 by kevwun

[SydneyCarton 47809]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

just came here to post it. The individual polls have her a positive for several weeks now and it just took some time for 538 to knock down the weight of the older polls. great news.

as comparison, Trump is at a -9.6% has been trending worse lately on 538.

EDIT: 538 has also adjusted their overall win probability to 61-39. It was 55-45 a week ago. While not a giant move, it does show that we're going in the right direction, no matter who is truly ahead.

NYT headline:

"Why this news is Catastrophic for Harris."
Written by Nate Silver. 

[Hank Kingsley 20631]

I know this video was posted before, but the Kamala campaign HAS to get Walz in front of the young male demographic more often. Like others have mentioned, Rogan or Theo Von podcast would be fine. I would love an appearance on ESPN or at a football game, but that's probably unlikely as sports media probably wants to avoid getting into the political conversation. 

Young men are incredibly impressionable, and they are only being fed Trump shit all the time. These kids are are not gonna tune in for the VP debate. Give him an hour deep dive conversation with someone. Walz can handle it, there is zero downside.

 

[MissingInAction 24762]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

NYT headline:

"Why this news is Catastrophic for Harris."
Written by Nate Silver. 

Well fuck that guy.

[South Austin 52032]

1 minute ago, kevwun said:

When was the last time something good happened for the Trump Campaign?  Biden's debate performance?  

The first assassination attempt was probably the last good thing.  It was after Biden's awful debate performance, and it seemed like the general consensus was that the event would only charge up the MAGA base and polling in Trump's favor.  In fact, my thought after reading about the assassination attempt was, "well shit, it's over now."

[Js1 85049]

Just now, South Austin said:

In fact, my thought after reading about the assassination attempt was, "well shit, it's over now."

LOL 75% of this board was posting "well Trump just won" like it was gospel.

[South Austin 52032]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

LOL 75% of this board was posting "well Trump just won" like it was gospel.

I mean, if Biden hadn't dropped out after the assassination attempt, that forecast would have been perfectly reasonable.

[Js1 85049]

Kamala Harris is now favored 61-39 by 538 and she is favored in all 7 swing states + NE-02

AZ: 52%
NV: 58%
WI: 65%
MI: 62%
PA: 56%
NC: 51%
GA: 53%
NE-02: 79%

Trump still holds advantages in FL (66%), TX (73%) and ME-02 (77%)

[kevwun 15589]

And they've done nothing but commit fuck up after fuck up since Kamala became the nominee.  And no one is going to stop the mistakes because everyone around Trump is either a bootlicker, a grifter, a nut or some combination of the 3.  The ship isn't going to magically stop sinking.

Edited September 17 by kevwun

[Huckleberry 32682]

The two assassination attempt stories are the first major time I can think of where Trump has fallen victim to his own flood the zone strategy. There is so much crazy Trump shit that people don't care about anything he says or does 2 days later. That has always worked to his advantage when it comes to the verifiably crazy, outrageous, and patently false things he says. But this time an absolutely huge event happened that he needs people to remember and 2 days later nobody cares. 

[Dahobbs 17417]

10 minutes ago, kevwun said:

When was the last time something good happened for the Trump Campaign?  Biden's debate performance?  Getting shot at in July?  He had nothing to do with either of those things.  I have no doubt some more crazy shit will happen, but it's only going to hurt Trump.

I'd say the most recent assassination attempt is about as good as it gets for him. 

[Underdog 28436]

1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:

 

Loomer is doing her own hawk tua on Trump no need for him to do podcast. 

[texasdago 7549]

17 minutes ago, immamac said:

I seriously haven't interacted with a true trump voter that wasn't completely and obviously low IQ or mentally retarded since the debate. Everyone I know who was "wallet republican" have been open about how unacceptable the eating dogs and cats thing was and how fucking crazy he is and they can't vote for him.

Or old... really old and susceptible to monumental BS because they can be easily scared. 

[linux 1652]

Just now, Js1 said:

LOL 75% of this board was posting "well Trump just won" like it was gospel.

Don't mean to gloat but looking back on the 538 favorability average of those days Trump went from -12 unfavorable to -8, like he had the best week a candidate could ever have in his life, survived a bullet, convention, opponent dropping out. and the best he could eek out as 4 points. Of course it evaporated quickly to -10.

This thing is not over not by a longshot, anybody that thinks this is a person less likely to vote and give the advantage back to Trump, that is why I am not militant against CNN keeping Harris and democrats on their toes.

[Zonahorn 8079]

Big endorsement. 

[Js1 85049]

Harris is (ironically) a better pollster for Trump and yet

 

[Pato del Muerto 52312]

29 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I don't like the enthusiasm trend. Probably the real reason behind the blood libel

Two points aren’t a trend. Look at 3 points and it’s fine. If the next point is reflective of your concern, then it’s valid. 

[Gil Bang 25857]

too slow

Edited September 17 by Gil Bang

[Chuckie Finster 22582]

7 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I know this video was posted before, but the Kamala campaign HAS to get Walz in front of the young male demographic more often. Like others have mentioned, Rogan or Theo Von podcast would be fine. I would love an appearance on ESPN or at a football game, but that's probably unlikely as sports media probably wants to avoid getting into the political conversation. 

Young men are incredibly impressionable, and they are only being fed Trump shit all the time. These kids are are not gonna tune in for the VP debate. Give him an hour deep dive conversation with someone. Walz can handle it, there is zero downside.

 

I'm more and more convinced this is a must for the campaign.  Rogan/Theo/etc. are not combative interviewers, it will not be a trap.  Like many have said previously, the goal isn't necessarily to win their vote (although I do think there's a possibility of that happening in non-negligible numbers) it's to convince them that Kamala winning isn't some country-ending scenario. 

When you continue to allow your enemy to define you to a specific demographic with no pushback, then you cannot be surprised when they believe it.

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13536]

25 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I'd say the most recent assassination attempt is about as good as it gets for him. 

#livingmybestlife

['stache 21740]

5 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I'm more and more convinced this is a must for the campaign.  Rogan/Theo/etc. are not combative interviewers, it will not be a trap.  Like many have said previously, the goal isn't necessarily to win their vote (although I do think there's a possibility of that happening in non-negligible numbers) it's to convince them that Kamala winning isn't some country-ending scenario. 

When you continue to allow your enemy to define you to a specific demographic with no pushback, then you cannot be surprised when they believe it.

I’ve seen some Vonn clips and only really read about Rogan. I can see Vonn working out but Rogan strikes me as an incessant contrarian whose idiocy is hard to rebut since facts are irrelevant. I can see it devolving into an anti-vax shitfest that just confirms most of his listeners’ bias against anything fact based or intellectual and just default to trumpism. Could be wrong but doesn’t seem worth the risk.

[Dahobbs 17417]

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

I’ve seen some Vonn clips and only really read about Rogan. I can see Vonn working out but Rogan strikes me as an incessant contrarian whose idiocy is hard to rebut since facts are irrelevant. I can see it devolving into an anti-vax shitfest that just confirms most of his listeners’ bias against anything fact based or intellectual and just default to trumpism. Could be wrong but doesn’t seem worth the risk.

I don't think Rogan has ever challenged one of his interviewees, and I certainly don't think he would start with Walz. Rogan pretty much always buys into whatever his interviewee is saying (at least from what little I've seen).