2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[chainsaw 9831]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think Rogan has ever challenged one of his interviewees, and I certainly don't think he would start with Walz. Rogan pretty much always buys into whatever his interviewee is saying (at least from what little I've seen). 

90% of his editorial voice is the people he books and the frequency with which he books (and promotes) them

[Gatorubet 30047]

28 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The two assassination attempt stories are the first major time I can think of where Trump has fallen victim to his own flood the zone strategy. There is so much crazy Trump shit that people don't care about anything he says or does 2 days later. That has always worked to his advantage when it comes to the verifiably crazy, outrageous, and patently false things he says. But this time an absolutely huge event happened that he needs people to remember and 2 days later nobody cares. 

And there is undoubtedly a significant part of the voting populous that just wants the constant drama and bullshit and hateful language to STOP!   People just want to live in the world without seeing more Trump bullshit every. single. day.  Back in 2016 when people were enjoying a Jesse Ventura type middle-finger-at-the-man candidate versus the hated Hillary, his schtick was compelling to some.  

Now it is just old and tired and annoying.  if there is not a significant amount of people who think this, then it was a good run.

[RabidM 2664]

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

 

The consolidation is important. 

 

What I still want to see is something like the below, except with additional columns showing how 2016 and 2020 actually turned out relative to the polling.  All the other stuff is just vibes.

 

 

 

How are young voters only 56 to 40 for Harris? Nobody gets fucked by gop politics like young people... harris should be smashing that demographic 

[SimonBolivar 10895]

2 minutes ago, RabidM said:

How are young voters only 56 to 40 for Harris? Nobody gets fucked by gop politics like young people... harris should be smashing that demographic 

Young white males.

[Surly Bevo 24692]

2 minutes ago, RabidM said:

How are young voters only 56 to 40 for Harris? Nobody gets fucked by gop politics like young people... harris should be smashing that demographic 

As much as pop culture would lead you to believe otherwise….the vast vast majority of young people just follow their parents lead. 

Edited September 17 by Surly Bevo

[Snake Diggity 4614]

Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball.  Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game.  But the game is far from over.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

I think there's some backsliding back toward Trump with young folks because some young folks internalized what we see as crazy as normal.  If you're 20 years old today, Trump was running for president before you first kissed a girl.  Crazy seems normal because its the bulk of your life.

[Serak The Preparer 3423]

46 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I mean, if Biden hadn't dropped out after the assassination attempt, that forecast would have been perfectly reasonable.

Hell, even if I knew at the time that Biden was going to drop out, I still would have thought Trump runs away with it. There was so much risk with infighting, lack of party unity, and just general Democratic incompetence that it truly feels like a miracle that Biden's withdrawal didn't lead to even more support for Trump. 

[TexArcher 37448]

1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball.  Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game.  But the game is far from over.

This website is the only place I hear talk like this.  Everyone on tv seems to think it's pretty much tied, and they're concerned that enthusiasm for Harris is waning.

Case-in-point: if you give every state the way it's currently leaning, it all comes down to PA, and the most recent poll has PA dead even, whereas 1 month ago it had PA as +4 to Harris.  Source: the hairy NY/NJ election guy on CNN.

[Js1 85049]

Just now, TexArcher said:

and the most recent poll has PA dead even

Actually the most recent one was last night and it was Harris +3. CNN probably pumping their own polls 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

Just now, TexArcher said:

This website is the only place I hear talk like this.  Everyone on tv seems to think it's pretty much tied, and they're concerned that enthusiasm for Harris is waning.

Case-in-point: if you give every state the way it's currently leaning, it all comes down to PA, and the most recent poll has PA dead even, whereas 1 month ago it had PA as +4 to Harris.  Source: the hairy NY/NJ election guy on CNN.

In the analogy, the scoreboard is blurry as fuck.  Some people think the Dems are up 10, some think they’re up 3, others think it’s tied.

[SydneyCarton 47809]

12 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

And there is undoubtedly a significant part of the voting populous that just wants the constant drama and bullshit and hateful language to STOP!   People just want to live in the world without seeing more Trump bullshit every. single. day.  Back in 2016 when people were enjoying a Jesse Ventura type middle-finger-at-the-man candidate versus the hated Hillary, his schtick was compelling to some.  

Now it is just old and tired and annoying.  if there is not a significant amount of people who think this, then it was a good run.

Clearly you haven't been paying attention. 

11 minutes ago, RabidM said:

How are young voters only 56 to 40 for Harris? Nobody gets fucked by gop politics like young people... harris should be smashing that demographic 

As other posters have said, look at the Tim Walz video talking to the young dudes. More than just young white males, young people in general DGAF. Minority groups give a fuck because they can feel an existential threat to their existence when they're young. But young white men, and to a degree women, who've never felt threatened or real diveristy in their lives don't feel an urgency to give a fuck about politics. Unless of course they've got some kind of grievance...like not being able to say the N bomb, or some DEI bullshit that help them back from their rightful place. Then they'll vote.

Sincerely,

45 year old white guy who remembers being 20-25.

[David Dennison 18561]

9 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

This website is the only place I hear talk like this.  Everyone on tv seems to think it's pretty much tied, and they're concerned that enthusiasm for Harris is waning.

Case-in-point: if you give every state the way it's currently leaning, it all comes down to PA, and the most recent poll has PA dead even, whereas 1 month ago it had PA as +4 to Harris.  Source: the hairy NY/NJ election guy on CNN.

Horse race sells. They need it to be close.

[TexArcher 37448]

7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

45 year old white guy who remembers being 20-25.

New site motto?

[SydneyCarton 47809]

1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

New site motto?

Only if "Generic Old White Guy Shit" is already taken, but I don't think either are real crowd pleasers. 

[David Dennison 18561]

So, the popular vote isn't going to be close.

How much longer are Americans going to put up with that?

[Red Five 40592]

23 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

This website is the only place I hear talk like this.  Everyone on tv seems to think it's pretty much tied, and they're concerned that enthusiasm for Harris is waning.

I don't understand it. She's leading in every swing state. She probably has a better chance of winning Florida or Iowa than Trump has of winning Wisconsin. 

Dotard has basically one path to victory and that's winning PA, GA, and NC. I don't think he's winning any of those. 

[Js1 85049]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

I don't understand it. She's leading in every swing state. She probably has a better chance of winning Florida or Iowa than Trump has of winning Wisconsin. 

Dotard has basically one path to victory and that's winning PA, GA, and NC. I don't think he's winning any of those. 

Because we are not paid to make this race seem close. If the race is a blowout, no one is tuning into CNN to listen to their panel of 17 jackasses pontificate 5x a day.

And if yall are getting paid and I’m not, imma be real mad 

26 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Everyone on tv

Okay Donald. You saw it on TV, so it’s true 

Edited September 17 by Js1

[SydneyCarton 47809]

18 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

So, the popular vote isn't going to be close.

How much longer are Americans going to put up with that?

Forever.gif.

Show me a 60 seat senate majority and I'll show you change. Or unless some of these other states do the right thing in the next 4 years. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

there's that state compact that people throw around that doesn't require a constitutional amendment.

[heso 2748]

13 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Just to give an update on ads in Georgia, I'd say it's 3 or 4 to one in terms of volume in favor of Harris.  Trump ads mostly make claims like we are paying 3 times as much for gas (which is humorous, as gas today was $2.82 a gallon, which when one considers inflation, is actually significantly lower than when he was in office (easily over $3 per gallon, pre-inflation)).  His ads are blaming housing costs on Harris, along with grocery inflation.  Then we get some weird ones with no talking just showing a black family at a pool with "Trump" written (it's fucking really weird).  The Harris ads a very effective in my mind, mostly about not going back, forcing corporations and billionaires to pay their share, attacking 2025 and tariffs.  

For me the ads I see on TV are probably in the neighborhood of 2-1 Trump-Harris but the live tv I’m watching is almost exclusively football so I’m sure that skews it. On YouTube, the ads I get are probably close to 10-1 Trump-Harris and the physical mail ads I get are 3 to 4 per week from Trump and zero ever from Harris. 

But from where I’m sitting I appear to be the only demographic that Trump is even trying to court. 18-45, middle class, white male, suburban PA. They seem to know that they can’t gain voters anywhere else and every decision they make seems to be geared towards trying to gain voters there. They know that if they don’t dominate that demographic in PA they have absolutely no chance.

The messaging I get is overwhelmingly that immigrants are destroying absolutely everything. There are violent criminals streaming across the border feeding fentanyl to everyone. They are raising health care costs, taking jobs, and committing crimes, it’s all Kamala’s fault and she’s soft on crime. A distant second message is that Kamala and Biden are exclusively responsible for inflation and Kamala will make it worse. 3rd is that she’ll ban fracking. 4th is that Trump has absolutely no connection to project 2025. I get that shit all day, every day. Almost every commercial break watching a game. 

Senate ads are probably 2-1 McCormick to Casey but that seems to be shifting more even recently. 

The gop nominee in my congressional race is a guy I went to high school with and he couldn’t be hiding more from being associated with Trump. 

[MrX 704]

44 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball.  Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game.  But the game is far from over.

Like the Elk says, gotta campaign through the gristle. 

[Chad Fuck 17501]

Like the Elk says, gotta campaign through the gristle. 

Or like coach says, we play until the whistle.

[SaucyJack 3480]

50 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball.  Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game.  But the game is far from over.

Don’t look now, but Arch just came in

 

[TexArcher 37448]

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay Donald. You saw it on TV, so it’s true 

 

 

[Aqua Buddha 14484]

52 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball.  Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game.  But the game is far from over.

The ejection is less than 8 weeks out and early voting starts soon in some states.

It’s early in the 4th quarter at this point.

[BamaATL 16592]

3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

The ejection is less than 8 weeks out and early voting starts soon in some states.

It’s early in the 4th quarter at this point.

If we eject Trump from the planet I'm even more motivated.  

[Hank Kingsley 20631]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think Rogan has ever challenged one of his interviewees, and I certainly don't think he would start with Walz. Rogan pretty much always buys into whatever his interviewee is saying (at least from what little I've seen). 

This is exactly right. 

[Biff Tannen 45470]

2 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

this is on tonight

 

Man, FUCK THAT.  I don't need to watch morons be morons and have the leopards eat their faces all over again.  The bottom line is that all of these people, ALL OF THEM, are the dumbest among us.  Whether it's the rubes who think the election was stolen or the grifters going after money and power that knew it wasn't stolen, they are all the dumbest among us.  Fuck em all.

[Js1 85049]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

If we eject Trump from the planet I'm even more motivated.  

With Elon though 

[GopherRock 1765]

33 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball.  Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game.  But the game is far from over.

Actually, the better analogy is this:

-Democrats played a hideous first half. Sluggish, no energy, penalties, drops, dumb mistakes. Somehow, they get to the locker room at halftime only down 10 and receiving the second half kickoff.

-Coaches make some changes in the locker room. New QB and a different coach calling the defense. First play of 2H is play action that the entire GOP back 7 bites hard on. Deep man waltzes untouched into the end zone for a 75-yard TD. Game on. 

-Since that play, the GOP is making more and more mistakes while the Dem OL is finally opening gaps on the ground.  

[Dnaguy 11736]

1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

Big endorsement. 

Huge…. Endorsement

['stache 21739]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think Rogan has ever challenged one of his interviewees, and I certainly don't think he would start with Walz. Rogan pretty much always buys into whatever his interviewee is saying (at least from what little I've seen). 

I was thinking Harris who he would absolutely treat like shit right off the bat. I could see Walz charming the shit out of him though and have him nodding along to things like keeping kids fed and having the government mind their own fucking business on personal issues.

Edited September 17 by 'stache

[Gatorubet 30047]

51 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Clearly you haven't been paying attention. 

just to clear this up, are you saying that Trump fatigue will not play a role in the upcoming election? - Or was my use of the word ‘significant’ subject to such a broad definition that I was unclear?

I mean, I recently posted unsettling information about the increased Republican registrations in Pennsylvania in North Carolina.   Nobody is saying that this is in the bag.   

[Haphap 741]

11 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

If we eject Trump from the planet I'm even more motivated.  

 

['stache 21739]

26 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

there's that state compact that people throw around that doesn't require a constitutional amendment.

Seems that would be even harder since an amendment requires 3/4 of the states while the compact would need every state to agree. No way in hell any red state agrees because they know popular vote goes against them most elections.

[Born to Run 6478]

1 hour ago, RabidM said:

How are young voters only 56 to 40 for Harris? Nobody gets fucked by gop politics like young people... harris should be smashing that demographic 

They were raised by Daily Texan posters? OR went to Aggie, or Blynn or Tech, or ACU?

['stache 21739]

8 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Huge…. Endorsement

Syd Sweeney is next?

[The Dog 43766]

34 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

there's that state compact that people throw around that doesn't require a constitutional amendment.

for those who want to go down that rabbit hole: National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

NYT headline:

"Why this news is Catastrophic for Harris."
Written by Nate Silver. 

You’re getting your Nates confused. Nate Cohn works for the NYT not Silver.

[Js1 85049]

1 minute ago, Zonahorn said:

 

NOW WHO NEEDS MAPS, JD VANCE???

[Js1 85049]

Oh he also said we have 7 days to save this country (we do?) and that RFK Jr. was assassinated by the government

[Pancho 44322]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Actually the most recent one was last night and it was Harris +3. CNN probably pumping their own polls 

Thought one came out this morning that was turnip +2?

[HenryJames 65865]

5 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

Future school shooter.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

The polling companies, media companies and even Harris campaign are cool with a story that the race is a dead heat. A close race helps them all financially.

you won’t hear a real opinion from the Harris campaign until the results start to come in.  And perhaps until the last person votes in NV and AZ.

[Js1 85049]

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Thought one came out this morning that was turnip +2?

I've already touched on that one.  Insider Advantage was the worst pollster in 2022 and was 5-6 points to the right in all of their results.  They are one of the most biased pollsters for Republicans, behind Trafalgar and Rasmussen.   They're were not much better in 2020 either - consistently to the right in all of the states they polled. 

They conveniently waited until that Harris +3 dropped and then they dropped theirs. They don't release crosstabs or MOE either. 

IA is just another right-wing spam poll - we are finally going to get high-quality PA polls (Suffolk, another in-state polling company this week) but the zone is still being flooded with crapola. 

Edited September 17 by Js1

[Dahobbs 17417]

49 minutes ago, heso said:

For me the ads I see on TV are probably in the neighborhood of 2-1 Trump-Harris but the live tv I’m watching is almost exclusively football so I’m sure that skews it. On YouTube, the ads I get are probably close to 10-1 Trump-Harris and the physical mail ads I get are 3 to 4 per week from Trump and zero ever from Harris. 

But from where I’m sitting I appear to be the only demographic that Trump is even trying to court. 18-45, middle class, white male, suburban PA. They seem to know that they can’t gain voters anywhere else and every decision they make seems to be geared towards trying to gain voters there. They know that if they don’t dominate that demographic in PA they have absolutely no chance.

The messaging I get is overwhelmingly that immigrants are destroying absolutely everything. There are violent criminals streaming across the border feeding fentanyl to everyone. They are raising health care costs, taking jobs, and committing crimes, it’s all Kamala’s fault and she’s soft on crime. A distant second message is that Kamala and Biden are exclusively responsible for inflation and Kamala will make it worse. 3rd is that she’ll ban fracking. 4th is that Trump has absolutely no connection to project 2025. I get that shit all day, every day. Almost every commercial break watching a game. 

Senate ads are probably 2-1 McCormick to Casey but that seems to be shifting more even recently. 

The gop nominee in my congressional race is a guy I went to high school with and he couldn’t be hiding more from being associated with Trump. 

That ratio is fairly concerning. Even in Houston, Texas, the ads I see both on TV (during football) and online favor Harris pretty significantly. I thought her campaign had big ad spends in PA, but I guess maybe they aren't targeting football? 

[David Dennison 18561]

54 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Forever.gif.

Show me a 60 seat senate majority and I'll show you change. Or unless some of these other states do the right thing in the next 4 years. 

If Trump wins that will make the third time in the last four Republican victories that the will of the majority has been thwarted.

That doesn't seem tenable.

[Pato del Muerto 52312]

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

and that RFK Jr. was assassinated by the government

Presidential immunity!!!