2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Chuckie Finster 22582]

LOL, Nate Silver/538 is all over the fucking place.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

Nate Silver is no longer with 538. In fact, I am convinced their rosy forecast for Kamala is one of the largest driving factors behind him doing… whatever the fuck he’s doing now.

[Nuge 1959]

That’s why people live in Vancouver (WA) and get their groceries across the river in Portland. 

I live in Vancouver. Can confirm. Also better schools, lower crime, and cleaner city.

[Biff Tannen 45470]

19 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’m fine with all of it and I want Democratic voters to feel like their individual vote is the most crucial vote in history

Yes

12 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Counterpoint 1

People tend to quit when they are getting beaten soundly. 
 

Counterpoint 2 

This type of reporting is what feeds January 6 type batshittery

Also yes

[wildcat09 29183]

3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Nate Silver is no longer with 538. In fact, I am convinced their rosy forecast for Kamala is one of the largest driving factors behind him doing… whatever the fuck he’s doing now.

Silver is clearly using the impact his model has on betting markets for his own betting purposes. 

[Js1 85049]

Just now, wildcat09 said:

Silver is clearly using the impact his model has on betting markets for his own betting purposes. 

And to make his bosses happy. Thiel invested a lot of money into Polymatket

Edited September 17 by Js1

[Chopper 17111]

Going to share (complimentary free link below) an article by Josh Marshall. It's a small morale boost for those who, me included, are stressed and anxious about the election. I have a csb about the 3 old school pollsters he mentions at the top but no time to tell it right now. 

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/maybe-it-wont-be-that-close/sharetoken/af3d20bf-2efd-4a68-8d36-cd82326f8f29

[Pancho 44322]

Apparently Harris is a little sick but still going. I wish she’d take a day or 2 off.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

4 hours ago, David Dennison said:

If Trump wins that will make the third time in the last four Republican victories that the will of the majority has been thwarted.

That doesn't seem tenable.

If you’re referencing the electoral college changing, I could only see change if somehow a couple of large, reddish states suddenly flipped blue. Think Texas and Florida. I know I know but stick with me a second.  At that point, the red states would be such a minority in the House and would never sniff the WH at all. Their only remaining option is using the senate to block everything.

perhaps the Dems could then look to drastically increase the House size, which in turn increases the electoral college size. This would water down the influence of the smaller states in the electoral college.  But then again if Dems added a Texas and/or Florida, why would they want to waste time changing the electoral college?

[Bozo_Casanova 26218]

Again - I think we’ll see a 3% move in one or the other direction at the end of the move that may or may not be visible until Election Day and will represent the consolidated intent of truly undecided and/or unmotivated voters. I think they will move as a herd, and that we’ll know who wins the election by midnight on the East coast, because they will win >300 EVs

[Js1 85049]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Apparently Harris is a little sick but still going. I wish she’d take a day or 2 off.

She sounded like it 

[Brisketexan 104425]

18 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Apparently Harris is a little sick but still going. I wish she’d take a day or 2 off.

Fuck that.  No days off.

The fate of the Republic is in play.  You stop for nothing.

Nothing.

[Rimbo 25745]

https://theonion.com/fox-news-now-just-airing-continuous-blood-red-screen-wi-1830027275/

Fox News Now Just Airing Continuous Blood-Red Screen With Disembodied Voice Chanting ‘They’re Coming To Kill You’

 

[honolulu horn 6156]

1 hour ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

I highly recommend:  https://glebekitchen.com/kerala-fried-chicken/

Its basically a curry marinated fried chicken.

Same universe, Korean fried chicken is fantastic.

[swraith 336]

So no viral comments from the NABJ today?

Edited September 17 by swraith

[TexEx15 17422]

 

[immamac 42487]

10 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Trump: I don't think I've ever said this before. So we do these rallies. They're massive rallies. Everybody loves, everybody stays till the end. By the way, you know, when she said that, well, your rallies people leave. Honestly, nobody does. And if I saw them leaving, I'd say, and ladies and gentlemen make America great again and I'd get the hell out, ok? Because I don't want people leaving. But I do have to say so I give these long sometimes very complex sentences and paragraphs but they all come together. I do it a lot. I do it with raising cane. That story. I do it with the story on the catapults on the aircraft carriers. I do it with a lot of different stories. When I mentioned Doctor Hannibal Lecter. I'm using that as an example of people that are coming in from Silence of the Lambs. I use it. They say it's terrible. So they say so I'll give this long complex area for instance that I talked about a lot of different territory… You know, for a town hall, there's a lot of people but the fake news likes to say, the fake news likes to say, oh, he was rambling. No, no, that's not rambling. That's genius. When you can connect the dots. Now, now, Sarah, if you couldn't connect the dots, you got a problem. But every dot was connected and many stories were told in that little paragraph

[Hefeweizen 5307]

48 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

Same universe, Korean fried chicken is fantastic.

Truth.  There’s a place down the street called Ttobongee that is unreal good.  The plain fried is just ok, but with spicy sauce is unbelievable.

[Js1 85049]

34 minutes ago, swraith said:

So no viral comments from the NABJ today?

Her comments about Springfield were powerful. 

[Pancho 44322]

 

[Red Five 40592]

9 minutes ago, immamac said:

When I mentioned Doctor Hannibal Lecter. I'm using that as an example of people that are coming in from Silence of the Lambs. I use it. They say it's terrible.

Dotard has attempted numerous times to explain why he keeps talking about him. None of the explanations make any sense. "I'm using that as an example of people that are coming in from Silence of the Lambs". I mean, what?

[chainsaw 9831]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Is EndWokeness aware of any external factors in 2020 that might have played a role in demand for mail-in ballots?

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20341]

 

 

 

[chainsaw 9831]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/jd-vance-wrote-scathing-article-against-gopthen-had-his-ohio-state-professor-delete-it

Quote

Vance Wrote Scathing Article Against GOP—Then Had Ex-Professor Delete It

The veep hopeful’s aides have played down the article, saying the Ohio Senator’s views have changed over the years “like millions of Americans.”

 

[Js1 85049]

1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

Is EndWokeness aware of any external factors in 2020 that might have played a role in demand for mail-in ballots?

Of course not. They look at everything in a vacuum 

[Fudge Nuggets 19116]

3 hours ago, Frank The Tank said:

Yeah, no shit. I understood the reference. Did you know that after that game, Tua went on to play in the NFL and has had multiple concussions? He is currently unable to play the game and possibly considering retirement due to potential long term issues like brain damage. That’s why I said it wasn’t a good analogy THIS WEEK. 

Well your analogy or whatever can be revisited (checks notes) six years after this election.

[hobbes2702 12771]

 

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If you’re referencing the electoral college changing, I could only see change if somehow a couple of large, reddish states suddenly flipped blue. Think Texas and Florida. I know I know but stick with me a second.  At that point, the red states would be such a minority in the House and would never sniff the WH at all. Their only remaining option is using the senate to block everything.

perhaps the Dems could then look to drastically increase the House size, which in turn increases the electoral college size. This would water down the influence of the smaller states in the electoral college.  But then again if Dems added a Texas and/or Florida, why would they want to waste time changing the electoral college?

Electoral college needs to die.

The house needs to be massively expanded with some sort of cap on population size per district. House members should work m-f at their local district office other than committee heads and gang of eight. Everyone else should be working “remotely”. The worst thing that has happened to the house is districts are so big and reps are never home so they don’t know or care what their constituents think or want. 

[Okie State 3767]

46 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Is EndWokeness aware of any external factors in 2020 that might have played a role in demand for mail-in ballots?

These same people believe gas prices dropped off a cliff in 2020 because of Trump's genius pro business policies and not because the entire planet came to an abrupt and unprecedented halt overnight. So, yeah.

[Shut up Lou Holtz 2003]

54 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Of course not. They look at everything in a vacuum 

I can literally picture Vance (or any maga moron) staring into an actual vacuum cleaner proving your statement correct 

[Js1 85049]

6 minutes ago, Shut up Lou Holtz said:

I can literally picture Vance (or any maga moron) staring into an actual vacuum cleaner proving your statement correct 

[Biff Tannen 45470]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

Dotard has attempted numerous times to explain why he keeps talking about him. None of the explanations make any sense. "I'm using that as an example of people that are coming in from Silence of the Lambs". I mean, what?

I really think it’s his leap in logic from people seeking asylum at the border. He literally thinks that means they come from “insane asylums”. I really think this. That is how dumb he is. 

[Biff Tannen 45470]

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Is EndWokeness aware of any external factors in 2020 that might have played a role in demand for mail-in ballots?

God dammit I have to stop reading the comments. It’s so bad. 

[Okie State 3767]

4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

God dammit I have to stop reading the comments. It’s so bad. 

One of my sane friends always tells me there is nothing to gain but rage from reading Internet comments. I continue to read them for some unknown reason.

[Pancho 44322]

The people behind him lol

 

[Js1 85049]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

The people behind him lol

 

IS HE TALKING ABOUT ME

[Francisco 2.0 32290]

5 minutes ago, Okie State said:

One of my sane friends always tells me there is nothing to gain but rage from reading Internet comments. I continue to read them for some unknown reason.

 

Probably the same reason cutters do their thing.

 

 

[BurntOrange&White 39477]

They should blast this all over 

 

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTF2rHKh5/

[Chopper 17111]

1 hour ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Fuckin' Elon lost some weight, huh?

[The Dog 43766]

2 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

 

 

[TexEx15 17422]

 

[hobbes2702 12771]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

I really think it’s his leap in logic from people seeking asylum at the border. He literally thinks that means they come from “insane asylums”. I really think this. That is how dumb he is. 

That’s exactly what it is. 

[atomheartbevo 89348]

6 hours ago, chainsaw said:

“The campaign is a community of these voters who feel politically homeless, who need a new home, who want to reject Donald Trump, but don't necessarily identify as Democrats,” John Conway, RVAT's director of strategy, said in an interview with Salon.

At least they aren't going to the libertarians I guess?

But maybe start up a 2020s version of the Whigs?

[Kyrie Eleison 9312]

2 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

 

 

 

[aggie08 21370]

2 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

RIP.

[Pancho 44322]

 

[Superhero 8726]

5 hours ago, royiv said:

Dammit, I always get WA and OR confused. OR=no sales tax, WA=no income tax.

That's why I'm moving to Vancouver WA when I retire. Wife will stay in CA. Live in WA, shop in OR, wife out of the house. Win, win, win.

[Bateshorn 9877]

2 hours ago, hobbes2702 said:

 

Electoral college needs to die.

The house needs to be massively expanded with some sort of cap on population size per district. House members should work m-f at their local district office other than committee heads and gang of eight. Everyone else should be working “remotely”. The worst thing that has happened to the house is districts are so big and reps are never home so they don’t know or care what their constituents think or want. 

Putting aside your point about the electoral college, the members are at home a ton. Even in session they are usually only here Tuesday-Thursday. A bunch of them sleep on the couch in their office so they don’t have to rent or live in big group houses. They’ve barely been here since mid July. 

[atomheartbevo 89348]

5 hours ago, Satchel said:

There a quite a few things I don’t know Just learned today was a freak off is.

That's okay, I recently learned what a Sacramento Steamer is, and I was thinking it would be like a Cleveland Steamer, but nope, it really should be called a Sacramento Sledgehammer. I'm still walking funny.

[C-Man 26981]

Can someone explain to me what role, if any, the President makes in insurance rates going up or down? Yes, insurance is expensive but isn't that due to there's a shitload more catastrophes now? Is he going to make hurricanes, tornados, and flooding no longer happen?

He has concepts of a plan.

[hobbes2702 12771]

27 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Putting aside your point about the electoral college, the members are at home a ton. Even in session they are usually only here Tuesday-Thursday. A bunch of them sleep on the couch in their office so they don’t have to rent or live in big group houses. They’ve barely been here since mid July. 

They can work remotely 

[Satchel 6908]

How Roberts Shaped Trump’s Supreme Court Winning Streak

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/15/us/justice-roberts-trump-supreme-court.html

Behind the scenes, the chief justice molded three momentous Jan. 6 and election cases that helped determine the former president’s fate.

Last February, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. sent his eight Supreme Court colleagues a confidential memo that radiated frustration and certainty.

Former President Donald J. Trump, seeking to retake the White House, had made a bold, last-ditch appeal to the justices. He wanted them to block his fast-approaching criminal trial on charges of attempting to overturn the 2020 election, arguing that he was protected by presidential immunity. Whatever move the court made could have lasting consequences for the next election, the scope of presidential power and the court’s own battered reputation.

The chief justice’s Feb. 22 memo, jump-starting the justices’ formal discussion on whether to hear the case, offered a scathing critique of a lower-court decision and a startling preview of how the high court would later rule, according to several people from the court who saw the document.

The chief justice tore into the appellate court opinion greenlighting Mr. Trump’s trial, calling it inadequate and poorly reasoned. On one key point, he complained, the lower court judges “failed to grapple with the most difficult questions altogether.” He wrote not only that the Supreme Court should take the case — which would stall the trial — but also how the justices should decide it.

I think it likely that we will view the separation of powers analysis differently” from the appeals court, he wrote. In other words: grant Mr. Trump greater protection from prosecution.

In a momentous trio of Jan. 6-related cases last term, the court found itself more entangled in presidential politics than at any time since the 2000 election, even as it was contending with its own controversies related to that day. The chief justice responded by deploying his authority to steer rulings that benefited Mr. Trump, according to a New York Times examination that uncovered extensive new information about the court’s decision making.

This account draws on details from the justices’ private memos, documentation of the proceedings and interviews with court insiders, both conservative and liberal, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because deliberations are supposed to be kept secret.

The chief justice wrote the majority opinions in all three cases, including an unsigned one in March concluding that the former president could not be barred from election ballots in Colorado.

Another case involved a highly unusual switch. In April, the chief justice assigned Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. to write a majority opinion saying that prosecutors had gone too far in bringing obstruction charges against some Capitol rioters. But in late May, the chief justice took it over.

During the February discussions of the immunity case, the most consequential of the three, some of the conservative justices wanted to schedule it for the next term. That would have deferred oral arguments until October and almost certainly pushed a decision until after the election. But Chief Justice Roberts provided crucial support for hearing the historic case earlier, siding with the liberals.

Then he froze them out. After he circulated his draft opinion in June, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, the senior liberal, signaled a willingness to agree on some points in hopes of moderating the opinion, according to those familiar with the proceedings. Though the chief justice often favors consensus, he did not take the opening. As the court split 6 to 3, conservatives versus liberals, Justice Sotomayor started work on a five-alarm dissent warning of danger to democracy.

In his writings on the immunity case, the chief justice seemed confident that his arguments would soar above politics, persuade the public, and stand the test of time. His opinion cited “enduring principles,” quoted Alexander Hamilton’s endorsement of a vigorous presidency, and asserted it would be a mistake to dwell too much on Mr. Trump’s actions. “In a case like this one, focusing on ‘transient results’ may have profound consequences for the separation of powers and for the future of our Republic,” he wrote. “Our perspective must be more farsighted.”

But the public response to the decision, announced in July on the final day of the term, was nothing like what his lofty phrases seemed to anticipate.