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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

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Js1

Js1 85308

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All the Q-Pacs:

PENNSYLVANIA: Harris 51%, Trump 45%, Stein 1%, Oliver 1%

MICHIGAN: Harris 50%, Trump 45%, Stein 2%

WISCONSIN: Harris 48%, Trump 47%, Stein 1%

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linux

linux 1660

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2 minutes ago, G650 said:

Why would you do that when you can just drop it off? Other than to have a pointless internet argument obviously.

I honestly have no idea why the bickering over minutiae but it does not matter, dunk on me if you want, drop it off or vote in person now and claim you kicked my ass. I will agree.

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

All the Q-Pacs:

PENNSYLVANIA: Harris 51%, Trump 45%, Stein 1%, Oliver 1%

MICHIGAN: Harris 50%, Trump 45%, Stein 2%

WISCONSIN: Harris 48%, Trump 47%, Stein 1%

Wisconsin as the closest and the reddest of the three. Finally, some good fucking polling

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Js1

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6 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Wisconsin as the closest and the reddest of the three. Finally, some good fucking polling

Not sure why they didn't poll with RFK - he is on the ballot there

The Fabrizio one I posted earlier was Harris +3 with RFK included.  It's kind of polling malpractice not to include him where he is on the ballot? 

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The Dog

The Dog 44020

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11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

All the Q-Pacs:

PENNSYLVANIA: Harris 51%, Trump 45%, Stein 1%, Oliver 1%

MICHIGAN: Harris 50%, Trump 45%, Stein 2%

WISCONSIN: Harris 48%, Trump 47%, Stein 1%

Harris being at or above 50 is what to look out for. If she can consistently poll there then she should be in great shape. Keep in mind the polling errors the last two elections have been exclusively in determining Trump's support rather than his opponents. 

6 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Wisconsin as the closest and the reddest of the three. Finally, some good fucking polling

It's also notoriously difficult to poll. However, the same rules apply - pretty accurate for the Democrat and difficult for determining Trump support.

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linux

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11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

All the Q-Pacs:

PENNSYLVANIA: Harris 51%, Trump 45%, Stein 1%, Oliver 1%

MICHIGAN: Harris 50%, Trump 45%, Stein 2%

WISCONSIN: Harris 48%, Trump 47%, Stein 1%

Crossing those 50% marks are huge, It means in theory (GOTV and voter rolls increasing notwistanding) that convincing Stein voters is less vital. One of the goals to get RFK jr out is to make this a referendum. Trump has his nationwide 45% ceiling (on battleground states it is a 49% ceiling on average) and this is the final blow.

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Zonahorn

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4 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Is Trump even campaigning in Wisconsin?

No, but Wisconsin is the most rightward-leaning of the three by partisan lean. 

 

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Not sure why they didn't poll with RFK - he is on the ballot there

The Fabrizio one I posted earlier was Harris +3 with RFK included.  It's kind of polling malpractice not to include him where he is on the ballot? 

I completely forgot about that, and he's still on the Michigan ballot. I was wondering why Michigan wasn't the bluest of the three.

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TexEx15

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5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not sure why they didn't poll with RFK - he is on the ballot there

The Fabrizio one I posted earlier was Harris +3 with RFK included.  It's kind of polling malpractice not to include him where he is on the ballot? 

 

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locodos

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16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Very bigly good news that SCOWI re-approved drop boxes then.  Best part of voting in CO - ballot shows up at my mailbox, check off all my options and then I'd drop it in a drop box on my way to work. 

Counter point.  I did that exact same thing in 2020.  I checked the status on the local supervisor of elections website.  Guess what?   Our first ballots were never received/counted and I had to get replacements sent out.  The second ballots showed received the day after we dropped them off.  I don't know what went wrong with the first set, but this year I'm just going to vote in person @ during early voting. 

TL/DR Vote, but if you do vote on an absentee ballot check your status

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Js1

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So far we have:

  • Harris +4-6 in reputable polls
  • Harris +3 in two different PA polls that are reputable
  • Harris +3 in two different WI polls (with RFK on the ballot), including one from Trump's own pollster
  • Harris +5 in MI

Wisconsin starts sending out ballots tomorrow
Minnesota and Virginia start in-person EV Friday
Mail-in voting begins in Michigan on Sept 26

We are also less than 30 days out from in-person early voting starting in Arizona and Georgia

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18005

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

The fact at the most basic and simply disproven facts are false in no way dissuades them from thinking they are on the right team

You'd think anyone could simply recognize that whatever side Neo Nazis are on, is the wrong side.  But, here we are.

 

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Js1

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5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Harris winning Michigan and Pennsylvania means Trump has to win all 4 of Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina to get to 270.

Interesting to me that there aren’t too many plausible scenarios where Nevada is the difference maker.

It's only 6 EVs, so it's not even close to a tipping point state. 

The only time it's a diff maker is if Trump wins GA, AZ and PA and Harris wins NC, MI and WI.  Whoever wins NV wins (either Trump 271 or Harris 273). 

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wood

wood 11225

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Sigh, nsiap.  Seriously, fuck Brett Favre. What a POS.

Mr. Fav-ruh, didn't you endorse Trump in 2020? So it's fine for YOU to endorse a candidate, but other celebs, i.e. pop stars, shouldn't do it?  Do I have that right? Just trying to follow along. Would you also say it's a bad thing for undecided voters to be swayed by their favorite quarterback's endorsement?

No? 

Interesting. 

Keep showing your true self to the world, Brett. It's damn good entertainment watching you step in shit over and over and over. Just continue showing your ass like you always do, but hey, no pics, ok?

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Js1

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Just a reminder - Taylor didn't tell anyone who to vote for.  She said she did her research and made her choice and encouraged people to do their research and register to vote.

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Red Five

Red Five 40852

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I don’t think I’ve ever seen a gaslighting machine quite like Vance. Just heard a clip of him blaming the media for “harassing the citizens of Springfield.”

I’d probably rather listen to Trump speak at this point. At least sometimes I laugh.

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The Dog

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1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

One feels slightly more likely than the other. I’ll leave it up to the big brains in here to figure out which…

IMG_6110.png

Black turnout isn't dropping with a black candidate at the top of the ticket.

C'mon Dave.

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linux

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5 minutes ago, wood said:

Sigh, nsiap.  Seriously, fuck Brett Favre. What a POS.

Mr. Fav-ruh, didn't you endorse Trump in 2020? So it's fine for YOU to endorse a candidate, but other celebs, i.e. pop stars, shouldn't do it.  Do I have that right? Would you also say it's a bad thing for undecided voters to be swayed by their favorite quarterback's endorsement?

No? 

Interesting. 

Keep showing your true self to the world, Brett. It's damn good entertainment watching you step in shit over and over and over. Just continue showing your ass like you always do, but hey, no pics, ok?

Let these fuckers not endorse Trump, let them all keep quiet and shut their fucking mouths on who should vote for who and the rest will keep endorsing Kamala, win win.

PS Trump billboards literally say "Endorsed by Elon Musk!" what a sad sad sad state of affairs.

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Snake Diggity

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12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's only 6 EVs, so it's not even close to a tipping point state. 

The only time it's a diff maker is if Trump wins GA, AZ and PA and Harris wins NC, MI and WI.  Whoever wins NV wins (either Trump 271 or Harris 273). 

Yeah if Harris wins NC but loses PA…that seems implausible to me.

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Welch

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12 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

One feels slightly more likely than the other. I’ll leave it up to the big brains in here to figure out which…

IMG_6110.png

Why would black turnout need to decrease for his second scenario to be true?  Wouldn’t Trump benefit more if he got 12% of the black vote, and blacks turned out at 69%?  Or higher?

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7771

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3 hours ago, Thatguy said:

I get what you are trying to say but what I mean is the average Trumper in a blue state has been accustomed to working inside a more liberally run infrastructure than a Texan. Everything from worker laws and rights to what happens at your kid's school is just different. A Trumper Texan would walk in there swinging his far right dick around and get told to fuck all the way off even by fellow Trumpers. West coasters, no matter their political affiliations, are just more attuned to liberal systems.  It's the same way here. We have this idea that Austin is liberal. Let the people that say that go to where my wife was born, Berkeley and see what REAL liberal is.

Yeah, I occasionally run into the Trumper Texans up here who think they're going to tell us how it's gonna be.  Doesn't typically end well for them.

And yeah, while Austin is liberal for Texas, it's still in Texas.

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wood

wood 11225

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1 hour ago, linux said:

Let these fuckers not endorse Trump, let them all keep quiet and shut their fucking mouths on who should vote for who and the rest will keep endorsing Kamala, win win.

PS Trump billboards literally say "Endorsed by Elon Musk!" what a sad sad sad state of affairs.

Yep. I have no problem with anyone endorsing or not endorsing any candidate, and like Mahomes, I can get along with people who disagree with me politically. I operate on the belief that the vast majority of us in the middle want similar outcomes and mostly disagree on the best routes to those outcomes ... and it's the fringe extremists that are fucking things up.

Favre, though. Just such a fucking pos hypocrite. Basically he's fine with anyone endorsing Trump, fine with people not endorsing a candidate at all, and has a problem with non-QB celebs endorsing candidates. Such a bizarre, self-unaware take.

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Chewbacca

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3 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

One thing the Trump/maga movement has shown me is 40% of Americans (and probably 70% of white Americans) are absolutely mean, ignorant, selfish pieces of shit. 

I didn't think that before 2016.  It's really depressing to think that but it's true. 

One thing it's shown me is that I cannot wait for the Boomers to die off.  Yes, there are good ones out there, but as a whole they are just a selfish, shitty group of people who need to go.

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Tuco

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6 minutes ago, Welch said:

Why would black turnout need to decrease for his second scenario to be true?  Wouldn’t Trump benefit more if he got 12% of the black vote, and blacks turned out at 69%?  Or higher?

Um, you may want to give that a little more thought. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17533

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8 minutes ago, Welch said:

Why would black turnout need to decrease for his second scenario to be true?  Wouldn’t Trump benefit more if he got 12% of the black vote, and blacks turned out at 69%?  Or higher?

Because of math. Kamala would still be getting more net votes for each black voter. 

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7771

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2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I think the thing that confuses me most about Trump supporters is that a lot of them know he lies all the time, and yet somehow they think the things he says will really happen or are true. Anyone with the brain the size of a walnut understands that you can’t trust anything a liar says about anything, so you can’t trust him to do what you want him to do. It’s crazy. 

My MIL is like this.  She justifies it by saying they all lie all the time, so his lying is somehow justified because everyone does it.

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