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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

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bernorange

bernorange 8362

Posted
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12 minutes ago, South Austin said:

With the way his campaign is going, in a couple weeks he's going to announce a bill that would provide all Americans with free tickets to any Taylor Swift concert, and on-site abortion services provided at each venue.

"... The beating heart of Rome is not the marble of the senate, it's the sand of the coliseum. ..."

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

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For Harris to surpass 400 EVs, she would need to win every swing state along with TX, FL and OH. I haven't seen any evidence that today supports this as a strong possibility. Impossible? No. Likely, No. 

The big problem with Trump and polling is the Trump voters who understand they have zero defense in voting for him. They just will give him their vote but they won't admit it to anyone. They definitely won't tell a pollster.

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linux

linux 1660

Posted
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21 minutes ago, Red Five said:

You know it is pretty weird that only swing states are stolen from Dotard. The dems somehow never steal, say, Oklahoma or Mississippi. 

The stupid morons still think they were stolen just not enough to win.

I am not fucking kidding when I say 45% of the population might as well be neo nazi zombies, the post apocalypse came just with dumbass people, if they were 51% then it would be the fourth reich.

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Red Five

Red Five 40862

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2 minutes ago, ROFL BOX said:

FB_IMG_1726756032910.jpg

I have had some experience with elderly narcissists. Their "casual bullshitting" from their earlier years quickly turns into "Just say whatever pops into your head. It doesn't matter if it's true or not, because if you're saying it, that means it's true." 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105157

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4 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

It really is amazing how ignorant he is on just about any subject he speaks about.   Like stunningly ignorant. 

The "up is down, down is up" degree of it is what still amazes - and will ALWAYS amaze - me.

He constantly says "nobody knows more about X than me!"  When reality is that whatever X is, his fucking take on the subject demonstrates that he knows absolutely fucking NOTHING about X.  It's not that he's engaging in puffery, or exaggerating the level of his expertise -- it's that he declares that he is the world's foremost expert on any number of any subjects when the reality is that he is the world's premiere fucking idiot about each such subject.

And half this country fucking believes him, because we have glorified and weaponized abject stupidity.

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heso

heso 2813

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49 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The big thing with PA was the vote by mail was ridiculously slow to count and there was A LOT of it (1.5 million ballots).  The one good thing about it not being a COVID election is that most voters have indicated in PA polling is that they are going to vote in person.  I think Suffolk had it 72/25 or something, which was similar to 2022, and Fetterman was declared the winner at 1am eastern time. 

The media was able to declare Whitmer the winner just after midnight in Michigan; it took until the next morning for Ron Johnson to be declared the winner in Wisconsin.  

I think we will get Election Night calls in NC, MI, PA and possibly Wisconsin, unless it's decided by 26k votes like the 2022 senate race was.  GA may take a while, but the 2022 run-off was called right after midnight and it was a high turnout runoff - 3.5m votes and 2020 was 4.8m. 

Not even going to bother with AZ and NV, but with NV, whatever Ralston says the day before the Election, that's what I am going with, because he picks the winners.

PA could have been called on election night in 2020. The state was publishing their mail in ballot requests and return rates by party affiliation in the weeks leading up to the election. I remember telling my team at work the Friday before the election that if Trump was up by less than X votes he’s going to lose and it would take 2 days to verify. 

I understand not wanting to call it until it was confirmed, but even Shapiro was on tv as AG the next day saying that it was inevitable that Biden would pass Trump and it was just a matter of adding them up. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48110

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50 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Something smells in that lack of a national Teamsters endorsement. 

They should work on election new union leadership...

42 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Of course he is, because he’s an impulsive idiot who knows nothing about economics. So he inevitably proposed dumb shit that will lease to 

But specifically: the 2020 stimulus was a significant contributor to the 2022 inflationary spike. That includes the $1,200 checks Trump had his name printed on and attached to a letter bearing his signature. And of course, he signed the CARES Act that authorized the stimulus payments. 

Tl;dr: Trump’s fingerprints are all over government spending that contributed to the recent inflation that everyone blames Biden for.

I'll field this one becuase I've seen it repeatedly in real life; the first stimulus was fine and necessary, it was the second Biden stimulus that really fucked everything up. 

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Red Five

Red Five 40862

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20 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I have had some experience with elderly narcissists. Their "casual bullshitting" from their earlier years quickly turns into "Just say whatever pops into your head. It doesn't matter if it's true or not, because if you're saying it, that means it's true." 

As an example I always go back to..... said elderly narcissist tells me he has stopped drinking completely, and hasn't had a drop to drink in a month. Problem: He told me this while holding a glass of wine. True story. 

"Um, I'm watching you drink wine as we speak."

"Oh, well, this is the first in a month."  

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Js1

Js1 85414

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9 minutes ago, heso said:

PA could have been called on election night in 2020. The state was publishing their mail in ballot requests and return rates by party affiliation in the weeks leading up to the election. I remember telling my team at work the Friday before the election that if Trump was up by less than X votes he’s going to lose and it would take 2 days to verify. 

I understand not wanting to call it until it was confirmed, but even Shapiro was on tv as AG the next day saying that it was inevitable that Biden would pass Trump and it was just a matter of adding them up. 

Most people knew MI, WI and PA and NV would eventually be called for Biden. It was like big massive blue bubbles in SEPA of outstanding votes in places Grump was losing 87-11 and shit

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48110

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13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Fox News did an over sample of black voters in 7 swing states 

Harris 82/12

Remind me why everyone thinks he is winning 20-25% of the black vote?

I mean, I find it incomprehensible he's getting 12% of the black vote, and yet here we are...

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Most people knew MI, WI and PA and NV would eventually be called for Biden. It was like big massive blue bubbles in SEPA of outstanding votes in places Grump was losing 87-11 and shit

but but when I went to bed at 1am Trump was easily winning PA. Then when I woke up, somehow Biden had more votes. I saw a video of a vote counter pulling out a box of ballots from under her desk. It was rigged. Saw it with my own eyes. Do your research. 😀

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27578

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1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

It's more frustration than bitching and moaning. That being said, for context, I was still nervous well into the 3rd quarter of the Michigan game. 

PA just feels much more sticky and not moving positively towards Harris with the momentum we see in other places. 

It makes more sense when you realize it’s Pennsyltucky

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15068

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Would appreciate hearing thoughts on Scaramucci’s statements on Trump. He believes a not insignificant reason Trump is running is because he fears all of the legal threats he faces. He wants the Presidency not only for grifting and power, but to stay out of jail and avoid massive legal fees. 

So let’s just pretend for a minute this is true. Do you think Harris and Trump have had back channel conversations about pardons? If they have, what would Trump do to secure the pardon? When would he and Harris cement an agreement? And The Mooch is not assuming this is only done after Election Day.

For example, assume internal polling shows Trump he’s going to lose. Would he try to get an agreement with her before Election Day? 

The whole idea is nutty, but then that’s The Mooch for you. 
 

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

Posted
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Just now, CooterBrown said:

On a booming stock market day, guess which company is one of the biggest losers.

11a324e59943842477c43b0cf108328f.jpg

giphy.gif

I have zero doubt that Trump will come out ahead in selling that stock, and others will be left holding the back when the stock ultimately drops to $0.

It's just like how Trump supporters bet their life on the 2020 prediction markets that Trump would win. 

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hookem2010

hookem2010 2624

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53 minutes ago, Js1 said:

LOL this is funny: https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-will-win/

Interesting model, but come on now bro, Harris is not winning 400 EVs. I fucking wish. 

In late 2020 and early 2021, this reporter wrote several stories focusing on the election predictions advanced by Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University. I was intrigued by the highly original methodology Miller deployed in calling the trends, and outcomes, first in the presidential race, then for the two Georgia senatorial contests, where the surprise twin victories gave Democrats control of the upper chamber.

In all three 2020 contests, Miller beat virtually every pollster, and modeler parsing multiple voter surveys. He missed the size of Biden’s win in the electoral college by just 12 votes, tagging every state for the correct column save Georgia. For the two senate runoffs, Miller refined his approach to sorting data on the Peach State, and scored again. A week before Election Day on December 6, 2020, the polls gave Republican David Perdue a wide lead over Democrat Jon Ossoff, and showed the GOP’s Kelly Loeffler in a dead heat versus opponent Raphael Warnock. By contrast, Miller’s numbers had Loeffler heading for a big loss, and Ossoff en route to a modest victory. Once again, the contrarian academic nailed it: Miller was just 0.2% short on Warnock’s 2.0% margin, and precisely on target in forecasting Ossoff’s 1.0% final bulge at the ballot box.

For gauging Biden-Trump rematch, Miller developed a “generalized, linear model” based on results from the most recent sixteen presidential elections starting in 1960. Starting with that year’s Kennedy-Nixon race, every presidential race has been decided by 538 electoral votes. “The model’s based on a lot of historical data,” says Miller. It shows that the daily pricing on PredicitIt translates closely into the share of the popular vote favoring each candidate. Say on a certain day, bettors give candidate A a quote of 52 cents, amounting to 52% chance of winning. By Miller’s reckoning, those 52% odds should also mean that at that moment, the best forecast holds that 52% of likely voters plan to cast their ballots for candidate A.

Then, Trump staged a comeback. In the days before the September 10 Trump-Harris debate, Harris was still ahead, but Trump had nearly caught up. “At that point, the race was essentially a tossup,” observes Miller. “The forecast for the Democrats was 288.” It was the onstage battle in Philadelphia that wrecked the 78-year old former POTUS, according to the Miller numbers. Within a day after the candidates left the podium, Harris had jumped to exactly over 400 electoral votes. The Harris endorsement from Taylor Swift, secured the day of the debate, probably helped sink Trump’s chances, according to Miller. Since then, Harris has maintained for 400-plus vote total.

As of September 16, PredictIt is showing a price of 55 cents for Harris, and 45 cents for Trump, the reverse of the scenario before Biden’s departure. Once again, those odds translate in 55% of the popular vote for the Democrat according to Miller’s model. If the situation persists, Trump faces an absolute rout. “It would be somewhere between the defeats of Barry Goldwater by Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Bob Dole by Bill Clinton in 1996,” says Miller. “We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state.”

 

If Kamala wins 400 EVs, I will find out what my true minimum refractory period is.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

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1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

Would appreciate hearing thoughts on Scaramucci’s statements on Trump. He believes a not insignificant reason Trump is running is because he fears all of the legal threats he faces. He wants the Presidency not only for grifting and power, but to stay out of jail and avoid massive legal fees. 

So let’s just pretend for a minute this is true. Do you think Harris and Trump have had back channel conversations about pardons? If they have, what would Trump do to secure the pardon? When would he and Harris cement an agreement? And The Mooch is not assuming this is only done after Election Day.

For example, assume internal polling shows Trump he’s going to lose. Would he try to get an agreement with her before Election Day? 

The whole idea is nutty, but then that’s The Mooch for you. 
 

 

I could see that more as a post-election day idea. I don't see it happening but the small remote chance of Trump agreeing to admit he lost in exchange Harris or Biden agree to pardon him. 

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Js1

Js1 85414

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Would appreciate hearing thoughts on Scaramucci’s statements on Trump. He believes a not insignificant reason Trump is running is because he fears all of the legal threats he faces. He wants the Presidency not only for grifting and power, but to stay out of jail and avoid massive legal fees. 

So let’s just pretend for a minute this is true. Do you think Harris and Trump have had back channel conversations about pardons? If they have, what would Trump do to secure the pardon? When would he and Harris cement an agreement? And The Mooch is not assuming this is only done after Election Day.

For example, assume internal polling shows Trump he’s going to lose. Would he try to get an agreement with her before Election Day? 

The whole idea is nutty, but then that’s The Mooch for you. 
 

 

No pardons! 

But realistically, idk. If he agrees to concede without a fight and never run for office again, maybe? I’d hate it but also would be so relieved this ain’t being dragged into January with frivolous legal challenges. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105157

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

No pardons! 

But realistically, idk. If he agrees to concede without a fight and never run for office again, maybe? I’d hate it but also would be so relieved this ain’t being dragged into January with frivolous legal challenges. 

No.  NO NO NO NO NO.

Because you can't make that a binding and enforceable deal, and Trump will NEVER EVER follow that deal voluntarily.  You could make the deal, he could admit to a global audience "I am a criminal who committed many crimes, I am grateful for being pardoned, and I swear and promise that I will never run for office again," and before the day is out, he would be at a rally saying "did you see how I outfoxed Crooked Joe and Krazy Kamala?  They wiped the slate clean of all of their fake charges, so nothing can stop us now!  I am announcing my candidacy to be your favorite president in 2028!"

Just now, chainsaw said:

Al Pacino Money GIF

This is the correct offer.

We didn't grant concessions to Germany and Japan.  We turned their rubble into rubble and nuked them until they presented an UNCONDITIONAL surrender.  We have to play this ALL THE WAY OUT.

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27578

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19 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

They should work on election new union leadership...

I'll field this one becuase I've seen it repeatedly in real life; the first stimulus was fine and necessary, it was the second Biden stimulus that really fucked everything up. 

Because Trump, who is literally talking about price controls on groceries and capping interest rates on credit cards via executive order would have been absolutely against a second stimulus had he been re-elected 

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Js1

Js1 85414

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11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I mean, I find it incomprehensible he's getting 12% of the black vote, and yet here we are...

I was reading something about how the whole immigration thing isn’t just to stoke white racist outrage but also because it gives black Americans someone to look down on. They’re trying to start a race war against immigrants 

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17685

Posted
Posted
No pardons! 
But realistically, idk. If he agrees to concede without a fight and never run for office again, maybe? I’d hate it but also would be so relieved this ain’t being dragged into January with frivolous legal challenges. 

Why would anyone consider a deal with him? You have to know he won’t abide by it. So he gets something and you get nothing.

giphy.gif
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17625

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8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

No pardons! 

But realistically, idk. If he agrees to concede without a fight and never run for office again, maybe? I’d hate it but also would be so relieved this ain’t being dragged into January with frivolous legal challenges. 

How do you enforce that? 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32998

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Enforce it? You tell him that Biden will pardon him on January 19th because politically Harris can't do it. 

Then you don't pardon him because fuck him. You do to Trump what he has done to people his whole life. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48110

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3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

No.  NO NO NO NO NO.

Because you can't make that a binding and enforceable deal, and Trump will NEVER EVER follow that deal voluntarily.  You could make the deal, he could admit to a global audience "I am a criminal who committed many crimes, I am grateful for being pardoned, and I swear and promise that I will never run for office again," and before the day is out, he would be at a rally saying "did you see how I outfoxed Crooked Joe and Krazy Kamala?  They wiped the slate clean of all of their fake charges, so nothing can stop us now!  I am announcing my candidacy to be your favorite president in 2028!"

This is the correct offer.

We didn't grant concessions to Germany and Japan.  We turned their rubble into rubble and nuked them until they presented an UNCONDITIONAL surrender.  We have to play this ALL THE WAY OUT.

I get your point. But I'd consider it if he signed paperwork saying he was guilty of committing treason, and with sharing our secrets for money. That's about the one thing I could see him doing that would wake half of America from it's reverie. And you make it so that the second he denies it at a later date, or said he didn't do it, it's off to trial. 

3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Because Trump, who is literally talking about price controls on groceries and capping interest rates on credit cards via executive order would have been absolutely against a second stimulus had he been re-elected 

I didn't say it was logical, or even reasonable. I repeated what I was told. 

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I was reading something about how the whole immigration thing isn’t just to stoke white racist outrage but also because it gives black Americans someone to look down on. They’re trying to start a race war against immigrants 

It's a shame those people don't know that the definition of "immigrant" to those people involved is anyone with skin darker than me. And I'm a fucking pasty motherfucker. 

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G650

G650 14263

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Enforce it? You tell him that Biden will pardon him on January 19th because politically Harris can't do it. 

Then you don't pardon him because fuck him. You do to Trump what he has done to people his whole life. 

Star Wars Disney Plus GIF by Disney+

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27578

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1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I didn't say it was logical, or even reasonable. I repeated what I was told.

I know. I run into the same shit. And responding with what I responded to you gets ignored or they say something about jobs estimates being adjusted downward or some other bullshit. So frustrating 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

Posted
Posted

In this scenario, the only deal that should be pursued is the following:

  • Trump admits he lost in 2020 and 2024. In a press conference standing next to Biden and Harris.
  • Asks his supporters to accept this as fact.
  • Pleads guilty to all of the current federal crimes. Can't this eliminate the possibility of appeals?
  • Biden commutes his sentence on his last day.

Therefore he's a federal felon but he just doesn't have to serve time in federal prison. 

This would be a huge win for Dems. It would throw some in the GOP in disarray that Trump abandoned them.

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