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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20631

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Let he who has not had a threesome with his sister-in-law and some other girl cast the first stone

To quote my Surly handle/avatar: "Sex is not a dirty thing. Sex is not a crime. It's a loving act...between 2 or more consenting adults." 

 

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quigley

quigley 1523

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

Congressman Green's wife alleges affair, divorce imminent - Nashville Banner

I was thinking that maybe this could dent his re-election prospects. But wait! Look at who the Dems are running against him, Megan Barry, disgraced former mayor of Nashville.

 

From Wiki:

On January 31, 2018, Barry admitted that she had conducted a two-year long extramarital affair with Nashville Police Sergeant Robert Forrest Jr., the married officer in charge of her security detail, which included extended business trips with just the two of them.[38] Additionally, Barry was the first mayor of Metro Nashville’s government to have created and used a security detail. Forrest and Barry attended various events and activities which included late-night concerts and yoga classes, during which Forrest accrued hundreds of overtime hours.[39] Barry maintained that Forrest was not her direct subordinate,[40] and said that she did not want to "muddy the #metoo movement."[41]

Forrest, two weeks prior to Barry's announcement, filed for retirement from his post as supervisor of mayoral security effective on January 31, the same day Barry admitted to the affair, thus ending his 31-year career with the Nashville Police Department.[42][43]

In March 2018, Barry entered into a plea agreement that required her resignation.[33] On February 23, 2018, Forrest's wife of nearly 30 years, Penny, filed for divorce on grounds of "inappropriate marital conduct" soon after the extramarital affair came to light.[44] Forrest and Barry, both of whom had no criminal record prior to the affair, pleaded guilty to felony theft.[45][46] As part of the plea deal, they were ordered to pay restitution ($11,000 for Barry and $45,000 for Forrest) to the city and complete three years of probation. Both Forrest and Barry can petition to have their convictions wiped off their record if they successfully complete their probation.[43] As of August 2018, Barry and her husband remain married and have continued to attend events together

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quigley

quigley 1523

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4 hours ago, Pancho said:

Needs to be a larger story. Fuck rfk right now

 

Supreme Court won't fix obvious racial gerrymandering in this spring in the South, but Nebraska changes the rules 6 weeks before election.

"Conservatives"

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quigley

quigley 1523

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Chopper said:

There's also a group of reportedly close statewide races in NC

Yes, you missed the GOP's "Leading Thinker and Moralist" and anti-immigration enthusiast, Chris Rufo, getting discovered for having an Ashley Madison account to cheat on his wife, who migrated to the US illegally. He's one of the main guys who writes on behalf of the GOP's racist and christian fascism.  

This affair also involved a reporter. If you search Axios and the Rep's name you'll find her because she wrote a bunch of articles about him

image.png.4c6c70306ff7e96baafd374266741b68.png

 

Russia has to assume all American congressmen are marks for honeypot operations. If it weren't so important, it would be comedy.

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Chopper

Chopper 17119

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Wasn't this engagement called off long ago?

Not based on what various journos were saying last night but I have no idea. Honestly her cheating on him, or not, is not even part of the story we should care about. It's the way she tilted not only her coverage but probably influenced others. 

edit - someone posted a video back on page 728 of a short clip of her speaking and there's definitely notable body language to read as she speaks.

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quigley

quigley 1523

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Gap03 said:

... which, if Texas' little experiment with hand counts is indicative, means certified results from Georgia should be ready just in time for Christmas, but with the state giving up on getting the same number in two consecutive counts and instead reporting them as +/- 2500 for each county.  

BTW - worth a read if you haven't read it as it's equal parts hilarious and infuriating, especially when coupled with the fact that it apparently ended up costing the county 2x as much for less accuracy.

Errors raise questions about Texas hand vote count | The Texas Tribune

 

Worse efficiency is a feature not a bug. A central goal of autocrats is to weaken trust in systems.

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Js1

Js1 85050

Posted
Posted (edited)

Something I want to clear up regarding 2020 polling: 2020 polling was actually quite accurate when it came to Biden's final vote share.  The issue was Trump's numbers were low and whether it was lockdowns or BLM or whatever, most undecided voters picked him late in the cycle. 

Final averages for Biden and vote total for Biden (all via 538):

Arizona - 48.7 -> 49.36
Georgia - 48.5 -> 49.47
Michigan - 51.2 -> 50.62
Nevada - 49.7 -> 50.06
NC - 48.9 -> 48.59
PA - 50.2 -> 49.85
Wisconsin - 52.1 -> 49.45

Swing state average: 49.9 -> 49.63. They were incredibly close on Biden's margin number everywhere but Wisconsin (and it wasn't THAT egregious), when looking at the 7 swing states.  

Cook nails it - 51-44 means there's 5% undecided.   Biden won 51.3 - 46.9, meaning most of them broke late to Trump. 

What you are seeing now is a lot fewer undecided voters who will break late.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-repeat-performance-late-deciding-voters

Prior to the elections this year, polls showed Joe Biden dancing around the 50 percent threshold. The final RealClearPolitics poll average had Biden ahead 51 percent to 44 percent. Fox News had the race at 52-44, while NBC News/Washington Post put it at 52-42. Now, as of late Thursday afternoon, the actual national popular-vote count gives Biden 50.8 percent to Trump’s 47.4 percent, a 3.4-point margin. It would seem, then, that much of the polling came close to nailing Biden’s share of the vote but in the end the undecided voters broke for Trump, as they did four years ago.

This column speculated last week that a slice of voters who seemed intent on voting not just against Trump but also to punish his party may have had second thoughts about putting Democrats in charge of everything.

This year, the undecideds broke moderately back toward Trump, making the race closer than it seemed to be earlier, but not enough to save him from losing five states he won in 2016—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. In congressional elections, the undecideds clearly broke toward Republicans, with some who cast ballots for Biden coming back over to vote for GOP candidates for the House and Senate.

What could have triggered the bout of cold feet among this narrow but apparently pivotal slice of voters? Could it have been all this talk of socialism, defunding police, Medicare-for-all, racial tension, or episodes of urban violence over the summer? Research by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg points in that direction. Toss in, perhaps, some fear that a Democratic president and big Democratic majorities would, if they couldn’t win the game, simply change the rules by packing the Supreme Court or ending the Senate filibuster. In any case, the drop-off in votes from Biden to votes for Democratic House candidates was about 4.2 million nationwide; for Republicans, it was only about 1.8 million.

Edited by Js1
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Ted Lange

Ted Lange 15990

Posted
Posted

image.thumb.png.3413fa4ff825e46ee0f32bd1c67b4986.png
Starting to see some real separation on the betting markets.  Of note, this doesn’t include PredictIt, where Harris is up 57-45   Real clear polling just decided to remove them from their average about a week ago when Kamala went up 10.  No explanation given (they included them for years).  

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Js1

Js1 85050

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

Of note, this doesn’t include PredictIt, where Harris is up 57-45   Real clear polling just decided to remove them from their average about a week ago when Kamala went up 10.  No explanation given (they included them for years).  

RCP is Republicans Cherry Picking.  They definitely won't include things that seriously hurt Trump. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104446

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

She don’t got Herschel Walker. Checkmate

To be fair, Herschel endorsed Captain Crunch, because of his proven leadership and history of military service.

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

It took two hours by hand count to confirm that 3-2 vote.

This checks out, because most Republicans are only capable of counting to potato.

1 hour ago, Celery Man said:

you see the filter is a metaphor

b95baa2c-ff01-4106-96fd-6eed7f5eaa9b_tex

Also....I am firmly on team "change your own goddamned air filter."  FFS.  Nothing pisses me off more than getting an oil change, and they come in to pitch (usually to a woman) "hey, your filter is filthy, you need to change it, we can do that for $70."  First, more often than not, it's fine and doesn't need to be changed (air filters only look pristine for a few hundred miles).  Second....even if it does need changing, you can buy one, screw or click open the mount for it, replace it, and be done in under 5 minutes.  Do it yourself. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104446

Posted
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Just now, Radical Larry said:

Check your cabin air filter too. Not a euphemism. 

In my old car, slightly harder to change than the engine air filter....but not much.  Maybe a 7 minute job, mostly because I had to empty all that accumulated papers and shit outta my glove box.

Bet Tim coulda done it in 4 minutes.

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royiv

royiv 9126

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

In my old car, slightly harder to change than the engine air filter....but not much.  Maybe a 7 minute job, mostly because I had to empty all that accumulated papers and shit outta my glove box.

Bet Tim coulda done it in 4 minutes.

Tim keeps his glove box pristine.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104446

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

He strikes me as a leatherbound notebook with the manual and registration in it kind of guy.

Tim is 100% the kind of guy who 1) keeps his Scout perfectly clean, pristine, and uncluttered, yet 2) if you ask him if he has a 57/64 socket you can borrow, he pops the back open and can hand it to you immediately.  Where did it come from?  Why would he even HAVE such an odd size handy?  Beats the hell outta me, but he now only has it, he knows exactly where it is so he can hand it to you without looking.

Edited by Brisketexan
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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11667

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Something I want to clear up regarding 2020 polling: 2020 polling was actually quite accurate when it came to Biden's final vote share.  The issue was Trump's numbers were low and whether it was lockdowns or BLM or whatever, most undecided voters picked him late in the cycle. 

Final averages for Biden and vote total for Biden (all via 538):

Arizona - 48.7 -> 49.36
Georgia - 48.5 -> 49.47
Michigan - 51.2 -> 50.62
Nevada - 49.7 -> 50.06
NC - 48.9 -> 48.59
PA - 50.2 -> 49.85
Wisconsin - 52.1 -> 49.45

Swing state average: 49.9 -> 49.63. They were incredibly close on Biden's margin number everywhere but Wisconsin (and it wasn't THAT egregious), when looking at the 7 swing states.  

Cook nails it - 51-44 means there's 5% undecided.   Biden won 51.3 - 46.9, meaning most of them broke late to Trump. 

What you are seeing now is a lot fewer undecided voters who will break late.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-repeat-performance-late-deciding-voters

Prior to the elections this year, polls showed Joe Biden dancing around the 50 percent threshold. The final RealClearPolitics poll average had Biden ahead 51 percent to 44 percent. Fox News had the race at 52-44, while NBC News/Washington Post put it at 52-42. Now, as of late Thursday afternoon, the actual national popular-vote count gives Biden 50.8 percent to Trump’s 47.4 percent, a 3.4-point margin. It would seem, then, that much of the polling came close to nailing Biden’s share of the vote but in the end the undecided voters broke for Trump, as they did four years ago.

This column speculated last week that a slice of voters who seemed intent on voting not just against Trump but also to punish his party may have had second thoughts about putting Democrats in charge of everything.

This year, the undecideds broke moderately back toward Trump, making the race closer than it seemed to be earlier, but not enough to save him from losing five states he won in 2016—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. In congressional elections, the undecideds clearly broke toward Republicans, with some who cast ballots for Biden coming back over to vote for GOP candidates for the House and Senate.

What could have triggered the bout of cold feet among this narrow but apparently pivotal slice of voters? Could it have been all this talk of socialism, defunding police, Medicare-for-all, racial tension, or episodes of urban violence over the summer? Research by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg points in that direction. Toss in, perhaps, some fear that a Democratic president and big Democratic majorities would, if they couldn’t win the game, simply change the rules by packing the Supreme Court or ending the Senate filibuster. In any case, the drop-off in votes from Biden to votes for Democratic House candidates was about 4.2 million nationwide; for Republicans, it was only about 1.8 million.

thatsbait.gif.

 

pick the worst polling year in 40 years and figure out how to say it was actually quite good, 

YARN | from a certain point of view. | Star Wars: Episode VI ...

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