2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Fudge Nuggets 19118]

7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I worry about my job being taken by an illegal alien, too.  An illegal alien with PhD in mechanical or electrical engineering.  Please protect me, Donald.

I worry about my supervisor learning my job could be done by any regular surly dumbass.  I hate my job and my company, but I'm less than five years from retirement and get paid mid six figures for about 15 hours per week of legitimate value-added work. 

Still isn't going to stop me from leveraging my recent successes to convince my dumb ass supervisor I better get a bomb ass raise this year or I'm declaring free agency.

[Underdog 28437]

12 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

My neighbors dressed their 10 year old kid up as “creepy Joe Biden” for Halloween and had him yelling “let me smell your hair” to the girls and women that were out trick or treating. The dad has his own last name tattoo’d on his arm, I guess because he might forget. She’s a realtor that graduated from UT. They also raise chickens in their backyard. 
 

sometimes I prefer boring. 

 

[cactusflinthead 27593]

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21022]

7 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Voting against your self-interest to the tune of 61%.  'Murica. 

[Js1 85056]

12 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Good poll. Very believable black crosstab 

NBC has her +3 in favorability this time( 48-45) compared to their July poll (32-50)

Largest 2 month jump since Bush post-9/11

[Snake Diggity 4614]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Good poll. Very believable black crosstab 

NBC has her +3 in favorability this time( 48-45) compared to their July poll (32-50)

Largest 2 month jump since Bush post-9/11

Funny you mention 9/11, because I have thought since it happened that if we were anything other than fucked that Jan 6 would have been a 9/11 style moment in terms of galvanization of the country, and everybody but the absolute nuttiest of the nutty would have been like “ok, that’s enough, fuck Trump and his followers”.

[TexasHooch 5117]

Honest question: What's the value of national polls at this point?  Nationwide popular vote doesn't matter.  Only 7 states do.

[Js1 85056]

 

[Firemans4Horn 17793]

7 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

Honest question: What's the value of national polls at this point?  Nationwide popular vote doesn't matter.  Only 7 states do.

If we see Kamala consistently +5 or better it’s a good sign she’s going to do well electorally on election night. Especially if she is above 50%

[Js1 85056]

4 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

If we see Kamala consistently +5 or better it’s a good sign she’s going to do well electorally on election night. Especially if she is above 50%

above 50% yes. And it’s been debated by how much she has to win the PV by to safely feel like she will win the EC - it could be as low as 1.5 but seeing more and more of her near Biden’s margins spells good news

Also that she’s just getting killed with WWC voters compared to Biden’s polling should feel like the polling is more accurate. The polling overestimated Biden with that demo and obviously he got killed and Trump did better than this polling 

Edited September 22 by Js1

[Js1 85056]

45 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

With third parties, she’s +6

Edited September 22 by Js1

[Hefeweizen 5307]

White no college is the least surprising demo for turnip every time.

[David Dennison 18608]

Good to see Donald securing the inferiority complex vote.

[Js1 85056]

27 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Funny you mention 9/11, because I have thought since it happened that if we were anything other than fucked that Jan 6 would have been a 9/11 style moment in terms of galvanization of the country, and everybody but the absolute nuttiest of the nutty would have been like “ok, that’s enough, fuck Trump and his followers”.

Counterpoint: cult 

[TwiceHorn 31184]

14 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Like who’s fucking whom?

Haha, no more in terms of attraction/relationships.  I make the elementary and probably wrong assumption that bears like cubs and vice versa, like tops like bottoms, etc.  Of course, I realize gay relationships are as manifold as hetero ones.  But if you're going to bother adopting a "persona" like "bear," then you might thing some superficiality comes along with that.

Of course, maybe bear is a label attached to hairy mesomorphs, whether they adopt the "bear lifestyle" or not.  Like, in my younger days, I might have been described as a Twink as a not very hairy ectomorph.  But I'm not gay, effeminate, or probably not that cute, but I still might be a twink.

This is such a classic derail, I love it.  Thanks for the insight.

Edited September 22 by TwiceHorn

[Snake Diggity 4614]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Counterpoint: cult 

Right.  The takeaway was that the “absolute nuttiest of the nutty” makes up like 35% of the country, and another 15% are either evil or too lazy to vote under even the most dire circumstances.

Edited September 22 by Snake Diggity

[Horn Dog 9644]

32 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

Honest question: What's the value of national polls at this point?  Nationwide popular vote doesn't matter.  Only 7 states do.

True and infuriating.  The forefather/1800 dumbasses couldn’t even use popular vote for a tie breaker and instead had to come uo with some dumb convoluted “each state gets one vote” scheme that is still clear as mud (who decides how to vote if a state delegate group is evenly split) and will cause complete chaos if actually needed.

[Pescado_Rojo 19327]

7 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I worry about my supervisor learning my job could be done by any regular surly dumbass.  I hate my job and my company, but I'm less than five years from retirement and get paid mid six figures for about 15 hours per week of legitimate value-added work. 

Still isn't going to stop me from leveraging my recent successes to convince my dumb ass supervisor I better get a bomb ass raise this year or I'm declaring free agency.

[Js1 85056]

22 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

True and infuriating.  The forefather/1800 dumbasses couldn’t even use popular vote for a tie breaker and instead had to come uo with some dumb convoluted “each state gets one vote” scheme that is still clear as mud (who decides how to vote if a state delegate group is evenly split) and will cause complete chaos if actually needed.

Well then didn’t foresee:

Partisan gerrymandering

The U.S. adding a bunch of western states with about 5k people in them who all get an equal vote (ND, SD, WY, MT, ID basically give the GOP 5 free votes in an EC tie and 10 senators)

[Red Five 40593]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Funny you mention 9/11, because I have thought since it happened that if we were anything other than fucked that Jan 6 would have been a 9/11 style moment in terms of galvanization of the country, and everybody but the absolute nuttiest of the nutty would have been like “ok, that’s enough, fuck Trump and his followers”.

I can remember thinking in real time as it was happening, "Well, the good news is that Trump will no longer be a viable candidate for president ever again after this". 

[Pato del Muerto 52322]

49 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

White no college is the least surprising demo for turnip every time.

It does give me pause on the otherwise refreshing notion that not everyone needs to go to college.

[Gatorubet 30064]

7 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I worry about my supervisor learning my job could be done by any regular surly dumbass.  I hate my job and my company, but I'm less than five years from retirement and get paid mid six figures for about 15 hours per week of legitimate value-added work. 

[Js1 85056]

CBS does battleground “estimates” based on their national poll

Nevada - Harris +3

Wisconsin - Harris +3

Michigan - Harris +2

Arizona - Harris +1

NC - Harris +1

PA - tie

GA - Trump +1

NE-02 - Harris +4

That would be 284 for Harris with the potential to hit 303 (trading GA for NC)

[Longhorn94 2427]

Dumb white males are the worst...

[chainsaw 9831]

33 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

True and infuriating.  The forefather/1800 dumbasses couldn’t even use popular vote for a tie breaker and instead had to come uo with some dumb convoluted “each state gets one vote” scheme that is still clear as mud (who decides how to vote if a state delegate group is evenly split) and will cause complete chaos if actually needed.

The hard truth about the founding fathers and the Constitution

Spoiler

It was written by people who are not much smarter than the average American, at a time when "founding documents" were basically a dime a dozen. Most of these fizzled out in ten or fewer years and fade entirely into historical obscurity, like the State of Muskogee, the Republic of Vermont, and the Republic of the Rio Grande.

Remember that secessionist idiot guy from Better Call Saul who wanted to pay Jimmy with fake money from his "sovereign" nation? There's not much difference between him and the founding fathers when it comes to the energy and intellect that went into formation logistics of their respective republics, probably because deep-down they believed whatever the arrangement was would probably be temporary.

I don't have any doubt that the founding fathers were definitely the best and brightest that could be mustered among the rich, white, land owning people who had emancipated from the British Empire. However, it's pretty obvious that they were not thinking very hard about the future and whenever they did think about the future it's clear they weren't thinking things through very clearly.

[Hefeweizen 5307]

2 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

Dumb white males are the worst...

[bolverk 29360]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Funny you mention 9/11, because I have thought since it happened that if we were anything other than fucked that Jan 6 would have been a 9/11 style moment in terms of galvanization of the country, and everybody but the absolute nuttiest of the nutty would have been like “ok, that’s enough, fuck Trump and his followers”.

Just imagine if the demographic composition of the rioters were different. I'd guess the average insurgent was a white male around 50 years old. Now, picture how America would react if the typical person in that crowd were non-white and in his/her 20s or, gawd forbid, wearing a turban.

[Gatorubet 30064]

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

The hard truth about the founding fathers and the Constitution

  Hide contents

It was written by people who are not much smarter than the average American, at a time when "founding documents" were basically a dime a dozen. Most of these fizzled out in ten or fewer years and fade entirely into historical obscurity, like the State of Muskogee, the Republic of Vermont, and the Republic of the Rio Grande.

Remember that secessionist idiot guy from Better Call Saul who wanted to pay Jimmy with fake money from his "sovereign" nation? There's not much difference between him and the founding fathers when it comes to the energy and intellect that went into formation logistics of their respective republics, probably because deep-down they believed whatever the arrangement was would probably be temporary.

I don't have any doubt that the founding fathers were definitely the best and brightest that could be mustered among the rich, white, land owning people who had emancipated from the British Empire. However, it's pretty obvious that they were not thinking very hard about the future and whenever they did think about the future it's clear they weren't thinking things through very clearly.

Well, they seem to be arguing about the future in the federalist and anti-federalist papers.   And it is abundantly clear that they thought (or hoped) that their efforts would not be temporary.  The fact that the Articles of Confederation and Perpetual Union did not allow for a state to withdraw from the compact is a pretty good sign of that.  And that title of the document thing. 

[HenryJames 65868]

12 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

Dumb white males are the worst...

New Surly motto.

[chainsaw 9831]

Just now, Gatorubet said:

Well, they seem to be arguing about the future in the federalist and anti-federalist papers.   And it is abundantly clear that they thought (or hoped) that their efforts would not be temporary.  The fact that the Articles of Confederation and Perpetual Union did not allow for a state to withdraw from the compact is a pretty good sign of that.  And that title of the document thing. 

I mean a guy can hope his marriage will last a long time, but deep down he knows he can't keep her on the farm once she's met Karl Hungus

[Red Five 40593]

10 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Just imagine if the demographic composition of the rioters were different. I'd guess the average insurgent was a white male around 50 years old. Now, picture how America would react if the typical person in that crowd were non-white and in his/her 20s or, gawd forbid, wearing a turban.

Taking down the American flag flying out front, smearing shit all over the walls inside the Capitol, etc.

You know, "patriots". 

[chainsaw 9831]

8 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I worry about my supervisor learning my job could be done by any regular surly dumbass.  I hate my job and my company, but I'm less than five years from retirement and get paid mid six figures for about 15 hours per week of legitimate value-added work. 

Still isn't going to stop me from leveraging my recent successes to convince my dumb ass supervisor I better get a bomb ass raise this year or I'm declaring free agency.

Fuck picket fences, this is the actual American dream. Of course it's not really attainable for like 99% of people.

[TwiceHorn 31184]

18 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

The hard truth about the founding fathers and the Constitution

  Hide contents

It was written by people who are not much smarter than the average American, at a time when "founding documents" were basically a dime a dozen. Most of these fizzled out in ten or fewer years and fade entirely into historical obscurity, like the State of Muskogee, the Republic of Vermont, and the Republic of the Rio Grande.

Remember that secessionist idiot guy from Better Call Saul who wanted to pay Jimmy with fake money from his "sovereign" nation? There's not much difference between him and the founding fathers when it comes to the energy and intellect that went into formation logistics of their respective republics, probably because deep-down they believed whatever the arrangement was would probably be temporary.

I don't have any doubt that the founding fathers were definitely the best and brightest that could be mustered among the rich, white, land owning people who had emancipated from the British Empire. However, it's pretty obvious that they were not thinking very hard about the future and whenever they did think about the future it's clear they weren't thinking things through very clearly.

Well, I think I disagree.  While their shortsightedness is evident in hindsight, they crafted a revolutionary form of government when their peers, notably France, failed miserably in a relatively short period of time, while ours has endured to the present.  And, while racially and ethno-religiousy pretty homogeneous, they put together quite an array of factions and interests to do it.

[chainsaw 9831]

9 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, I think I disagree.  While their shortsightedness is evident in hindsight, they crafted a revolutionary form of government when their peers, notably France, failed miserably in a relatively short period of time, while ours has endured to the present.  And, while racially and ethno-religiousy pretty homogeneous, they put together quite an array of factions and interests to do it.

Can we really attribute its success to anything besides good fortune, military superiority, and a willingness to commit genocide?

And we had to fight a civil war for it to "endure" past like 70 years. I don't think any historian could look at the trajectory of this country and say "damn, I guess they're lucky they had the Electoral College and giving four senators to the Dakotas otherwise they'd have been screwed"

[quigley 1523]

37 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

Dumb white males are the worst...

Yeah...lets make it super easy for them to get guns.

[Js1 85056]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Can we really attribute its success to anything besides good fortune, military superiority, and a willingness to commit genocide?

And we had to fight a civil war for it to "endure" past like 70 years. I don't think any historian could look at the trajectory of this country and say "damn, I guess they're lucky they had the Electoral College and giving four senators to the Dakotas otherwise they'd have been screwed"

Good geography helped too. Flanked on either side by oceans and our northern neighbor was a still colony for almost the first 100 years of our existence and our southern neighbor was also a colony for the first 30 years of our existence and then we beat them in a war 25 years later. No serious threats to our sovereignty besides ourselves for a long ass time 

['stache 21743]

One thing they never envisioned was that the populous would become so stupid and gullible making it impossible to ever exercise the amendment process ever again for anything meaningful.

[chainsaw 9831]

29 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

they seem to be arguing about the future in the federalist and anti-federalist papers.

This was a point I wanted to make before, but I'd forgotten about, supporting the idea that the founding fathers were the intellectual equivalent of today's mediocre white male demographic among which Trump overperforms.

The point is that these guys were basically spending way too much time on the forums and podcasts of their time. Guys who loved the sound of their own voices and spent way too much time convincing themselves that their own (sometimes good, sometimes bad) ideas were deserving of becoming the law.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

2 hours ago, TexasHooch said:

Honest question: What's the value of national polls at this point?  Nationwide popular vote doesn't matter.  Only 7 states do.

Someone posted this the other day for NC which I thought was insightful.   You can get a lot of insight from how an individual state will do if you know the overall national baseline to start from. 
 

[Js1 85056]

That’s a good succinct graph - the better the margin for Harris, the more likely the swing states go in the same direction, like 2020. The smaller the margin, the more one or two things could fall in Trump’s favor, like 2016

[Gatorubet 30064]

12 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

This was a point I wanted to make before, but I'd forgotten about, supporting the idea that the founding fathers were the intellectual equivalent of today's mediocre white male demographic among which Trump overperforms..

 

I think that is a spectacularly bad take.  But I guess it’s conceivably possible that all the respected historians are wrong and you are correct.  

 

[jimmyjazz 45513]

If I squint, it looks to me like NC has been 6-7 points more "red" than the US as a whole since 2008.

[Js1 85056]

I decided to do a compare/contrast of the 2020 NBC September poll, 2020 exits and 2024 NBC September poll

Biden 51-43 (+8) / actual was 51-47 (+4)
Black voters: Biden +85 / actual was +84
18-34: Biden +29 / actual was +24 (for 18-29, no 18-34 breakdown)
Women: Biden +20 / actual was +11
Whites with college degrees: Biden +10 / actual was +15
Independents: Biden +6 / actual was +9
Seniors: Biden +4 / actual was -4
White voters: Trump +9 / actual was +12
Men: Trump +5 / actual was +2
Whites without college degrees: Trump +23 / actual was +32

NBC's 2020 poll mostly missed the mark on women, whites without college degrees and seniors (in Trump's favor) and whites with college degrees (in Biden's favor)

2024 NBC poll: Harris 49-44 (+5)
Black voters: Harris +78
18-34: Harris +23
Women: Harris +21
Whites with college degrees: +21
Independents: Harris +8
Men: Trump +12
White voters: Trump +9
Whites without college degrees: +28

[David Dennison 18608]

31 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

This was a point I wanted to make before, but I'd forgotten about, supporting the idea that the founding fathers were the intellectual equivalent of today's mediocre white male demographic among which Trump overperforms.

The point is that these guys were basically spending way too much time on the forums and podcasts of their time. Guys who loved the sound of their own voices and spent way too much time convincing themselves that their own (sometimes good, sometimes bad) ideas were deserving of becoming the law.

[David Dennison 18608]

44 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Can we really attribute its success to anything besides good fortune, military superiority, and a willingness to commit genocide?

And we had to fight a civil war for it to "endure" past like 70 years. I don't think any historian could look at the trajectory of this country and say "damn, I guess they're lucky they had the Electoral College and giving four senators to the Dakotas otherwise they'd have been screwed"

Wait, what?

[chainsaw 9831]

17 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

 

I think that is a spectacularly bad take.  But I guess it’s conceivably possible that all the respected historians are wrong and you are correct.  

 

 

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

They weren't dumb, they weren't smart. They were average. Sorry if that offends you, but it's pretty clear.

[chainsaw 9831]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I decided to do a compare/contrast of the 2020 NBC September poll, 2020 exits and 2024 NBC September poll

Biden 51-43 (+8) / actual was 51-47 (+4)
Black voters: Biden +85 / actual was +84
18-34: Biden +29 / actual was +24 (for 18-29, no 18-34 breakdown)
Women: Biden +20 / actual was +11
Whites with college degrees: Biden +10 / actual was +15
Independents: Biden +6 / actual was +9
Seniors: Biden +4 / actual was -4
White voters: Trump +9 / actual was +12
Men: Trump +5 / actual was +2
Whites without college degrees: Trump +23 / actual was +32

NBC's 2020 poll mostly missed the mark on women, whites without college degrees and seniors (in Trump's favor) and whites with college degrees (in Biden's favor)

2024 NBC poll: Harris 49-44 (+5)
Black voters: Harris +78
18-34: Harris +23
Women: Harris +21
Whites with college degrees: +21
Independents: Harris +8
Men: Trump +12
White voters: Trump +9
Whites without college degrees: +28

The 2020 men thing is surprising

[David Dennison 18608]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

They weren't dumb, they weren't smart. They were average. Sorry if that offends you, but it's pretty clear.

Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, James Madison, and Alexander Hamilton were all wicked smart.

George Washington, while not an intellectual giant, had an inordinate amount of common sense and wisdom.

Edited September 22 by David Dennison

[chainsaw 9831]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, James Madison, and Alexander Hamilton were all wicked smart.

George Washington, while not an intellectual giant, had an inordinate amount of common sense and wisdom.

As I said, it's a hard truth.

They were wicked smart for their time, but would be pretty average today.

[G650 13990]

39 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

This was a point I wanted to make before, but I'd forgotten about, supporting the idea that the founding fathers were the intellectual equivalent of today's mediocre white male demographic among which Trump overperforms.

The point is that these guys were basically spending way too much time on the forums and podcasts of their time. Guys who loved the sound of their own voices and spent way too much time convincing themselves that their own (sometimes good, sometimes bad) ideas were deserving of becoming the law.