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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Js1

Js1 87185

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I find it hard to believe that out of those 7 states, six are +1 and one is +2.  It’s like they aren’t even polling people and just putting down some close numbers in the margin of error so they can claim to be right either way.

Yeah, Emerson always seems to just move things up 1 point or down 1 point.  Always within +1/2 Trump to +1/2 Harris.  Never really deviates.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19455

Posted
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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

More

 

Is this another one of them bullshit polling groups?  These polls are fucking horrible.

 

11 hours ago, Js1 said:

Nothing high quality post debate. 

but we are about 30 days from the last AZ polls by Fox/CNN so maybe we get 2 this week. Would like to see Siena get back in there too

Jesus Christ, take your fucking time guys.  Broke ass GQP can pump out polls every day, but others are like "Maybe we should get another poll out there.  Nah, I got my shows to catch up on first."

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49504

Posted
Posted
Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

Is this another one of them bullshit polling groups?  These polls are fucking horrible.

 

Jesus Christ, take your fucking time guys.  Broke ass GQP can pump out polls every day, but others are like "Maybe we should get another poll out there.  Nah, I got my shows to catch up on first."

Well, high quality polls take actual time an effort, and bullshit polls that are half made up and call the same 100 people and get mostly the same answers are easy AF to spew out. So there's probably a reason they aren't flooding the zone with made up bullshit every other day. Or is that what you want?

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Bullneck

Bullneck 19528

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I find it hard to believe that out of those 7 states, six are +1 and one is +2.  It’s like they aren’t even polling people and just putting down some close numbers in the margin of error so they can claim to be right either way.

Hey, if the game you’re watching is 24-23 at the start of the fourth quarter, you’re going to watch.  
 

It’s 73-0 you might be tempted to check out the other games.  

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 53505

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Everything about all of this is making me question my sanity.

It’s the kind of mistakes that get made by current AI.  So not only are we in a simulation, but the machine driving it isn’t very advanced.  Probably also explains why our current AI behaves as it does- it can’t be any better than the overriding AI. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21785

Posted
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Just now, MissingInAction said:

Everything about all of this is making me question my sanity.

I've decided to believe that come Election Day enough people will vote Kamala for a significant popular vote and EC victory. 

At this point I can't be bothered by "good" or "bad" polls as it seems impossible to trust methodology or even the people they are polling. Would rather be optimistic heading into a make or break moment for this country and our society, since we'll have plenty of time (a generation or two) to be devastated by another Trump victory.

 

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Js1

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Posted
Posted

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation - topline and (Hispanic numbers)

PRES - Trump 50, Harris 44 (Harris 49-43 with Hispanics)
Senate - Cruz 48, Allred 45 (Allred 50-39 with Hispanics)

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9991

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Posted
4 hours ago, Constant said:

Considering he doesn’t exercise at all, that’s an insane amount of food.

This.  I like McDonald's, but from a health perspective, it's like a once-twice a year thing while travelling.  It just does a number on my overall system. I can not fathom how he eats that shit on the reg and stays upright. 

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation - topline and (Hispanic numbers)

PRES - Trump 50, Harris 44 (Harris 49-43 with Hispanics)
Senate - Cruz 48, Allred 45 (Allred 50-39 with Hispanics)

Charlie Brown Football GIF

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 11064

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Posted
1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

I can not fathom how he eats that shit on the reg and stays upright. 

The same way that some old people have smoked for 75 years and have no ill effects from doing so while others die at 50 from smoking. It's just a numbers game that we as a society have lost.

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Js1

Js1 87185

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Posted

Re: NYT polls, Cohn tweeted these are Trump’s best polls and don’t totally match anything else, so they may just be outliers

NYT described their methodology as “if Trump voters are red M&Ms, we are adding a few extra to the bowl” - ie, over sample of rural/WWC voters

These polls are much more +GOP in weighing and the recall vote is like +3 Trump when Biden won AZ and GA by 1

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26851

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation - topline and (Hispanic numbers)

PRES - Trump 50, Harris 44 (Harris 49-43 with Hispanics)
Senate - Cruz 48, Allred 45 (Allred 50-39 with Hispanics)

THE 👏 HISPANIC 👏 VOTE👏 IS 👏 NOT 👏 A 👏 THING

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18324

Posted
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17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Re: NYT polls, Cohn tweeted these are Trump’s best polls and don’t totally match anything else, so they may just be outliers

NYT described their methodology as “if Trump voters are red M&Ms, we are adding a few extra to the bowl” - ie, over sample of rural/WWC voters

These polls are much more +GOP in weighing and the recall vote is like +3 Trump when Biden won AZ and GA by 1

Did they not adjust the weights after oversampling?

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hookem2010

hookem2010 2700

Posted
Posted

Question about the Hispanic vote that may or may not be a thing. What is the greatest factor in the significant Trump support in Texas? Machismo culture that's attracted to Trump specifically, fuck you, got mine or highly religious group of people voting against abortion? 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106899

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Question about the Hispanic vote that may or may not be a thing. What is the greatest factor in the significant Trump support in Texas? Machismo culture that's attracted to Trump specifically, fuck you, got mine or highly religious group of people voting against abortion? 

Yes.

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9991

Posted
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39 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Re: NYT polls, Cohn tweeted these are Trump’s best polls and don’t totally match anything else, so they may just be outliers

NYT described their methodology as “if Trump voters are red M&Ms, we are adding a few extra to the bowl” - ie, over sample of rural/WWC voters

These polls are much more +GOP in weighing and the recall vote is like +3 Trump when Biden won AZ and GA by 1

I'm just not sure how you can accept polling that shows a 10 point swing in AZ in the space of a month without a major negative news event for the candidate who is now losing. That's almost you have to throw the entire poll out and start over thing.

I get that Biden trailed Trump pretty consistently by 5 pre debate collapse, but I'm also trying to square these numbers with the GOP getting kicked in the teeth over and over again for the last 4 years.  Maybe the change in the Latino vote is beginning to finally show up in Arizona? 

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 11064

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8 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I'm just not sure how you can accept polling that shows a 10 point swing in AZ in the space of a month without a major negative news event for the candidate who is now losing. That's almost you have to throw the entire poll out and start over thing.

I get that Biden trailed Trump pretty consistently by 5 pre debate collapse, but I'm also trying to square these numbers with the GOP getting kicked in the teeth over and over again for the last 4 years.  Maybe the change in the Latino vote is beginning to finally show up in Arizona? 

Well, it's because Trump obviously won the debate with his quick wit and dedication to the facts.
image.png.2b633e2eea82349c21f7a6db696ba38c.png

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Old Freak Nasty

Old Freak Nasty 821

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

More

 

This seems like the absolutely best case scenario if if Trump gets 90% vote share of the undecideds.  A good reminder that even given the trainwreck of his campaign, he can win.  We all need to vote early so election day shenanigans cannot happen.  People turned away, a shooting at a voting location early in the day that scares urban voters from standing in long lines, etc.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18324

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Makes no sense. At all 

To be fair, people voting for Trump makes no sense at all. Yet millions and millions and millions of people have and will. So it doesn't need to make sense unfortunately. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Red Five

Red Five 41738

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Posted

Hey, remember all the polling from a year or so ago, that said that if Trump were to be convicted of a felony (or, say, 34 of them), that he would immediately lose so much support as to make him not even a viable candidate? I forget the exact numbers, but it was something like 10-15% of his supporters saying they would no longer vote for him. 

Guess that was all full of shit. 

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Js1

Js1 87185

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Posted
1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

To be fair, people voting for Trump makes no sense at all. Yet millions and millions and millions of people have and will. So it doesn't need to make sense unfortunately. 

Nothing has happened at all to flip a state race 10 points in Trump’s favor in AZ or 5 points in NC

And no, I don’t believe that Slack’s unfounded Turning Point rumor flipped the polls 10 points in Trump’s favor 

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Bullneck

Bullneck 19528

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation - topline and (Hispanic numbers)

PRES - Trump 50, Harris 44 (Harris 49-43 with Hispanics)
Senate - Cruz 48, Allred 45 (Allred 50-39 with Hispanics)

nelsonhaha.gif

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

To be fair, people voting for Trump makes no sense at all. Yet millions and millions and millions of people have and will. So it doesn't need to make sense unfortunately. 

C'mon guys, I'm trying to get some work done today

Edited by Bullneck
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bluto

bluto 4997

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Question about the Hispanic vote that may or may not be a thing. What is the greatest factor in the significant Trump support in Texas? Machismo culture that's attracted to Trump specifically, fuck you, got mine or highly religious group of people voting against abortion? 

It’s absolutely 100% a thing, the 16->20 vote shift in the valley proved that in an alarming way. Dem party at large has zero idea how much so many Hispanic US citizens really don’t like* ‘the illegals’… throw on the machismo and abortion. 

*”don’t like” is probably too mild 

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Red Five

Red Five 41738

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8 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Like a million other things, this should have ended their campaign. Right then and there. They terrorized a group of people for no reason, to the extent that the town is dealing with bomb threats at schools and hospitals. 

I know we're the frog in the pot and everything, but fucking shit people. 

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28930

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Posted
2 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

I legitimately don't understand how polling is at all scientific or representative of what is happening. Nobody is answering fucking polls.

Yeah, they’re not really informative. They don’t affect me, there’s nothing I can do about them. There’s only one poll that’s going to matter. I’ll cast my vote in that one. I’ll be concerned until the final result is announced. Everything else is just noise.

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