2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Here's the deal: If Kamala can get over 50% of the popular vote, she's probably going to win.

Does anyone really think she isn't going to get over 50% of the popular vote?

I tell myself this so I don't obsess about the election.

Serenity now.

I could agree at 52%. 50% feels too low in today's America. 

[David Dennison 19542]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I could agree at 52%. 50% feels too low in today's America. 

It assumes The Donald doesn't break 47%, which he hasn't in his previous two campaigns.

[nbmishoid 989]

16 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 

My '62 Scout is rust-free.  Probably because it's been in CA since 1966 at the latest, and perhaps since new.  

I can trace the ownership to the 2nd owner. 

Mine had spent its first 4 years on Alyeska pipeline.  That it survived at all is a testament.  It could climb a wall in 1st gear.

[Red Five 41738]

She probably needs to win the popular vote by at least 4% for any of us to be comfortable. Think about how nuts that is in an election where, what, 150 million people will be voting? 

[David Dennison 19542]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

She probably needs to win the popular vote by at least 4% for any of us to be comfortable. Think about how nuts that is in an election where, what, 150 million people will be voting? 

It's only nuts because we insist on remaining backward.

 

[chainsaw 10292]

These cross tabs are interesting.

713 Respondents:

413 Whites vs. 149 Hispanic + 114 Other

(Arizona is 52% nonhispanic white, 32.5% hispanic, which would mean a representative sample should have had 357 whites and 231 hispanics, although it's probably safe to assume that hispanic residents are less likely to be registered voters than whites)

209 registered Dems vs. 249 registered GOP vs. 255 independents (AZ SOS reports 221,272 Dems and 216,913 GOP as of July 2024, with 336,343 being something else)

Lake is only +2 with whites compared to +14 for Trump.

These numbers basically tell me that unaffiliated voters hate Lake but like Trump. Independents were underrepresented (not 324 but 255), Republicans were overrepresented (not 192 but 249), and Democrats were slightly overrepresented (not 196 but 209).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/23/us/elections/times-siena-arizona-crosstabs.html

If I had to guess, Siena is assuming these "independents" are probably republicans in denial and built that assumption into the decision to have 57 more republicans in the sample than the latest AZ SOS breakdown would suggest there should be.

The self-identified independent respondents in this poll "strongly disapprove" of Biden's job at 46% (republicans say 90%, dems say 5% with 50% strongly approving Biden, the topline for the 610 respondents was 49% strongly disapproving Biden's performance)

Trump had -2 favorability among the 610 respondents, where Kamala had -7

More:

19% of the 610 respondents said Abortion should be mostly illegal, and an additional 9% said it should be always illegal.

35% of the 610 respondents said they oppose the Abortion rights referendum.

A large share (23%) of the 610 respondents who identified as "Independent" had household incomes of $200k or more, which I think is still a lot of money for AZ. Another 28% of them had household incomes between $100k and $200k. So, over half of these "Independents" are well over the state's median household income of 77k. I find that anomalous.

 

 

 

[Born to Run 6601]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I mean....yes it is.  It's just a very, very, very stupid, short-sighted, peak-leopards-eating-faces thing.

My idiot painter would vote for Trump if he could.  I has to ask him to not wear Trump shit on my jobsites.  Trump would love to deport his ass. 

The only issue I can see him aligning with Trump on is guns. Dude loves shooting his AR at the ranching.

It's nuts.

[RDCanecutter 26893]

3 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

 

WITH ALL THE IMMIGRANTS WE COULDN'T TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN REAL GEORGIA AND FAKE FOREIGN GEORGIA. SAD.

[Red Five 41738]

5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It's only nuts because we insist on remaining backward.

 

Like a football game where points don't matter. Only the number of field goals or something.

ULM 1, Texas 0. Better luck next time Texas.

[Ted Lange 16413]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation - topline and (Hispanic numbers)

PRES - Trump 50, Harris 44 (Harris 49-43 with Hispanics)
Senate - Cruz 48, Allred 45 (Allred 50-39 with Hispanics)

[Brisketexan 106899]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

Hey, remember all the polling from a year or so ago, that said that if Trump were to be convicted of a felony (or, say, 34 of them), that he would immediately lose so much support as to make him not even a viable candidate? I forget the exact numbers, but it was something like 10-15% of his supporters saying they would no longer vote for him. 

Guess that was all full of shit. 

To be fair, at the time, most of us around here correctly observed that was bullshit, because we have long-understood that we are dealing with a cult.

"There's nothing Trump can do to lose their support" isn't hyperbole, it is a universal law, as rigid as the law of gravity.  Trump will lose their support the moment he dies, and not a second sooner than that.

Oh, and he apparently said that if he loses this race, he won't run in 2028?  That's bullshit.  If he loses (and even if he wins, because fuck the Constitution), he will run in 2028.  And if he loses then, he will run in 2032.  And 2036 (because he is fucking NEVER going to die).

[Beantown Express 2.0 6597]

I’ve got a dumb poll question.  MSNBC was showing a poll (not sure which one) and it had Trump winning Males by like 10 points but Harris was winning the female vote by 21 points.  Assuming both males and females vote at the same rate or both make up a 50/50 split of the country, wouldn’t that mean Harris will destroy Trump if women vote that way?  I suck at math but if this data point is true within a poll then the poll itself makes no sense unless they have way more males voting than females in the election. 

[Gatorubet 30720]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/23/democratic-super-pac-ads-harris-trump-00180458

I am unable to cut and paste the politico article for your convenience. My apologies.   It basically points out the change in tactics from demonizing Trump and running negative ads about that shit stain, to a strategy that instead relates positive information about Harris and seeks to make her likable and trustworthy.   

The article correctly notes that everyone has already made up their mind about Trump - and telling Trump voters about the terrible things Trump has done (or do) does not move the needle. With the exception of 2016, the best liked candidate usually wins the presidential election.   Trump and Clinton had such high negatives on both sides that 2026 is somewhat of an outlier.

I think this is absolutely the correct strategy. If we can get people comfortable with President Harris, then we are well on our way to the result we want.

[chainsaw 10292]

Just now, Gatorubet said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/23/democratic-super-pac-ads-harris-trump-00180458

I am unable to cut and paste the politico article for your convenience. My apologies.   It basically points out the change in tactics from demonizing Trump and running negative ads about that shit stain, to a strategy that instead relates positive information about Harris and seeks to make her likable and trustworthy.   

The article correctly notes that everyone has already made up their mind about Trump - and telling Trump voters about the terrible things Trump has done (or do) does not move the needle. With the exception of 2016, the best liked candidate usually wins the presidential election.   Trump and Clinton had such high negatives on both sides that 2026 is somewhat of an outlier.

I think this is absolutely the correct strategy. If we can get people comfortable with President Harris, then we are well on our way to the result we want.

She has surrogates and others who can cover that front. I agree that anything coming from her campaign should be about voters and not the candidates. That came through very clear in the debate.

[Ted Lange 16413]

6 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Assuming both males and females vote at the same rate or both make up a 50/50 split of the country

It was 52/48 women in the last presidential election

[Zonahorn 8079]

Republican stronghold Tucson is quite the take

[jimmyjazz 47205]

6 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I’ve got a dumb poll question.  MSNBC was showing a poll (not sure which one) and it had Trump winning Males by like 10 points but Harris was winning the female vote by 21 points.  Assuming both males and females vote at the same rate or both make up a 50/50 split of the country, wouldn’t that mean Harris will destroy Trump if women vote that way?  I suck at math but if this data point is true within a poll then the poll itself makes no sense unless they have way more males voting than females in the election. 

Assuming no 3rd party/candidate votes, that would be 55/45 Trump (males) and 60.5/39.5 Harris (females).  Net is 0.5*(45+60.5) = 52.75 for Harris, 47.25 for Trump, or a 5.5 margin for Harris.

(If I did the math right.)

[Bozo_Casanova 26851]

2 hours ago, hookem2010 said:

Question about the Hispanic vote that may or may not be a thing. What is the greatest factor in the significant Trump support in Texas? Machismo culture that's attracted to Trump specifically, fuck you, got mine or highly religious group of people voting against abortion? 

The greatest factor is that they are a lot like whites. Show me a Hispanic voter who otherwise has the socio-demographic markers associated with Republican voters - where they live, education, money, religion, immigration status, etc, and I'll show you a Republican voter. Likewise the ones who vote Democratic. 

Edited September 23 by Bozo_Casanova

[Goredho 17656]

18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

To be fair, at the time, most of us around here correctly observed that was bullshit, because we have long-understood that we are dealing with a cult.

"There's nothing Trump can do to lose their support" isn't hyperbole, it is a universal law, as rigid as the law of gravity.  Trump will lose their support the moment he dies, and not a second sooner than that.

Oh, and he apparently said that if he loses this race, he won't run in 2028?  That's bullshit.  If he loses (and even if he wins, because fuck the Constitution), he will run in 2028.  And if he loses then, he will run in 2032.  And 2036 (because he is fucking NEVER going to die).

I am optimistic because there's an inverse to Trump's somewhat accurate belief that he "could shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose a vote".  It's that he apparently can be shot on 5th avenue and not gain a vote, either.  There does not appear to be that many people who were not already going to vote for Trump that are open to voting for him under any circumstances given a non-vegetative alternative

Edited September 23 by Goredho

[Brisketexan 106899]

1 minute ago, Goredho said:

I am optimistic because there's an inverse to Trump's somewhat accurate belief that he "could shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose a vote".  It's that he apparently can be shot on 5th avenue and not gain a vote, either.

It truly may well be the case that Trump exists in this bizarre physical universe where his floor and his ceiling are exactly the same number.

All prior American political conventional wisdom is right out the window.  Trump and Trumpism are sui generis - never before seen, and never to be duplicated.   But incredibly toxic and dangerous for each second that they exist.

[chainsaw 10292]

Pundits need to really internalize the fact that there's no such thing as a "final straw" when you're dealing with racism and people who tolerate racism.

They fucking literally seceded from the union because they loved slavery that much. All through reconstruction, segregation, the civil rights movement, they have been kicking and screaming and resisting each and every effort ever made to improve the quality of life for people they perceive as non-white.

Nothing else matters, as long as they have their precious White Supremacy. That's why there will never be a "final straw" for these voters.

[Js1 87185]

15 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/23/democratic-super-pac-ads-harris-trump-00180458

I am unable to cut and paste the politico article for your convenience. My apologies.   It basically points out the change in tactics from demonizing Trump and running negative ads about that shit stain, to a strategy that instead relates positive information about Harris and seeks to make her likable and trustworthy.   

The article correctly notes that everyone has already made up their mind about Trump - and telling Trump voters about the terrible things Trump has done (or do) does not move the needle. With the exception of 2016, the best liked candidate usually wins the presidential election.   Trump and Clinton had such high negatives on both sides that 2026 is somewhat of an outlier.

I think this is absolutely the correct strategy. If we can get people comfortable with President Harris, then we are well on our way to the result we want.

Yeah, there was something a while back that voters responded more favorably to positive ads / stories about Kamala than just going negative on Trump. 

And you are right - the better liked candidate usually wins, 2016 being a huge outlier because Clinton was just HATED and she bottomed out with WWC voters from the 20+ year onslaught of negative stories about her.  The offset of the bottoming out with WWC voters is college educated voters, ESPECIALLY women with degrees, have abandoned the GOP and they vote.

[Js1 87185]

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

Heard an interesting point regarding Harris and energy. She's been told by Silicon Valley types that American needs to increase it's electricity generation because of AI needs. Look at MSFT effectively buying Three Mile Island for their own exclusive use this past week. We don't need incremental electricity generation but order of magnitude increases.

Harris is stuck that the right doesn't believe her, or want to believe her, when she says that she won't ban fracking or other extraction methods. But she has to be careful about not pissing off the progressive side that doesn't want to recognize that we just can't go with more solar panels and wind farms.

[Dahobbs 18324]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Heard an interesting point regarding Harris and energy. She's been told by Silicon Valley types that American needs to increase it's electricity generation because of AI needs. Look at MSFT effectively buying Three Mile Island for their own exclusive use this past week. We don't need incremental electricity generation but order of magnitude increases.

Harris is stuck that the right doesn't believe her, or want to believe her, when she says that she won't ban fracking or other extraction methods. But she has to be careful about not pissing off the progressive side that doesn't want to recognize that we just can't go with more solar panels and wind farms.

For the most part, we actually can. And that is what is actually happening. 80% of new generation last year and this year will be renewable. What we can't do is shut off all the gas plants overnight (or even in 15 years). They are still needed, but at a much smaller percentage of the overall grid. 

[Pancho 46312]

[Js1 87185]

[mdmost 44049]

Kremlin Stein needs to fuck right off

[chainsaw 10292]

Vance is prepping for the debate with Tom Emmer (R-MN) standing in for Walz.

Spoiler

Quote

Abortion

Emmer is anti-abortion.[62] He has an A+ rating from Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, and opposes the use of taxpayer dollars for abortion purposes.[63]
BPA

In 2009, Emmer voted against legislation to prohibit sales of any children's product containing Bisphenol-A (except for used children's products).[64][65] He said he voted against the law because of fear of "increased costs." "As well-intentioned as people may be," he said, "they don't think about what this vote means five steps down the line".[66]
Bullying

During an October 9, 2010, televised debate, Emmer said he would oppose legislation to combat school bullying against gay and lesbian young people. Emmer, who voted against anti-bullying legislation as a state lawmaker, said that teachers are most responsible for halting bullies, but suggested that the threat of lawsuits keeps them from doing so. "I don't think we need more laws; I think we need more understanding," he said.[67]
Climate and environment

As a state representative, in 2007 Emmer called climate science "Al Gore's climate porn", referring to Gore's documentary An Inconvenient Truth.[68]

Emmer co-sponsored a 2022 nonbinding resolution in support of domestic oil and gas production, which did not pass. The proposal urged the House to "support the safe and responsible development of its energy resources via drilling".[69]

The environmental advocacy League of Conservation Voters has given Emmer a lifetime score of 5%, the lowest in Minnesota's congressional delegation. Recent votes improved his 2021 score to 21%, compared to the U.S. House average of 57%.[70]
Copper nickel mining in northern Minnesota

In 2018, Emmer supported two copper nickel mines in the Superior National Forest.[71] As of 2019, they were planned by Polymet, which is owned by Switzerland-based mining giant Glencore, and Twin Metals, which is owned by Antofagasta, a Chilean mining company controlled by the Luksics, one of Chile's wealthiest families.[72]

When the Department of Interior did not list copper or nickel as two of 35 "critical minerals" essential to national security in 2018, Emmer released a press release of a letter he wrote to Department of Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke requesting that copper and nickel be included.[73]

Emmer and Representative Pete Stauber both stood beside Assistant Secretary of the Interior Joseph Balash as he signed leases permitting Twin Metals to explore a large area of national forest land nine miles southeast of Ely for copper-nickel reserves on May 15, 2019. The Obama administration had mothballed the lease renewal pending an environmental review, but Twin Metals is now in possession of a 10-year lease to explore the area, with a view toward opening a mine there.[74]
Cryptocurrency and digital assets

Tom Emmer is an outspoken proponent of cryptocurrency and digital assets.[75] He introduced the bipartisan Securities Clarity Act in an effort to establish regulatory clarity for digital assets.[76] In March 2023, after the collapse of crypto-friendly Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank, he cosigned a bipartisan letter to FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg inquiring about the alleged weaponization of banking instability to purge legal crypto companies from the banking system.[77]

In June 2023, Emmer cosponsored the SEC Stabilization Act, which would effectively fire U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Gary Gensler.[78] The legislation was not considered likely to win Congressional approval. It was introduced a week after the SEC sued Coinbase and Binance, claiming they failed to register as a national securities exchange, broker, and clearing agency.[79]

After endorsing Donald Trump for president in 2024, Emmer said, "If the second Trump administration takes place, [the] president will be a lot more friendly to the crypto industry". Industry advocates say their efforts to develop regulations are nonpartisan.[80]
Drunk driving

In 2009, Emmer sponsored a bill that would shorten the period of license revocation for driving under the influence and for refusing to take a field sobriety test. Additionally, though "suspected drunken drivers [currently] face revocation before they go to court," Emmer's bill would have delayed revocations until after conviction.[81] Supporters of Emmer's bill said "it's needed because pre-conviction revocations penalize drivers before proving they're guilty."[82] Mothers Against Drunk Driving and the head of the Minnesota DWI task force opposed the legislation[81] because it would allow arrested drivers to continue to drive during the time between their arrest and hearing.[83]

Emmer's own history became an issue in relation to his bill.[84] At age 20, Emmer received a driving under the influence-related ticket. In 1991, at age 30, he pleaded guilty to careless driving while two charges for DWI and a license-plate violation were dropped.[81] Emmer denied that his own drunk driving and legal consequences played a part in the bill, stating, "We all come to the Legislature with life experiences, but it has nothing to do with this bill."[81] Emmer also said that his sentence in 1981 should have been harsher, because in that case he "probably wouldn't have taken the second chance" that led to his subsequent arrests and guilty plea in 1991.[85]

On May 13, 2010, Emmer was one of three legislators not to vote on a bill that would have provided such tougher penalties for drunk drivers. He said he missed the vote when a previously scheduled lunch ran long, and that he had "no idea" how he would have voted on the bill, but that he "assume[d]" he would have supported it.[86]
"Fire Pelosi" machine gun video

In an October 2022 CBS News television interview, Emmer was challenged for posting a video on Twitter that showed him firing a fully automatic machine gun with the caption "#FIREPELOSI".[87] As chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), Emmer led 2022 election efforts to win a majority and replace House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The post occurred just days before the home invasion and attack on Pelosi's husband in California.
Healthcare

Emmer favors repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). After supporting the March 2017 version of the American Health Care Act (a bill to repeal the ACA), he voted for it on May 4, 2017, before it had been scored by the Congressional Budget Office to determine its economic impact.
Minimum wage

In 2005, as a state representative, Emmer introduced an amendment that would have eliminated Minnesota's minimum wage law.[88]
Immigration

Emmer supported President Donald Trump's 2017 executive order to temporarily curtail immigration from seven predominantly Muslim countries until better screening methods are devised, saying, "Everybody needs to take a deep breath. There is no litmus test based on religion. The administration and I understand it has — takes the seven countries identified by the Obama administration, not this administration, as the most dangerous countries when it comes to potential terrorists."[89]
Israel

Emmer voted to provide Israel with support following the 2023 Hamas attack on Israel.[90][91]
Pharmacy conscience clause

Emmer has supported "conscience clause" legislation that would allow pharmacists to refuse to dispense contraception on the basis of "ethical, moral or legal grounds as long as the pharmacist notifies their employer in advance and the employer can ensure a patient has timely access to the drug or device".[92]
Same-sex marriage

Emmer supported a state constitutional amendment banning civil recognition of same-sex marriage or its legal equivalent, stating, "I believe marriage is the union between one man and one woman."[93] In March 2007, Emmer introduced HF 1847, an amendment to the Minnesota Constitution "recognizing as marriage or its legal equivalent only a union between one man and one woman."[94] Voters later rejected 2012 Minnesota Amendment 1.

Emmer was among 47 Republican Representatives who voted in favor of the Respect for Marriage Act, which codified the right to same-sex marriage in federal law.[95][96]
Nullification

In 2010 Emmer sponsored an amendment to the Minnesota Constitution that would allow the state to nullify federal laws.[97]
Taxes

Emmer strongly opposes tax increases. He has also proposed gradually reducing the state corporate tax, with the eventual goal of repealing it altogether.[98]
Texas v. Pennsylvania

In December 2020, Emmer was one of 126 Republican members of the House of Representatives to sign an amicus brief in support of Texas v. Pennsylvania, a lawsuit filed at the United States Supreme Court contesting the results of the 2020 presidential election, in which Joe Biden defeated incumbent Donald Trump.[99] The Supreme Court declined to hear the case on the basis that Texas lacked standing under Article III of the Constitution to challenge the results of an election held by another state.[100][101][102]

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi issued a statement that called signing the amicus brief an act of "election subversion." She also reprimanded Emmer and the other House members who supported the lawsuit: "The 126 Republican Members that signed onto this lawsuit brought dishonor to the House. Instead of upholding their oath to support and defend the Constitution, they chose to subvert the Constitution and undermine public trust in our sacred democratic institutions."[103][104]
Trump felony conviction

When former president Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, Emmer said, "Democrats just pulled off the biggest sham in U.S. history".[105][106] Emmer serves as Trump's Minnesota campaign chair.[107] He joined other Republican leaders in condemning Trump's conviction[108] and appeared with other Republican leaders, promising "to use House oversight powers and other measures to target jurisdictions pursuing prosecutions of the former president."[109]
"Tip credit"

On July 5, 2010, after visiting a restaurant in St. Paul, Emmer was asked during a press conference if he supported a tip credit, the policy of allowing businesses to subtract tips from a server's hourly wage. His response was "Yes... if you didn't have a minimum wage law", adding, "somebody could be taking home well over one hundred thousand dollars as a server" while the restaurant owner could be making much less.[110][111]

One week after that press conference, Emmer announced a proposal that would exempt the first $20,000 a server makes in tips from state taxes.[112] At the same press conference a protester dumped $20 in pennies on Emmer's lap.[113]
Vote to defund vice president
On November 8, 2023, Emmer joined 100 other Republicans voting in favor of an amendment to a large appropriations bill that would prohibit funding for the Office of Vice President Kamala Harris.

 

It's a bold strategy.

[Js1 87185]

31 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Republican stronghold Tucson is quite the take

Maricopa was D+2 in the AZ Gov race and Pima was D+21 in a race Hobbs won. 

Therefore, D+3 Pima...

[Bateshorn 9991]

28 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Pundits need to really internalize the fact that there's no such thing as a "final straw" when you're dealing with racism and people who tolerate racism.

They fucking literally seceded from the union because they loved slavery that much. All through reconstruction, segregation, the civil rights movement, they have been kicking and screaming and resisting each and every effort ever made to improve the quality of life for people they perceive as non-white.

Nothing else matters, as long as they have their precious White Supremacy. That's why there will never be a "final straw" for these voters.

Quote

“If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.”--LBJ

 

[elfenix 34751]

On 9/20/2024 at 4:41 AM, SydneyCarton said:

 

the best time to drop it would have been 4 years ago before he was elected to lt gov

Ftfy

[Js1 87185]

State senator from Omaha - fuck you, no

 

 

[Tuco 5093]

For the most part, we actually can. And that is what is actually happening. 80% of new generation last year and this year will be renewable. What we can't do is shut off all the gas plants overnight (or even in 15 years). They are still needed, but at a much smaller percentage of the overall grid. 

We can’t and still meet the power demand the tech industry is projecting as they race towards building all the data centers they are planning to build. Something has to give. The techs won’t build everything they have planned. But, it is likely it will still drive an increase in fossil fuel usage.

[SydneyCarton 49504]

45 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Heard an interesting point regarding Harris and energy. She's been told by Silicon Valley types that American needs to increase it's electricity generation because of AI needs. Look at MSFT effectively buying Three Mile Island for their own exclusive use this past week. We don't need incremental electricity generation but order of magnitude increases.

Harris is stuck that the right doesn't believe her, or want to believe her, when she says that she won't ban fracking or other extraction methods. But she has to be careful about not pissing off the progressive side that doesn't want to recognize that we just can't go with more solar panels and wind farms.

 

3 minutes ago, Tuco said:

We can’t and still meet the power demand the tech industry is projecting as they race towards building all the data centers they are planning to build. Something has to give. The techs won’t build everything they have planned. But, it is likely it will still drive an increase in fossil fuel usage.

When people get their shit together and realize that nuclear power plants are fucking awesome and can solve a lot of fucking problems we have for energy, we'll be way better off. If that ever happens, who the fuck knows. 

[Tuco 5093]

When people get their shit together and realize that nuclear power plants are fucking awesome and can solve a lot of fucking problems we have for energy, we'll be way better off. If that ever happens, who the fuck knows. 

Nuke builds on a much slower pace than data centers. It’s faster when there is an existing site and license, but getting 3 Mile Island Unit 1 (not unit 2) back up by 2028 seems optimistic to me.

[BrickHorn 18447]

13 minutes ago, Tuco said:

We can’t and still meet the power demand the tech industry is projecting as they race towards building all the data centers they are planning to build. Something has to give. The techs won’t build everything they have planned. But, it is likely it will still drive an increase in fossil fuel usage.

Q: What is even better than replacing skilled jobs with robots? 

A: Replacing skilled jobs with robots that drain our energy resources and accelerate the climate crisis. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[Js1 87185]

It is so easy to just make up swing state polls -

Harris +1 / tie / Trump +1, mix and match which state gets which result 

Redfield & Winton (GOP-lean)

AZ - tied (Gallego +5)
FL - Trump +5 (Scott +4)
GA - Trump +2
Michigan - Harris +1 (Slotkin +9)
Minnesota - Harris +6 (Klobuchar +8 lololol, she is not going to do worse than Slotkin and Rosen)
Nevada - tied (Rosen +9)
NC - Trump +1
PA - tied (Casey +6)
WI - tied (Baldwin +5)

[Kyrie Eleison 9312]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

 

 

in related news...

 

[SydneyCarton 49504]

14 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Nuke builds on a much slower pace than data centers. It’s faster when there is an existing site and license, but getting 3 Mile Island Unit 1 (not unit 2) back up by 2028 seems optimistic to me.

I'm not saying it's not an investment. In time, resources, technology. BUt it's an investment we need to make looking 50 years from now, now 5-10 years from now. 

Similar with desalinisation plants as well, imo. 

Edited September 23 by SydneyCarton

[Gatorubet 30720]

No second debate? Well, of course not.   Kamala broke him. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

34 minutes ago, Js1 said:

State senator from Omaha - fuck you, no

 

 

This man is a GOP hero for standing up to Trump and those who want to put their fingers on the scale to help Trump secure a victory. I agree that it's Nebraska's choice to make but not in the weeks leading up to the election.

I imagine the death threats are already being made to his office.

[DigglerontheHoof 21551]

2 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

No second debate? Well, of course not.   Kamala broke him. 

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20923]

This commercial is fucking gold.
 

 

 

[Ghost of LL 15698]

I had dinner over the weekend with my previously referenced "source close to the campaign," and a few nuggets are worth sharing here:

Arizona: They're very confident about Arizona.  I mean, they're so confident about Arizona that I was somewhat shocked.  I mean, I feel good about Arizona.  But what I heard was "we're going to win Arizona by 1-2 points."

Georgia: They're maybe a little less confident about Georgia.  But that was couched in terms of "we really like where we stand right now."  

Michigan: We're fine.

Nevada: They're unequivocal on Nevada: "we're going to win Nevada by 2-2.5 points."

North Carolina: This one is really harder to tell, because they don't have any information from after the whole Mark Robinson flame-out.  It's pretty clear to them that the likes of Kari Lake and Mark Robinson are a bit of a drag on Trump.  And they're really trying to target people who have decided they're not going to vote for Lake/Robinson but who are still planning to vote for Trump.  Who are those people?  I don't exactly know, but it's obviously a focus of the Harris campaign's data people.

Texas: I think the term "extreme skepticism" is the only way to describe their feelings with respect to Texas.  My friend conceded that there are some numbers that look good-ish for Allred.  But damn--we've all been through this drill before.  There's just an extreme unwillingness to divert resources at any level to Texas, no matter what any poll is currently saying.

Pennsylvania: I take this one out of alphabetical order because that's where the game is.  My friend gamely tried to obfuscate on the point, but quickly conceded that Pennsylvania is the tipping-point state.  And they're feeling ok about Pennsylvania, but they have a big problem with Black men.  How big a problem I can't exactly say.  But it's causing some serious concern.  

I asked about whence the problem derives, and he said two things: 1) Kamala's perceived record as a prosecutor (and alleged prosecutions of small-time marijuana offenses) and 2) misogyny (and particularly as against a Black woman).  On the upside, the campaign has identified the issue and is doing a whole lot to address it.  That State Commonwealth is being absolutely blanketed with campaign surrogates talking directly to that community to shore up those numbers.

And I'm going to observe here--and this was my observation, and not my friend's (though it was an observation with which he agreed)--that this is where the Harris campaign's superiority in resources shows.  They have something like twice as many field offices as the Trump campaign and RNC have.  We spent a good deal of time just laughing at how Lara Trump is siphoning off money from the RNC and killing their organizing and down-ballot support.  So the Trump campaign isn't really able to go out and play offense and try to exploit the problems Harris is having with that (or any other) demographic.  So from that standpoint, it's kind of the opposite of 2016.

[South Austin 53227]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

And they're feeling ok about Pennsylvania, but they have a big problem with Black men.  

Why does your friend have a problem with Black men?  Is it the rap music?

[Hank Kingsley 21785]

Fuck Silicone Valley, fuck AI, fuck tech bros. 

I hope everything they are "building" for profit right now fails spectacularly. 

Assuming we can end the Trump era, the next focus needs to be bringing down these AI assholes. 

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Fuck Silicone Valley,

That's San Fernando Valley.

[kevwun 16438]

Yeah, I hope someone who is part of her team knows that AI is a scam and helps shape her policy about it.