2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[C-Man 27012]

18 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

That's a metaphorical dam breaking. When people overcome that mental barrier, the supporters become vocal and the fencesitters become supporters.

She's come a long way in her journey. She's never voted for Trump but had no real issues with him up until she saw his reaction/inaction with COVID. She ran her dad's dental practice (he has since retired) and was appalled at the shit he was doing/saying during the pandemic as people were dying and she was trying to safely restart their business. We started our nightly 2-mile walks during the initial shutdown and we'd talk politics. Did I make sure and hit the DOTARD highlights/lowlights? You're damn sure I did -- but she did her own investigating and voted for Biden in '20 and can't wait to vote for Kamala and Colin Allred in the coming weeks.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

3 minutes ago, linux said:

Can you link to this? is it 3% higher for voter registration? aka 1,000 vs 1,030 or is it 3.1 higher in total voting universe? 

I don't really understand the question, but I think Nate was saying that by registration, in 2020 it was R+3 or something and now it is R+6.1.  That is, for every 1000 D registrations, there was 1030 Rs in 2020 and now 1061 Rs.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

 

[linux 1659]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I don't really understand the question, but I think Nate was saying that by registration, in 2020 it was R+3 or something and now it is R+6.1.  That is, for every 1000 D registrations, there was 1030 Rs in 2020 and now 1061 Rs.

I still think that is manageable, I was worrying about a large migration moving the whole universe numbers by 3% which would be insurmountable.

NVM saw the tweet that does look bad.

Edited September 24 by linux

[Js1 85070]

"Other" is the second largest voter group, as of July 2024.  (November 2020 in parenthesis)

GOP - 35.41 (35.24)
Dem - 29.1 (32.2)
Independent - 33.95 (31.67)

Edited September 24 by Js1

[Pancho 44393]

This would be depressing 

 

[Js1 85070]

 

 

[Foosters 17698]

10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Nate Cohn tweeted this morning that AZ by voter registration is 3.1 points more red than in 2020.  Hard to be confident that could be overcome.

Independents make up 33% of AZ RVs.

The numbers he's citing come from before the switch to Harris.

2022 was R+8 and we see how well that went for the GOP.

[Pescado_Rojo 19329]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Okay sure but Trump tripled his margin in FL between 2016 and 2020. I think people Need to understand there was a lot of Covid related migration.

FL/TX/MT could be redder than 2020 and CA/NY/CO/WA could be bluer than 2020 based on where it seems people are moving from and to. 

Obviously the best thing would be to flip Texas, but maybe the second best thing would be for Texas to become a Republican vote sink. If a bunch of blue collar midwestern types move here to work in the oil patch or related industries, it might relieve some pressure from the blue wall states, and swing states like Pennsylvania and Ohio.   

[Js1 85070]

6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

This would be depressing 

 

If it is 51-49 (which looks likely unless DMP, Allred or Tester pull out a miracle), you offer Lisa Murkowski literally anything in the world to go independent and caucus with the Dems.  Natural resources chair, drill ANWR, peg Tim Walz every morning on the Senate floor - give it to her. 

She has no love for the GOP or Trump and she'd probably have just as good a chance her next election running as an independent with Dem backing.  Aka, we won't put up a candidate against you and you have our backing in the Tundra primary and general. 

She only won in 2022 by 7.4 after the Dem was eliminated.  If you gave her the Dems' total in the first round, she would have won without going to RCV.  And Alaska just keeps creeping a tiny bit bluer. 

Edited September 24 by Js1

[Bateshorn 9896]

16 minutes ago, locodos said:

If only there were some tried and true way to get a certain cohort to vote...  Georgia got any ideas?

I recommend watching past the 1 minute mark.... vote, vote, vote, stretch, vote...

[Zonahorn 8079]

9 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

It doesn’t matter

[chainsaw 9834]

2 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Independents make up 33% of AZ RVs.

The numbers he's citing come from before the switch to Harris.

2022 was R+8 and we see how well that went for the GOP.

I'd like to know where Cohn is getting his numbers

 

[linux 1659]

 

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If it is 51-49 (which looks likely unless DMP, Allred or Tester pull out a miracle), you offer Lisa Murkowski literally anything in the world to go independent and caucus with the Dems.  Natural resources chair, drill ANWR, peg Tim Walz every morning on the Senate floor - give it to her. 

She has no love for the GOP or Trump and she'd probably have just as good a chance her next election running as an independent with Dem backing.  Aka, we won't put up a candidate against you and you have our backing in the Tundra primary and general. 

 

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

 

So now that means the blue wall is life, Omaha at +7 might as well be safe.

As for the Senate I will gladly take that faustain bargain. But still feel confident too that 150 year record exists for a reason.

[Js1 85070]

1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

I'd like to know where Cohn is getting his numbers

 

From what I posted, which is on the official AZ site, from July 2024.  GOP has a +6.31 advantage, but independents are 33.95% of registered voters

GOP was +4.01 with independents at 33.89 in 2022
GOP was +3.04 with independents at 31.67 in 2020

I would not be that surprised if more young voters are registered as independent, because we've seen that in other state.  They are more likely to vote Dem, but less likely to pick a party.  

Arizona should release another update next month

[linux 1659]

Just now, Js1 said:

From what I posted, which is on the official AZ site, from July 2024.  GOP has a +6.31 advantage, but independents are 33.95% of registered voters

GOP was +4.01 with independents at 33.89 in 2022
GOP was +3.04 with independents at 31.67 in 2020

I would not be that surprised if more young voters are registered as independent, because we've seen that in other state.  They are more likely to vote Dem, but less likely to pick a party.  

Arizona should release another update next month

It is not meant as me being an asshole but gross numbers are so much easier at least for me I can do that them math in my head.

It seems that in terms of the whole electoral universe it all just boils down to Independents and who they pick.

[Js1 85070]

Just now, linux said:

It is not meant as me being an asshole but gross numbers are so much easier at least for me I can do that them math in my head.

 

No I get it.  And this is public data, including historic data

https://azsos.gov/elections/election-information/voter-registration-statistics

[Zonahorn 8079]

The narrative that Harris and the Democratic party are slipping among youth or black voters is media driven bullshit.

[4th&Five 41457]

[Js1 85070]

12 minutes ago, linux said:

It seems that in terms of the whole electoral universe it all just boils down to Independents and who they pick.

Also, duh

Biden won them 53-44 and that's why he won AZ.  NYT/Siena has Harris winning them 49-40 and trailing by 5 in this poll, which doesn't smell right (to me).  The Siena poll has her doing worse with Dems (Biden +94, Harris +84) and Trump doing better with GOP (Trump+81, Trump +87 this time) 

[Zonahorn 8079]

15 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

The narrative that Harris and the Democratic party are slipping among youth or black voters is media driven bullshit.

 

[wildcat09 29203]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Also, duh

Biden won them 53-44 and that's why he won AZ.  NYT/Siena has Harris winning them 49-40 and trailing by 5 in this poll, which doesn't smell right (to me).  The Siena poll has her doing worse with Dems (Biden +94, Harris +84) and Trump doing better with GOP (Trump+81, Trump +87 this time) 

Yeah, that shit absolutely doesn't pass the smell test. There's tons of evidence that Dems are highly motivated and that many Republicans aren't. 

These guys are just aiming for topline results that feel right to them and if they've gotta fuck with all the underlying assumptions to heavily bias the GOP they'll do it. 

[Js1 85070]

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[hookem2010 2594]

43 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If it is 51-49 (which looks likely unless DMP, Allred or Tester pull out a miracle), you offer Lisa Murkowski literally anything in the world to go independent and caucus with the Dems.  Natural resources chair, drill ANWR, peg Tim Walz every morning on the Senate floor - give it to her. 

She has no love for the GOP or Trump and she'd probably have just as good a chance her next election running as an independent with Dem backing.  Aka, we won't put up a candidate against you and you have our backing in the Tundra primary and general. 

She only won in 2022 by 7.4 after the Dem was eliminated.  If you gave her the Dems' total in the first round, she would have won without going to RCV.  And Alaska just keeps creeping a tiny bit bluer. 

Flip Murkowski by opening up ANWR, turning Alaska more blue, while also warming it up that much faster, bringing in more people, bumping those 3 EVs to 5+, making it that much more important. 

[Js1 85070]

24 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

The narrative that Harris and the Democratic party are slipping among youth or black voters is media driven bullshit.

I have been SCREAMING that the large sample size polls of young voters, black voters and Latino voters don’t show her performing any worse than 2020 and in some cases, better.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

9 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Flip Murkowski by opening up ANWR, turning Alaska more blue, while also warming it up that much faster, bringing in more people, bumping those 3 EVs to 5+, making it that much more important. 

then implement my plan for an aleutian beach condo!

[TexEx15 17454]

 

[Pato del Muerto 52330]

Polling companies have hype men now.

this is the world we chose when we decided that anyone and everyone can access the internet, and worse add content to it. 

Edited September 24 by Pato del Muerto

[wildcat09 29203]

Push that fucker into a volcano.

[Old Freak Nasty 818]

46 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

The narrative that Harris and the Democratic party are slipping among youth or black voters is media driven bullshit.

Is this specific to national polling?  When the same firms conduct swing state polls are they using similar methodology prone to the same under-representation?

This seems to point to an ass kicking which I can't get myself to believe yet.

[Js1 85070]

20 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

Requests are down because more people plan to vote in person. 

[quigley 1526]

15 hours ago, Pancho said:

Would be crazy to lose PA but win Florida 

I'd take the trade all day every day.

FL is growing, 21 EC votes in 1988, now 30. PA 25 to 19 over the same period.

[Zonahorn 8079]

2 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Is this specific to national polling?  When the same firms conduct swing state polls are they using similar methodology prone to the same under-representation?

This seems to point to an ass kicking which I can't get myself to believe yet.

Yes, I've been saying it last year: The only piece of data that looks good for Donald Trump is polling.

[Zonahorn 8079]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Requests are down because more people plan to vote in person. 

Even down from 2020, that's still a 600,000-vote firewall

[4th&Five 41457]

yep, definitely not 2 right in front of him.

 

Edited September 24 by 4th&Five

[SydneyCarton 47810]

3 hours ago, Pancho said:

👀

 

 

I'm not sure Hillary thought Florida was in play in 2016. She sure didn't think the blue wall was in play. Point being I'm not sure I trust the instincts of Florida Democrats any more than I'd trust the Texas democratic leadership. 

2 hours ago, LCHorn said:

#1, I don’t think more money helps Trump anyway.  His cake is baked (you said it on another post and I’ve read it elsewhere-his ceiling is his floor).  
 

#2, the Trump campaign is comparatively small with fewer satellite offices; they pretty have to spend their money on traditional and digital advertising because they aren’t set up to pivot elsewhere.  
 

I’m sure this is over-reading into it, but I’d presume there’s some realistic reasons to spend in Florida (defend abortion rights) and maybe subordinate but also satisfying reasons (Mar-A-Lago tv’s running pro-Dem ads, maybe trying to shape now what a post-DeSantis Florida looks like).  

While I mostly agree that more money won't help trump, that being said, I do think them eliminating the door knocking and get out the vote offices and efforts was a huge fucking error. His support might be backed in, but getting a lot of idiots up and out to vote with a plan is NOT baked in whatsoever, imo. 

[quigley 1526]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

It would take a combo of states - MI + WI + one of PA/GA/NV/AZ

If NC, MI, WI all get called for Harris and Jon Ralston says Harris will win NV in his pre-Election Day prediction post, then you can take that to the bank. 

Has Ralston said this?

[TheStoicPaisano 9904]

It’s an inanimate fucking object!

[4th&Five 41457]

and people say they're weird!

[DigglerontheHoof 21039]

What in the fuck is that idiot talking about?

[quigley 1526]

2 hours ago, Foosters said:

I had a similar conversation with my dad. White man, 70's, O&G background. He recounted 3 conversations he had in the past several weeks with 3 of his oldest friends - all who voted for Trump in both 16 and 20. All 3 are sitting this one out, including the one guy who had previously told him he'd "die before he ever voted for a Democrat." Hilariously, they all told him that they now realize that they have to excise Trumpism from the GOP. LOL, good luck.

Just curious, what do you think was the tipping point for the 3 old dudes not voting for Trump?

[quigley 1526]

1 hour ago, SubliminalHorn said:

So if we have an unsafe election because of magat dipshit traitors, then they won’t certify it?

It'll be blamed on antifa.

[Firemans4Horn 17800]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

 

 

fuck this Pillen guy. Get in loser, we’re going losing. 

[Foosters 17698]

6 minutes ago, quigley said:

Just curious, what do you think was the tipping point for the 3 old dudes not voting for Trump?

Not sure there was a tipping point. More so a slow realization that he's toxic to the national party and aims of the GOP, accompanied by his debate performance and overall cognitive decline. These men weren't MAGA, but were happy to vote for MAGA based on a mix of classic, culture war issues and tax cuts. 2/3 are actually wealthy enough to be concerned about policies impacting the .1%

[Js1 85070]

17 minutes ago, quigley said:

Has Ralston said this?

Ralston does his prediction either the Sunday or Monday before the Election. 

I'm saying if Harris win NC + MI + WI on Election Night AND Saint Jon of Nevada has made his prediction that Harris is going to win NV, you can go to bed knowing she has won even if she hasn't locked up 270 yet bc of PA/GA/AZ/NV.  

I *think* NC, MI, WI can be called on Election Night and PA/GA will have specific trends for Trump or Harris to know who is winning, but NV/AZ can drag for days.  But Saint John isn't wrong when he finishes his prediction - the early vote in Nevada basically tells the entire story for the state. 

[Royalfan5 2348]

1 minute ago, Firemans4Horn said:

fuck this Pillen guy. Get in loser, we’re going losing. 

Last good thing he did was force Billy Sims to fumble in 78. 

[HenryJames 65879]

17 minutes ago, quigley said:

Just curious, what do you think was the tipping point for the 3 old dudes not voting for Trump?

Probably wanted to see their children and grandkids again.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13406]

2 hours ago, Foosters said:

I had a similar conversation with my dad. White man, 70's, O&G background. He recounted 3 conversations he had in the past several weeks with 3 of his oldest friends - all who voted for Trump in both 16 and 20. All 3 are sitting this one out, including the one guy who had previously told him he'd "die before he ever voted for a Democrat." Hilariously, they all told him that they now realize that they have to excise Trumpism from the GOP. LOL, good luck.

I’m skeptical that some will really sit out. Regardless I imagine there are more than a few Republican voters who know some of trumps economic talking points are bs. Whether it’s the idea that we need to triple natural gas extraction to  across-the-board tariffs helping the consumer.

These gop voters try to convince themselves that Trump doesn’t really mean that. I recall an older voter from a 2016 interview that Trump didn’t mean a literal wall with Mexico, it was only a metaphor.

 

[4th&Five 41457]

what a history buff!