2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[quigley 1565]

3 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

what a history buff!

 

Japan, Afghanistan, and Chechnya have also given them Ls.

[The Dog 44860]

36 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm not sure Hillary thought Florida was in play in 2016. She sure didn't think the blue wall was in play. Point being I'm not sure I trust the instincts of Florida Democrats any more than I'd trust the Texas democratic leadership. 

While I mostly agree that more money won't help trump, that being said, I do think them eliminating the door knocking and get out the vote offices and efforts was a huge fucking error. His support might be backed in, but getting a lot of idiots up and out to vote with a plan is NOT baked in whatsoever, imo. 

The problem wasn't the local Democrats in 2016 - it was all Hillary's campaign and their arrogance. The local parties in Michigan and Wisconsin were sounding the alarm bells and Hillary's campaign ignored them. 

Then election night happened.

[Brisketexan 106890]

51 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Polling companies have hype men now.

this is the world we chose when we decided that anyone and everyone can access the internet, and worse add content to it. 

Counterpoint: it also resulted in an infinite cascade of pics and vids of tits.

So....on balance.....titties.

[Pancho 46303]

 

[SydneyCarton 49486]

I've been told that if Harris loses Arizona that we are all to blame Zonahorn directly. 

[quigley 1565]

50 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Polling companies have hype men now.

this is the world we chose when we decided that anyone and everyone can access the internet, and worse add content to it. 

 

Quote

Response rates. You might think that Mr. Trump’s gains might be driven by big changes in the likelihood of Republicans or Democrats to respond to a poll. But the balance of response rates by party and race stayed exceptionally similar to what they were in August, even as the results were very different. To take Arizona, where our results swung the most: In August, 2.4 percent of white Democrats responded compared with 2.4 percent of white Republicans; in this poll, 2.5 percent of white Democrats responded, compared with 2.5 percent of white Republicans. Whatever’s driving Mr. Trump’s gains, it’s not evident in the response rates by party.

from https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/upshot/trump-harris-sun-belt-polls.html

In a past life, I did survey design. In explaining the variability in the NYT/Siena poll, Nate Cohn was discussing the response rate to their calls. Their response rate is 2.5%. Big numbers can overcome very low response rate, but, if I recall correctly, 500-1000 responses "high quality" polls get isn't enough. These people aren't stupid, and I'm sure they have models that can correct for stuff that are well beyond my expertise.

But if this is typical of political polling response rate, current political polling is mostly trash. The most heartening thing I take from the look underneath the hood that NYT provided is their transparency. It also explains the rationale other election modelers use for including non-polling data (fund-raising, economic data, eg).

[Zonahorn 8079]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I've been told that if Harris loses Arizona that we are all to blame Zonahorn directly. 

My ballot gets mailed out in a couple weeks, looking forward to casting it

[immamac 44343]

1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

The narrative that Harris and the Democratic party are slipping among youth or black voters is media driven bullshit.

The fact that the polls are doing sample size statistics is what makes them completely unreliable now. They aren't even close and are borderline a waste of money outside of general sentiment for some demos. 

[gmr548 16697]

2 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Here’s what’s going to happen:

Trump is going to lose every swing state and Fla and Texas thereby getting his ass handed to him in electoral votes and cementing him as the true loser he is forever and always.

And Texas is going to win the SEC undefeated in its first year, once and for all exposing the myth of the SEC.

Thus two very important questions of our time will be answered definitively this fall. And all will be right with the world.

We will look back proudly on the Fall of 24 for a long, long time.

This would constitute a Democratic EV win of the SEC footprint, which would be hilarious.

[Firemans4Horn 18528]

Nate Silver’s latest:

 

Harris leads in their average by 2.4 points in Michigan, 2.2 in Wisconsin and 1.6 points in Pennsylvania. 

[gmr548 16697]

17 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Who's underrating that? That's the closest thing to a chalk, generic D vs R presidential election in the current landscape.

[wood 11766]

2 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

I grew up in Alabama, traveled all over the FL Panhandle and some of the bleakest stretches of Mississippi and Louisiana, and even I was "impressed" by the Conroe area.

Yep I was born in FloriBama, i.e. the panhandle. Pensacola NAS. So I know where you're coming from on that. 

[TexEx15 17941]

October surprise incoming…

[Gatorubet 30713]

2 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

October surprise incoming…

[Foosters 18279]

oh man, they're gonna be hopping mad

edit: great minds, Flounder

Edited September 24 by Foosters

[Gatorubet 30713]

“If you can’t do the news cycle, don’t do the crime!”    

Said nobody I know of.  But they should’ve.

[closetohumping 17816]

3 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Is that JFK in the back?  Turncoat

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 minute ago, closetohumping said:

Is that JFK in the back?  Turncoat

got there based on experience.

[Foosters 18279]

3 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Is that JFK in the back?  Turncoat

can't tell from the photo but he's actually getting head from Nancy Reagan, which explains the look on Ronnie's face.

[bluto 4996]

1 hour ago, quigley said:

Has Ralston said this?

Ralston is saying coin flip based on data he has today. He’s not shy about giving walz/harris shit about how the campaign is handling Nevada  

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21551]

I recall the same hand-wringing over Nevada in 2020.

[linux 1787]

1 hour ago, quigley said:

Japan, Afghanistan, and Chechnya have also given them Ls.

I mean Japan also got wipedl was reading specificically about the Manchuko Operation and it was pretty devastating, like 5% of the world gobbled up in a week and a half.

Edited September 24 by linux

[Js1 87181]

13 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I recall the same hand-wringing over Nevada in 2020.

Indeed. He’s saying it’s 50/50 based on polls. His prediction comes after Early Voting ends, which there actual data to look at 

He may have been saying the same things or called Laxalt favored in 2022 based on September polling - but once had the NV SOS mail ballot and early voting data, he predicted that she would "hang on."  She won by 0.8 in a year the GOP really thought they'd finally get that NV Senate seat.

Literally his 2016 election post:

Nevada is notoriously difficult to poll, and I have not believed surveys here for many cycles. Remember all those polls that guaranteed Harry Reid would lose in 2010? Sen. Sharron Angle? Paging Sen. Sharron Angle?

Edited September 24 by Js1

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Also, duh

Biden won them 53-44 and that's why he won AZ.  NYT/Siena has Harris winning them 49-40 and trailing by 5 in this poll, which doesn't smell right (to me).  The Siena poll has her doing worse with Dems (Biden +94, Harris +84) and Trump doing better with GOP (Trump+81, Trump +87 this time) 

I could see dotard doing better among the GQP voters if enough of the previously normal voters are so disgusted they stay home. 87% of a much smaller turnout doesn’t help him. 

[wood 11766]

I  was thinking I might get one of these signs for my yard. My Trumpy nextdoor neighbor's head will explode. Too bad they misspelled fascism though, but I guess 'facism' is probably a bad thing, too.

Edited September 24 by wood

[Longhorn_Fan68 34104]

21 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

got there based on experience.

got a hearty guffaw out of me for that one!

[Gatorubet 30713]

9 minutes ago, linux said:

I mean Japan also got wipedl was reading specificically about the Manchuko Operation and it was pretty devastating, like 5% of the world gobbled up in a week and a half.

Look up the Gegenmiao massacre.  Russia gonna Russia

[Js1 87181]

4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I could see dotard doing better among the GQP voters if enough of the previously normal voters are so disgusted they stay home. 87% of a much smaller turnout doesn’t help him. 

Trump didn't even AZ by 5 in 2016!  He won by 3.5 

[wood 11766]

4 hours ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Do they not realize that to have any chance to excise Trump they need to vote FOR Harris?  He needs to be beaten so badly that even the GQP will dump him.  Sitting out doesn't really run up the margins needed for the party to summon the courage to overthrow dear leader.

But of course logic doesn't reign even amongst the educated elites in the GQP.

Este. Any Republicans who want their 'old Republican Party' back someday, need to be voting for Harris now.

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

31 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

October surprise incoming…

I laughed. Ain’t shit happening to that fucker. 

[TexasEd 8266]

29 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Is that JFK in the back?  Turncoat

Hopefully it's Brutus.

 

[Red Five 41737]

I know it’s played to death, but imagine for a moment what would happen if Harris stood in front of a microphone and said that people who criticize Biden or her or whoever, that those people should be put in jail. I mean seriously think about what the result of that would be.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that she might be replaced on the ticket. It would be, at the least, the biggest story of the campaign until November.

Just another crazy thing Trump says, though. Move right along until the next one. It’s probably already forgotten.

[Js1 87181]

https://www.independentcenter.org/poll-toplines/independent-center-september-2024-survey-of-georgia-florida-north-carolina

Imma need to see another poll of this first

Florida - Trump 48, Harris 47

North Carolina - Harris 49, Trump 48

Georgia - Harris 49, Trump 47

Favorability:

Florida - Harris 50/48, Trump 49/50
Georgia - Harris 49/49, Trump 49/50
North Carolina - Harris 51/48, Trump 47/51

Rick Scott 43, DMP 42

[linux 1787]

5 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I know it’s played to death, but imagine for a moment what would happen if Harris stood in front of a microphone and said that people who criticize Biden or her or whoever, that those people should be put in jail. I mean seriously think about what the result of that would be.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that she might be replaced on the ticket. It would be, at the least, the biggest story of the campaign until November.

Just another crazy thing Trump says, though. Move right along until the next one. It’s probably already forgotten.

Sadly this is self defeating, we are 8 years past this. Reality is that he has 45% of the population brainwashed by hatred, DJT is the symptom not the disease. We are kind of lucky he is a clown idiot though and his coup attempt was born out of nothing more than wishcasting.

Edited September 24 by linux

[Born to Run 6601]

59 minutes ago, wood said:

Yep I was born in FloriBama, i.e. the panhandle. Pensacola NAS. So I know where you're coming from on that. 

Ever toss a mullet? For fun or profit?

[wood 11766]

11 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Ever toss a mullet? For fun or profit?

LOL, I don't think so!

ETA: I just googled that. LMFAO.

Edited September 24 by wood

[atomheartbevo 90642]

4 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Here’s what’s going to happen:

Trump is going to lose every swing state and Fla and Texas thereby getting his ass handed to him in electoral votes and cementing him as the true loser he is forever and always.

And Texas is going to win the SEC undefeated in its first year, once and for all exposing the myth of the SEC.

Thus two very important questions of our time will be answered definitively this fall. And all will be right with the world.

We will look back proudly on the Fall of 24 for a long, long time.

Normally @RDCanecutter and I are the lone drool emojis, but you managed to get 10 or more in one post.

[Hank Kingsley 21781]

26 minutes ago, linux said:

Sadly this is self defeating, we are 8 years past this. Reality is that he has 45% of the population brainwashed by hatred, DJT is the symptom not the disease. We are kind of lucky he is a clown idiot though and his coup attempt was born out of nothing more than wishcasting.

Being a clown idiot is why he's been this successful politically. That's the feature that attracts most of his voters. If he was a serious man he never would have even won a Republican primary. 

 

[atomheartbevo 90642]

5 hours ago, Js1 said:

Okay sure but Trump tripled his margin in FL between 2016 and 2020. I think people Need to understand there was a lot of Covid related migration.

FL/TX/MT could be redder than 2020 and CA/NY/CO/WA could be bluer than 2020 based on where it seems people are moving from and to. 

Yeah, but there were also a lot of COVID-related deaths among the MAGA audience.

[linux 1787]

30 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Being a clown idiot is why he's been this successful politically. That's the feature that attracts most of his voters. If he was a serious man he never would have even won a Republican primary. 

 

Yeah, but it is just a pet peeve about people wondering out loud about him, its been 8 years straight, the same can be said for his scandals, it could be argued that he created a cult because he creates a scandal a minute.

He is only 45-46% of the electorate, concentrate on the win, then arrest him and denazify, that should be the only goals going forward.

[Js1 87181]

Pew Poll of Latinos (and older too, late August to early September): 

57-39 Harris

It was 59-38 in 2020, so not a big difference and easily within the MOE. 

[Gatorubet 30713]

 

[Horn Dog 10158]

Hey Don, prepare thy anus!

Edited September 24 by Horn Dog

[Gap03 3386]

12 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Hey Don, prepare thy anus!

Watch your ass - Paxton's likely to send in his goon squad accusing you of ballot harvesting.

[quigley 1565]

2 hours ago, linux said:

I mean Japan also got wipedl was reading specificically about the Manchuko Operation and it was pretty devastating, like 5% of the world gobbled up in a week and a half.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War

This conflict upended Russian and Asian history and changed the dynamic between East-West.

 

The conflict you're referring to occurred after the atomic bombs had been dropped. The Japanese had already lost.

[linux 1787]

5 minutes ago, quigley said:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War

This conflict upended Russian and Asian history and changed the dynamic between East-West.

 

The conflict you're referring to occurred after the atomic bombs had been dropped. The Japanese had already 

Actually the surrender was so confusing nobody knew what the fuck Hirohito said. The fighting continued even after August 15. But the damage was done.

[royiv 9786]

56 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Hey Don, prepare thy anus!

Only five ballots?

[heso 2863]

4 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

 

2022 had a little more than 1.4 million mail in ballots and roughly 70% of those were D. 

I don’t think this tells us much other than dotard ruined mail in ballots for the gop. The gop were the ones that pushed for mail in ballot expansion in PA in 2019 to make it easier for rural olds to vote. 

[Js1 87181]

32 minutes ago, heso said:

2022 had a little more than 1.4 million mail in ballots and roughly 70% of those were D. 

I don’t think this tells us much other than dotard ruined mail in ballots for the gop. The gop were the ones that pushed for mail in ballot expansion in PA in 2019 to make it easier for rural olds to vote. 

It doesn’t tell us much bc PA polling and 2022 indicates mail voting is only gonna be about 20-25% of the total. This isn’t 2020 - 75% of voters have indicated they are voting in person this time around. 

This should also erase the “red mirage” where GOP in-person voting makes initial results look super rosy and then Dem mail ballots eats into that. At least in states like PA, WI, VA, etc. 

[TexEx15 17941]

Posted in Texas thread but relates to the election as well.