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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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36 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm not sure Hillary thought Florida was in play in 2016. She sure didn't think the blue wall was in play. Point being I'm not sure I trust the instincts of Florida Democrats any more than I'd trust the Texas democratic leadership. 

While I mostly agree that more money won't help trump, that being said, I do think them eliminating the door knocking and get out the vote offices and efforts was a huge fucking error. His support might be backed in, but getting a lot of idiots up and out to vote with a plan is NOT baked in whatsoever, imo. 

The problem wasn't the local Democrats in 2016 - it was all Hillary's campaign and their arrogance. The local parties in Michigan and Wisconsin were sounding the alarm bells and Hillary's campaign ignored them. 

Then election night happened.

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51 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Polling companies have hype men now.

this is the world we chose when we decided that anyone and everyone can access the internet, and worse add content to it. 

Counterpoint: it also resulted in an infinite cascade of pics and vids of tits.

So....on balance.....titties.

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50 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Polling companies have hype men now.

this is the world we chose when we decided that anyone and everyone can access the internet, and worse add content to it. 

 

Quote

Response rates. You might think that Mr. Trump’s gains might be driven by big changes in the likelihood of Republicans or Democrats to respond to a poll. But the balance of response rates by party and race stayed exceptionally similar to what they were in August, even as the results were very different. To take Arizona, where our results swung the most: In August, 2.4 percent of white Democrats responded compared with 2.4 percent of white Republicans; in this poll, 2.5 percent of white Democrats responded, compared with 2.5 percent of white Republicans. Whatever’s driving Mr. Trump’s gains, it’s not evident in the response rates by party.

from https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/upshot/trump-harris-sun-belt-polls.html

In a past life, I did survey design. In explaining the variability in the NYT/Siena poll, Nate Cohn was discussing the response rate to their calls. Their response rate is 2.5%. Big numbers can overcome very low response rate, but, if I recall correctly, 500-1000 responses "high quality" polls get isn't enough. These people aren't stupid, and I'm sure they have models that can correct for stuff that are well beyond my expertise.

But if this is typical of political polling response rate, current political polling is mostly trash. The most heartening thing I take from the look underneath the hood that NYT provided is their transparency. It also explains the rationale other election modelers use for including non-polling data (fund-raising, economic data, eg).

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1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

The narrative that Harris and the Democratic party are slipping among youth or black voters is media driven bullshit.

The fact that the polls are doing sample size statistics is what makes them completely unreliable now. They aren't even close and are borderline a waste of money outside of general sentiment for some demos. 

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2 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Here’s what’s going to happen:

Trump is going to lose every swing state and Fla and Texas thereby getting his ass handed to him in electoral votes and cementing him as the true loser he is forever and always.

And Texas is going to win the SEC undefeated in its first year, once and for all exposing the myth of the SEC.

Thus two very important questions of our time will be answered definitively this fall. And all will be right with the world.

We will look back proudly on the Fall of 24 for a long, long time.

This would constitute a Democratic EV win of the SEC footprint, which would be hilarious.

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2 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

I grew up in Alabama, traveled all over the FL Panhandle and some of the bleakest stretches of Mississippi and Louisiana, and even I was "impressed" by the Conroe area.

Yep I was born in FloriBama, i.e. the panhandle. Pensacola NAS. So I know where you're coming from on that. 

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1 hour ago, quigley said:

Has Ralston said this?

Ralston is saying coin flip based on data he has today. He’s not shy about giving walz/harris shit about how the campaign is handling Nevada  

 

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1 hour ago, quigley said:

Japan, Afghanistan, and Chechnya have also given them Ls.

I mean Japan also got wipedl was reading specificically about the Manchuko Operation and it was pretty devastating, like 5% of the world gobbled up in a week and a half.

image.thumb.png.4062a217521d4d1a2c980b1b460b681a.png

Edited by linux
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13 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I recall the same hand-wringing over Nevada in 2020.

Indeed. He’s saying it’s 50/50 based on polls. His prediction comes after Early Voting ends, which there actual data to look at 

He may have been saying the same things or called Laxalt favored in 2022 based on September polling - but once had the NV SOS mail ballot and early voting data, he predicted that she would "hang on."  She won by 0.8 in a year the GOP really thought they'd finally get that NV Senate seat.

Literally his 2016 election post:

Nevada is notoriously difficult to poll, and I have not believed surveys here for many cycles. Remember all those polls that guaranteed Harry Reid would lose in 2010? Sen. Sharron Angle? Paging Sen. Sharron Angle?

Edited by Js1
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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Also, duh

Biden won them 53-44 and that's why he won AZ.  NYT/Siena has Harris winning them 49-40 and trailing by 5 in this poll, which doesn't smell right (to me).  The Siena poll has her doing worse with Dems (Biden +94, Harris +84) and Trump doing better with GOP (Trump+81, Trump +87 this time) 

I could see dotard doing better among the GQP voters if enough of the previously normal voters are so disgusted they stay home. 87% of a much smaller turnout doesn’t help him. 

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I  was thinking I might get one of these signs for my yard. My Trumpy nextdoor neighbor's head will explode. Too bad they misspelled fascism though, but I guess 'facism' is probably a bad thing, too.

66d9170f486b64.26667039.jpg

Edited by wood
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9 minutes ago, linux said:

I mean Japan also got wipedl was reading specificically about the Manchuko Operation and it was pretty devastating, like 5% of the world gobbled up in a week and a half.

Look up the Gegenmiao massacre.  Russia gonna Russia

IMG_3403.gif.dad7ef54ea04ba328619e25e2dd9474f.gif

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4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I could see dotard doing better among the GQP voters if enough of the previously normal voters are so disgusted they stay home. 87% of a much smaller turnout doesn’t help him. 

Trump didn't even AZ by 5 in 2016!  He won by 3.5 

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4 hours ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Do they not realize that to have any chance to excise Trump they need to vote FOR Harris?  He needs to be beaten so badly that even the GQP will dump him.  Sitting out doesn't really run up the margins needed for the party to summon the courage to overthrow dear leader.

But of course logic doesn't reign even amongst the educated elites in the GQP.

Este. Any Republicans who want their 'old Republican Party' back someday, need to be voting for Harris now.

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I know it’s played to death, but imagine for a moment what would happen if Harris stood in front of a microphone and said that people who criticize Biden or her or whoever, that those people should be put in jail. I mean seriously think about what the result of that would be.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that she might be replaced on the ticket. It would be, at the least, the biggest story of the campaign until November.

Just another crazy thing Trump says, though. Move right along until the next one. It’s probably already forgotten.

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https://www.independentcenter.org/poll-toplines/independent-center-september-2024-survey-of-georgia-florida-north-carolina

Imma need to see another poll of this first

Florida - Trump 48, Harris 47

North Carolina - Harris 49, Trump 48

Georgia - Harris 49, Trump 47

Favorability:

Florida - Harris 50/48, Trump 49/50
Georgia - Harris 49/49, Trump 49/50
North Carolina - Harris 51/48, Trump 47/51

Rick Scott 43, DMP 42

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5 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I know it’s played to death, but imagine for a moment what would happen if Harris stood in front of a microphone and said that people who criticize Biden or her or whoever, that those people should be put in jail. I mean seriously think about what the result of that would be.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that she might be replaced on the ticket. It would be, at the least, the biggest story of the campaign until November.

Just another crazy thing Trump says, though. Move right along until the next one. It’s probably already forgotten.

Sadly this is self defeating, we are 8 years past this. Reality is that he has 45% of the population brainwashed by hatred, DJT is the symptom not the disease. We are kind of lucky he is a clown idiot though and his coup attempt was born out of nothing more than wishcasting.

Edited by linux
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4 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Here’s what’s going to happen:

Trump is going to lose every swing state and Fla and Texas thereby getting his ass handed to him in electoral votes and cementing him as the true loser he is forever and always.

And Texas is going to win the SEC undefeated in its first year, once and for all exposing the myth of the SEC.

Thus two very important questions of our time will be answered definitively this fall. And all will be right with the world.

We will look back proudly on the Fall of 24 for a long, long time.


Normally @RDCanecutter and I are the lone drool emojis, but you managed to get 10 or more in one post.

Great Gatsby Movie GIF by Sony

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26 minutes ago, linux said:

Sadly this is self defeating, we are 8 years past this. Reality is that he has 45% of the population brainwashed by hatred, DJT is the symptom not the disease. We are kind of lucky he is a clown idiot though and his coup attempt was born out of nothing more than wishcasting.

Being a clown idiot is why he's been this successful politically. That's the feature that attracts most of his voters. If he was a serious man he never would have even won a Republican primary. 

 

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5 hours ago, Js1 said:

Okay sure but Trump tripled his margin in FL between 2016 and 2020. I think people Need to understand there was a lot of Covid related migration.

FL/TX/MT could be redder than 2020 and CA/NY/CO/WA could be bluer than 2020 based on where it seems people are moving from and to. 

Yeah, but there were also a lot of COVID-related deaths among the MAGA audience.

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