2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Js1 87181]

4 minutes ago, Chopper said:

I thought I'd have my exit strategy in place by now, if needed, but it's been delayed by unforeseen circumstances. As if we don't have enough to worry about now, the projected map for 2032 looks quite challenging without a major shift.

Oh for the love of God, can we get through 2024 first before we start talking about an election 8 years away? 

[Red Five 41737]

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Monmouth is a super weird pollster

"Are you extremely motivated?"  "Hell yes I am!"

"Are you extremely/very motivated?"  "Nah not really." 

[quigley 1565]

57 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I’ve mentioned this before - the GOP’s EC edge is not as high as it was the last 2 cycles 

 

According to The New York Times’s polling average, it does not seem that Kamala Harris will necessarily need to win the popular vote by much to prevail.

 

The simplest way to measure the advantage in the Electoral College is to take the difference between the national popular vote and the vote in the “tipping-point” state (the state that puts one candidate over the top in the Electoral College). Right now, Vice President Harris leads the polling in the national vote by 2.6 percentage points, and leads Wisconsin — the current tipping-point state — by 1.8 points, which makes Mr. Trump’s advantage less than a point.

By this measure, Mr. Trump’s advantage is only around one-fifth as large as it was four years ago, when President Biden fared 3.8 points better nationally than in Wisconsin (the tipping-point state in 2020).

How is it possible?

On the one hand, Ms. Harris is holding her own in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. It’s worth noting this is tenuous: Together, these states help Ms. Harris win the Electoral College, with little room for error. Should the polls meaningfully underestimate Mr. Trump in any one of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, as they did in the last two presidential elections, much of his Electoral College advantage could return.

The second half of the explanation, oddly, is that Mr. Trump is gaining in noncompetitive states like New York, improving his position in the national popular vote without helping him in the most important states. In particular, he appears to be faring best in the states where Republicans excelled in the midterm election two years ago.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/25/upshot/trump-electoral-college-harris.html

There is the whole article but the overall point Cohn makes - this could be 2022 redux where the GOP and Trump make smalls gains in blue states, like NY and CA, but not enough to win them, while Dems win in the purple states and win them and thus win the EC. 

Sorry, but polling, when it's so close and the polling process is so flawed, don't mean shit.

Play through the whistle and plan on playing through to Jan 20.

[heso 2863]

When I was in college I worked at a fedex print center for a few months. There was a lady that had worked there forever. Middle aged, less than 5’ tall, obese, chain smoker. She told me that she had recently had her 4th heart attack and her doctor told her she needed to quit smoking, but her mother smoked her whole life and was fine, and that was evidence enough for her that the doctor was wrong about her needing to quit. 

We had a scale for adding up the change in the registers. You just put your coins on it and it told you the value. It died and was replaced with a centrifugal change counter/sorter. The first night that I was closing up after we got the new counter I suddenly hear banging and screaming in the back. I run back and this lady is screaming that something is wrong with the change counter. I look at it and she had not only put her loose change in it, but also all of the rolled coins as well, which had obviously banged around in the machine, some flung out, some split open. I said Mary you’re just supposed to put the loose change in there, not the rolls. And her immediate reaction was that I was wrong because Sue told her to put in all of her change.

That was the first time I remember being dumbstruck by just how fucking stupid people can be, just completely unable to comprehend basic life and unable to accept someone challenging something they believe. 

That woman is probably closer to the average intelligence of our electorate than most assume. A massive segment of the voters in this country have absolutely zero capacity to make informed decisions about politics. 

[quigley 1565]

57 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

 

I do not think they are willfully ignorant. I think they are all on board with hateful bigotry

Trump's win has licensed open and continued bigotry for another generation, at least.

[C-Man 27779]

SIAP

‘Haitian group in Springfield files criminal charges against Trump and Vance after false pet claims’

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna172555

Won’t amount to much but good on them for trying.

[quigley 1565]

43 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Pete sits down for a long and deep conversation with Ezra Klein covering all sorts of topics related to politics. Very interesting discussion between them, and it's amazing to see how Pete is well prepared and thoughtful in every reply. I really hope that one day he's in a race for a higher profile office, he's such an authentic and empathetic person, truly a rare breed in politics these days. 

 

 

He and AOC are great communicators. I'm down with either or both (no not that way).

[quigley 1565]

31 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

So, make it possible for the candidate who will deport them all to Palestine and give Bibi the green light to level the place the week after?

That's a great idea.

Trump's already said he'd re-institute Muslim ban.

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

Just now, quigley said:

Trump's already said he'd re-institute Muslim ban.

And if they think Biden has enabled Netanyahu then wait until six months into a Trump presidency.  Gaza will be completely gone.

[Dahobbs 18319]

7 minutes ago, Red Five said:

"Are you extremely motivated?"  "Hell yes I am!"

"Are you extremely/very motivated?"  "Nah not really." 

It is a different group. Extremely motivated. Then Very motivated. So the Extremely/very motivated column is a larger bucket of voters. The results among 2020 voters is interesting. I'd like to see if they voted Biden or Trump in 2020. It may tell us if there is a change or if the poll may be skewed toward 2020 Trump voters. 

[quigley 1565]

21 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

There was also no Fox News 100 years ago.  What's happening now is a systemic two pronged assault on a functional democracy.  Destroying educational attainment and critical thinking skills coupled with focus group tested non-stop propaganda.  The combination of the two has broken morality for 45% of the electorate.

more succinctly put than i was going to do

[South Austin 53222]

10 minutes ago, heso said:

When I was in college I worked at a fedex print center for a few months. There was a lady that had worked there forever. Middle aged, less than 5’ tall, obese, chain smoker. She told me that she had recently had her 4th heart attack and her doctor told her she needed to quit smoking, but her mother smoked her whole life and was fine, and that was evidence enough for her that the doctor was wrong about her needing to quit. 

We had a scale for adding up the change in the registers. You just put your coins on it and it told you the value. It died and was replaced with a centrifugal change counter/sorter. The first night that I was closing up after we got the new counter I suddenly hear banging and screaming in the back. I run back and this lady is screaming that something is wrong with the change counter. I look at it and she had not only put her loose change in it, but also all of the rolled coins as well, which had obviously banged around in the machine, some flung out, some split open. I said Mary you’re just supposed to put the loose change in there, not the rolls. And her immediate reaction was that I was wrong because Sue told her to put in all of her change.

That was the first time I remember being dumbstruck by just how fucking stupid people can be, just completely unable to comprehend basic life and unable to accept someone challenging something they believe. 

That woman is probably closer to the average intelligence of our electorate than most assume. A massive segment of the voters in this country have absolutely zero capacity to make informed decisions about politics. 

You had sex with that lady, didn't you?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

You of all people know the answer is yes.

[locodos 5591]

26 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Fully Engorged, imo.

That's it!  I'm voting by mail!

[DixonHur 11959]

17 minutes ago, quigley said:

There's a correlation, but it's not as strong as those with education think it is.

Too many shitty schools (many for profit) offering worthless degrees.

We've basically lied to a generation (plus) of kids by telling them to get a college degree when most of them would have been better off going to a technical school or going straight into the work force.

Now they're saddled with massive debt and rightfully pissed. 

Many are now blame the education system (who the associate with the Dems) and voting for Trump... Which is especially ironic considering Trump literally got sued for running a fraudulent for-profit "University".

Edited September 25 by DixonHur

[Js1 87181]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

It is a different group. Extremely motivated. Then Very motivated. So the Extremely/very motivated column is a larger bucket of voters. The results among 2020 voters is interesting. I'd like to see if they voted Biden or Trump in 2020. It may tell us if there is a change or if the poll may be skewed toward 2020 Trump voters. 

The recall vote validated among 2020 voters only was Biden +1

[heso 2863]

PA

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Harris
47%
Trump
47%
Oliver
1%
Stein
0%

“In every state polled, more 2020 Biden voters say they will now vote for Trump than 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Harris. Between 9% and 13% of Biden 2020 voters in the nine states polled now say they will vote for Trump, while between 4% and 10% of Trump 2020 voters now say they will vote for Kamala Harris.

Furthermore, a higher percentage of Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Donald Trump in November than Biden 2020 voters say they will vote for Harris in every state polled. Between 85% and 91% of 2020 Trump voters now say they will vote for Trump again in November, compared to between 79% and 88% of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris.

The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state polled. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issues in each state.”

[Js1 87181]

1 minute ago, heso said:

Furthermore, a higher percentage of Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Donald Trump in November than Biden 2020 voters say they will vote for Harris in every state polled. Between 85% and 91% of 2020 Trump voters now say they will vote for Trump again in November, compared to between 79% and 88% of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris.

[SydneyCarton 49486]

25 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

This is somewhat depressing but shows why we have got to continue to work to turn Texas blue:

 

 

22 minutes ago, Chopper said:

I thought I'd have my exit strategy in place by now, if needed, but it's been delayed by unforeseen circumstances. As if we don't have enough to worry about now, the projected map for 2032 looks quite challenging without a major shift.

I'm not sure I buy this as an obvious death knell. I don't think it's accounting for people fleeing Texas because of climate change, and Texas does continue to creep right as the olds die. Sure, folks are coming in, but a fuck ton of youngs are leaving and not returning. That should also create more housing for those fleeing blue wall states. But overall, shit doens't feel right. Old people are going to die in Florida, and we expect younger people are going to say "Yes, I need to move to the state that has 3 major hurricanes a year and insurance costs are insane."

[The Dog 44860]

Full article on substack: https://thecycle.substack.com/p/the-gops-2024-achilles-heel

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The GOP's 2024 Achilles Heel

Why Trump's Take Over of the RNC May Cost Republicans Big in 2024

Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭

Sep 24, 2024

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When the news that the Trump family had turned the Republican National Committee into a Trump family business, I was ecstatic.

Why?

As my buddy Rick Wilson would tell you, everything Trump touches dies, and I knew the RNC would be no different.

Despite dropping her real last name (Romney) and being willing to help Trump and his associates conspire to submit fake Electors as part of Trump’s broader plot to stay in power, Trump dumped then-RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel and handed the keys to the entire Republican Party’s kingdom to Lara Trump, whose only qualification for the post is that she is part of the Trump family’s crime cabal.

Now, I need to explain exactly why I was so happy that day, and to do that, I need to go into some brief nerd background.

In my area of political science we spend a lot of time, I mean A LOT, measuring campaign activities to see if they affect voter turnout and vote choice. As campaigns first evolved into the TV era, and then into the digital age, these empirical studies have subjected all kinds of hypotheses about voter turnout and vote choice to empirical and experimental scrutiny.

I won’t bore you with that research history aside from to tell you that by far the things that affects turnout and vote choice (persuasion) the most is in-person GOTV (Get Out The Vote) field programs.

I knew that in 2020 when Democrats made the decision to suspend virtually all of its in-person field work due to the pandemic, which is why I immediately panicked.

Now, don’t get me wrong, suspending in person events in the midst of a global pandemic makes absolute sense, especially because the demographic most susceptible to death from COVID, the elderly, are also the vast majority of people that volunteer to knock on strangers’ doors to get them to vote.

However, since the Republican Party was no longer a political party, and now a cult, Republicans decided that since COVID was a hoax and not something that could ever happen to them.

Anti-science Republican governors reopened their states at the height of the pandemic and in the process killed and sickened many Republicans, who believed their lies and thus left themselves intentionally vulnerable to dying.

https://www.axios.com/2022/03/25/coronavirus-pandemics-politics-masks-vaccines-deaths

While Democrats transitioned to less effective, virtual field operations like texting and phone banking, Republicans kept running full steam ahead. They even resumed Trump’s rallies, each of which became super spreader events.

As soon as I realized we were going to unilaterally suspend our in-person field, I got a sick feeling in my gut because I suspected it would hurt Democratic Party performance, especially down ballot where interest in elections are much, much lower. Indeed, I flew right into the belly of the COVID beast, Texas, BEFORE there was a vaccine so I could make a personal appeal to Texas House and state legislative candidates to find a way to conduct in-person field.

As I watched 19 districts break for Biden but elect Trump cronies to the House as well as the underperformance Democrats suffered in state legislative races I learned a big lesson about the tremendous importance of in-person field and especially the powerful advantages that can fall to one party when the other party’s field game is absent or inept.

That brings us back to the present.

There is something you should know about the Republican National Committee. Until recently, it was the primary organizer for the entire Republican Party’s largely effective in-person field operation. Indeed, the RNC was so good at field that in the 2016 cycle they entirely handicapped the under-funded and chaotic mess that was the Trump campaign that cycle, essentially handicapping Trump from the ineptness of his own operation.

Now, some people would have looked at the RNC’s field operation and think, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” but that is not what happened once Lara Trump took over.

Still reeling from the mistakes Trump forced onto the RNC in 2020 with his lies about early voting and mail-in voting, Ronna McDaniel knew she had a big hill to climb to fix Trump’s damage. The results of the 2022 midterms proved that Trump’s election lies were having durable effects on Republican voters, who continued to shift away from early and absentee voting and towards Election Day only voting.

The reason the Republican Party invented absentee and early voting was because relying on a largely apathetic electorate to vote on one special day is bad strategy that produces sub-optimal outcomes.

It took a long time for Democrats to copy Republicans and begin to push early and absentee voting hard in states where they had legislative powers to make electoral reforms.

The Trump takeover of the RNC does seem to have undermined the GOP’s 2024 cycle in-person field operation. 👇

https://apnews.com/article/trump-political-action-committees-voter-canvassing-musk-0c1c095a6516b7bcbc80bf94fe0fe45a

As soon as the Republican National Committee became the Trump National Committee, Sheriff Lara, who again has 0 qualifications for her post other than slavish loyalty to her Orange Daddy, defunded two of the RNC’s key operations: early vote “harvesting” and minority outreach operations.

Instead of focusing on turning out the vote, the 2024 version of the RNC is mission focused on suppressing the vote, shifting both attention and resources to building infrastructure to contest the results off the 2024 cycle and building voter intimidation infrastructure, which they call their poll watchers program.

So, if the RNC has divested from in-person field organizing, who exactly is running the GOP’s field outreach this cycle?

The answer to that should fill you with glee because it is, apparently, Elon Musk’s superPAC and right wing grifter and Turning Point USA president Charlie Kirk.

Yes, Republicans have turned their once enviable organizing duties out to the private sector and to people with no experience with field organization, the most logistically complex elements of the modern campaign.

Meanwhile, over at the Democratic National Committee Chair Harrison has built and funded what will be, by far, the most extensive and comprehensive national field program in the party’s history.

Howard Dean dreamed about a 50 state vision for the DNC. Jaime Harrison actually built it.

Its real. Its here. And its about to face off against an RNC that has been gutted and turned into a piggy bank for Donald Trump.

I’ll keep you posted.

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SFHaine

20 hrs ago

Thanks so much!!

Even though you and Simon Rosenberg constantly remind me to “ worry less and do more” , the recent NY Times poll has EVERYONE depressed again … even though I’m pretty sure new voter registrants haven’t been included in the LV models —yet — ( & certainly not the registered voter models).

And if one more (male) pundit says “ Dobbs is #9 on the important list” I know women are not just engaged - they’re enraged!!

Thanks!

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Mark Lee Witten

Mark Lee Witten

7 hrs ago

I live in battleground AZ and have been visited at my home twice by Harris volunteers. I have not seen anyone from Traitor Trump’s side!

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ETA tl;dr - The Trumps eliminated the GOP's very effective in-person field organization and outsourced it to Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk's organizations while the Democrats have built a massive 50-state field organization:

 

Edited September 25 by The Dog

[Red Five 41737]

1 minute ago, heso said:

The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state polled.

Great! I'm sure everyone is excited at how Biden/Harris turned around the absolute dumpster fire left from the Trump administration. Oh what's that....?

[RomaVicta 30580]

11 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

And if they think Biden has enabled Netanyahu then wait until six months into a Trump presidency.  Gaza will be completely gone.

 It's a smart real estate move. Runoff your nig blacks then build high rise condos. No brainer. Should work in Gaza for his brother from another mother.

I fucking hate Netanyahu.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34104]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

I'm not sure I buy this as an obvious death knell. I don't think it's accounting for people fleeing Texas because of climate change, and Texas does continue to creep right as the olds die. Sure, folks are coming in, but a fuck ton of youngs are leaving and not returning. That should also create more housing for those fleeing blue wall states. But overall, shit doens't feel right. Old people are going to die in Florida, and we expect younger people are going to say "Yes, I need to move to the state that has 3 major hurricanes a year and insurance costs are insane."

aren't you a ray of sunshine. 🫶

[BrickHorn 18447]

23 minutes ago, heso said:

There was a lady that had worked there forever. Middle aged, less than 5’ tall, obese

Go on…

[SydneyCarton 49486]

11 minutes ago, South Austin said:

You had sex with that lady, didn't you?

Why are you the past tense here?

7 minutes ago, heso said:

PA

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Harris
47%
Trump
47%
Oliver
1%
Stein
0%

“In every state polled, more 2020 Biden voters say they will now vote for Trump than 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Harris. Between 9% and 13% of Biden 2020 voters in the nine states polled now say they will vote for Trump, while between 4% and 10% of Trump 2020 voters now say they will vote for Kamala Harris.

Furthermore, a higher percentage of Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Donald Trump in November than Biden 2020 voters say they will vote for Harris in every state polled. Between 85% and 91% of 2020 Trump voters now say they will vote for Trump again in November, compared to between 79% and 88% of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris.

The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state polled. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issues in each state.”

Fucking PA.

2 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

aren't you a ray of sunshine. 🫶

I mean, comparied to the original post, yeah, I feel like I'm pretty sunny on that topic. 

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

I'm not sure I buy this as an obvious death knell. I don't think it's accounting for people fleeing Texas because of climate change, and Texas does continue to creep right as the olds die. Sure, folks are coming in, but a fuck ton of youngs are leaving and not returning. That should also create more housing for those fleeing blue wall states. But overall, shit doens't feel right. Old people are going to die in Florida, and we expect younger people are going to say "Yes, I need to move to the state that has 3 major hurricanes a year and insurance costs are insane."

The olds will keep moving to FL because it's ingrained into their brains to do that.  Although, three hurricanes per year and $2K per month just in home insurance might change that.  Keep in mind those olds move from the NE and Midwest and lean heavily Republican, which just makes those areas more Democratic.  

I do think there will be long term migration patterns out of states that are blast furnaces.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

I wouldn’t start worrying about 2032 and the electoral college. States like TX and FL are circling the drain in many ways. Not all but many. People are starting to leave FL because home ownership costs are too high partially due to DeSantis’ poor policies. Maybe someday in Texas our voters will realize how badly the state has been managed in the last 25 years under GOP leadership.

and as always, the parties and platforms will shift to find an approximate 50/50 equilibrium.

[SydneyCarton 49486]

Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

The olds will keep moving to FL because it's ingrained into their brains to do that.  Although, three hurricanes per year and $2K per month just in home insurance might change that.  Keep in mind those olds move from the NE and Midwest and lean heavily Republican, which just makes those areas more Democratic.  

I do think there will be long term migration patterns out of states that are blast furnaces.  

Old people's finances aren't what they used to be, dude. The late 40's and 50 year olds looking to retire in 10 years aren't going to be in the same financial position as the olds who've been in florida for 20-30 years now, imo. And the ones with the money likely will be NY types, so probably Democrats. Which was the case before Trump Brain infected this sect of boomers. Anyway, it's one thing to be a frog in boiling water the last 10 years as FL insurance has gone apeshit, but it's another to look at your finances and say "Yes, I can afford 4k a month in expesnes that aren't a mortgage or rent in retirement." 

 

[LCHorn 2751]

46 minutes ago, Chopper said:

I thought I'd have my exit strategy in place by now, if needed, but it's been delayed by unforeseen circumstances. As if we don't have enough to worry about now, the projected map for 2032 looks quite challenging without a major shift.

Yeah, but that blue Texas sure looks pretty, doesn’t it?  Imagine if we can flip it…

[chainsaw 10290]

Just now, LCHorn said:

Yeah, but that blue Texas sure looks pretty, doesn’t it?  Imagine if we can flip it…

We can and we will, as old people die off and the bulk of the growth happens in suburban counties. I'm comfortable saying Williamson County will never go red again. We'll get there soon with Tarrant, Fort Bend, and Hays.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20914]

 

 

 

[Dahobbs 18319]

29 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The recall vote validated among 2020 voters only was Biden +1

so a +2 shift to Trump for 2020 voters? That's concerning. 

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Old people's finances aren't what they used to be, dude. The late 40's and 50 year olds looking to retire in 10 years aren't going to be in the same financial position as the olds who've been in florida for 20-30 years now, imo. And the ones with the money likely will be NY types, so probably Democrats. Which was the case before Trump Brain infected this sect of boomers. Anyway, it's one thing to be a frog in boiling water the last 10 years as FL insurance has gone apeshit, but it's another to look at your finances and say "Yes, I can afford 4k a month in expesnes that aren't a mortgage or rent in retirement." 

 

I think you're underrating the sheer number of people who own homes in high cost areas who are going to retire in the next 10-15 years.  They might be upper middle class types but they'll have +$1M in home equity and they're moving somewhere.  You are right about Florida, though.  The whole premise of retiring there was that it was cheap to buy but that's not cheap and then you add in the insurance and/or POA dues you're seeing.

I'm down on FL's immediate future, actually.

[chainsaw 10290]

Only way the GOP gets back the suburbs is if they completely reinvent themselves and purge the racism in the same way that the Dems did, costing them the south for a generation (in truth it has cost them the south for much longer)

[Js1 87181]

Hey this dude can't get dumber, can he?

 

The violent rhetoric from the left, as usual. 

[Js1 87181]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

so a +2 shift to Trump for 2020 voters? That's concerning. 

That really does not smell right to me. 

That's just my gut talking.  And the 2 cups of coffee

[SydneyCarton 49486]

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I think you're underrating the sheer number of people who own homes in high cost areas who are going to retire in the next 10-15 years.  They might be upper middle class types but they'll have +$1M in home equity and they're moving somewhere.  You are right about Florida, though.  The whole premise of retiring there was that it was cheap to buy but that's not cheap and then you add in the insurance and/or POA dues you're seeing.

I'm down on FL's immediate future, actually.

Well, if you have a million dollar's in equity, where would you buy to retire? Certainly not hot AF Texas? Not when you're not moving here for work and cheap housing. To that end, sure I see some of the SEC states like TN, NC, GA, and maybe even WVU, which I've discussed before, being attractive options. But I still think so would the blue wall states, the Pacific NW, etc. That's why I raise my eyebrow at that whole chart. 

[Pato del Muerto 53483]

52 minutes ago, quigley said:

There's a correlation, but it's not as strong as those with education think it is.

But if an intelligent person is never taught how to think critically, what’s the difference between them and a dumb person?

[TexArcher 39070]

52 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

There is no way a reasonable electorate could objectively look at these two candidates and choose Trump 

So, the fact that the polling is this close tells me that: 

A. The polling is WAY out of line with reality,

B  American democracy is a failing/failed experiment,

C. Both A & B

I'll be in my bunker.

B2. 40% of the electorate is a heavily-armed hive-mind under the control of some historically awful people who are just getting warmed up...

[Js1 87181]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, if you have a million dollar's in equity, where would you buy to retire? Certainly not hot AF Texas? Not when you're not moving here for work and cheap housing. To that end, sure I see some of the SEC states like TN, NC, GA, and maybe even WVU, which I've discussed before, being attractive options. But I still think so would the blue wall states, the Pacific NW, etc. That's why I raise my eyebrow at that whole chart. 

Tennessee is apparently taking in a lot of the California "political refugees" - cheaper than TX/FL and better weather than TX/FL/AZ. 

[Pancho 46303]

For the olds on this board, just know that Chappell Roan is very, very popular right now with the youngs.

She is absolutely getting roasted for her “both sides” comments and tried to clean it up yesterday and is getting more roasted. The young ones aren’t having this “both sides” horseshit so good on them.

You can’t poll them very well, but every once in a while there’s something that shows you where their minds are.

[Js1 87181]

4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

For the olds on this board, just know that Chappell Roan is very, very popular right now with the youngs.

She is absolutely getting roasted for her “both sides” comments and tried to clean it up yesterday and is getting more roasted. The young ones aren’t having this “both sides” horseshit so good on them.

You can’t poll them very well, but every once in a while there’s something that shows you where their minds are.

That girl needs a PR team, badly.  Or a new one, because she really dropped the ball.  Even my friends who are all diehard Dems were discussing her on Saturday night and really not happy with her saying LGBT/trans rights are so fucking important and then dropped a "both sides" and "not endorsing" right after.

Like girl, what? 

These "both sides" people have to realize it's Harris or Trump.  There is no third option that's going to win.  No one is asking her to campaign with Harris or love every single one of her policies, especially because - shocking, I know - she's a 26 year old whose letting Israel/Gaza influence her decision more than LGBT rights at home. 

Harris is not perfect.

Trump is fucking evil. 

Just say "I will be voting for Kamala because of her stance on LGBT issues and democracy, even if I do not agree on her Israel stance, and Trump will be worse on every one of those issues and more" 

Edited September 25 by Js1

[SydneyCarton 49486]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Tennessee is apparently taking in a lot of the California "political refugees" - cheaper than TX/FL and better weather than TX/FL/AZ. 

Sure. For now. But that's not really what we were talking about, we were talking about people with the means to retire in 10-15 years after a ton of Boomers die. 

I won't lie, Tenn would be high on my list of places to retire, except for its fucking politics. I'll be eyeballing that shit for the next 10 years. 

[Js1 87181]

Some movement

 

 

[SydneyCarton 49486]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Some movement

 

 

Let me summarize the entire country right now:

"There seems to be real momentum to the left in almost every state in the country, even ruby red ones...except PA."

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

26 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, if you have a million dollar's in equity, where would you buy to retire? Certainly not hot AF Texas? Not when you're not moving here for work and cheap housing. To that end, sure I see some of the SEC states like TN, NC, GA, and maybe even WVU, which I've discussed before, being attractive options. But I still think so would the blue wall states, the Pacific NW, etc. That's why I raise my eyebrow at that whole chart. 

Yeah, those middle climate states, particularly NC, TN, and GA.  TX will still see in influx due to people moving for jobs but FL has no real economy to speak of.  

[F250 29200]

On 9/24/2024 at 11:33 AM, closetohumping said:

Teddy and Lincoln were both avid wrestlers so it looks they are about to fuck Trump up.

[Xminus6 839]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Monmouth is a super weird pollster

I'm not sure how you can be Extremely Motivated but have No Candidate Choice. 

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

17 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Sure. For now. But that's not really what we were talking about, we were talking about people with the means to retire in 10-15 years after a ton of Boomers die. 

I won't lie, Tenn would be high on my list of places to retire, except for its fucking politics. I'll be eyeballing that shit for the next 10 years. 

I had Nashville on my short list of places to retire.  (I had a thread about it in on the travel board.)  Lots of positives but the main negatives were state politics.  While Nashville proper is fine, the suburbs are becoming the capital of MAGAstan and Nashville isn't big enough to balance out the state like Atlanta or Phoenix.  

[hookem2010 2700]

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, those middle climate states, particularly NC, TN, and GA.  TX will still see in influx due to people moving for jobs but FL has no real economy to speak of.  

NC on our list of potential landing spots in 5-10 years, before the kids get into middle/high school.