2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[South Austin 52088]

Just now, hookem2010 said:

NC on our list of potential landing spots in 5-10 years, before the kids get into middle/high school.

Asheville currently at the top of our fantasy retirement list.  

[Js1 85077]

17 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Let me summarize the entire country right now:

"There seems to be real momentum to the left in almost every state in the country, even ruby red ones...except PA."

I do note that, while 2022 is not 2020, on this date in 2022, Fetterman was leading 49-45 in the polling average, and he ultimately won by 5.  But somehow the polling narrowed to a tie a month later when engagement was the highest and then Oz up 0.3 pre-Election Day. 

On this date in 2022, Kelly was up 6 points in the average, and ultimately won by 5.  BUT AGAIN - polling narrowed to a statistical tie on November 7 and Masters up 0.3 pre-Election Day.  

On this date in 2022, Laxalt was up 1.2 and OH LOOK, it dropped into a statistical tie a month later, with Laxalt up 2.7 pre-Election Day.  CCM won by 0.8

Kansas abortion referendum - it's 50/50!!!!! It passed by 18 points. 

It's just fucking clicks and engagement.  A tied or close race close to the election = more clicks, more eyeballs, more revenue, more TV time. 

Edited September 25 by Js1

[SydneyCarton 47814]

3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, those middle climate states, particularly NC, TN, and GA.  TX will still see in influx due to people moving for jobs but FL has no real economy to speak of.  

I'm not sure Texas is going to have an influx of people for jobs. Texas's "Pro Business" climate is a fucking house of cards. They're going to have a hard time attracting young, educated women to work here, and as a result companies are going to stop expanding or relocating here. Climate change isn't going to do O&G any fucking favors, either. 

And we haven't even gotten to Texas's fucking pending water crisis, which people are just now realizing along the Colorado river that it's a Right Now problem, not a "down the line" problem. 

[Js1 85077]

6 minutes ago, Xminus6 said:

I'm not sure how you can be Extremely Motivated but have No Candidate Choice. 

"I am extremely motivated to vote against Trump and Harris!"

Gives major Anastasis vibes.  

[SydneyCarton 47814]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I do note that, while 2022 is not 2020, on this date in 2022, Fetterman was leading 49-45 in the polling average, and he ultimately won by 5.  But somehow the polling narrowed to a tie a month later when engagement was the highest and then Oz up 0.3 pre-Election Day. 

On this date in 2022, Kelly was up 6 points in the average, and ultimately won by 5.  BUT AGAIN - polling narrowed to a statistical tie on November 7 and Masters up 0.3 pre-Election Day.  

On this date in 2022, Laxalt was up 1.2 and OH LOOK, it dropped into a statistical tie a month later, with Laxalt up 2.7 pre-Election Day.  CCM won by 0.8

Kansas abortion referendum - it's 50/50!!!!! It lost by 18 points. 

It's just fucking clicks and engagement.  A tied or close race close to the election = more clicks, more eyeballs, more revenue, more TV time. 

It's a compelling argument, and hardly unbelievable. But I do ask this question honestly; if that was entirely true, then why are we not seeing similar behavior in the polling in all the other swing states? 

[Js1 85077]

8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It's a compelling argument, and hardly unbelievable. But I do ask this question honestly; if that was entirely true, then why are we not seeing similar behavior in the polling in all the other swing states? 

I'm not sure what you mean here - every single swing state is somehow Harris +2 to Trump +2.   

Michigan - Harris +1, +2, +1, Harris +8, Harris +5, Harris +3 
Wisconsin - tie, Trump +2, Harris +7, Harris +6, Harris +6, Harris +1, Harris +3 
North Carolina - Harris +1, Trump +2, tie, Trump +1, tie, Trump +4 Harris +2
Georgia - Harris +2, Trump +3, Trump +2, tie, Trump +2, Trump +1 
Arizona - Trump +5, tie, Trump +1, Harris +1, Harris +2, Trump +2

It's like throwing a red dart and a blue dart at a board that says +2/3, +1, tie and publishing a poll.  Because those results keep driving the conversation

Edited September 25 by Js1

[Texas73 420]

45 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

We can and we will, as old people die off and the bulk of the growth happens in suburban counties. I'm comfortable saying Williamson County will never go red again. We'll get there soon with Tarrant, Fort Bend, and Hays.

In the 2020 presidential election Hays went Biden by 11%.  Williamson went Biden by 2.3%. Hopefully, Williamson will get bluer, but Hays is much bluer currently.

[SydneyCarton 47814]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I'm not sure what you mean here - every single swing state is somehow Harris +2 to Trump +2.   

Michigan - Harris +1, +2, +1, Harris +8, Harris +5, Harris +3 
Wisconsin - tie, Trump +2, Harris +7, Harris +6, Harris +6, Harris +1, Harris +3 
North Carolina - Harris +1, Trump +2, tie, Trump +1, tie, Trump +4 Harris +2
Georgia - Harris +2, Trump +3, Trump +2, tie, Trump +2, Trump +1 
Arizona - Trump +5, tie, Trump +1, Harris +1, Harris +2, Trump +2

It's like throwing a red dart and a blue dart at a board that says +2/3, +1, tie and publishing a poll 

What I meant, specifically, was that in other swing states we've seen shifts and movements towards Harris. PA hasn't moved a lick.  The polls you've listed above, they move around, there's outliers, but it's still a general trend. Even if it's a trend and then settles. 

But most of the stuff coming out at PA is literally at 50/50, over and over. 

[RomaVicta 29769]

21 hours ago, F250 said:

Teddy and Lincoln were both avid wrestlers so it looks they are about to fuck Trump up.

I'd love to see Washington have a go at this clown.

Lincoln could just about literally tear him limb from limb. Lincoln could take the end of an axe's handle in his hand then hold it, with axe head at the other end, horizontally from his shoulder. One of the notes from his autopsy reveal just how extraordinarily large and developed his arms were. 

Teddy would cuff him around the room until Trump cried.

Edited September 26 by RomaVicta
coherence

[Pato del Muerto 52330]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

What I meant, specifically, was that in other swing states we've seen shifts and movements towards Harris. PA hasn't moved a lick.  The polls you've listed above, they move around, there's outliers, but it's still a general trend. Even if it's a trend and then settles. 

But most of the stuff coming out at PA is literally at 50/50, over and over. 

Are you telling me that our country is in the hands of Steelers and eagles fans?

[Pato del Muerto 52330]

2 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

One of the notes from his autopsy reveal just how extraordinarily large and developed his arms were. 

He made a lot of logs. 

[Bateshorn 9897]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I'm not sure what you mean here - every single swing state is somehow Harris +2 to Trump +2.   

Michigan - Harris +1, +2, +1, Harris +8, Harris +5, Harris +3 
Wisconsin - tie, Trump +2, Harris +7, Harris +6, Harris +6, Harris +1, Harris +3 
North Carolina - Harris +1, Trump +2, tie, Trump +1, tie, Trump +4 Harris +2
Georgia - Harris +2, Trump +3, Trump +2, tie, Trump +2, Trump +1 
Arizona - Trump +5, tie, Trump +1, Harris +1, Harris +2, Trump +2

It's like throwing a red dart and a blue dart at a board that says +2/3, +1, tie and publishing a poll.  Because those results keep driving the conversation

Also, polling increasingly is a measure of who is answering their cell phone, and pollsters then have to eyeball/back of the napkin that data into how the electorate might vote in November. 

[South Austin 52088]

2 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

In the 2020 presidential election Hays went Biden by 11%.  Williamson went Biden by 2.3%. Hopefully, Williamson will get bluer, but Hays is much bluer currently.

From my lawyer perspective, Hays County is much bluer because of all the down-ballot local races the Dems won in 2022, including a sweep of the judiciary. 

Sure, Biden won by a bit in Wilco.  But as far as I know the local officials are all still blood red.  And there are three incumbent Republican district judges up for re-election in November, and it doesn't look like any of them even drew a Democratic challenger.  

So I'd actually still call Wilco a red county, but one that actually held its nose and voted for Biden because Trump was awful enough to make them do it.  They may do it again, but I don't think the local offices are swinging blue any time soon.

[Js1 85077]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

What I meant, specifically, was that in other swing states we've seen shifts and movements towards Harris. PA hasn't moved a lick.  The polls you've listed above, they move around, there's outliers, but it's still a general trend. Even if it's a trend and then settles. 

But most of the stuff coming out at PA is literally at 50/50, over and over. 

Have you noticed (maybe it's just me?) that as soon as 2-3 polls come out showing Harris pulling away a tiny bit in PA, a bunch of polls come out tied or Trump leading? 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Trump hasn't led a PA poll in 538's polls in 10 days. 6 polls with Harris ahead, 4 ties.  Trump has never led the 538 average in PA against Harris. 

RCP and Nate Silver are probably the most bullish in Trump's favor and neither of them have Trump leading in PA.

Edited September 25 by Js1

[MissingInAction 24789]

Polls are piss.

[chainsaw 9835]

Just now, MissingInAction said:

Polls are piss.

Pretty much, but they still help us understand the trends

[LCHorn 2585]

2 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

Pete sits down for a long and deep conversation with Ezra Klein covering all sorts of topics related to politics. Very interesting discussion between them, and it's amazing to see how Pete is well prepared and thoughtful in every reply. I really hope that one day he's in a race for a higher profile office, he's such an authentic and empathetic person, truly a rare breed in politics these days. 

 

 

So I listened to that yesterday because a Klein/Buttigieg combo is like crack to me, and Mayor Pete as always delivered.  
 

That said, I think his failure as a candidate (and to some degree as a surrogate) is because his communication style is exactly what someone of my education and social class wants to hear.  
 

He’s a little like Elizabeth Warren in that he proposes solutions that seem appealing because they are based on data, are constructive, etc, but is almost over polished for an electorate raised on reality TV.

I don’t think he or Ezra laughed or cracked a joke in the whole hour.  I get that they want to discuss serious topics, but if he dares to run again he’s got to try to entertain a little.  
 

It also made me think that maybe he’s a better Senate candidate than Presidential candidate.  He can be Gen X Daniel Patrick Moynihan.  

[Firemans4Horn 17807]

There’s about an 80% overlap in people that pick up their phone for an unknown number that ends up being a pollster and people that believe there are litter boxes in school. 

Edited September 25 by Firemans4Horn

[Js1 85077]

5 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Polls are piss.

They are useful for trends (was this poll tied a month ago or was there movement to Harris/Trump?) but honestly, after 2020 and 2022 - they fucking suck.  The polls told us it would be a Biden blowout and that the GOP was going to retake the Senate with 52+ seats and the House with 230+ seats.

I'm still going to post them to post them, but like, meh

We are a few weeks out from having a good amount of data on early voting and usually October is when we start hearing the district-level chatter.  

Edited September 25 by Js1

[Pato del Muerto 52330]

5 minutes ago, South Austin said:

From my lawyer perspective, Hays County is much bluer because of all the down-ballot local races the Dems won in 2022, including a sweep of the judiciary. 

Sure, Biden won by a bit in Wilco.  But as far as I know the local officials are all still blood red.  And there are three incumbent Republican district judges up for re-election in November, and it doesn't look like any of them even drew a Democratic challenger.  

So I'd actually still call Wilco a red county, but one that actually held its nose and voted for Biden because Trump was awful enough to make them do it.  They may do it again, but I don't think the local offices are swinging blue any time soon.

When I voted in Wilco in 2022, there were a few races that had R unopposed. 

[South Austin 52088]

6 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Polls are piss.

Of course it's all piss.  But you still watch.

[Royalfan5 2348]

46 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Some movement

 

 

This is the first cycle since the Nelson/Hagel days in the 90's that I can remember R's pouring cash into attack ads in a Senate race. Some real fear there. The shame would be if Osborne pulls it off it takes out Fisher who is mostly a useless do nothing instead of Pete Ricketts out there spending a bunch of money to make things worse. 

[Hank Kingsley 20663]

 

[MissingInAction 24789]

5 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Of course it's all piss.  But you still watch.

I don't kink shame.

[Sawbonz 27380]

Trump is not winning PA lol

[Chewbacca 7729]

36 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Also, polling increasingly is a measure of who is answering their cell phone, and pollsters then have to eyeball/back of the napkin that data into how the electorate might vote in November. 

Shit, I don't answer the phone half the time when I know who's calling.  I'm never answering numbers I don't recognize. I'm guessing mostly Boomers still answer unknown numbers?

[4th&Five 41457]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca said:

Shit, I don't answer the phone half the time when I know who's calling.  I'm never answering numbers I don't recognize. I'm guessing mostly Boomers still answer unknown numbers?

my parents still have a land line and answer it regardless if they know the number or not and then are shocked when someone tries to scam them.

[Chopper 17150]

The US Secret Service...more pissed about this than I am about the hand-picked flunkies of Dotard nearly allowing him to get murdered.

real clear politics report https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/09/25/secret_service_agent_accused_of_sexually_assaulting_campaign_aide.html

[Js1 85077]

The secret service needs a housecleaning.  

[Chopper 17150]

3 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Shit, I don't answer the phone half the time when I know who's calling.  I'm never answering numbers I don't recognize. I'm guessing mostly Boomers still answer unknown numbers?

One unexpected benefit of not changing my 512 cell number when I moved to the 970 is that I instantly know if it's a robocall/spam, because anyone I know from the 512 is already saved in my phone. 

[Chewbacca 7729]

15 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Trump is not winning PA lol

I want to agree with you and I think you're right.  But I hate how close it seems (even if that's just pollsters fucking with us).

[Chewbacca 7729]

1 minute ago, Chopper said:

One unexpected benefit of not changing my 512 cell number when I moved to the 970 is that I instantly know if it's a robocall/spam, because anyone I know from the 512 is already saved in my phone. 

Where are you in 970?  

[Js1 85077]

 

 

[Brisketexan 104517]

Ballot incoming from the UK, from a very pissed off gal in her early 20s. No Repubs got a vote.

[ChiTownDoc 21095]

2 hours ago, heso said:

When I was in college I worked at a fedex print center for a few months. There was a lady that had worked there forever. Middle aged, less than 5’ tall, obese, chain smoker. She told me that she had recently had her 4th heart attack and her doctor told her she needed to quit smoking, but her mother smoked her whole life and was fine, and that was evidence enough for her that the doctor was wrong about her needing to quit. 

We had a scale for adding up the change in the registers. You just put your coins on it and it told you the value. It died and was replaced with a centrifugal change counter/sorter. The first night that I was closing up after we got the new counter I suddenly hear banging and screaming in the back. I run back and this lady is screaming that something is wrong with the change counter. I look at it and she had not only put her loose change in it, but also all of the rolled coins as well, which had obviously banged around in the machine, some flung out, some split open. I said Mary you’re just supposed to put the loose change in there, not the rolls. And her immediate reaction was that I was wrong because Sue told her to put in all of her change.

That was the first time I remember being dumbstruck by just how fucking stupid people can be, just completely unable to comprehend basic life and unable to accept someone challenging something they believe. 

That woman is probably closer to the average intelligence of our electorate than most assume. A massive segment of the voters in this country have absolutely zero capacity to make informed decisions about politics. 

I grew up in OK, so I probably had that moment a few years before you had.  I remember sitting there thinking, why should I respect adults, when so many of them are fucking stupid...

[Firemans4Horn 17807]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ballot incoming from the UK, from a very pissed off gal in her early 20s. No Repubs got a vote.

 

 

BALLOT HARVESTER!

[RomaVicta 29769]

15 minutes ago, Chopper said:

The US Secret Service...more pissed about this than I am about the hand-picked flunkies of Dotard nearly allowing him to get murdered.

real clear politics report https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/09/25/secret_service_agent_accused_of_sexually_assaulting_campaign_aide.html

Constant portrayals of persons with badges and guns as being squeaky clean Boy Scouts doesn't help. They are all good guys with guns looking to kill the bad guys with guns. Remember the whoring story in S. America. Look at the willingness of some Secret Service to look the other way when Trump was inciting a riot. Look at the ex-SS guy close to Trump on that day trying to manipulate the SS. 

If the SS driver and agent in the limo on Jan 6 had not refused to drive Trump to the Capitol, I think that day would have ended/continued far differently. I don't see the Capitol Police bodily trying to keep Trump from entering. I don't know what the rotten GOP members of Congress would have done.

Those agents decided on their own to do the right thing. But where was the investigation of the chain of command there and the chain of command through the Pentagon? There needs to be a massive housecleaning and legislation to codify what's treason and what isnt.

[HenryJames 65881]

27 minutes ago, Chopper said:

The US Secret Service...more pissed about this than I am about the hand-picked flunkies of Dotard nearly allowing him to get murdered.

real clear politics report https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/09/25/secret_service_agent_accused_of_sexually_assaulting_campaign_aide.html

Spoiler

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13406]

19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ballot incoming from the UK, from a very pissed off gal in her early 20s. No Repubs got a vote.

Cute in thinking that the USPS under Louis DeJoy will deliver a ballot to Austin. The address will be categorized as unreadable.

[hookem2010 2595]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

From my lawyer perspective, Hays County is much bluer because of all the down-ballot local races the Dems won in 2022, including a sweep of the judiciary. 

Sure, Biden won by a bit in Wilco.  But as far as I know the local officials are all still blood red.  And there are three incumbent Republican district judges up for re-election in November, and it doesn't look like any of them even drew a Democratic challenger.  

So I'd actually still call Wilco a red county, but one that actually held its nose and voted for Biden because Trump was awful enough to make them do it.  They may do it again, but I don't think the local offices are swinging blue any time soon.

Relocated 2 blue votes from Wise County in 2020 (lol, good times) to WilCo. We're doing our best!

However, the parents moved from Montgomery County to Sun City to be closed to their grandkids. You can probably guess what their ballot will look like with no further information.

[DDD Dad 14210]

On 9/23/2024 at 9:13 PM, Pato del Muerto said:

Still better than Fallon 

Welcome, welcome!  You're here, enjoy yourselves!

(WTF does that even mean?)

[Chopper 17150]

43 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Where are you in 970?  

Fort Collins.

[Jersey Man10 3505]

[elfenix 34169]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

He made a lot of logs. 

[chainsaw 9835]

4 minutes ago, Jersey Man10 said:

You just broke the first rule of Trump Vance 2024

[Pato del Muerto 52330]

So the only choices are citizen or illegal?

[Red Five 40621]

I'm sure a lot of illegal aliens are reading/answering Dotard emails.

[SydneyCarton 47814]

31 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Relocated 2 blue votes from Wise County in 2020 (lol, good times) to WilCo. We're doing our best!

However, the parents moved from Montgomery County to Sun City to be closed to their grandkids. You can probably guess what their ballot will look like with no further information.

I've contemplated implementing a "You want to see your grandson? I'm going to need to see your ballot before you mail it" campaign for my inlaws. 

But I realized they'd just pick the ballot. 

12 minutes ago, Jersey Man10 said:

You motherfuckers are slipping. 

We all need that link. 

[linux 1659]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

I do note that, while 2022 is not 2020, on this date in 2022, Fetterman was leading 49-45 in the polling average, and he ultimately won by 5.  But somehow the polling narrowed to a tie a month later when engagement was the highest and then Oz up 0.3 pre-Election Day. 

On this date in 2022, Kelly was up 6 points in the average, and ultimately won by 5.  BUT AGAIN - polling narrowed to a statistical tie on November 7 and Masters up 0.3 pre-Election Day.  

On this date in 2022, Laxalt was up 1.2 and OH LOOK, it dropped into a statistical tie a month later, with Laxalt up 2.7 pre-Election Day.  CCM won by 0.8

Kansas abortion referendum - it's 50/50!!!!! It passed by 18 points. 

It's just fucking clicks and engagement.  A tied or close race close to the election = more clicks, more eyeballs, more revenue, more TV time. 

I also have theories that since democrats vote earlier the answer to the polling question of who do you intend to vote for becomes moot, they just don't answer, this is just something I pulled out my ass of course but it kinda makes sense, I don't know how pollsters handle this scenario.

[Js1 85077]

Susquehanna (PA)

Tie - 46-46
Casey +8

It's so funny that Xitter was hyping up this poll would show Trump up 1 and the other one from this morning would show Trump up 3.  Neither did.