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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Goofyboy

Goofyboy 3432

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I can't put any data to it, but I actually think Covid has killed off a statistically significant portion of the GOP voter base, and it's effecting outcomes at the polls. 

Too bad it didn’t kill off more.
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Js1

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22 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

We just had Phil Cox talk to us at our conference - he runs Elon's America PAC. First off, he was a great speaker with great insights and for a guy that is clearly team Trump, he kept it about as neutral as you can imagine. It was refreshing.

Some interesting tidbits based on their internal polling - they feel strong about GA and AZ for Trump. Like outside margin of error. He also said PA and WI are outside the margin of error for Harris. MI and NC are the dead heats in their view. 

If true (and no mention of NV, so I'm guessing they think it's off the table), this would put Harris at 261 and only needing one of NC/MI to win. And I'm inclined to think Michigan is a state they are comfortable with, considering it has voted Dem 7 out of the last 8 elections and the only time it did not was by 0.23%

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Skipper

Skipper 6411

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Dockworkers strike is not great for Harris.  Assuming this doesn't get resolved in the near term, the current administration (and by extension Kamala) will take the hit regardless of fault.  The Trump campaign is desperate for new talking points and I'll be pretty surprised if this isn't a big part of their messaging soon if not already.  

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14803

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21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Hey remember in 2022 with Tudor Dixon (lol) was polling neck and neck with Whitmer?

Whitmer defeated Dixon by a margin of roughly 10.5 percentage points, a wider margin than polls indicated as well as a wider margin than Whitmer's first victory four years prior.

I got there somewhat frequently for work.  Back in the spring during the primary, I was there and the local news ran an interview with some politico type from UM.  He said that the Dearborn Caucus was basically a loud minority statewide.  He  said they only really move the needle in a few congressional districts and that union whites, suburban women, and black voters from various cities were FAR more numerous.

Take that for what it's worth.

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wood

wood 11763

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Going back to my friend in the UK who asked the Bexar County/RFK question, he just DM'd me this in response to me talking about the possibilites of a big win by Harris/Walz. Purely anecdotal, I know, but it's interesting nonetheless, imho. Oh, and we're both older, GenX, anti-Trump former Republicans, btw. We aren't all over the edge.

Quote

I was working for the League of Women Voters in Bexar Co. (I may have mentioned that in the thread) They let me go after a letter they received from the State Department, asking/demanding that they relinquish themselves of all foreign entities that are assisting them via the volunteer program.

When I was told this by the regional canvassing director I said "That's no problem, but how were we doing?" She said that our volunteers had amassed 47,630 NEW registrations since my first day in the second week of August.

The registration surge by the national LWV's all over the country she mentioned at the end of our conversation leads me to believe that it may well be a landslide.

So I, like you, certainly hope so and I have faith in Americans to make the right decision.

Well, MOST of them anyway.

/csb

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49475

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48 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

I'll also add that many Gen X'ers have millenial and Gen Z children who they can never let be right

Can you elaborate on this? For starters I believe most millenials are Boomer kids, not Gen X kids (their second families). But I'm curious what you mean. 

36 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

Over the next 8-10 years as boomers continue to die and millennials and genz take root in voting they're largely irrelevant because numbers

Yeah, well, that's why they're going all out to win and gain power forever right now. 

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 34102

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18 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Dockworkers strike is not great for Harris.  Assuming this doesn't get resolved in the near term, the current administration (and by extension Kamala) will take the hit regardless of fault.  The Trump campaign is desperate for new talking points and I'll be pretty surprised if this isn't a big part of their messaging soon if not already.  

I haven't researched this much, but I read it's really one person holding up negotiations. Any idea if that's true? If so, one person cannot yield this much power over the economy. Even the president doesn't wield such power. Make it happen. D's cannot afford a loss of this magnitude right now.

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Skipper

Skipper 6411

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1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I haven't researched this much, but I read it's really one person holding up negotiations. Any idea if that's true? If so, one person cannot yield this much power over the economy. Even the president doesn't wield such power. Make it happen. D's cannot afford a loss of this magnitude right now.

I've only been following it high level the past couple of weeks.  The "demands" of the dockworkers are pie in the sky.  To what extent that is BS posturing who knows.  The proposal yesterday seemed reasonable but I'm not near enough in the weeds to have an informed opinion.  I do know based on a 2 minute clip posted in the DT thread the rep for the union is a douchebag that is not going to garner any sympathy for their cause if he takes that attitude to the press in the coming days. 

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G650

G650 14437

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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

The older Gen X that came of age under Reagan have never really waivered from the GOP.  They've always been there.  Unfortunately/fortunately, as a Gen X, I can confidently say: It probably doesn't matter since their are hardly any of us to begin with.  

Gen X: nobody gives a fuck about you except for your quality taste in music. 

Yes, the one thing I did forget to add is I'm young Gen X (late 70s)

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106874

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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

The older Gen X that came of age under Reagan have never really waivered from the GOP.  They've always been there.  Unfortunately/fortunately, as a Gen X, I can confidently say: It probably doesn't matter since their are hardly any of us to begin with.  

Gen X: nobody gives a fuck about you except for your quality taste in music. 

SIGH.

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C-Man

C-Man 27777

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The older Gen X that came of age under Reagan have never really waivered from the GOP.  They've always been there.  Unfortunately/fortunately, as a Gen X, I can confidently say: It probably doesn't matter since their are hardly any of us to begin with.  
Gen X: nobody gives a fuck about you except for your quality taste in music. 

I’m right smack in the middle of Gen X. Hey, if America/The World burns down in my lifetime, we’re gonna have a hell of a soundtrack queued up.

“That’s great it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane, Lenny Bruce is not afraid…”

Jesus, the lyrics to that song are chillingly prescient given today’s climate. Michael Stipe knew what was coming.
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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 23037

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31 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I've only been following it high level the past couple of weeks.  The "demands" of the dockworkers are pie in the sky.  To what extent that is BS posturing who knows.  The proposal yesterday seemed reasonable but I'm not near enough in the weeds to have an informed opinion.  I do know based on a 2 minute clip posted in the DT thread the rep for the union is a douchebag that is not going to garner any sympathy for their cause if he takes that attitude to the press in the coming days. 

 

 

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wood

wood 11763

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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

The older Gen X that came of age under Reagan have never really waivered from the GOP.  They've always been there.  Unfortunately/fortunately, as a Gen X, I can confidently say: It probably doesn't matter since their are hardly any of us to begin with.  

Gen X: nobody gives a fuck about you except for your quality taste in music. 

Yeah but nobody can throw down a 'party mix' like we can.

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9989

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5 minutes ago, C-Man said:


I’m right smack in the middle of Gen X. Hey, if America/The World burns down in my lifetime, we’re gonna have a hell of a soundtrack queued up.

“That’s great it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane, Lenny Bruce is not afraid…”

Jesus, the lyrics to that song are chillingly prescient given today’s climate. Michael Stipe knew what was coming.

You pair that with the destructive nihilism of Welcome to the Jungle and Johnny Cash reimagining Hurt into an epilogue and you are starting to cook with some real Gen X gas.  

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30710

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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

I can't put any data to it, but I actually think Covid has killed off a statistically significant portion of the GOP voter base, and it's effecting outcomes at the polls. 

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/25/1189939229/covid-deaths-democrats-republicans-gap-study

Quote

More specifically, the researchers say, their adjusted analysis found that "the excess death rate among Republican voters was 43% higher than the excess death rate among Democratic voters" after vaccine eligibility was opened.

 

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6594

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Just now, Snake Diggity said:

Port strike and Iran attacking Israel are not good developments for Harris.

Can anyone else hear Trump yelling that this would have never happened if he was president.  He would have cut a deal with the port workers, a great deal, probably the best in history for both sides.  Same with Iran, Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas.  They would all be close friends now if Trump was president.  He would probably also say we wouldn’t have hurricanes anymore if you would just vote for him.  Millions of people will hear this and say, yeah that makes sense to me, he has my vote.  

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

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Just now, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Can anyone else hear Trump yelling that this would have never happened if he was president.  He would have cut a deal with the port workers, a great deal, probably the best in history for both sides.  Same with Iran, Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas.  They would all be close friends now if Trump was president.  He would probably also say we wouldn’t have hurricanes anymore if you would just vote for him.  Millions of people will hear this and say, yeah that makes sense to me, he has my vote.  

This is me acting like a conspiracy nut, but I actually think Trump is the cause of both events.  The head of the port workers union is a Trumper.  And Netanyahu almost certainly prefers Trump to Harris, if for no other reason than he knows Trump is completely ineffectual and will do nothing to push back on his agenda.

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 34102

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shit, I guess I never looked it up before. Carter for me too. Here's what he did on the day of my birth:
November 27 – President Carter attends the National League of Cities' 1978 Congress of Cities in Monsanto Hall at the Cervantes Convention Center during the morning.[276]
November 27 – President Carter attends a briefing on the budget for the board of directors of the National League of Cities in Room 122 at the Cervantes Convention Center in St. Louis, Missouri, delivering remarks on the evolution of the relationship between the administration and members of the board and answering questions from those in attendance.[277]
November 27 – President Carter receives the Family Unity Award at the Mormon Tabernacle in Salt Lake City, Utah and delivers remarks.[278]
November 27 – President Carter issues a statement on the assassinations of San Francisco Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk.[279]
November 27 – In a statement, President Carter says he has been asked by Governor of Utah Scott M. Matheson "to review the findings of earlier Federal studies in Utah on the effects of exposure to radioactive particles on health and to determine whether or not a more comprehensive study is indicated."[280]
November 27 – President Carter announces the appointment of nine individuals for membership on the American Battle Monuments Commission.[281]

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30710

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1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

The entire history of the U.S. in four presidents.

WHHarrison: 1173-1841

Grover Cleveland 1837-1908

LBJ: 1908-1973.

Any of the living presidents.  Carter: 1924-present, Obama, Clinton, Biden, GWB. or wood.

Damn. Harrison was old. 

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 11062

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9 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

The entire history of the U.S. in four presidents.

WHHarrison: 1773-1841

Grover Cleveland 1837-1908

LBJ: 1908-1973.

Any of the living presidents.  Carter: 1924-present, Obama, Clinton, Biden, GWB. or wood.

Ironic

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