2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Underdog 29165]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

Don’t forget signing up for disability and welfare benefits which are both notoriously easy to get and generous. 
 

 

And free $10k Mastercard waiting for them as well. 

[Biff Tannen 46160]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

FL gets called pretty quickly on election night, regardless of outcome. So if we see a suburbs continue to shift left in places like Orlando and Tampa and Miami shift left, it bodes well for the rest of the night.

Of course, the longer they can’t call Florida (even if it’s eventually a Trump win, the better everyone should feel. He won FL by 3.3 and it was called at 11:30pm

FL always starts R and then we all sit and watch as Miami-Dade votes keep trickling in and it just doesn't quite make it turn blue.  Hoping this year is different, but expectations are low, because Florida.

[Js1 87175]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

FL always starts R and then we all sit and watch as Miami-Dade votes keep trickling in and it just doesn't quite make it turn blue.  Hoping this year is different, but expectations are low, because Florida.

I’m not expecting a win there. That would generally mean she decimated him and this is 2008 

But less than 3.3 would be good. Downballot implications, including FL-Sen and FL-13 (Anna Paulina Luna)

Edited October 4 by Js1

[Hiphopopotamos 21189]

These are nice down-ballot trends. 
 

 

[The Dog 44854]

and a more serious point by Wasserman:

 

[Huckleberry 34587]

23 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Ok, this is like the 4th or 5th screen grab lately with an absolutely insane shit scrolling across the bottom line.  Are these all jokes?  Or are they real life?  Because holy fuck if they are real.

Seriously?

[LCHorn 2751]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

and a more serious point by Wasserman:

 

I don’t have time to try to corroborate Wasserman’s data, but is he suggesting that 800k Floridians who were registered Dems have left Florida or otherwise not registered for this election?  That doesn’t pass the smell test.  

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1314]

Just now, LCHorn said:

I don’t have time to try to corroborate Wasserman’s data, but is he suggesting that 800k Floridians who were registered Dems have left Florida or otherwise not registered for this election?  That doesn’t pass the smell test.  

You only have to register once. These are new Florida voters.

[Brisketexan 106878]

3 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

While you are correct, all of that happened this last time and he still won without even debating the field.

It's not the BMD's and the party.  It's the voters.  

THIS.  @atomheartbevo, it's this.  It doesn't matter what the BMDs, or the old-school Republicans want.  It matters 0.0%.

The GQP cannot win national elections without not just MAGA votes, but MOTIVATED MAGA votes.  If they all go back into their trailers and holes, the GQP is fucked.  No matter how much money they spend, no matter how much free ice cream and recess every day they promise, without MAGA, they're fucked.

2 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

There's really no better evidence that people are voting against their interest than major national unions failing to endorse Harris.

 

2 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

They believe that they selflessly put the country first by voting Trump who will restore the republic to the greatness of unchallengable white man rule. He'll save us from the immigrants: these dangerous motherfuckers.

The boy is smiling because he can't hardly wait to sell the ten pounds of fentanyl they have hiding in their asses so they can buy a nice four bedroom house in the 'burbs after they kill the current residents and eat their pets. 

And fucking this.  People will pass up a store full of stuff that helps them to grab the one janky-ass policy from the alley behind the store that HURTS someone else.  "The cruelty tells you it's working!"  It's the worst of human nature, and Trump, MAGA, and he entire GQP have tapped into it.  It is their lifeblood at this point.  Without promises to hurt other people for you, they have nothing.

[4th&Five 41987]

22 minutes ago, Red Five said:

It will be funny to watch Dotard scream again about how he supposedly won an election that he lost by 70 EVs and 7-8 million votes. Because of all the obvious fraud everywhere that no one can even identify, much less prove.

Yeah, hilarious. 

[chainsaw 10283]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

and a more serious point by Wasserman:

 

How is it there are fewer RVs in 2024 than in 2020?

https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

Also, remember FL is a closed primary state. Party affiliation may not matter as much.

[LCHorn 2751]

2 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

You only have to register once. These are new Florida voters.

Google says Fl population is 22m.  You think 13.7m of them are new Florida voters?

[Pato del Muerto 53462]

3 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

You only have to register once. These are new Florida voters.

The population of Florida is 23 million.  I don’t think these numbers can represent only new registrations, even if new means since the 2020 election. 

[Dahobbs 18306]

4 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

You only have to register once. These are new Florida voters.

Those can't be new registrations. That would be over half the population of the state. Those numbers don't make sense unless Florida simply removed 700k democratic voters from the rolls. 

Edited October 4 by Dahobbs

[Bateshorn 9989]

19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I’m not expecting a win there. That would generally mean she decimated him and this is 2008 

But less than 3.3 would be good. Downballot implications, including FL-Sen and FL-13 (Anna Paulina Luna)

 

9 minutes ago, The Dog said:

and a more serious point by Wasserman:

 

Putting aside the registration stuff, with Florida, you want to watch how the Villages come in, then a bit later, how Miami Dade looks. Dems aren't winning Florida, but we knew in 2020 by 9 pm we were in for a long night and it wasn't going to be a Biden nationwide romp. Same thing this time: If Wasserman and Coked Up Kornacki (TM) are talking about the Dems outperforming, its going to be a good night.  If they are talking about Harris underperforming Biden, then everyone may need to freshen up their passports. 

[royiv 9778]

6 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I don’t have time to try to corroborate Wasserman’s data, but is he suggesting that 800k Floridians who were registered Dems have left Florida or otherwise not registered for this election?  That doesn’t pass the smell test.  

DeSantis putting in work to purge those voter rolls.

[Js1 87175]

First off, there’s no data to differentiate new registrations or switched registrations.

Secondly, it’s still about persuasion. Go back and look at the voting data for the Jax mayoral race. Looked like a GOP blowout but the Dem won. But persuasion has helped the Dems a lot the last few cycles 

Edited October 4 by Js1

[Dahobbs 18306]

1 minute ago, royiv said:

DeSantis putting in work to purge those voter rolls.

That should be a huge fucking story of DeSantis just up and suddenly purged 700k democratic voters. Like riots in the streets huge. The full table shows the change was largely between 2022 and 2023. I think something else is going on here. 

[royiv 9778]

1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

CRAPers. I fly with one every trip. Conservative Republican Airline Pilots. Most are ex air force or navy and took an oath to defend the constitution while also supporting a Russian asset and traitor.

That baboon won't be running. Y'all act like he's not going to prison or house arrest for life.

I can’t imagine being locked in a cockpit with those guys for hours on end. Godspeed to you for getting your passengers to their destination safely without choking out your copilot.

[chainsaw 10283]

I'll paste the FL SOS data here:

Quote

Voter Registration - By Party Affiliation

Webpage last updated: September 10, 2024.

Totals reflect the number of active registered voters in the State of Florida.

Data as of August 31, 2024.

Year	Republican Party of Florida	Florida Democratic Party	Minor Parties	No Party Affiliation	Total
2024	5,385,554	4,359,354	390,220	3,544,576	13,679,704

2023	5,141,848	4,362,147	317,607	3,528,807	13,350,409
2022	5,312,122	4,928,168	263,790	4,032,731	14,536,811
2021	5,123,799	5,080,697	253,843	3,829,372	14,287,711
2020	5,218,739	5,315,954	231,246	3,799,799	14,565,738
2019	4,761,405	4,986,520	147,546	3,641,359	13,536,830
2018	4,718,720	4,975,895	113,489	3,588,518	13,396,622
2017	4,544,708	4,807,950	65,526	3,449,005	12,867,189

 

[GopherRock 1773]

28 minutes ago, Js1 said:

FL gets called pretty quickly on election night, regardless of outcome. So if we see a suburbs continue to shift left in places like Orlando and Tampa and Miami shift left, it bodes well for the rest of the night.

Of course, the longer they can’t call Florida (even if it’s eventually a Trump win, the better everyone should feel. He won FL by 3.3 and it was called at 11:30pm

The abortion referendum will say more about Florida than Trump. Agree that the later it gets before Florida gets called, the better everyone is going to feel. 

[SydneyCarton 49477]

48 minutes ago, tx ind said:

If we get NC and PA called early the shitposting coming from Truth Social will be epic

PA wil never be called early because they don’t start counting mail in ballots until after polls close. 

10 minutes ago, royiv said:

I can’t imagine being locked in a cockpit with those guys for hours on end. Godspeed to you for getting your passengers to their destination safely without choking out your copilot.

He can still choke out a co pilot and get the people safely to their destination. 

Also, someone is taking a poll seriously from a polling outfit called Trump University?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13726]

Bidenomics looks to be working well. 16.6m jobs created under his watch, whereas Trump had a -2.9m. Note: Trump had 3 more months at this point.

 

[immamac 44325]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

PA wil never be called early because they don’t start counting mail in ballots until after polls close. 

He can still choke out a co pilot and get the people safely to their destination. 

What is kamamala wins without even needing the mail ins. 

[SydneyCarton 49477]

Just now, immamac said:

What is kamamala wins without even needing the mail ins. 

That would defy literally every poll that has been taken to date. They’d all have to have been off by orders of magnitude for them to be able to call it early without the million plus mail in ballots. Even if the pollsters are all herding, that seems…pretty fucking unlikely. 
 

Like I’m about to fuck Sydney Sweeney unlikely. 

[Js1 87175]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

PA wil never be called early because they don’t start counting mail in ballots until after polls close. 

Reminder - polling shows the in-person/mail split in 2024 will be closer to 75/25 overall, like 2022, which had Fetterman called the winner a little after midnight CT.  It will not be like 2020, which dragged for quite a while. 

If it is a 2020-style close race, it could drag into Wednesday, but the volume of mail will not the same as 2020.  If Kamala wins by 3-5, it likely could be called on Election Night (or just past the day turning)

Edited October 4 by Js1

[SydneyCarton 49477]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Reminder - polling shows the in-person/mail split in 2024 will be closer to 75/25 overall, like 2022, which had Fetterman called the winner a little after midnight CT.  It will not be like 2020, which dragged for quite a while. 

If it is a 2020-style close race, it could drag into Wednesday, but the volume of mail will not the same as 2020.  If Kamala wins by 3-5, it likely could be called on Election Night (or just past the day turning)

I think turnout compared to fetterman in an off year will make a just after midnight call unlikely, even if everything else is similar. 
 

 

[immamac 44325]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That would defy literally every poll that has been taken to date. They’d all have to have been off by orders of magnitude for them to be able to call it early without the million plus mail in ballots. Even if the pollsters are all herding, that seems…pretty fucking unlikely. 
 

Like I’m about to fuck Sydney Sweeney unlikely. 

The pollsters have 0 idea what turnout will be. 

[HenryJames 67326]

8 minutes ago, immamac said:

What is kamamala wins without even needing the mail ins. 

 

[SydneyCarton 49477]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

The pollsters have 0 idea what turnout will be. 

I think they know it’s going to be big, like we do. Which also favors delays, polls staying open later, etc. which I think also delays the state being called. 

Edited October 4 by SydneyCarton

[Huckleberry 34587]

10 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

althwbststw

 

[Js1 87175]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I think turnout compared to fetterman in an off year will make a just after midnight call unlikely, even if everything else is similar. 
 

 

I'm just telling you - if 3/4ths of the voting will be in-person this year, compared to mail, the mail will count a lot fucking faster. 

It was 2.6m mail-in ballots returned in 2020 (out of 3m requested) - 40% of the total votes.  If 7m people vote again and only 1/4 of them vote by mail, there's only 1.75m mail-in ballots to count.  2022 was just under 1.2m mail ballots to count and they had a winner declared on Election Night

[dcbc 14644]

15 hours ago, F250 said:

Trump controls the MAGA mob, he isn't going anywhere. The GOP will have to live with Trump.

It's like when that Sports Store owner handed over control to Tony in the Sopranos.

[dcbc 14644]

8 hours ago, Xminus6 said:

I fucking hope he does. He’s going to drain the Republican Party of all life and money until he dies. He’ll be holding smaller and smaller “rallies” in hotel conference rooms rambling about random old movies. I want his life to end as pitifully and insignificantly as possible.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20911]

 

 

 

[chainsaw 10283]

2 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

 

 

 

AesPolitics1 should probably learn to distinguish azgenxdad69 from the Kamala Harris campaign.

[Red Five 41715]

It is a good ad though.

They should make one that is 60 seconds of Dotard saying the most ridiculous, hateful things, and end it with “Seriously America? wtf.”

[yoladu 4190]

4 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Go fuck yourselves, Firefighters.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/fire-fighters-union-declines-presidential-endorsement-00182372

Vice President Kamala Harris suffered a blow Thursday as the union representing more than 300,000 career firefighters and emergency responders declined to make a presidential endorsement, two weeks after the International Brotherhood of Teamsters made a similar decision.

Leaders of the International Association of Fire Fighters gathered this week and determined “by a margin of 1.2%” against picking a candidate, according to General President Edward Kelly.

Kamala got the Foo Fighters endorsement though, right?

[hookem2010 2700]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/obama-blitz-campaign-trail-harris-final-weeks-campaign/story?id=114491830&cid=social_twitter_abcn

Former President Barack Obama will hit the campaign trail for Vice President Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz starting next Thursday, Oct. 10, through election day, according to a senior campaign official.

The first stop will be in Pennsylvania in the Pittsburgh area before Obama embarks on a campaign blitz across the battleground states in the final 27 days.

He's got quite the hole to dig himself out of in my eyes. After all, he got us into this mess. Elected While Black, then got all uppity and made fun of a thin-skinned, "rich", white man.

[NAVY 6969]

Florida of all places should be voting blue so they can keep impregnating each others wives. Hell, same for Texas 

[4th&Five 41987]

 

[SKJ 1317]

1 hour ago, Underdog said:

And free $10k Mastercard waiting for them as well. 

I don't think that immigrants want Mastercards...

[4th&Five 41987]

lulz

siap

[Gatorubet 30711]

6 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

He's got quite the hole to dig himself out of in my eyes. After all, he got us into this mess. Elected While Black, then got all uppity and made fun of a thin-skinned, "rich", white man.

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34103]

7 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

lulz

siap

he's a fucking titty baby. the fact that he is a former president is something I don't think I'll ever fully wrap my mind around

[Underdog 29165]

9 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

God: I will spare Donald J Trump from that sniper today. 
 

Jesus: what about the Fireman?

God: He gone.

[Red Five 41715]

lulz

siap

Pretty funny actually, if that is what he was going for.

[Gatorubet 30711]

13 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

lulz

siap

I’m just glad he didn’t substitute Nickelback for the Boss.  He might’ve gained votes.

[Js1 87175]

 

[HenryJames 67326]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

 

Every text from @SydneyCarton.