2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[henrygandorf 29225]

9 minutes ago, Pancho said:

lots of trumpers on twitter talking about the draft as the perfect "gotcha" answer to that question.

that's where we are in this process. abortion is war. apparently. not sure it's the metaphor they want to drag into this.

[South Austin 53223]

7 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Not that it matters, but she’s crushing this 60mins interview 

“Harris with too much policy detail and charisma during 60 Minutes interview, campaign in tailspin.” New York Times

[TwiceHorn 32079]

19 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I do not understand the Jewish customs- if he’s not Jewish why is he wearing a yarmulke?

No one goes in a temple with their head uncovered.  

[HenryJames 67357]

15 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

[safe sex 12007]

45 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Pretty common to refer to a former POTUS as "President so and so".

Sure, but his Toadies will refer to him as THE President

[Surly Bevo 25739]

LOL, The Draft.

Something that hasn't been employed since before anybody younger than 52 was alive.  

 

[Francisco 2.0 32590]

 

 

 

[4th&Five 42005]

 

[Celery Man 21098]

The conditioned political skepticism I have grown to live with over the past hundred years since 2016 has taught me not to believe my lying feelings or any glimmer of hope about anything but I do want to comment - living in NC, apart from the occasional crazy person house (house on a busy road with a giant banner of post assassination attempt fist raising trump, clearly deranged lunatic near the preschool with a combined america/israel flag on a post and maga shit everywhere) GOP people have seemingly shut the fuck up. Especially post nazi lt governor, and past that I've seen a lot of mostly apolitical or even "I would guess that this person is conservative" people on facebook being mad about the lies about Western NC. I'm really hoping all of this bullshit has an impact in this state. At least to stop the lunatics who they are trying to put in charge of the schools.

[4th&Five 42005]

 

[Js1 87182]

25 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Not that it matters, but she’s crushing this 60mins interview 

She is but god damn he was just spewing GOP talking points. 

No one in Congress supports your tax raises for billionaires

Why did you lose control of the border and take so long to do anything 

Do you think millions of people are racists because they support Trump

 

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Polymarket has Trump at 53% to win? I don't get it.

What new voters has he gained? Maybe young Latinos. The machismo bit seems to appeal to a lot of them. And they feel more native than ever. Many don't speak Spanish today. I'm surprised how the 'close the border' appeals to many Latinos. And Catholic I guess.

[Js1 87182]

1 minute ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Polymarket

[Pancho 46307]

2 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Polymarket has Trump at 53% to win? I don't get it.

What new voters has he gained? Maybe young Latinos. The machismo bit seems to appeal to a lot of them. And they feel more native than ever. Many don't speak Spanish today. I'm surprised how the 'close the border' appeals to many Latinos. And Catholic I guess.

 

They are just betting based on what Elmo is saying, is that the website? 

I still don’t get the Latinos who came here when they were young or their parents had to come over (legally or illegally in both cases) who are vehemently against any other Latinos coming over. I’m like “but didn’t you do the same thing?” I think @Brisketexan has explained this before why some feel that way

[SizzleChest 8314]

24 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

lots of trumpers on twitter talking about the draft as the perfect "gotcha" answer to that question.

that's where we are in this process. abortion is war. apparently. not sure it's the metaphor they want to drag into this.

It's the ultimate of false equivalencies, so of course they are running with it.  And, of course, Mr. Smells like diarrhea soup got around that "law" with his fake bone spurs.  Well done, Trumpers.  Well done.

[Slacks 7060]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

 

They are just betting based on what Elmo is saying, is that the website? 

I still don’t get the Latinos who came here when they were young or their parents had to come over (legally or illegally in both cases) who are vehemently against any other Latinos coming over. I’m like “but didn’t you do the same thing?” I think @Brisketexan has explained this before why some feel that way

You sounds light skinned. /s

[safe sex 12007]

And just as I am with abortion, I'm very much pro-choice when it comes to military service. I would imagine most people are

[Chewbacca 7830]

9 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Polymarket has Trump at 53% to win? I don't get it.

What new voters has he gained? Maybe young Latinos. The machismo bit seems to appeal to a lot of them. And they feel more native than ever. Many don't speak Spanish today. I'm surprised how the 'close the border' appeals to many Latinos. And Catholic I guess.

Peter Thiel wants Trump to win?  No way!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13730]

3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I'm sure Fox News would be cool with George Soros doing the same.

Does someone really have to say the reason why it’s different with Soros? We can speak about it in hushed tones in public or out loud at the country club.

[Horndog 2295]

47 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

lots of trumpers on twitter talking about the draft as the perfect "gotcha" answer to that question.

There is no draft. The last one was in 1972. There is a registration requirement but no draft. 

And when there was a draft there were all sorts of exemptions, like being a conscientious objector or having bone spurs.

[shakahorn 1656]

43 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

LOL, The Draft.

Something that hasn't been employed since before anybody younger than 52 was alive.  

 

And never applied to anyone under 70.  And given the changes with respect to women’s roles in the military since then, could include women if ever reinstated.

[Sawbonz 28220]

Once again too slow

 

Edited October 8 by Sawbonz

[bluto 4996]

I dig the draft gotcha with the implied unfairness to men, bc if there’s one thing twitter bros are in favor of it’s women in the military

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

When was the last time a man was actually drafted?  1975 or something?

[Js1 87182]

Lesley Stahl saying tonight that whoever wins will be a wartime president because of Ukraine and Israel. Two places where US troops are not deployed and the CiC is not making wartime decisions 

[Horndog 2295]

6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

When was the last time a man was actually drafted?  1975 or something?

1973. https://www.sss.gov/history-and-records/induction-statistics/

['stache 22133]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Don't forget CFB.

Edit: I thought it was a joke about the NFL draft, lol. DERP.

Edited October 8 by 'stache

[Francisco 2.0 32590]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/60-minutes-brings-the-receipts-on-trumps-interview-about-face?ref=home?ref=home

 

Quote

CBS gave further detail Monday on Donald Trump’s decision to bail on a customary pre-election interview with the investigative newsmagazine program 60 Minutes, alleging that the former president pulled out of the sit-down over an apparent dispute about the show’s fact-checking policies.

Before airing a separate sit-down with Vice President Kamala Harris, the network contradicted the version of events given by Trump’s side.

 

 

Quote

The network not only agreed to interview Trump this past Thursday at Mar-a-Lago, but also to meet him in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday. According to CBS, Trump communications director Steven Cheung sent a text on Sept. 9 reading, “I’m working with our advance team to see logistically if Butler would work in addition to the sit down.”

Cheung followed up days later saying “the president said yes,” CBS said.

 

 

Quote

After Trump backed out the following week, the Trump campaign complainedthat the interview would be fact-checked. Trump also demanded an apology from CBS correspondent Leslie Stahl, claiming she said something that she didn’t say during their 2020 interview, which he walked out of.

Harris, when asked about Trump’s refusal to be interviewed on 60 Minutes, told viewers to instead watch his rallies to understand what he’s all about.

 

 

 

Quote

“If he is not going to give your viewers the ability to have a meaningful, thoughtful conversation, question and answer with you, then watch his rallies. You’re going to hear conversations that are about himself and all of his personal grievances,” Harris said.

“And what you will not hear is anything about you, the listener. You will not hear about how he is going to try to bring the country together, find common ground. And, Bill, that is why I believe in my soul and heart, the American people are ready to turn the page.”

 

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

44 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Peter Thiel wants Trump to win?  No way!

If betting markets are way off can't we all make a lot of money? I see it around 50/50 on most websites unless I'm missing something.

I'm most worried about oil prices spiking due to the Middle East conflict or Americans believing tax dollars will flow into another war.

And why is Dick Cheney in some Kamala ads? Who is this appealing to? Pretty sure everyone thinks he's an evil POS.

[4th&Five 42005]

Stupid mofo

 

[TexEx15 17947]

Very well said.

[Shut up Lou Holtz 2114]

5 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Stupid mofo

 

Fucking mind bottling. He’s never heard of a cat 5 hurricane… the best people 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 hour ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Polymarket has Trump at 53% to win? I don't get it.

What new voters has he gained? Maybe young Latinos. The machismo bit seems to appeal to a lot of them. And they feel more native than ever. Many don't speak Spanish today. I'm surprised how the 'close the border' appeals to many Latinos. And Catholic I guess.

Nate makes good points re:Polymarket. 
 

 

 

 

[Ghost of LL 15698]

3 hours ago, South Austin said:

I bet that hurt for him to say.

He's made the calculation that he'd prefer to run against Harris in 2028 than try to run as a Republican after a second Trump term.

He's not wrong.  And he won't be the last one to make that calculation.  I guarantee you we'll see other high Republican officeholders who might have presidential aspirations subtly undermine Trump over the next 29 days.

[Slacks 7060]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Nate makes good points re:Polymarket. 
 

 

 

 

Trunk has never win the popular vote, so why would an EC win necessarily correlate to a Popular win? 

[South Austin 53223]

1 minute ago, Slacks said:

Trunk has never win the popular vote

 

[Slacks 7060]

6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

He's made the calculation that he'd prefer to run against Harris in 2028 than try to run as a Republican after a second Trump term.

He's not wrong.  And he won't be the last one to make that calculation.  I guarantee you we'll see other high Republican officeholders who might have presidential aspirations subtly undermine Trump over the next 29 days.

Nah. Because if he isn't dead or in jail, they know he'll be a problem barker.

[Pato del Muerto 53498]

11 minutes ago, Shut up Lou Holtz said:

Fucking mind bottling. He’s never heard of a cat 5 hurricane… the best people 

Let’s be fair here- he said he’s never heard of a cat 5 coming onto land.   I can’t just think of one off hand that has, but then again I’m not making declarative statements about it because it’s probably happened with Hugo or Andrew or some other one. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Nate makes good points re:Polymarket. 
 

 

 

 

Never mind.  Never Read the Replies, but I did read the replies and they convinced me Nate’s theory doesn’t stand to too much scrutiny.  One, predictit has similar numbers but whales don’t exist because of $850 price cap and two the markets basically mirror the same perceived jump in PA for Trump, which isn’t really a statement on overall popular vote.  

Edited October 8 by BehoId, The Underminer!

[ConferenceRoom 6214]

You talk too much. 

[Francisco 2.0 32590]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Let’s be fair here- he said he’s never heard of a cat 5 coming onto land.   I can’t just think of one off hand that has, but then again I’m not making declarative statements about it because it’s probably happened with Hugo or Andrew or some other one. 

 

Camille, 1969

Andrew, 1992

Michael, 2018

[Js1 87182]

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the same perceived jump in PA for Trump

Based on….what? Did some crappy GOP firm put out a poll or are they still rolling with “PA polls are underestimating Trump bc they don’t poll the Amish”

I saw the new polling conspiracy is they poll on Sundays which means all the good republicans who go to church don’t get counted 

[Chuckie Finster 23074]

Anytime anyone wants you to believe these betting markets are worth worrying about, please note that the current most likely scenario according to those users is a GOP electoral college win of 65-104 votes.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8077/What-will-be-the-Electoral-College-margin-in-the-2024-presidential-election

Edited October 8 by Chuckie Finster

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19305]

8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Let’s be fair here- he said he’s never heard of a cat 5 coming onto land.   I can’t just think of one off hand that has, but then again I’m not making declarative statements about it because it’s probably happened with Hugo or Andrew or some other one. 

 

2 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

Camille, 1969

Andrew, 1992

Michael, 2018

1935 Labor Day Hurricane

And these 42 have reached Category 5.  Trump is an idiot. Water is wet.

Here are the names of the estimated 42 tropical cyclones that have reached Category 5 intensity since 1924:

• "Cuba" - 1924
• "San Felipe II Okeechobee" - 1928
• "Bahamas" - 1932
• "Cuba" - 1932
• "Cuba-Brownsville" - 1933
• "Tampico" - 1933
• "Labor Day" - 1935 
• "New England" - 1938
• "Great Atlantic" - 1944 
• Carol - 1953
• Janet - 1955
• Esther - 1961
• Hattie - 1961
• Inez - 1966
• Beulah - 1967
• Camille - 1969
• Edith - 1971
• Anita - 1977
• David - 1979
• Allen - 1980
• Gilbert - 1988
• Hugo - 1989
• Andrew - 1992
• Mitch - 1998
• Isabel - 2003
• Ivan - 2004
• Emily - 2005 
• Katrina - 2005
• Rita - 2005
• Wilma - 2005
• Dean - 2007
• Felix - 2007
• Matthew - 2016
• Irma - 2017
• Maria - 2017
• Michael - 2018
• Dorian - 2019
• Lorenzo - 2019
• Ian - 2022
• Lee - 2023
• Beryl - 2024
• Milton - 2024

[The Dog 44860]

LOL

 

[Pato del Muerto 53498]

And I think Galveston 1900 is presumed to have been one, before the rating system was implemented. 

[Js1 87182]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

LOL

 

Don’t worry. He’s going to Aurora, Colorado the day before that. I’m sure that’s gonna go well ( @Chewbacca)

[SizzleChest 8314]

21 minutes ago, Slacks said:

Trunk has never win the popular vote

[Nice Guy Eddie 13730]

32 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Nate makes good points re:Polymarket. 
 

 

 

 

Makes sense to me that relatively small betting pools could be manipulated by large bettors. Say they're sitting on a bunch of Trump bets already. Push some more money into Trump hoping to influence the market. The crowd follows. Dump all of your bets. Maybe you break even on the newer bets but your rake with the others.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13730]

27 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Let’s be fair here- he said he’s never heard of a cat 5 coming onto land.   I can’t just think of one off hand that has, but then again I’m not making declarative statements about it because it’s probably happened with Hugo or Andrew or some other one. 

Isn't the current consensus is that it won't be a cat 5 when hitting Florida on Wednesday?