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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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25 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Not that it matters, but she’s crushing this 60mins interview 

She is but god damn he was just spewing GOP talking points. 

No one in Congress supports your tax raises for billionaires

Why did you lose control of the border and take so long to do anything 

Do you think millions of people are racists because they support Trump

 

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Polymarket has Trump at 53% to win? I don't get it.

What new voters has he gained? Maybe young Latinos. The machismo bit seems to appeal to a lot of them. And they feel more native than ever. Many don't speak Spanish today. I'm surprised how the 'close the border' appeals to many Latinos. And Catholic I guess.

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2 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Polymarket has Trump at 53% to win? I don't get it.

What new voters has he gained? Maybe young Latinos. The machismo bit seems to appeal to a lot of them. And they feel more native than ever. Many don't speak Spanish today. I'm surprised how the 'close the border' appeals to many Latinos. And Catholic I guess.

 

They are just betting based on what Elmo is saying, is that the website? 

I still don’t get the Latinos who came here when they were young or their parents had to come over (legally or illegally in both cases) who are vehemently against any other Latinos coming over. I’m like “but didn’t you do the same thing?” I think @Brisketexan has explained this before why some feel that way

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24 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

lots of trumpers on twitter talking about the draft as the perfect "gotcha" answer to that question.

that's where we are in this process. abortion is war. apparently. not sure it's the metaphor they want to drag into this.

It's the ultimate of false equivalencies, so of course they are running with it.  And, of course, Mr. Smells like diarrhea soup got around that "law" with his fake bone spurs.  Well done, Trumpers.  Well done.

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1 minute ago, Pancho said:

 

They are just betting based on what Elmo is saying, is that the website? 

I still don’t get the Latinos who came here when they were young or their parents had to come over (legally or illegally in both cases) who are vehemently against any other Latinos coming over. I’m like “but didn’t you do the same thing?” I think @Brisketexan has explained this before why some feel that way

You sounds light skinned. /s

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9 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Polymarket has Trump at 53% to win? I don't get it.

What new voters has he gained? Maybe young Latinos. The machismo bit seems to appeal to a lot of them. And they feel more native than ever. Many don't speak Spanish today. I'm surprised how the 'close the border' appeals to many Latinos. And Catholic I guess.

Peter Thiel wants Trump to win?  No way!

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43 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

LOL, The Draft.

Something that hasn't been employed since before anybody younger than 52 was alive.  

 

Jon Hamm Yes GIF

And never applied to anyone under 70.  And given the changes with respect to women’s roles in the military since then, could include women if ever reinstated.

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Lesley Stahl saying tonight that whoever wins will be a wartime president because of Ukraine and Israel. Two places where US troops are not deployed and the CiC is not making wartime decisions 

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44 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Peter Thiel wants Trump to win?  No way!

If betting markets are way off can't we all make a lot of money? I see it around 50/50 on most websites unless I'm missing something.

I'm most worried about oil prices spiking due to the Middle East conflict or Americans believing tax dollars will flow into another war.

And why is Dick Cheney in some Kamala ads? Who is this appealing to? Pretty sure everyone thinks he's an evil POS.

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1 hour ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Polymarket has Trump at 53% to win? I don't get it.

What new voters has he gained? Maybe young Latinos. The machismo bit seems to appeal to a lot of them. And they feel more native than ever. Many don't speak Spanish today. I'm surprised how the 'close the border' appeals to many Latinos. And Catholic I guess.

Nate makes good points re:Polymarket. 
 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, South Austin said:

I bet that hurt for him to say.

He's made the calculation that he'd prefer to run against Harris in 2028 than try to run as a Republican after a second Trump term.

He's not wrong.  And he won't be the last one to make that calculation.  I guarantee you we'll see other high Republican officeholders who might have presidential aspirations subtly undermine Trump over the next 29 days.

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6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

He's made the calculation that he'd prefer to run against Harris in 2028 than try to run as a Republican after a second Trump term.

He's not wrong.  And he won't be the last one to make that calculation.  I guarantee you we'll see other high Republican officeholders who might have presidential aspirations subtly undermine Trump over the next 29 days.

Nah. Because if he isn't dead or in jail, they know he'll be a problem barker.

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11 minutes ago, Shut up Lou Holtz said:

Fucking mind bottling. He’s never heard of a cat 5 hurricane… the best people 

Let’s be fair here- he said he’s never heard of a cat 5 coming onto land.   I can’t just think of one off hand that has, but then again I’m not making declarative statements about it because it’s probably happened with Hugo or Andrew or some other one. 

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10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Nate makes good points re:Polymarket. 
 

 

 

 

Never mind.  Never Read the Replies, but I did read the replies and they convinced me Nate’s theory doesn’t stand to too much scrutiny.  One, predictit has similar numbers but whales don’t exist because of $850 price cap and two the markets basically mirror the same perceived jump in PA for Trump, which isn’t really a statement on overall popular vote.  

Edited by BehoId, The Underminer!
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5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Let’s be fair here- he said he’s never heard of a cat 5 coming onto land.   I can’t just think of one off hand that has, but then again I’m not making declarative statements about it because it’s probably happened with Hugo or Andrew or some other one

 

Camille, 1969

Andrew, 1992

Michael, 2018

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5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the same perceived jump in PA for Trump

Based on….what? Did some crappy GOP firm put out a poll or are they still rolling with “PA polls are underestimating Trump bc they don’t poll the Amish”

I saw the new polling conspiracy is they poll on Sundays which means all the good republicans who go to church don’t get counted 

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Anytime anyone wants you to believe these betting markets are worth worrying about, please note that the current most likely scenario according to those users is a GOP electoral college win of 65-104 votes.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8077/What-will-be-the-Electoral-College-margin-in-the-2024-presidential-election

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8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Let’s be fair here- he said he’s never heard of a cat 5 coming onto land.   I can’t just think of one off hand that has, but then again I’m not making declarative statements about it because it’s probably happened with Hugo or Andrew or some other one. 

 

2 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

Camille, 1969

Andrew, 1992

Michael, 2018

1935 Labor Day Hurricane

And these 42 have reached Category 5.  Trump is an idiot. Water is wet.

Here are the names of the estimated 42 tropical cyclones that have reached Category 5 intensity since 1924:

  • "Cuba" - 1924
  • "San Felipe II Okeechobee" - 1928
  • "Bahamas" - 1932
  • "Cuba" - 1932
  • "Cuba-Brownsville" - 1933
  • "Tampico" - 1933
  • "Labor Day" - 1935 
  • "New England" - 1938
  • "Great Atlantic" - 1944 
  • Carol - 1953
  • Janet - 1955
  • Esther - 1961
  • Hattie - 1961
  • Inez - 1966
  • Beulah - 1967
  • Camille - 1969
  • Edith - 1971
  • Anita - 1977
  • David - 1979
  • Allen - 1980
  • Gilbert - 1988
  • Hugo - 1989
  • Andrew - 1992
  • Mitch - 1998
  • Isabel - 2003
  • Ivan - 2004
  • Emily - 2005 
  • Katrina - 2005
  • Rita - 2005
  • Wilma - 2005
  • Dean - 2007
  • Felix - 2007
  • Matthew - 2016
  • Irma - 2017
  • Maria - 2017
  • Michael - 2018
  • Dorian - 2019
  • Lorenzo - 2019
  • Ian - 2022
  • Lee - 2023
  • Beryl - 2024
  • Milton - 2024
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32 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Nate makes good points re:Polymarket. 
 

 

 

 

Makes sense to me that relatively small betting pools could be manipulated by large bettors. Say they're sitting on a bunch of Trump bets already. Push some more money into Trump hoping to influence the market. The crowd follows. Dump all of your bets. Maybe you break even on the newer bets but your rake with the others.

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27 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Let’s be fair here- he said he’s never heard of a cat 5 coming onto land.   I can’t just think of one off hand that has, but then again I’m not making declarative statements about it because it’s probably happened with Hugo or Andrew or some other one. 

Isn't the current consensus is that it won't be a cat 5 when hitting Florida on Wednesday? 

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