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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7757

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If betting markets are way off can't we all make a lot of money? I see it around 50/50 on most websites unless I'm missing something.
I'm most worried about oil prices spiking due to the Middle East conflict or Americans believing tax dollars will flow into another war.
And why is Dick Cheney in some Kamala ads? Who is this appealing to? Pretty sure everyone thinks he's an evil POS.
Yeah. When being markets are off, you can win a lot of money.
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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7757

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Don’t worry. He’s going to Aurora, Colorado the day before that. I’m sure that’s gonna go well ( [mention=1769]Chewbacca[/mention])
Yeah, not sure why the fuck he is coming here. Probably looking for Venezuelan gang members.
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Js1

Js1 85222

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Just now, Chewbacca said:
19 minutes ago, Js1 said:
Don’t worry. He’s going to Aurora, Colorado the day before that. I’m sure that’s gonna go well ( [mention=1769]Chewbacca[/mention])

Yeah, not sure why the fuck he is coming here. Probably looking for Venezuelan gang members.

It’s at the Gaylord. He’s barely leaving the airport lol

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13488

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The best betting markets are hammering the obvious wrong bets like those betting on Trump to win the popular vote or Kari Lake winning AZ. you don't get rich but it's easy money.

The only two risks that I see. 1) Something drastic occurs (i.e. harris announces she's dropping out) and you're late to get out of the bet.  2) A site like Polymarket goes offline and doesn't pay out.

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HornPhD

HornPhD 1367

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1 hour ago, Shut up Lou Holtz said:

Fucking mind bottling. He’s never heard of a cat 5 hurricane… the best people 

The dumb motherfucker was in office when a cat 5 hit florida in 2018

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HornPhD

HornPhD 1367

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10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The best betting markets are hammering the obvious wrong bets like those betting on Trump to win the popular vote or Kari Lake winning AZ. you don't get rich but it's easy money.

The only two risks that I see. 1) Something drastic occurs (i.e. harris announces she's dropping out) and you're late to get out of the bet.  2) A site like Polymarket goes offline and doesn't pay out.

Can I bet on that?

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45646

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1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/60-minutes-brings-the-receipts-on-trumps-interview-about-face?ref=home?ref=home

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fact checking is now not fair to them. They should be able to make things up out of whole cloth because their entire strategy is just to lie about everything. This is where the GOP is today. 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31412

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22 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Fact checking is now not fair to them. They should be able to make things up out of whole cloth because their entire strategy is just to lie about everything. This is where the GOP is today. 

That's just staggering.  

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25906

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13 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

She needs to do Rogan or Theo Von.  Both are good interviewers, she would do well in both forums. 

Both are know-nothing morons.  I watched  as much as I could tolerate of "Theo" with Cuban.  He's a fucking idiot. 

13 hours ago, HenryJames said:

 

 

13 hours ago, bluto said:

The fact either of them are considered good interviewers is insanity 

Yep. 

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

Trump is holding a rally in Coachella, California this weekend

Biden won the area around Coachella 78-20 

There were 2 precincts that voted for Trump 100% - one 2 votes to 0 and one 1 vote to 0 lol

And no, this rally isn't at the Coachella festival grounds - it's at a polo club in Coachella, which was overwhelmingly Biden.  Less than 30 days until the election and Trump is in.....California.

That's one less weekend he's in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada.  

High expected to be over 100 degrees.   

3 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

No one goes in a temple with their head uncovered.  

Doesn't the ferret pelt on Trump's head count as "cover"?

2 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Polymarket has Trump at 53% to win? I don't get it.

What new voters has he gained? Maybe young Latinos. The machismo bit seems to appeal to a lot of them. And they feel more native than ever. Many don't speak Spanish today. I'm surprised how the 'close the border' appeals to many Latinos. And Catholic I guess.

"What are you looking at?"

"Nothing"

"You calling me a nothing?" 

"No"

"You calling me a liar?"

Edited by Gil Bang
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Texas Jeff

Texas Jeff 1940

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I thought Harris and Walz did well and looked great on "60 Minutes" and holy cow Maricopa Co, AZ is crazy town USA.

Harris repeated a few lines from the debate, answered some questions and dodged others, but otherwise looked presidential.

"60 Minutes" said that Trump's camp wanted them to agree to not fact check his interview before Trump pulled out, and they replied that they fact check ALL their interviews.  What did they expect, it's friggin' "60 Minutes" -- this is what they do.

Edited by Texas Jeff
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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

He's made the calculation that he'd prefer to run against Harris in 2028 than try to run as a Republican after a second Trump term.

He's not wrong.  And he won't be the last one to make that calculation.  I guarantee you we'll see other high Republican officeholders who might have presidential aspirations subtly undermine Trump over the next 29 days.

The story on how he wasn't taking calls from Biden/Harris was starting to pick up steam.  If this next Hurricane is as bad as it looks, I think he realized it would damage his career more than Harris's.  

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The best betting markets are hammering the obvious wrong bets like those betting on Trump to win the popular vote or Kari Lake winning AZ. you don't get rich but it's easy money.

The only two risks that I see. 1) Something drastic occurs (i.e. harris announces she's dropping out) and you're late to get out of the bet.  2) A site like Polymarket goes offline and doesn't pay out.

Three things about the betting markets:

1. As with any binary prediction on the election, it can't be wrong.  If Trump has a 1% chance of winning, and he does, then that 1% paid off.  

2. It's basically the median opinion of the public.  If I trusted the public's median opinion, then I wouldn't have to worry about this election.  Roughly half the voting public thinks Donald Trump was a competent President.  It boggles the fucking mind how stupid we are.  The gambling sites are pulling from the same absurd think tank.  What kind of odds can I get that in the next year, it will be announced that we have diplomatic relations with several alien species?  

3. Even the people that bet on those markets believe they are wrongs on the odds.  There would be no reason to bet otherwise.  

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Goredho

Goredho 17387

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Fact checking is now not fair to them. They should be able to make things up out of whole cloth because their entire strategy is just to lie about everything. This is where the GOP is today. 

Denial is a hell of a drug.  I've seen incredibly intelligent people grasp demonic possession as an alternative to a reality they didn't want to face.  And boy is reality something the GOP doesn't want to face.

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Jhawkmvp

Jhawkmvp 1489

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6 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Polymarket has Trump at 53% to win? I don't get it.

What new voters has he gained? Maybe young Latinos. The machismo bit seems to appeal to a lot of them. And they feel more native than ever. Many don't speak Spanish today. I'm surprised how the 'close the border' appeals to many Latinos. And Catholic I guess.

Peter Thiel is a huge investor in Polymarket. Polymarket is also an offshore, unregulated company. It could be Thiel putting his finger on the scale for his favored candidate. Especially with Elon pimping it. It could also just be crypto bros  (Ethereum) being crypto bros.

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wood

wood 11225

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14 hours ago, Js1 said:

Must stand for Old Trump Fellaters 

Reminds me of a joke I read today ...

How do you make a Republican fall to his knees?

Paint your d!ck orange.

 

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wood

wood 11225

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14 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Making the man: to understand Trump, look at his relationship with his dad | Donald Trump | The Guardian

Yep. This comes from the same grandson of a German immigrant who said that success can be accounted for by genetics.

Interesting. Too bad we didn't look into Trump's genes so we could have seen that he'd be a fraud, a felon, a fascist, a traitor, and an aspiring dictator.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13488

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There is merit that traditional media has a place in political interview but they’re in the position of being ignored because they refused to hold politicians accountable especially Trump. Looking at you Fox.

trump will tell Fox viewers that he will reverse high prices and get them back to when he was previously president. That’s impossible but Fox won’t call him on it.

Harris assertion that her anti price gouging laws will lower prices is also bs. However why go on face the nation or Anderson 360 and have them hold her feet to that fire.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22687

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NYT/Siena:
National - Harris +3
TX - Trump +6
FL - Trump +13 (lol super outlier, no state is shifting 10 points right in 4 years)

NYT has gone so far off the rails this cycle that I have no idea if we are supposed to view these polls as complimentary, however Harris +3 nationally in a Florida Trump +13 environment would be great news in the swing states and mean a likely runaway electoral victory.
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13488

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3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


NYT has gone so far off the rails this cycle that I have no idea if we are supposed to view these polls as complimentary, however Harris +3 nationally in a Florida Trump +13 environment would be great news in the swing states and mean a likely runaway electoral victory.

Yep, NYT has something off with their polls.  And others need to stop thinking they’re putting their thumbs on the scale. Most likely they have a flawed model that can only be adjusted when they eventually compare it to actual results.

 

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Js1

Js1 85222

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34 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

There is merit that traditional media has a place in political interview but they’re in the position of being ignored because they refused to hold politicians accountable especially Trump. Looking at you Fox.

The Office Thank You GIF

You can't choose to fact check Harris but not Trump.  You can't harp on Walz misspeaking and then let Vance lie with impunity about Haitians and post-birth abortions. 

If the media isn't going to do its job to protect it's precious access to the GOP, then fuck giving them interviews. 

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Js1

Js1 85222

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https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/08/harris-medicare-home-care-seniors-00182782

Another policy being introduced today

The vice president will propose establishing a home care benefit through Medicare focused on helping families afford the cost of caring for seniors at home instead of in nursing facilities, according to a senior campaign official granted anonymity to share details of the proposal.

The senior official said the proposal would help older Americans age at home and avoid the costs of in-facility care, which can be thousands of dollars more a month than in-home care. The benefit would cover the costs of various home care services, including in-home health aides.

Harris will also use her appearance on “The View” to appeal to the so-called sandwich generation, the roughly quarter of Americans who are both raising children and caring for aging parents — and that Harris campaign data shows contains a large percentage of remaining undecided voters, the campaign official said.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47993

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39 minutes ago, Js1 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/08/harris-medicare-home-care-seniors-00182782

Another policy being introduced today

The vice president will propose establishing a home care benefit through Medicare focused on helping families afford the cost of caring for seniors at home instead of in nursing facilities, according to a senior campaign official granted anonymity to share details of the proposal.

The senior official said the proposal would help older Americans age at home and avoid the costs of in-facility care, which can be thousands of dollars more a month than in-home care. The benefit would cover the costs of various home care services, including in-home health aides.

Harris will also use her appearance on “The View” to appeal to the so-called sandwich generation, the roughly quarter of Americans who are both raising children and caring for aging parents — and that Harris campaign data shows contains a large percentage of remaining undecided voters, the campaign official said.

Here come the lobbies for nursing homes to decry this evil poposal...

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SubliminalHorn

SubliminalHorn 6768

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/08/harris-medicare-home-care-seniors-00182782

Another policy being introduced today

The vice president will propose establishing a home care benefit through Medicare focused on helping families afford the cost of caring for seniors at home instead of in nursing facilities, according to a senior campaign official granted anonymity to share details of the proposal.

The senior official said the proposal would help older Americans age at home and avoid the costs of in-facility care, which can be thousands of dollars more a month than in-home care. The benefit would cover the costs of various home care services, including in-home health aides.

Harris will also use her appearance on “The View” to appeal to the so-called sandwich generation, the roughly quarter of Americans who are both raising children and caring for aging parents — and that Harris campaign data shows contains a large percentage of remaining undecided voters, the campaign official said.

Working in Home Health, this is something that really moves the needle for me since I see families struggling with this everyday. I also see it on the horizon for myself as my parents get older. I don’t think people realize how important this is

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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19 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Working in Home Health, this is something that really moves the needle for me since I see families struggling with this everyday. I also see it on the horizon for myself as my parents get older. I don’t think people realize how important this is

Elder care is such a mess.  Ignoring all the stress and challenges in health care, and just focused on money: It amazes me how many folks are strongly opposed to the estate tax, but have no idea what affect elder care has on middle class generational wealth.  

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29323

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/08/harris-medicare-home-care-seniors-00182782

Another policy being introduced today

The vice president will propose establishing a home care benefit through Medicare focused on helping families afford the cost of caring for seniors at home instead of in nursing facilities, according to a senior campaign official granted anonymity to share details of the proposal.

The senior official said the proposal would help older Americans age at home and avoid the costs of in-facility care, which can be thousands of dollars more a month than in-home care. The benefit would cover the costs of various home care services, including in-home health aides.

Harris will also use her appearance on “The View” to appeal to the so-called sandwich generation, the roughly quarter of Americans who are both raising children and caring for aging parents — and that Harris campaign data shows contains a large percentage of remaining undecided voters, the campaign official said.

Holy shit, this would be a huge fucking deal. 

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