2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Serak The Preparer 3484]

7 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Fucking Astros fans

You guys have Drew and dcar00. Advantage Houston.

[dcbc 14644]

8 hours ago, C-Man said:

Mein fahrrad!

[Hank Kingsley 21785]

44 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Holy covering your ass, Batman. Yeah, polling is hard to measure. But if Enten's not gonna deep dive the numbers and just say "who fucking knows?", I don't see how this is helpful at all or why CNN employs him.  

 

[dcbc 14644]

8 hours ago, Stros121 said:

I posted to find out what it was mostly.

[Js1 87185]

19 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Holy covering your ass, Batman. Yeah, polling is hard to measure. But if Enten's not gonna deep dive the numbers and just say "who fucking knows?", I don't see how this is helpful at all or why CNN employs him.  

 

HORSE RACE

TUNE IN DAILY

WE LOVE MONEY

[Js1 87185]

24 minutes ago, Woland said:

For Trump, perception is more valuable than reality. He is trying to foster the idea that his campaign is in a roll and Harris is losing ground.

It’s also not the first Nazi rally that MSG has hosted 

[cactusflinthead 27627]

 

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13629]

9 hours ago, Satchel said:

Let’s hope dental coverage will be in the next expansion:

 

FACT SHEET: A Historic Medicare at Home Plan to Support the Sandwich Generation

Vice President Harris and Governor Walz Will Strengthen Medicare to—for the First Time Ever—Cover Home Care for Seniors and Provide Hearing and Vision Coverage   Will Lower Costs and Reduce the Financial and Emotional Stress of Americans in the “Sandwich Generation” Navigating Care for Aging Parents and Children

Currently taking a leave of absence from work to take care of both parents who have just transitioned from the hospital into nursing rehab so this hits close to home. Also pretty damn grateful for the Clinton-era Family Medical Leave Act so I can at least retain my insurance coverage. Government can do some things right.

['stache 22143]

9 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

This smells of a new cologne called “Desperation.”

Watters: We are getting a lot of texts from women about Stephen Miller. Our audience believes you are some sort of sexual matador. 

Miller: Some advice to any young man out there. If you are a young man who's looking to impress the ladies, to be attractive.. the best thing you can do is wear your Trump support on your sleeve. Show that you are a real man. Show that you are not a beta. Be a proud and loud Trump supporter and your dating life will be fantastic

Take your pick maga men.

[Biff Tannen 46168]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Maybe WE win by 21.

[immamac 44354]

9 hours ago, Stros121 said:

I posted to find out what it was mostly. There is no other place to post this other than this shit hole of a thread. Stop being so sensitive. Do you think I’m trying to change someone’s vote in your safe space? Piss off being all high and mighty.

Super fucking weird I found this thread that is definitely another place to post something like this.

[mdmost 44049]

47 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

You guys have Drew and dcar00. Advantage Houston.

Pretty sure you guys have Macklemore (Icono), Pimphand, and cabowabo. You really want to claim an advantage with that trio on your side?

[Js1 87185]

1 minute ago, mdmost said:

Pretty sure you guys have Macklemore (Icono), Pimphand, and cabowabo. You really want to claim an advantage with that trio on your side?

[Bozo_Casanova 26851]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Pennsylvania generally votes to the right of its registrations, and the polls have been off in the last few elections by about 2-3 points

I should have put some context around this- registrations are a lagging indicator. As coalitions change and realign people who don’t vote in primaries change their vote before they re-register their party affiliation. That seems obvious enough, but whether PA has continued to shift right relative to registration since 2020 isn’t knowable until 11/5. 
My point is that the registration numbers in PA, Florida and other places reflect previous behaviors that are already baked in, not future behaviors.

[Js1 87185]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

I should have put some context around this- registrations are a lagging indicator. As coalitions change and realign people who don’t vote in primaries change their vote before they re-register their party affiliation. That seems obvious enough, but whether PA has continued to shift right relative to registration since 2020 isn’t knowable until 11/5. 
My point is that the registration numbers in PA, Florida and other places reflect previous behaviors that are already baked in, not future behaviors.

Also very true.  WV was +Dem registrations for a long time, yet consistently voted very very Republican.

[Tuco 5093]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Biden +70 

He’s not even trying anymore 

Maybe Putin likes "The Manchurian Candidate"

[Pancho 46312]

CNN keeps trying to make harry enten the Steve Kornacki of their network and it’s terrible. 

[jimmyjazz 47205]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

You see, what this doesn't show is the tampering of the tabulators going forward.  Checkmate, libtards.

Edited October 9 by jimmyjazz

[The Original Greaser Bob 2888]

I'm the Manwich Generation. 

And I wershed them down with Handy Andy brand cokes.

[chainsaw 10292]

3 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

I'm the Manwich Generation. 

And I wershed them down with Handy Andy brand cokes.

Damn now I want a 33-page Manwich recipe booklet.

Edited October 9 by chainsaw

[C-Man 27779]

[Js1 87185]

Oh the irony of saying Harris is word salad bilge next to Trump

JD Vance went pure Porky Pig when asked why black people should vote for him and Trump 

Uh, uh, um, but, uh, um…there’s black people in the crowd 

Edited October 9 by Js1

[Post Oak 20568]

7 minutes ago, C-Man said:

 

The more this guy talks the more I start to think being anti migrant might have some perks

 

[Red Five 41738]

I don't think I've seen one instance of Harris uttering "word salad". But obviously that's all Trump does these days. So, you know, every accusation.

[Js1 87185]

The district level polling we’ve seen (CA races, Iowa races, NE-02, this) do not jive with the state level polling showing everything a tossup

 

[Hank Kingsley 21785]

Among the many benefits of a Trump loss, dipshits like Piers Morgan will fade into obscurity and irrelevance. 

 

 

[hookem2010 2700]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The district level polling we’ve seen (CA races, Iowa races, NE-02, this) do not jive with the state level polling showing everything a tossup

 

Your vibes are far more immaculate than Bozo's.

[Js1 87185]

1 minute ago, hookem2010 said:

Your vibes are far more immaculate than Bozo's.

She’d basically have to be cratering worse than HRC did in the rurals/with WWC voters and shedding massive amounts of black and Hispanic support. This poll and PA being a pure tossup shouldn’t exist in the same universe unless every pollster has absolutely missed one specific demographic shifting wayyyy to the right 

[RomaVicta 30591]

9 hours ago, Sheep Have Wool said:

Imagine you've got a very, very small penis. You've been mocked for it in the locker room. Women laughed. Suddenly, someone offered you the opportunity to direct people's attention to something other than your microdick. You don't care if it's true, you just desperately want the focus to be elsewhere. You're looking to cover up your inadequacies and insecurities, not engage in critical thinking.

It's the story of MAGA in general and @Stros121 specifically. 

Objection!

Some people have micropeni and can engage in critical thinking!

[Brandywine 1330]

10 hours ago, C-Man said:

Perfect! What a horrible person. He has all the looks and character of someone who would have been in Hitler's core leadership group. 

[atomheartbevo 90650]

2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

But people on this board need to come to grips with the fact that we really don’t know what’s happening. Lots of people who had not previously voted for Trump had grudgingly come around on him and it’s hard to unring that bell. Red areas of the rust belt have only gotten redder, the polls can only catch what swims through the net and Donald Trump may be winning this comfortably.

Dick Fucking Cheney endorsed Kamala Harris. If people like Dick Cheney are endorsing Harris, there will be a lot of Republicans who, in the privacy of the voting booth, will vote for Harris or just not vote.

[Pancho 46312]

17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The district level polling we’ve seen (CA races, Iowa races, NE-02, this) do not jive with the state level polling showing everything a tossup

 

Yup

 

[4th&Five 42005]

31 minutes ago, C-Man said:

 

 

[Beantown Express 2.0 6597]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She’d basically have to be cratering worse than HRC did in the rurals/with WWC voters and shedding massive amounts of black and Hispanic support. This poll and PA being a pure tossup shouldn’t exist in the same universe unless every pollster has absolutely missed one specific demographic shifting wayyyy to the right 

I am really struggling understanding the polling unless the pollsters are just flat out lying.  I think yesterday in this thread someone posted how Republican internals show Trump will win PA and all the sunbelt states and easily win the election.  What am I missing?  It's not like his presidency or anything he has done since then should make more people vote for him.  He has always had his base that would vote for him even if Jesus came down from the heavens and told them not to but now the polls supposedly show shifts of people now saying, "Gee, this Trump seems great, and we need to make him our leader again".  Only thing I can figure is there may be more people than we realize that won't vote for a woman for President.  I hope I am wrong but that would be the reason for the magic polling that keeps showing more and more people moving towards Trump.

[Js1 87185]

IIRC, the district level polling (when we got a lot of it in 16/20) pointed to signs that the election would be closer than the state polling.  The problem is the total lack of district level polling right now that aren't internals or one-off polls.  What we have gotten does not hold up to the CW that every swing state is Trump +1 to Harris +1

Today, the DCCC published an internal of WI-01 that put the Republican up 3 and the presidential race tied at 49-49.  The Republican won the redrawn 1st CD 54-45 and Trump would have won it 52-47. 

Edited October 9 by Js1

[4th&Five 42005]

 

[Js1 87185]

1 minute ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I am really struggling understanding the polling unless the pollsters are just flat out lying.  I think yesterday in this thread someone posted how Republican internals show Trump will win PA and all the sunbelt states and easily win the election.  What am I missing?

I don't think they're lying.  I think they are so fucking afraid of being wrong again, they're overcompensating.  Nate Cohn mentioned the number of polls that do recall samples, which tend to favor the out of power party / loser of the last election, which are underestimating Harris.

I also posted that the person who said that was Mark Halperin, who works for Newsmax.  Newsmax is about as legit as fucking Breitbart.

[Kel Varnsen 8748]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

It’s also not the first Nazi rally that MSG has hosted 

O'Brien?

[jimmyjazz 47205]

28 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Among the many benefits of a Trump loss, dipshits like Piers Morgan will fade into obscurity and irrelevance. 

I don't know how anyone expects anything of Morgan.  It must be the accent.  He's a game show winner who considers himself a Tory and counts Donald Trump as a close personal friend.

 

 

Edited October 9 by jimmyjazz

[cactusflinthead 27627]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Nate Cohn

I read that when you posted it. It concluded nothing for me. 

About the best I can sum it up, "Some polls weight by whether or not you recall who you voted for, and that favors the winner, but some don't and here's a muddy pool of words. Shrug. Nobody knows but they deathly afraid of being really wrong and we're all hedging one way or the other."

 

 

[The Dog 44861]

35 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The district level polling we’ve seen (CA races, Iowa races, NE-02, this) do not jive with the state level polling showing everything a tossup

 

I still think PA will be close but just to add this district has a Cook rating of R+5 and went for Dr Oz 49-48 in 2022. Also heavily for shapiro in 2022 so there's also that.

[Js1 87185]

Also Harry Enten's "the true margin of error is 9%!!!!" is not analysis, it's hedging.

It's worse than the "the ACTUAL unemployment rate is 7%!!!!!" people. 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2888]

37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The district level polling we’ve seen (CA races, Iowa races, NE-02, this) do not jive with the state level polling showing everything a tossup

Jibe.

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26851]

17 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

This is sometimes called “the politics of impotence.”

the key points are:

- the government can’t be fixed

- we can’t make the world better

- People I don’t know are scary 

- the success of other people is a threat to my success 

- I’m afraid of cities

- I’m a real man

See also, Vance, JD

Edited October 9 by Bozo_Casanova

[SydneyCarton 49504]

The elections in this country are so fucked. I've completely come around to the idea that taxpayer dollars should fund candidate elections equally, and that's fucking it. We need to outlaw political commericals, we need to outlaw all fucking social media advertising. Campaigning should be rallies, town hall interviews, and fucking debates, and those should be posted unedited and aired on telivision live and in replays over and over, and that should fucking be it. Crack down on most of the ways to fucking lie easily. Fuck. 

[aggie08 21800]

50 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Among the many benefits of a Trump loss, dipshits like Piers Morgan will fade into obscurity and irrelevance. 

 

 

And they all know it. Hence the desperation. There's a long line of grifters who are going to be socially and economical ruined if Trump loses. 

It's truly great.

[C-Man 27779]

54 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

The more this guy talks the more I start to think being anti migrant might have some perks

 

Anybody got Jimmy Johnson's NFL Draft Value Chart? How many Haitians are Elon Musk and Piers Morgan worth? (I kid. I kid. Mostly.)

[NorthLoop 14466]

29 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

O'Brien?

He's Murphy. I'm O'Brien. 

[Brisketexan 106900]

2 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

And they all know it. Hence the desperation. There's a long line of grifters who are going to be socially and economical ruined if Trump loses. 

It's truly great.

Not me, I'm gonna do GREAT.  My "Challenge the Stollen Election II, Kamala Boogaloo" PAC is gonna RAKE in the bucks.  The dipshits' disability/SS checks will hardly pause in their bank accounts before they send the money on to me to STOP THE STEAL!

[C-Man 27779]

5 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

He's Murphy. I'm O'Brien. 

RIP, @YGIFS