2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Born to Run 6569]

22 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The elections in this country are so fucked. I've completely come around to the idea that taxpayer dollars should fund candidate elections equally, and that's fucking it. We need to outlaw political commericals, we need to outlaw all fucking social media advertising. Campaigning should be rallies, town hall interviews, and fucking debates, and those should be posted unedited and aired on telivision live and in replays over and over, and that should fucking be it. Crack down on most of the ways to fucking lie easily. Fuck. 

And no more goddamn fucking signs in the Public ROW. Private property only.

 

Never happening though.

[Jive Turkey 12591]

44 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

O'Brien?

[Bozo_Casanova 26407]

1 hour ago, C-Man said:

 

Piers Morgan is relevant to the discourse in 2024 the way that Milton Berle was “Mr Television” in 1979. 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2819]

28 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

We need to outlaw political commercials, we need to outlaw all fucking social media advertising. Campaigning should be rallies, town hall interviews, and fucking debates, and those should be posted unedited and aired on television live and in replays over and over, and that should fucking be it.

Just heard an interview of Yuval Noah Harari (I liked his book, Sapiens).  He was making this point.  Arguing that having all the information you can possibly get will lead you to the truth is like arguing that eating all the food you can possibly eat is healthy.  The ethical curators of information have given in to the flood of AI curated information - true and false.

['stache 21786]

1 hour ago, C-Man said:

 

"The more I watch Michael Jordan highlights the more it appears he was a below average player. Just dribbles around and throws it in the air sometimes. The Bulls must regret having drafted him."

That's what these people sound like. Words without context, support, or meaning.

[Pato del Muerto 52461]

I’ll be damned- Trump said something that’s true. The world is smaller than the universe. Some one give that guy a bran cookie. 

[cactusflinthead 27597]

 

[HornPhD 1367]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Biden +70 

He’s not even trying anymore 

Is he trying to get his supporters killed by holding a rally in such a “hellhole” where “MURDERS & VIOLENT CRIME HIT UNIMAGINABLE RECORDS!”

[Francisco 2.0 32379]

18 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Piers Morgan is relevant to the discourse in 2024 the way that Milton Berle was “Mr Television” in 1979. 

 

Counterpoint:   Milton was still packing a weapon of mass destruction in 1979, so he had that going for him.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 9 by Francisco 2.0

[Red Five 40777]

7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

"The more I watch Michael Jordan highlights the more it appears he was a below average player. Just dribbles around and throws it in the air sometimes. The Bulls must regret having drafted him."

That's what these people sound like. Words without context, support, or meaning.

Like a commentator the week of the Texas-UTSA game. "The more I watch Texas highlights the less impressed I am. Texas must be kicking themselves for hiring Sark."

[Aqua Buddha 14581]

Heard her on Stern yesterday.  I want to dispel the notion that Harris is a Boomer.  She said she liked hip hop and Doug liked Depeche Mode but they both liked Prince.

Gen X in the house....

[Pancho 44652]

What makes me ragey about this election (and others) is Americans are so stupid they can’t see that 4 men who aren’t even American are trying to run, and ruin, this country:

 

Musk

Theil

Murdoch

Putin

[Firemans4Horn 18023]

EXCLUSIVE: Bulwark Poll Finds Large Chunk of Haley Voters Ready to Ditch Trump

Quote

Republican and independent backers of the former U.N. ambassador are far more open to voting Democratic than four years ago.

A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF SELF-IDENTIFIED Nikki Haley voters say they will support Kamala Harris for president, according to a new survey shared exclusively with The Bulwark. 

If the election were held today, Donald Trump would win just 45 percent of those who backed Haley in the GOP primary while 36 percent said they’d back Harris, the new poll shows, according to the survey of 781 registered Republicans and independents conducted by the new Democratic-leaning polling outfit Blueprint. The poll did not include Democrats or Democrat-leaning Independents who supported Haley.

Trump’s level of support from Haley voters in the poll represents a significant drop in support for Trump, who won those same voters against Joe Biden by 59-28 percent. That 22 percentage point change in preference (from plus 31 percent for Trump in 2020 to plus 9 percent in this survey) could represent a swing of millions of votes.

The findings are among the most substantive analyses of Haley supporters. They come on the heels of a New York Times/Siena College pollshowing that Harris has made major inroads among GOP voters, with 9 percent saying they planned to support the vice president, up from 5 percent from a survey last month.

“Between 5 and 10 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are Nikki Haley supporters,” said Evan Roth Smith, the lead pollster for Blueprint, which conducted the poll between September 28 and October 6. “If Harris can indeed win a third or more of them in the general election, it will provide a boost of a couple percentage points. In such a close race where the margin of victory will be razor-thin, particularly in the swing states, it’s clearly worth pursuing these voters.”

Harris’s campaign has made aggressive efforts to reach disaffected Republicans in the final weeks of the election, leaning on longtime conservatives and former Trump officials as surrogates and featuring them in ads. 

Haley supporters are those that the campaign believes it needs to reach. During the GOP primary, a chunk of the electorate consistently supported the former U.N. ambassador over Trump, even after she suspended her campaign. What was less clear was whether they were Democratic-leaning voters who would naturally vote for the Democratic ticket anyway, Republicans who would come home to Trump, or Republicans who would cross the aisle if the former president emerged as the party’s nominee. 

The Blueprint survey fills in some of those answers. It shows slippage for Trump among both Haley voters who identified as Republicans and those who identified as independents. Only 49 percent of Republican Haley voters plan to vote for Trump in 2024, compared to 64 percent who voted for him in 2020. Among independent Haley voters, only 38 percent said they were voting for Trump, compared with 48 percent who backed him in 2020.

Overall, Haley voters who participated in the Blueprint survey had negative views of both candidates though slightly worse for Trump. The former president was viewed favorably by 27 percent of this pool compared to 73 percent who viewed him unfavorably (for a -46 percent rating). Harris, by contrast, had a -32 percent approval rating (34 percent favorable and 66 percent unfavorable). Notably, President Joe Biden, who bowed out of the race in July, was viewed even more negatively than Trump, with a 25 percent favorable rating among Haley voters and a 74 percent unfavorable rating for a net -49 rating.

The self-identified Haley voters in the Blueprint survey appeared to find themselves in a political island. A virtually equal percentage said that they believed the Democratic party (27 percent) and Republican party (26 percent) had gotten more extreme. (Fifty-six percent said both parties have become equally more extreme.) Similar percentages said that the Democratic party (30 percent) and Republican party (31 percent) had become more accepting of moderate and swing voters.

As for what’s impacting those perceptions, Haley voters say they are more concerned that Trump’s character is erratic (84 percent) rather than that his policies were too extreme (64 percent). For Harris, the problem is reversed: 70 percent said her policies were too extreme while 57 percent said her character was too erratic.

Haley herself has endorsed Trump despite a primary campaign that, she acknowledged, grew divisive and personal by the end. She spoke at the Republican convention this July and in September, she signed a fundraising email for the ex-president, noting that she worked for him and declaring that they were “on the same team.” But she has not yet appeared with Trump on the trail and the two do not appear to have spoken.

A Trump adviser familiar with the former ambassador’s role in the campaign told The Bulwark that Haley is planning to fundraise for the campaign and has recorded a robocall targeting independents and voters such as the ones surveyed in the Blueprint poll, the adviser said. Haley also may join Trump on the campaign trail or have her own surrogate events.

“Haley is very much on the team and is true to her word,” said the adviser.

A Haley spokeswoman and adviser did not return messages for comment.

But Haley’s larger absence has sparked concern in some conservative quarters. Conservative Washington Postcolumnist Marc Thiessen wrote on Tuesday that Haley could serve as a key validator for Trump among those Republicans who remained on edge about sending him back to the White House. “Why is Trump not deploying her on the campaign trail?” Thiessen asked.

Haley has said she is willing to take on the task. She recently told CBS’s Face the Nation that the former president “knows I’m on standby . . .  but there hasn’t been an ask as of yet.”

 

[NAVY 6739]

10 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Heard her on Stern yesterday.  I want to dispel the notion that Harris is a Boomer.  She said she liked hip hop and Doug liked Depeche Mode but they both liked Prince.

Gen X in the house....

Whatever 

[Firemans4Horn 18023]

2 minutes ago, NAVY said:

Whatever 

 

 

[Js1 85222]

Economist/YouGov

Harris 49, Trump 45

[tx ind 7004]

1 hour ago, Brandywine said:

Perfect! What a horrible person. He has all the looks and character of someone who would have been in Hitler's core leadership group. 

Except his wife is Jewish

[Red Five 40777]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Economist/YouGov

Harris 49, Trump 45

National polling seems to be amazingly consistent. 

[Bullneck 19070]

35 minutes ago, 'stache said:

"The more I watch Michael Jordan highlights the more it appears he was a below average player. Just dribbles around and throws it in the air sometimes. The Bulls must regret having drafted him."

That's what these people sound like. Words without context, support, or meaning.

Years ago I saw some R congressman say, "The problem with Obamacare is it doesn't work."

Nothing more than that.  No explanation, no backup, no statistics.  Just some guy from Oklahoma or Alabama saying what he's been lobbied to say.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, tx ind said:

Except his wife is Jewish

leaves his work at the office, imo

[jimmyjazz 45827]

No Jews supported Hitler /DT, probably

[heso 2780]

23 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

EXCLUSIVE: Bulwark Poll Finds Large Chunk of Haley Voters Ready to Ditch Trump

 

Adding some numbers to that. If 36% of the 158,672 people that voted for Haley in the PA primary vote for Harris, that’s 57,121 votes. Biden’s margin of victory in 2020 was 80,555. 

 it would be over 100,000 votes in Michigan. 90,000 votes in NC. 

[Slacks 6818]

3 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

"They changed it after."

[kevwun 15746]

Trump bitches about immigrants all they time and is married to one.  JD Vance hates brown people and is married to one.  See a pattern here?

[Bateshorn 9922]

37 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Heard her on Stern yesterday.  I want to dispel the notion that Harris is a Boomer.  She said she liked hip hop and Doug liked Depeche Mode but they both liked Prince.

Gen X in the house....

Edited October 9 by Bateshorn

[mdmost 42993]

Yeah but those are the good ones.

[DaysOff 7933]

Trump bitches about immigrants all they time and is married to one.  JD Vance hates brown people and is married to one.  See a pattern here?

They hate their wives?

[Slacks 6818]

1 hour ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Jibe.

 

Excuse me stewardess...

[C-Man 27172]

1 minute ago, DaysOff said:

They hate their wives?

We have zero proof that Melania has gone anywhere near Trump's micropeen in 18+ years

[Red Five 40777]

I'm pretty sure Dotard and Melanie have been seen together once this entire campaign, and that was at the convention. The absolute media firestorm that would result if we just never ever saw Doug is fun to imagine. "What are they hiding???"

[Pancho 44652]

 

[Slacks 6818]

21 minutes ago, Red Five said:

National polling seems to be amazingly consistent. 

But don't we already know the national outcome +/- 2% or so? 

[Js1 85222]

3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Up to 33.5% of his projected firewall needed for Dems 

[Pato del Muerto 52461]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Up to 33.5% of his projected firewall needed for Dems 

This assumes a 1:1 correlation between party and vote right?  Or maybe uses historical crossover numbers?  

[Js1 85222]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

This assumes a 1:1 correlation between party and vote right?  Or maybe uses historical crossover numbers?  

Yes. And does not include the indies number. It’s just D-R 

Ralston does the same - assumes a 95% retention rate for each party, I think. It’ll never be 100%

Edited October 9 by Js1

[Valmy77 13220]

23 minutes ago, Slacks said:

"They changed it after."

Yeah. They can just say whatever they want and you can never prove them wrong because they will just quickly pivot to the next lie.

But bless that dude's heart for thinking keeping receipts might make a difference.

[pyrohornIII 4814]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Oh the irony of saying Harris is word salad bilge next to Trump

JD Vance went pure Porky Pig when asked why black people should vote for him and Trump 

Uh, uh, um, but, uh, um…there’s black people in the crowd 

They had to develop a Trump filter to make sense of his ramblings.  They use it so much, they never turn it off, and anyone talking coherently just won't compute in that filter.  

34 minutes ago, Pancho said:

What makes me ragey about this election (and others) is Americans are so stupid they can’t see that 4 men who aren’t even American are trying to run, and ruin, this country:

 

Musk

Theil

Murdoch

Putin

Pretty much like Texas and all it's carpetbaggers

[Valmy77 13220]

14 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Awesome. Vote early, vote in person, vote once. 11 days before I can.

[South Austin 52373]

2 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Vote early, vote in person, vote once. 

[Bullneck 19070]

32 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Trump bitches about immigrants all they time and is married to one.  JD Vance hates brown people and is married to one.  See a pattern here?

Dammit, I hate hot, sexy, rich women who adore me.

Now, we wait . . . 

[Valmy77 13220]

3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I just don't want to be responsible for anybody getting arrested. 

[texasdago 7554]

Was it last year and this year when certain races for Congress, judges, local officials in certain states showed Ds way outperforming polls?  I'm trying to remember.  I feel like there was a period where you would see someone polling maybe 4 points and then they'd win by 8 or something like that.

Also, I know nothing at all about this race... this is NY 4 but how are races like this happening?

I guess this is a seat that flipped last election but looks to flip back?

[Js1 85222]

3 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Was it last year and this year when certain races for Congress, judges, local officials in certain states showed Ds way outperforming polls?  I'm trying to remember.  I feel like there was a period where you would see someone polling maybe 4 points and then they'd win by 8 or something like that.

Also, I know nothing at all about this race... this is NY 4 but how are races like this happening?

I guess this is a seat that flipped last election but looks to flip back?

2022 was supposed to be some big red wave and it was barely a trickle.  

A few safe blue states, like NY and CA, split their tickets because the state had already or was in the processing of codifying abortion protection statewide, so they didn't feel like they had to vote blue downballot.  Quite a few races lost in NY and CA were actually the difference in the House flipping in 2022. In NY specifically, the GOP candidate for governor had coattails. 

But also the Dems were really strong in a midterm in the midwest, compared to the Sunbelt and NY/CA. 

They will probably flip back.  NY-4/17/19 are all toss-up seats held by the GOP and NY-22 is already lean Dem by Cook Political.  Same with CA-13/22/27/41/45. 

[The Dog 43973]

6 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Was it last year and this year when certain races for Congress, judges, local officials in certain states showed Ds way outperforming polls?  I'm trying to remember.  I feel like there was a period where you would see someone polling maybe 4 points and then they'd win by 8 or something like that.

Also, I know nothing at all about this race... this is NY 4 but how are races like this happening?

I guess this is a seat that flipped last election but looks to flip back?

IMHO, what pollsters are struggling with is what you posted plus the "Trump only" voters who only show up when he's on the ballot. What's worse is many of this crowd will only vote for Trump and leave the rest of the ballot blank.

[TwiceHorn 31413]

13 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Welp, that’s enough internet for today 

Matador?  Meaning he waves a red cape in front of women and infuriates them?  He dodges their advances?  

Didn't he mean predator?

[hookem2010 2622]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

IMHO, what pollsters are struggling with is what you posted plus the "Trump only" voters who only show up when he's on the ballot. What's worse is many of this crowd will only vote for Trump and leave the rest of the ballot blank.

Pressing more than one button is hard. Learning about why you would press other buttons is even harder.

[HRSchenker 2266]

NYTimes polling data has Florida at +13 Trump. People actually believe this nonsense? Republicans were +5 in 2004 and +4 in 2020. There hasn't been a 10 point swing for the Florida winner in over 30 years. I expect Trump to win Florida but not by that margin lol

[Js1 85222]

1 minute ago, HRSchenker said:

NYTimes polling data has Florida at +13 Trump. People actually believe this nonsense? Republicans were +5 in 2004 and +4 in 2020. There hasn't been a 10 point swing for the Florida winner in over 30 years. I expect Trump to win Florida but not by that margin lol

It's an outlier, and the NYT publishing it is good for the industry. You want them to publish outliers, instead of herding all the polls into the same margins as other pollsters.  That's also a huge concern right now with every swing state somehow tied/+1 for each candidate.

Now there is the discussion of Florida/Texas/Montana/Idaho/Arizona becoming redder at the expense of other more traditional swing states in the Midwest and the west coast becoming bluer due to migration.  You have liberal voters migrating out of Texas/FL and into WA/OR/CO/NC, turning them slightly bluer, and more conservative voters moving out of MI/PA/WI/CA/NY and into FL/TX/AZ/MT and making them slightly redder.

[Francisco 2.0 32379]

Meanwhile, what 60 Minutes did with Harris the other night was a campaign violation, apparently.   

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33857]