2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Red Five 41785]

The problem is ignorance. Half the country thinks we're in a recession. Half the country thinks unemployment is at a 50 year high. 

Saw where Trump leads people who don't follow politics at all by 26 points. There's your problem. 

[Js1 87287]

7 minutes ago, Red Five said:

The problem is ignorance. Half the country thinks we're in a recession. Half the country thinks unemployment is at a 50 year high. 

Saw where Trump leads people who don't follow politics at all by 26 points. There's your problem. 

Vibecession 

[Chuckie Finster 23097]

6 minutes ago, Red Five said:

The problem is ignorance. Half the country thinks we're in a recession. Half the country thinks unemployment is at a 50 year high. 

Saw where Trump leads people who don't follow politics at all by 26 points. There's your problem. 

"Yeah, I mean Trump sucks but it's better than everything that's going on with Biden" - direct quote from a 20-something family member who was absolutely incapable of elaborating in any sort of intelligent way.  This is the median voter.

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

30 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

i think there's room for improvement, but I think the biggest issue is that we live in a country that cares about vibes over facts. 

Exactly correct.  that is why Biden is the worst possible person -- he is the least persuasive and least charismatic person in the chief office since mass media.  He has no ability to move public opinion.  So I disagree that "it wouldn't matter" who was up there.  Bill Clinton would be winning this thing by 10 points.  Ronald Reagan would be winning this thing by 10 points.  

[YGIFS 19458]

and 90% of the country doesn't know the definition of "tariff" or "recession" or "socialism"  We're not bad, we're just lazy.  We had a great run for about 100 years because of our oceans and our reserve currency and military might.  We're descended from the dumbest fucking people in the world.  And then the smart ones attempt to cross our borders, we vilify them.  

We got complacent is all.  And started celebrating stupidity and ignorance instead of casting it aside.  All of us on this forum need to remember to get the fuck over ourselves, the rest of the country is not engaged.  It's not FoxNews, it's not a propaganda machine, it's not Soros, or a Mister Ronan Sinatra.  It's simply our station in time and place.  It's an illusion as to where you happen to be standing at that instant.  And we all remember the lesson of the "Great Man Theory" from middle school social studies.  That Washington or Lincoln or FDR were put there by nearly divine intervention to sole the nation's woes.  Later on, we learn that they were merely products of their times.  That it is almost mere coincidence to get out alive.  Late on, came a man.  With an even grander idea.  You are not wrong, you are not stupid, you have only been held back by the swamp/deep-state/immigrants.  And he will haunt us for decades.  

[immamac 44418]

24 minutes ago, Red Five said:

The problem is ignorance. Half the country thinks we're in a recession. Half the country thinks unemployment is at a 50 year high. 

Saw where Trump leads people who don't follow politics at all by 26 points. There's your problem. 

To be fair every economist and most institutional investors are wondering why the fuck we aren't in a recession and consumers are acting completely irrationally. 

Nearly every major indicator and trend of recession is flashing, but the American consumer is just powering through. 

And yes, I meant Biden is doing a shitty job of vibing with people I didn't see he's doing a bad overall job. He's doing a bad job at letting everyone know how much he's unfucked and how good of a job he's doing. 

Love it or not with Trump and COVID he was doing daily briefings. Biden gives like 1 live press conference a quarter or less. There is no Biden being a general badass coverage. 

[BamaATL 16593]

This is just my guess as to the difference between the data and consumer behavior and why we are getting so many mixed signals.  Again, just my guess, for the first time in history we have a huge group of people that actually more or less indifferent to the actual economy in the form of boomers with retirement income.  It's not that we haven't had this before, it's the amount of people with fixed incomes/retirement/etc.  Combine that with a labor shortage, making unemployment low and you get a very mixed bag.  The normal indicators are flashing, but the actual economy isn't reacting in the expected way because this is a unique situation, one not seen before.  In short, this is an unprecedented time economically.  

Eventually, something has to give, and it will, but prior economic history just really isn't applying to today's situation.  

 

[immamac 44418]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

This is just my guess as to the difference between the data and consumer behavior and why we are getting so many mixed signals.  Again, just my guess, for the first time in history we have a huge group of people that actually more or less indifferent to the actual economy in the form of boomers with retirement income.  It's not that we haven't had this before, it's the amount of people with fixed incomes/retirement/etc.  Combine that with a labor shortage, making unemployment low and you get a very mixed bag.  The normal indicators are flashing, but the actual economy isn't reacting in the expected way because this is a unique situation, one not seen before.  In short, this is an unprecedented time economically.  

Eventually, something has to give, and it will, but prior economic history just really isn't applying to today's situation.  

 

Unemployment isn't actually that low. There is an enormous amount of discouraged workers that are omitted intentionally misleading the unemployment number. 

[BamaATL 16593]

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

Unemployment isn't actually that low. There is an enormous amount of discouraged workers that are omitted intentionally misleading the unemployment number. 

It's historically low by the data we can actually track.   No one can quantify discouraged workers.  Just because you can't get the job you necessarily want doesn't mean that there aren't jobs available.  I haven't seen anything on underemployment mentioned by anyone of late, but that doesn't mean it's not out there (of course it is to some degree).  

Sure everyone wants to the CEO right out of college, but someone has to be rank and file, and someone has to be the janitor.  At least some of that is a choice by people that are delusional as to where they are.  

[immamac 44418]

Just now, BamaATL said:

It's historically low by the data we can actually track.   No one can quantify discouraged workers.  Just because you can't get the job you necessarily want doesn't mean that there aren't jobs available.  I haven't seen anything on underemployment mentioned by anyone of late, but that doesn't mean it's not out there (of course it is to some degree).  

Sure everyone wants to the CEO right out of college, but someone has to be rank and file, and someone has to be the janitor.  At least some of that is a choice by people that are delusional as to where they are.  

The problem with this is it's bullshit. There's a ton of examples of companies not hiring qualified candidates for no reason. I've had experience with phantom job postings from the employer side (as the employer). There is actually a lot going on to cook the numbers. 

The number of people unemployed for longer than 26 weeks is also higher than normal or other reference periods in history. 

In short the economy in general is extremely fucking strange right now compared to any other recorded time of global economy. 

That doesn't mean it's bad, it's just hard to describe what the fuck is going on.

[SubliminalHorn 7012]

We are so fucked in November. I’m sure the pollyannas will be along shortly to say that all the polling is wrong! Yeah well, we’re fucked. Biden fucked us by not bowing out and letting someone else take the reins in the primaries. 

[4th&Five 42026]

Edited May 28 by 4th&Five

[Js1 87287]

54 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

We are so fucked in November. I’m sure the pollyannas will be along shortly to say that all the polling is wrong! Yeah well, we’re fucked. Biden fucked us by not bowing out and letting someone else take the reins in the primaries. 

Yeah, that worked out soooooooooooo well the last time an incumbent bowed out in the primary. 

[Hard Times 323]

Dotard has more baggage than American Airlines. A farm animal should be able to beat him. If any Democrat can't then there's something wrong with the Democratic party.

[Pato del Muerto 53596]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

Love it or not with Trump and COVID he was doing daily briefings. Biden gives like 1 live press conference a quarter or less. There is no Biden being a general badass coverage

No person in history has craved attention and loved cameras as much as Trump. I’m surprised he didn’t, and still doesn’t, have multiple press briefings per day to tell everyone how great he is

[Chuckie Finster 23097]

59 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

We are so fucked in November. I’m sure the pollyannas will be along shortly to say that all the polling is wrong! Yeah well, we’re fucked. Biden fucked us by not bowing out and letting someone else take the reins in the primaries. 

There was no secret bullet.  Biden is old, sure, but every other candidate has something that would have been their "thing" as well.  Hoping that rust belters suddenly become cool with the governor of California isn't nearly enough to give up the incumbency advantage.

[immamac 44418]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

No person in history has craved attention and loved cameras as much as Trump. I’m surprised he didn’t, and still doesn’t, have multiple press briefings per day to tell everyone how great he is

He basically does, what rock have you been living under? 

[Js1 87287]

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

He basically does, what rock have you been living under? 

Seriously, doesn't he word vomit all over the place with the media every day after court? 

[Pato del Muerto 53596]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Seriously, doesn't he word vomit all over the place with the media every day after court? 

That’s just once per day. I guess he has rallies some evenings as well, so consider me admonished and corrected. 

[LCHorn 2751]

1 hour ago, SubliminalHorn said:

We are so fucked in November. I’m sure the pollyannas will be along shortly to say that all the polling is wrong! Yeah well, we’re fucked. Biden fucked us by not bowing out and letting someone else take the reins in the primaries. 

Let’s not get hysterical here-there’s a lot of ways this can play out that don’t point to a Trump victory.  

[TexEx15 17959]

Turn it into a campaign ad!

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

12 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

There was no secret bullet.  Biden is old, sure, but every other candidate has something that would have been their "thing" as well.  Hoping that rust belters suddenly become cool with the governor of California isn't nearly enough to give up the incumbency advantage.

In 2020 I said Biden was the right choice upon nomination because he was the most certain of the candidates to win, and winning in 2020 was existential for the country.  I knew though at the time that it was a real concern for 2024 for all the reasons we discuss all the time of having Skeletor as your standard bearer.  I hoped for providence to intercede and remove Trump from public conscious some other way.  Since he didn't, yeah, we gotta roll with what we've got.  Newsome imo has a far worse likelihood of winning in a full blown campaign, let alone as a sudden last second substitute.

[TexEx15 17959]

 

[David Dennison 19569]

1 hour ago, SubliminalHorn said:

We are so fucked in November. I’m sure the pollyannas will be along shortly to say that all the polling is wrong! Yeah well, we’re fucked. Biden fucked us by not bowing out and letting someone else take the reins in the primaries. 

Why would anyone expect the most powerful man in the world to do this?

[Js1 87287]

12 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26909]

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

This is just my guess as to the difference between the data and consumer behavior and why we are getting so many mixed signals.  Again, just my guess, for the first time in history we have a huge group of people that actually more or less indifferent to the actual economy in the form of boomers with retirement income.  It's not that we haven't had this before, it's the amount of people with fixed incomes/retirement/etc.  Combine that with a labor shortage, making unemployment low and you get a very mixed bag.  The normal indicators are flashing, but the actual economy isn't reacting in the expected way because this is a unique situation, one not seen before.  In short, this is an unprecedented time economically.  

Eventually, something has to give, and it will, but prior economic history just really isn't applying to today's situation.  

 

Yes. I won't do a whole economics post about this here because nobody likes them but I was always skeptical about a both a recession and subsquently the odds of a rate cut for the reasons you talked about, plus all the excess liquidity still bouncing around the system. Wealth inequality ironically also played a key role in keeping us out of a recession, which is also why the vibes are so bad. People feel the way they do about the economy now that they did in 2012 - they see the standard of living rising all around them but not in their own lives. That's the disconnect.

2 hours ago, immamac said:

Unemployment isn't actually that low. There is an enormous amount of discouraged workers that are omitted intentionally misleading the unemployment number. 

No.

Edited May 28 by Bozo_Casanova

[Bozo_Casanova 26909]

55 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Turn it into a campaign ad!

 

He hasn't done shit about Tony Brothers or Scott Foster though

[SubliminalHorn 7012]

34 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Why would anyone expect the most powerful man in the world to do this?

oh I don’t know, maybe because his campaign pushed that narrative in 2019?
 

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2019-12-11/joe-biden-suggests-he-would-only-serve-one-term-if-elected-president

[David Dennison 19569]

2 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

oh I don’t know, maybe because his campaign pushed that narrative in 2019?
 

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2019-12-11/joe-biden-suggests-he-would-only-serve-one-term-if-elected-president

What happened to that narrative after he became the nominee?

[SubliminalHorn 7012]

3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

What happened to that narrative after he became the nominee?

He decided to fuck us over?

[Chuckie Finster 23097]

13 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

oh I don’t know, maybe because his campaign pushed that narrative in 2019?
 

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2019-12-11/joe-biden-suggests-he-would-only-serve-one-term-if-elected-president

From your article:

"He's going into this thinking, 'I want to find a running mate I can turn things over to after four years but if that's not possible or doesn't happen then I'll run for re-election.' But he's not going to publicly make a one term pledge," another adviser told Politico.

[Red Five 41785]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

From your article:

"He's going into this thinking, 'I want to find a running mate I can turn things over to after four years but if that's not possible or doesn't happen then I'll run for re-election.' But he's not going to publicly make a one term pledge," another adviser told Politico.

[David Dennison 19569]

2 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

He decided to fuck us over?

You really think that was a serious option once he was the nominee? Was it ever mentioned again by the campaign or the candidate?

I find it hard to believe that anyone running for president would seriously consider serving only one term.

[Js1 87287]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

From your article:

"He's going into this thinking, 'I want to find a running mate I can turn things over to after four years but if that's not possible or doesn't happen then I'll run for re-election.' But he's not going to publicly make a one term pledge," another adviser told Politico.

Yeah, most people assumed “if that’s not possible” meant “Trump as the 2024 GOP nominee”

Edited May 28 by Js1

[SubliminalHorn 7012]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

From your article:

"He's going into this thinking, 'I want to find a running mate I can turn things over to after four years but if that's not possible or doesn't happen then I'll run for re-election.' But he's not going to publicly make a one term pledge," another adviser told Politico.

So again, he fucked us over by not finding a running mate or someone he could groom to run this year? He and his campaign knew that his age was an issue even in 2020. And we’re surprised it’s a major issue this year? Posters here lament the fact that RBG didn’t retire so that Obama could replace her, but here’s Biden about to do the same fucking thing. 

[troph 25248]

9 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

What happened to that narrative after he became the nominee?

no one with the will and ability to obtain the WH is going to let it go if they can get a second term. I bet it's a fucking amazing job.

[David Dennison 19569]

It shocks me that anyone believed Joe Biden would not run for re-election.

[SubliminalHorn 7012]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

You really think that was a serious option once he was the nominee? Was it ever mentioned again by the campaign or the candidate?

I find it hard to believe that anyone running for president would seriously consider serving only one term.

It should have been a serious option. An octogenarian should have a had plan for his succession knowing full well he’ll be even older than fuck the next election. Our country and democracy is at stake, fuck yes I think that a one term presidency should have been at least planned for

[SubliminalHorn 7012]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

It shocks me that anyone believed Joe Biden would not run for re-election.

I didn’t believe he wouldn’t, I never said that. I’m saying it was a mistake for him to be running again. It’s going to cost us dearly

[David Dennison 19569]

Just now, SubliminalHorn said:

I didn’t believe he wouldn’t, I never said that. I’m saying it was a mistake for him to be running again. It’s going to cost us dearly

It would be worse if someone else got the nomination.

[4th&Five 42026]

who should have replaced him then?  there's nobody better right now than the fucking incumbent!

[SubliminalHorn 7012]

5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It would be worse if someone else got the nomination.

Well of course, you don’t know that 

5 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

who should have replaced him then?  there's nobody better right now than the fucking incumbent!

I don’t know. Whitmer? There’s nobody better right now than Biden? Yeah as he waltzes to a loss to trump. Pretty sad when the best we got…is struggling

Edited May 28 by SubliminalHorn

[Chuckie Finster 23097]

9 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

So again, he fucked us over by not finding a running mate or someone he could groom to run this year? He and his campaign knew that his age was an issue even in 2020. And we’re surprised it’s a major issue this year? Posters here lament the fact that RBG didn’t retire so that Obama could replace her, but here’s Biden about to do the same fucking thing. 

Pinning Kamala's unpopularity on Biden is a new one.

[Js1 87287]

The election is 5 months away. Maybe step back from obsessing over polls and the news for a bit?

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

Pinning Kamala's unpopularity on Biden is a new one.

ACTUALLY Bloomberg recently reported her standing has rebounded substantially with voters, both personally and in her ability to do the job if she has to become POTUS. 

[Brisketexan 107024]

2 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Well of course, you don’t know that 

I don’t know. Whitmer? There’s nobody better right now than Biden? Yeah as he waltzes to a loss to trump. Pretty sad when the best we got…is struggling

What you need to grasp is that American politics is about two personalities: the psychopathic cult leader that is Trump, who is boosted and given free press by every media outlet, and the generic "demon-rat" who runs against him.  IT DOESN'T MATTER WHO TRUMP'S OPPONENT IS.  The propaganda machine will characterize them as a communistsocialistSorosfascist America-hater who is woke and trans and hates eagles and freedom.  Whoever that person is.  It doesn't matter.  The uninformed voters don't dislike Biden.  The dislike the character with the name "Biden" who is constantly hammered in the rightwing (and even supposedly left-wing) press and propaganda-sphere.

[David Dennison 19569]

6 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Well of course, you don’t know that 

I don’t know. Whitmer? There’s nobody better right now than Biden? Yeah as he waltzes to a loss to trump. Pretty sad when the best we got…is struggling

Well of course, you don't know that.

[Js1 87287]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Well of course, you don't know that.

May 2016 - Trump is going to lose to Hillary so bad

May 2024 - Biden is going to lose to Trump so bad

[David Dennison 19569]

Just now, Js1 said:

May 2016 - Trump is going to lose to Hillary so bad

May 2024 - Biden is going to lose to Trump so bad

May 2012 - Obama is going to lose to Romney so bad

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

What you need to grasp is that American politics is about two personalities: the psychopathic cult leader that is Trump, who is boosted and given free press by every media outlet, and the generic "demon-rat" who runs against him.  IT DOESN'T MATTER WHO TRUMP'S OPPONENT IS.  The propaganda machine will characterize them as a communistsocialistSorosfascist America-hater who is woke and trans and hates eagles and freedom.  Whoever that person is.  It doesn't matter.  The uninformed voters don't dislike Biden.  The dislike the character with the name "Biden" who is constantly hammered in the rightwing (and even supposedly left-wing) press and propaganda-sphere.

in an election that will be decided by a point, it doesn't matter who the candidate is, says very serious poster (ad nauseum).

[Brisketexan 107024]

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

in an election that will be decided by a point, it doesn't matter who the candidate is, says very serious poster (ad nauseum).

I really don't think it does.  Because Joseph R. Biden is getting nearly zero attention.  "Biden!" is getting all the attention -- "Biden!" being a mostly fictional character as covered by the media and as turned into a caricature by the propagandists who dominate half the media and most of social media.  If it wasn't "Biden!" it would be "Whitmer!" or "Newsom!" or whoever -- who would not be the actual person, but rather would be the straw man manufactured and then destroyed by the media and propagandists.