2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[A-Tex Devil 2,500]

2 hours ago, speed817 said:

 

 

Christ, he’s my mother in law. 

[Leeroy Jenkins 2,484]

Tim Walz tonight: 

He has my vote!

[Texas Flood 1,382]

1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

UT has a (famous) history prof with a good book on that

+1 Had a class with Brands. He’s fantastic

[Satchel 6,982]

You gotta love the way Putin clowns Trump for grins. Trump sheepishly denies sending COVID testing machines to Putin. Upon learning of Trump’s denial, Putin immediately confirm receipt of the machines. And idiot Trump thinks Putin is his friend:

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/09/trump-putin-covid-testing-equipment-kremlin

The Kremlin on Wednesday confirmed a report that former President Trump sent Russian President Vladimir Putin COVID-19 testing equipment during the height of the pandemic. 

Why it matters: The Trump campaign categorically denied new revelations in journalist Bob Woodward's book "War," which renewed scrutiny of the relationship between Putin and the Republican presidential nominee.

Catch up quick: Woodward reported in his book that during the early days of the pandemic, Trump sent scarcely available COVID-19 testing machines for the Russian leader's personal use.

[Superhero 9,025]

14 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

He has my vote!

Hope his odds are higher than (Abdul can you give me a number crunch real quick?) 32.33 repeating of course % of winning. 

Edited October 10 by Superhero

[Brandywine 1,330]

3 hours ago, speed817 said:

 

 

He’s a very, very sick man. He just keeps repeating himself over and over. His mental decline is so obvious. He really should be on suicide watch. 

[Firemans4Horn 18,533]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

Regarding Quinnipac:

Here is a long answer. So if you look at the spread of each pollster's results from survey to survey, in the same geography, Quinnipiac tends to be very high. Eg take the 9 point swing in 3 weeks compared to their last MI poll. It's fine if you get percentages moving by 4.5 points (margins by 9) between surveys on occasion, but it was 8 points before that in MI and 7 points poll-to-poll in their most recent national survey. This is high compared to other pollsters. Generally this indicates that something about the methodology is producing more noise than you'd expect based only on the sample size of the poll. And the answer is that they are using random digit dialing and doing a lot of weighting, so the MOE is about 30% higher than it would normally be per their own disclosure, and the low response rates and representativeness are also probably causing some sort of non-response that isn't captured by these statistics. None of this is to say that Q polls are inaccurate, but they are seemingly less reliable than other methods that do more work to equalize response rates on the sampling end or use other design approaches to decrease effects of weighting and other non-sampling biases.

 

[atomheartbevo 90,651]

12 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Piers Morgan is relevant to the discourse in 2024 the way that Milton Berle was “Mr Television” in 1979. 

Or Donald Trump's uncle was to MIT in 1975.

[The Dog 44,861]

Apparently Texas poll also dropping tonight. Dunno why but they doing it anyway.

Phbt here’s the rest:

 

[gmr548 16,702]

7 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Jill Stein got completely embarrassed on Breakfast Club.

Jill Stein can't talk to black people!? No wai!

7 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Liberal media.

 

Even accepting the premise for the sake of argument (I'm not sure I actually would) - that's not necessarily inappropriate. It's a different electorate in a different national environment/zeitgeist, against a different, single opponent. The 2019 primary has never been a good argument for Harris being a weak candidate. 

5 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Tim Walz is a bust. Doesn't seem to be helping the campaign at all.

VP's don't help campaigns. They are a pass/fail, do no harm item. Walz clears that bar.

[pyrohornIII 4,846]

What the polls are missing is this amazing wave of energy coming out of the rural and suburban areas.  In 2020 I couldn't pay someone 20 bucks to put a Biden sign in their yard in my county.   But this year they are nearly begging for signs and  donating to our county party to keep up the good work.

Not only yard signs, but the bigger 4x4' hiway signs are going fast too.  People who live in the country want big signs so no one misses them as they whiz by.  Donations coming in at a thousand per lick to get billboards up.  Counties that had maybe one in 2020 are now seeing 4 or 5 being supported.   Not all counties are like this, but a big chunk of them are and the demand for signs, stickers, buttons or whatever is like nothing we've seen before, and right along with it are people volunteering to write postcards, make calls and other outreach methods to help in this election.  And all this came about after Biden stepped down and the Chicago convention.   I have to think this is going on all over the country, not just here in Texas.  I can't imagine the energy in those swing states.  

As far as Walz goes, he might not be helping everywhere, but he would fit in in so many rural areas so comfortably and people relate to that, vs Vance.   I don't see him as a negative, or even a non-factor.  He is appealing to those rural voters in so many states that might help blue tickets win more down ballot races.  So, for the presidency he might be a draw, but for down ballot he's a plus.  He makes it easier to not pull a lever for Trump.   People could live with him in a position of power, they'd trust him.   

 

[Tuco 5,093]

22 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

As far as Walz goes, he might not be helping everywhere, but he would fit in in so many rural areas so comfortably and people relate to that, vs Vance.   I don't see him as a negative, or even a non-factor.  He is appealing to those rural voters in so many states that might help blue tickets win more down ballot races.  So, for the presidency he might be a draw, but for down ballot he's a plus.  He makes it easier to not pull a lever for Trump.   People could live with him in a position of power, they'd trust him.   

 

 

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Jill Stein can't talk to black people!? No wai!

Even accepting the premise for the sake of argument (I'm not sure I actually would) - that's not necessarily inappropriate. It's a different electorate in a different national environment/zeitgeist, against a different, single opponent. The 2019 primary has never been a good argument for Harris being a weak candidate. 

VP's don't help campaigns. They are a pass/fail, do no harm item. Walz clears that bar.

Agreed on Harris 19 vs. now.  Different kind of race.  Also, her "failure" was that she ran out of money.  Not an issue here.  And that failure netted her a vp slot on the ticket, leading to being a vp to an elderly president, and presidential nomination four years later.  I wish all my failures were so productive. 

Regarding Walz, I think people underestimate his value in NE-2 (he is a native Nebraska and his trip electrified the district) and Wisconsin (shares a border with Minnesota and parts of the state get Minneapolis media).  Even Michigan is probably helped with the upper Midwest vibe.  Harris being from California might make those states a bigger reach.  

[LTbear 4,213]

12 hours ago, chainsaw said:

. This kind of performance is unacceptable.

Unacceptable? Sincerely, you are an absolute moron. You're a borderline troll at this point. 

[Woland 755]

trump team just free balling ….
The Trump campaign is dragging its feet on beginning the formal process allowing for a smooth transition of power.
The campaign has missed two major deadlines to sign required federal documents and has failed to file an ethics plan for his prospective admin.
The delay allows him to circumvent fundraising rules and ethics rules. 

Dotard has a history of blowing off little things like transitions. Maybe Rick Perry will reappear to lead the team.

[Hawndoh 2,409]

It doesn't take much of a team to transition from not-president to not-president 

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5,662]

My 72 year old vietnam veteran dad who was formerly republican as fuck until Donald Trump hit the scene put out a giant "WE WILL NOT GO BACK - KAMALA/WALZ 2024" sign in his front yard directly facing the "MAGA 2024" sign in his neighbor's yard. Fucking hell I'm so proud of my dad right now.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,851]

13 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

FDR was a progressive, you silly centrist. 

Great, go get him and he can explain himself. While you’re at it you can explain why you, a progressive, were caping for Citizens United a few years back. Wasn’t it for “more freedom,” or something?
Electoral politics are about who, not what, and if you don’t win you ain’t shit.

 

Edited October 10 by Bozo_Casanova

[Hank Kingsley 21,786]

9 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Part of the reason I think you’re going to see a lot of quiet Harris voters from the I and R folks—they are just tired and want him to go away. 

That's the hope. Unenthusiastic but reliable voters. 

Gotta think there are A LOT more Harris voters in the "let's just get this election over with" crowd. 

 

[Js1 87,187]

7 hours ago, The Dog said:

Apparently Texas poll also dropping tonight. Dunno why but they doing it anyway.

Phbt here’s the rest:

 

That makes a lot more sense than NYT Trump 13 in FL lol

YouGov also dropped a Harris +2 in PA

[chainsaw 10,295]

8 hours ago, The Dog said:

Apparently Texas poll also dropping tonight. Dunno why but they doing it anyway.

Phbt here’s the rest:

 

These numbers feel about right, for Texas. Those are insane for FL.

4 hours ago, LTbear said:

Unacceptable? Sincerely, you are an absolute moron. You're a borderline troll at this point. 

Great post

[Thatguy 9,369]

18 hours ago, chainsaw said:

No, but she's spent way too much time on the campaign trail focusing on all the conservatives who love her. Trying to appeal to conservatives is a waste of time. It didn't work for Hillary and I'm terrified it will backfire on Kamala. She locked up the Nevertrumper vote long ago.

The other Hillary strategy that I find to be a mistake is turning the election into a referendum on Trump. The recent messaging has been about 50% criticizing Trump and 50% "this is what I support." People are tired of Trump, and I think people begin to tune out when you talk about him, which is bad if your goal is to motivate people to vote.

Hillary lost because her last name is Clinton and she doesn't have the personality to overcome that. Full stop. What you seem to be missing is that progressive ideology won't win you THIS election because old people vote, and old Ds are more moderate than progressive. You go full progressive and you get killed in a landslide because Trump's numbers don't move. The only way forward is by convincing the Rs that are turned off from Trump that it is safe to vote for you.

Trump is a cult leader. You have to beat his 46-48% because he will not budge. You do that with a Walz running mate to win the plains folk. Stay moderate enough to get the turned off Rs to hold their nose and pull the lever for you. Hammer his ass with POCs and Women looking to get their autonomy back. She is going about it the right way. The issue is Trump is pulling a Reagan and circling back around and colluding with world leaders against this admin in regards to these wars, and these Hurricanes and the disinfo isn't helping at all.

Edited October 10 by Thatguy

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5,662]

18 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

There is some delicious irony about this being posted by a fucking former president of the united states, specifically about rating, with a huge "332 retruths and 1.22k likes" metric at the bottom to show how few people he's reaching. He's not even popular on his own tiny echo chamber, holy shit.

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5,662]

2 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

Hillary lost because her last name is Clinton and she doesn't have the personality to overcome that. Full stop. What you seem to be missing is that progressive ideology won't win you THIS election because old people vote, and old Ds are more moderate than progressive. You go full progressive and you get killed in a landslide because Trump's numbers don't move. The only way forward is by convincing the Rs that are turned off from Trump that it is safe to vote for you.

Trump is a cult leader. You have to beat his 46-48% because he will not budge. You do that with a Walz running mate to win the plains folk. Stay moderate enough to get the turned off Rs to hold their nose and pull the lever for you. Hammer his ass with POCs and Women looking to get their autonomy back. She is going about it the right way. The issue is Trump is pulling a Reagan and circling back around and colluding with world leaders against this admin in regards to these wars, and these Hurricanes and the disinfo isn't helping at all.

tl;dr for dumbasses: "vote with your heart in the primary, vote with your brain in the general"

[SydneyCarton 49,506]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Great, go get him and he can explain himself. While you’re at it you can explain why you, a progressive, were caping for Citizens United a few years back. Wasn’t it for “more freedom,” or something?
Electoral politics are about who, not what, and if you don’t win you ain’t shit.

 

Wait? Waspark championed Citizens United? Seriously?

4 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

There is some delicious irony about this being posted by a fucking former president of the united states, specifically about rating, with a huge "332 retruths and 1.22k likes" metric at the bottom to show how few people he's reaching. He's not even popular on his own tiny echo chamber, holy shit.

Well, to be fair, that's the screenshot from Truth. Which has like no users. Tell me what the views were when that screenshot was posted on whatever Twitter handle passes it along to the masses on twitter.

[Js1 87,187]

I mean, I think polling is pretty broken when 2 polls release within days and one says Trump +13 in FL and one says Trump +4 in FL

Like that shouldn’t happen. +4 and +6, yeah. But a 9 point difference says something is fundamentally wrong with the industry. 

[chainsaw 10,295]

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/donald-trump-kamala-harris-attack-ads-truth-test-keller/

Quote

The opinions expressed below are Jon Keller's, not those of WBZ, CBS News or Paramount Global.

BOSTON - In the race for president, the attack ads are coming fast and furious.

"It's hard to believe, but it's true," says the voice-over in a Trump for President ad that's airing nationwide. "Even the liberal media was shocked - Kamala supports taxpayer-funded sex changes for prisoners and illegal aliens."
Trump ad on Harris, transgender inmates  

That would be Vice President Kamala Harris they're referencing. And yes, it's hard to believe because it's very misleading.

The Trump ad uses a 2020 interview clip, in which Harris says she supports gender-affirming surgery for transgender prisoners who can demonstrate that their mental health depends on it. "Every transgender inmate in the prison system would have access," she said.

But they edit out the rest of her statement: "Every transgender inmate in the prison system would have access to the medical care that they desired and need."

That's what the Eighth Amendment to the Constitution requires, multiple courts have ruled. And there are just a few known cases of prisoners and none of "illegal aliens" receiving gender-affirming surgery.
Harris ad on Trump, Putin ties

Meanwhile, Harris is out with an attack ad of her own.

"Trump will always choose Putin over the American people, and now we have evidence," says the narrator over citations of reporter Bob Woodward's new book, "War."

"He secretly sent Putin COVID tests while withholding them from sick and dying Americans." Then the ad cuts to footage of then-President Trump saying, "so I said to my people, slow the testing down, please!"

Woodward also claims in his book that Trump has spoken with Putin multiple times since leaving the White House. But that's based on a single unnamed source and is - along with the COVID test claim - vehemently denied by the Trump campaign. For now, at least, it's Woodward's word against Trump's.

The Trump campaign is spending millions to air that ad because gender identity is a topic that galvanizes the right and, they believe, can raise doubts about Harris in the minds of other voters. It's so touchy the Harris campaign has refused to say that she's running on the same positions she took in that interview four years ago.

And as for the Harris ad, polls show a huge majority of Americans have a very negative view of Putin, so refreshing voters' suspicions about the ties between him and Trump also makes political sense.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, I think polling is pretty broken when 2 polls release within days and one says Trump +13 in FL and one says Trump +4 in FL

Like that shouldn’t happen. +4 and +6, yeah. But a 9 point difference says something is fundamentally wrong with the industry. 

I think it just shows the limits of this tool.  We are using a hacksaw to cut things that have to be measured in micrometers.  We live in a 50.1% world, and polls are made for 55-45s.

[miguelito 11,505]

4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

For now, at least, it's Woodward's word against Trump's

Didn't Putin come out and corroborate Woodward's story?

[chainsaw 10,295]

Marist FL poll was 513 R likely voters vs. 412 D likely voters vs. 309 Independent likely voters (568 R vs. 468 D vs. 350 I registered voters)

 

[Pato del Muerto 53,511]

4 minutes ago, miguelito said:

Didn't Putin come out and corroborate Woodward's story?

Yep. That should be amended and it’s trumps word against Woodward and putin’s. 

[chainsaw 10,295]

4 minutes ago, miguelito said:

Didn't Putin come out and corroborate Woodward's story?

You're right. It's more "both sides" media sanewashing

[Gap03 3,386]

15 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Mypillows selling for 1488 is I'm sure just a total coincidence.

 

MyPillow guy is apparently negotiable on the 14 words part, but he's all-fucking-in on the "Heil Hitler (Trump)" / 88 part.

Edited October 10 by Gap03

[chainsaw 10,295]

https://apnews.com/article/trump-campaign-donations-small-donors-decline-f1a6b238d15edb3f72260e4c86d2c552

Quote

Trump’s small-dollar donor fundraising is beset by confusion and fatigue

Quote

GOP operatives said the trend could portend trouble for the broader party. Trump’s fundraising dip raises questions about the party’s ability to continue tapping its aging base for funds. Such voters often live on fixed incomes and don’t have the extra cash to contribute to candidates, and polls have consistently found that the Republican base is growing older.

 

[Firemans4Horn 18,533]

9 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

https://apnews.com/article/trump-campaign-donations-small-donors-decline-f1a6b238d15edb3f72260e4c86d2c552

 

 

He can sell an unlimited amount of $100,000 piece of shit watches to the Saudis. 

[chainsaw 10,295]

9 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

 

He can sell an unlimited amount of $100,000 piece of shit watches to the Saudis. 

$DJT has been up

[heso 2,863]

35 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/donald-trump-kamala-harris-attack-ads-truth-test-keller/

I see the ad about trans inmates probably 15-20 times every football game. 

There are only two types of ads he plays up here. That one and a variety about illegals destroying everything. Raping, murdering, spreading fentanyl everywhere, but also taking up all of the jobs and houses. 

[6th Street 6,692]

When is the Trump N word tape coming out?

['stache 22,144]

2 minutes ago, heso said:

I see the ad about trans inmates probably 15-20 times every football game. 

There are only two types of ads he plays up here. That one and a variety about illegals destroying everything. Raping, murdering, spreading fentanyl everywhere, but also taking up all of the jobs and houses. 

Well he has a point, fentanyl used to be a poor white trash business, so they’re taking those jobs and forcing them to deal meth instead. It’s a tough time for the whites.

Edited October 10 by 'stache

[Snake Diggity 4,714]

Just now, 6th Street said:

When is the Trump N word tape coming out?

No one I know who is planning on voting for Trump would change their vote if a recording of him saying the N word was released.  It might energize Dem turnout but he’s not losing any votes saying the N word.

[The Dog 44,861]

Ok so this is what an engagement farming tweet looks like. I'm just posting the screen shot so it doesn't get any more interaction:

Now on face value you'd think that this means Nevada is overwhelmingly going to the GOP, right?

But guess what?

CLARK COUNTY HASN'T EVEN SENT OUT THEIR BALLOTS YET.

Why even post this other than to panic troll Democrats?

Edited October 10 by The Dog

[MissingInAction 25,558]

13 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

 

Not a screaming-on-the-corner kaffiyeh-clad nose-ring Poké-bowl-eating non-core-curriculum-knowing tech elf.

I feel targeted.

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5,662]

53 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, to be fair, that's the screenshot from Truth. Which has like no users. Tell me what the views were when that screenshot was posted on whatever Twitter handle passes it along to the masses on twitter.

See but that just proves the point. Trump has to use other people's popularity to pass along his message because he really doesn't have much outside of his core base of weirdos. People didn't follow him to truth social, because he has "low ratings."

[Js1 87,187]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Ok so this is what an engagement farming tweet looks like. I'm just posting the screen shot so it doesn't get any more interaction:

Now on face value you'd think that this means Nevada is overwhelmingly going to the GOP, right?

But guess what?

CLARK COUNTY HASN'T EVEN SENT OUT THEIR BALLOTS YET.

Why even post this other than to panic troll Democrats?

It’s def for clicks

Ralston even joked LANDSLIDE and then was like “lol no, that’s a joke, Clark hasn’t done anything yet”

[Pato del Muerto 53,511]

Also the total is 4000. So it’s net 600 to R excluding Other.  Maybe those % are about right for Nevada minus Vegas?  But it’s still a tiny delta at present. 

[Js1 87,187]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Also the total is 4000. So it’s net 600 to R excluding Other.  Maybe those % are about right for Nevada minus Vegas?  But it’s still a tiny delta at present. 

Usually outside of Clark, it’s overwhelmingly R. Except Reno is like 50/50 the last few cycles 

Ralston will usually do his analysis where Dems and GOP win 92-95% of those ballots and then if the indie vote is 55/45 either way and 50/50. But way too soon to read anything into these numbers 

Again, looking at the data without Clark is like analyzing Georgia without Atlanta or Wisconsin without Milwaukee. It’s pointless click bait engagement. 

[6th Street 6,692]

12 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

No one I know who is planning on voting for Trump would change their vote if a recording of him saying the N word was released.  It might energize Dem turnout but he’s not losing any votes saying the N word.

Fair. It might actually end up being a positive for him

[dcbc 14,644]

39 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

 

MyPillow guy is apparently negotiable on the 14 words part, but he's all-fucking-in on the "Heil Hitler (Trump)" / 88 part.

I had to look that up, and now I'm ragey for the rest of the day with the knowledge that not only does this moronic shit exist, but also that this imbecile is somehow still selling those awful, nazi-pillows.

[chainsaw 10,295]

27 minutes ago, heso said:

I see the ad about trans inmates probably 15-20 times every football game. 

There are only two types of ads he plays up here. That one and a variety about illegals destroying everything. Raping, murdering, spreading fentanyl everywhere, but also taking up all of the jobs and houses. 

This data (and the results from 2022) tells me that focusing on transphobia is a very dumb strategy. Maybe the ads tested well with focus groups.

['stache 22,144]

26 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Ok so this is what an engagement farming tweet looks like. I'm just posting the screen shot so it doesn't get any more interaction:

Now on face value you'd think that this means Nevada is overwhelmingly going to the GOP, right?

But guess what?

CLARK COUNTY HASN'T EVEN SENT OUT THEIR BALLOTS YET.

Why even post this other than to panic troll Democrats?

I thought voting by mail was fraud? They should probably just invalidate the republican ballots.

[Js1 87,187]

Wild won that 51-49 in 2022 and 49.7-49.1 Biden in 2020 under current lines

More good district level polling 

Edited October 10 by Js1