2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

repeated claims on here that media promotes 50-50 as it generates clicks.  biggest evidence against that: 2016 and 2020 were not promoted as 50-50s, even though they probably should have been.  Clinton has 71% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ Biden has 89% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

why did these pundits suddenly realize 50-50 generates more clicks?  biden was never close to 50-50 the whole year, clinton pinched down toward 50-50 twice, but spent much more time in the 75% range.

[wildcat09 29,323]

5 hours ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

I'm so sorry for this woman, but honestly this line:

“That is the sole reason that I’m voting for her,” Victoria said. “I’m 30 years old going through this.”

Honestly? Kinda fuck her for that. That's the ONLY reason you found to not vote for trump, because it personally affected you? Well my brown ass has been catching racist splatter from trump's rifle since 2016. Sorry you had to lose a baby before you realized the orange dipshit was hurting people, but perhaps you should take from this that shit that sucks doesn't just suck for you. There are so, so many reasons to not vote for trump if you give just even a tiny shit about anybody else who isn't you.

Yeah it sucks that so many people are like this, but that's how it is. And if we want to win and enact policies that we like, we need to win a bunch of votes from voters like this. The good news is it can be done without actually substantively watering down the policies we champion out of a misguided effort at triangulation, because these voters don't know shit about policy. They want someone who they think will care about them and they want to support candidates and policies they think are popular. It's really that simple. 

Edited October 10 by wildcat09

[Pancho 44,656]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Agreeing to gender affirmation surgery for prisoners or govt-issued insured recipients, is a loser issue for Dems. Most Americans struggle with this issue and believe it's not a life saving treatment especially for prisoners. Dems should be clear that tax dollars won't go to federal prisoners for these treatments.

 

Dems don’t need to be “clear” about their position on this because no one is talking about it. 

[wildcat09 29,323]

The last fucking thing Dems need to do is let Trump dictate the conversation. Jesus Christ, Eddie.

[Js1 85,223]

10 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Dems don’t need to be “clear” about their position on this because no one is talking about it. 

THIS. Dems do not have to respond to every fucking weird accusation Trump makes.  Don't give it life. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,408]

22 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Ever since Dobbs.  It's like it mattered or something.

What pisses me off is that every single pollster knows this yet people like Frank Luntz are back again telling us how this is 50/50 despite Harris leading and then factoring in the hidden Dobbs vote.  Abortion doesn't show up in polling because people are lying about it.  There's no other explanation.

There are other explanations. We certainly hope that there is a “hidden Dobbs vote,” and there is reason to believe that, but we don’t know it.
Trump support could also be undercounted by 3, which has also been true in the past.
Also - polling has been off by an average of 2-3pts over the last five presidential elections. 
If Harris gets a normal miss in her favor in the swing states (more or less consistent with post Dobbs results), she wins 312-350 EVs, and puts another 20-30 
If Trump gets a normal miss in his favor (which has been historically the case) he gets around 300.

And of course if the polls are exactly correct right now she would win 279 EVs, but then it’s a jump ball and there are certification fights. 

No matter what happens on Election Day, it’s going to be pretty grim between 11/5 and mid February. But the important thing for Democrats right now is to stop fretting about why Trump support isn’t collapsing and focus on GOTV. He’s more likely to be behind than ahead right now and I’d rather be in our shoes than theirs.

[Tuco 5,076]

8 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The last fucking thing Dems need to do is let Trump dictate the conversation. Jesus Christ, Eddie.

Yeah, I don't want Harris to be parsing out how much she supports human rights for trans people or prisoners. 1) she is (hopefully) more progressive than the average voter 2) it's not really something I want to see her negotiate on, 3)the average voter will eventually change, 4) for anyone for which it is a deal breaker, they will have dozens of other excuses to not vote for her.  Nobody is looking at their ballot saying "hm, economy, abortion, and prisoner sex changes - those are my issues." 

[Js1 85,223]

CNN has now pivoted October 23 to dueling town halls instead of a debate, since Trump has said no more.

Harris said yes, Trump hasn't responded

New YorkCNN — 

With former President Donald Trump ruling out any more presidential debates between now and Election Day, CNN shifting course Thursday and invited both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris to participate in town hall events with voters.

Harris immediately accepted the network’s invitation.

“Trump may want to hide from the voters, but Vice President Harris welcomes the opportunity to share her vision for a New Way Forward for the country. She is happy to accept CNN’s invitation for a live, televised town hall on October 23 in Pennsylvania,” Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said in a statement.

The network said the town halls will take place before a live audience of persuadable and undecided voters from Pennsylvania.

“We continue to believe the American people would benefit from hearing more from the two major candidates for President of the United States and so CNN has extended invitations to both Vice President Harris and President Trump’s campaigns to participate in separate CNN Town Halls on October 23,” CNN said in a statement on Thursday.

The network previously proposed a debate between Harris and Trump in Atlanta on October 23. Harris quickly accepted the invite, but Trump repeatedly shrugged it off, despite the Harris campaign’s attempts to goad him into participating.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,408]

Oh, and this is important- from the great Jane Coaston

 

[Celery Man 20,923]

Saw one of these today in North Raleigh, lol

 

it is remarkable how much more Harris/walz stuff there is. Raleigh is blue but it’s a coalition of just enough black people and j crew whites to outbalance the southern heritage whites. And as far as signs, I see more of the moms for liberty school board wackjobs than Trump.

[Js1 85,223]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Oh, and this is important- from the great Jane Coaston

 

One thing I did thing was important - 

If Trump thinks he's winning bigly, then why did he say Harris should drop out over the 60 Minutes interview?

His Truth Social meltdowns always tell the story more than what campaign insiders say.  Their job is to project confidence - we are winning! Bigly!  The polls we doctor to show Trump show him winning with yuge margins.

Then Trump goes on social media and declares Harris should be disqualified or should drop out for XYZ reasons.  Why bother if you're "winning?" 

[bolverk 29,628]

3 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The last fucking thing Dems need to do is let Trump dictate the conversation. Jesus Christ, Eddie.

Your post has some typos/missing words, but I think what you were trying to say is that Dems do a poor job of communicating how their policies are relevant to people's daily lives. That, I'd agree with.

A year or two ago, I made an off-the-cuff post about how the Dems should place their affirmative policy principles in four different, easily understood buckets with self-reinforcing goals and actions. Since I like alliteration, I called them the four Es: 

• Equality/Equity: Everyone has an equal opportunity in healthcare, the job market, education, housing, and voting. 
• Education: An educated population makes better decisions at the ballot box and is more productive.
• Economy: Wide prosperity is best achieved in a regulated marketplace that ensures competition, fair play, and stability. 
• Environment: None of the other shit matters if we don't have clean air to breathe, clean water to drink, and a climate that isn't heading for catastrophe.

I know it's not perfect, and some might have quibbles with the precise buckets, but I think it's a solid platform that can be easily explained, digested, and defended.

[TexasEd 8,066]

43 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

THAT'S THE FUCKING POINT. THE ENTIRE POINT OF TRUTH SOCIAL WAS DONALD TRUMP SAYING "FUCK IT, I'LL BUILD MY OWN AND EVERYONE WILL FOLLOW" AND NOBODY FOLLOWED. DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T BRING IN THE RATINGS.

Exactly.

I think of it as that stupid tv show you might pause on if switching the channel and see it but only the few people that go to his rallies are tuning in on purpose.

The fact that his message is copied over to twitter is the only thing that makes him relevant.  If that wasn’t happening his reach craters.

[G650 14,212]

1 minute ago, Celery Man said:

Saw one of these today in North Raleigh, lol

 

it is remarkable how much more Harris/walz stuff there is. Raleigh is blue but it’s a coalition of just enough black people and j crew whites to outbalance the southern heritage whites. And as far as signs, I see more of the moms for liberty school board wackjobs than Trump.

There's one of these in my neighborhood apparently as of yesterday, my wife mentioned it to me.

[wildcat09 29,323]

9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

There are other explanations. We certainly hope that there is a “hidden Dobbs vote,” and there is reason to believe that, but we don’t know it.
Trump support could also be undercounted by 3, which has also been true in the past.
Also - polling has been off by an average of 2-3pts over the last five presidential elections. 
If Harris gets a normal miss in her favor in the swing states (more or less consistent with post Dobbs results), she wins 312-350 EVs, and puts another 20-30 
If Trump gets a normal miss in his favor (which has been historically the case) he gets around 300.

And of course if the polls are exactly correct right now she would win 279 EVs, but then it’s a jump ball and there are certification fights. 

No matter what happens on Election Day, it’s going to be pretty grim between 11/5 and mid February. But the important thing for Democrats right now is to stop fretting about why Trump support isn’t collapsing and focus on GOTV. He’s more likely to be behind than ahead right now and I’d rather be in our shoes than theirs.

The main reason I think the polls are overestimating Trump and underestimating Harris is that there are no other indicators really that he's even close at this point. His small dollar fundraising sucks, the enthusiasm with his base is clearly down, they've got no serious GOTV operation to speak of, etc. I'm concerned about the senate, and I'm concerned that they may be able to keep it close enough in few enough states to give SCOTUS a pretext to try to throw it to him, but there's literally no reason to think he's actually seriously competitive in the EC right now other than a bunch of polls being run by people openly saying "look this has a high MOE and we really have no fucking idea" because polling is obviously broken due to the myriad reasons we've discussed over and over here. 

[Js1 85,223]

Skeletor (Kellyanne Conway)'s polling firm has Harris up 2 nationally.  So probably more like 4-5

[wildcat09 29,323]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Oh, and this is important- from the great Jane Coaston

 

 

 

[Foosters 17,799]

20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

THIS. Dems do not have to respond to every fucking weird accusation Trump makes.  Don't give it life. 

I've seen tons of the Kamala Trans prison commercials on TV in CA. Which seems like an odd way to spend your money. 

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5,388]

10 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Saw one of these today in North Raleigh, lol

 

 

 

[wildcat09 29,323]

1 minute ago, Foosters said:

I've seen tons of the Kamala Trans prison commercials on TV in CA. Which seems like an odd way to spend your money. 

I seriously think it's because all their money is coming from Elon and the rest of the paypal mafia, who are all obsessed with their hatred of trans people and think the anti-trans shit works politically.

It's probably not a good idea to rely so heavily on a group of people who thought Blake Masters would appeal to voters.  

[High Plains Drifter 11,013]

On 10/8/2024 at 8:32 PM, Stros121 said:

Guy, machete and meat

 

 

So, Stros, electrocution or shark?

 

 

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5,388]

1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

I seriously think it's because all their money is coming from Elon and the rest of the paypal mafia, who are all obsessed with their hatred of trans people and think the anti-trans shit works politically.

It's probably not a good idea to rely so heavily on a group of people who thought Blake Masters would appeal to voters.  

to clarify, Elon hates transpeople, because he hates his own children.

[chainsaw 9,841]

9 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Saw one of these today in North Raleigh, lol

 

it is remarkable how much more Harris/walz stuff there is. Raleigh is blue but it’s a coalition of just enough black people and j crew whites to outbalance the southern heritage whites. And as far as signs, I see more of the moms for liberty school board wackjobs than Trump.

 

[Sawbonz 27,514]

13 hours ago, Brandywine said:

He really should be on suicide watch

[chainsaw 9,841]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I seriously think it's because all their money is coming from Elon and the rest of the paypal mafia, who are all obsessed with their hatred of trans people and think the anti-trans shit works politically.

It's probably not a good idea to rely so heavily on a group of people who thought Blake Masters would appeal to voters.  

If I had to hazard a guess, there's a non negligible number of Arizona residents who commute to work or otherwise spend a lot of time in California media markets. Probably orange county landlords who think they're avoiding CA tax rates.

[Aqua Buddha 14,581]

7 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I seriously think it's because all their money is coming from Elon and the rest of the paypal mafia, who are all obsessed with their hatred of trans people and think the anti-trans shit works politically.

It's probably not a good idea to rely so heavily on a group of people who thought Blake Masters would appeal to voters.  

They went hard to the paint in 22 with trans, library books, etc., and no one gave a shit.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,408]

44 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The last fucking thing Dems need to do is let Trump dictate the conversation. Jesus Christ, Eddie.

No, but they should be laughing at it, calling him names, and attacking media for adopting Republican framing.

For example- 

“You've called President Trump a racist, but the polls say he’s got 46-48% of the vote. Why?”

”that’s a dumb question. First, Donald Trump is a racist, and that’s why I called him that, but  I’ll give him credit for one thing: he has conned a lot of good people into believing his bullshit. That’s too bad. 
But you know better. I know you do. And with all due respect, for the life of me I can’t understand why you would get this interview and use your time to ask me to play Dr Phil for my opponent’s supporters. Trump a racist old fool who makes no sense when he talks.

Next question.”

Edited October 10 by Bozo_Casanova

[Celery Man 20,923]

7 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

[chainsaw 9,841]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

No, but they should be laughing at it, calling him names, and attacking media for adopting Republican framing.

For example- 

“You've called President Trump a racist, but the polls say he’s got 46-48% of the vote. Why?”

”that’s a dumb question. First, Donald Trump is a racist, and that’s why I called him that, but  I’ll give him credit for one thing: he has conned a lot of good people into believing his bullshit. That’s too bad. 
But you know better. I know you do. And with all due respect, for the life of me I can’t understand why you would get this interview and use your time to ask me to play Dr Phil for my opponent’s supporters.

Next question.”

Arguably the best answer she's given:

 

[wildcat09 29,323]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

No, but they should be laughing at it, calling him names, and attacking media for adopting Republican framing.

For example- 

“You've called President Trump a racist, but the polls say he’s got 46-48% of the vote. Why?”

”that’s a dumb question. First, Donald Trump is a racist, and that’s why I called him that, but  I’ll give him credit for one thing: he has conned a lot of good people into believing his bullshit. That’s too bad. 
But you know better. I know you do. And with all due respect, for the life of me I can’t understand why you would get this interview and use your time to ask me to play Dr Phil for my opponent’s supporters.

Next question.”

You're preaching to the choir here. 

If I ever win the lotto, I'm running for President just for the chance to publicly dunk on the dumbest political journalists.

[TexasEd 8,066]

50 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Yeah it sucks that so many people are like this, but that's how it is. And if we want to win and enact policies that we like, we not need to win a bunch of votes from voters like this. The good news is it can be done without actually substantively watering down the policies we champion out of a misguided effort at triangulation, because these voters don't know shit about policy. They want someone who they think will care about them and they want to support candidates and policies they think are popular. It's really that simple. 

Kind of reminds me of the scene in World War Z when they say that they are letting in the healthy people because it’s one less Z they will have to kill.

This was right before the music woke up the mob of Z and they climbed over the 300 foot wall.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,408]

1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

You're preaching to the choir here. 

If I ever win the lotto, I'm running for President just for the chance to publicly dunk on the dumbest political journalists.

Seriously. It costs zero votes and it’s fun.

[Js1 85,223]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

No, but they should be laughing at it, calling him names, and attacking media for adopting Republican framing.

For example- 

“You've called President Trump a racist, but the polls say he’s got 46-48% of the vote. Why?”

”that’s a dumb question. First, Donald Trump is a racist, and that’s why I called him that, but  I’ll give him credit for one thing: he has conned a lot of good people into believing his bullshit. That’s too bad. 
But you know better. I know you do. And with all due respect, for the life of me I can’t understand why you would get this interview and use your time to ask me to play Dr Phil for my opponent’s supporters. Trump a racist old fool who makes no sense when he talks.

Next question.”

Huge reason why Harris is not giving cable news, Sunday shows, NYT/WaPo the time of day.

It's all gotcha questions or they just want to talk about Trump.  

[Aqua Buddha 14,581]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

You're preaching to the choir here. 

If I ever win the lotto, I'm running for President just for the chance to publicly dunk on the dumbest political journalists.

Like the 60 Minutes guy who was surprised that Harris shot her own gun.

[Loch Ness Monster 3,533]

The Teamsters union guy that has over 1 million Americans under him was on Theo's podcast. Know he's hated among Democrats because he didn't fall in line but he said his members are pretty split on the Presidency. He's not a hardcore Trumper or anything. He loves Bernie Sanders.

Mainly said they've donated 6x more to the Dems and feel like they aren't being listened to as the Dems are now bought off by big corporations as well.

Mentioned Amazon screwing over their employees and Democrats not listening.

Maybe I'm an idiot but there are apparently millions of Americans that believe in climate change, fair pay, quality education and healthcare for all Americans. 

Kamala saying we are gonna have the most lethal military in the world and here's Dick Cheney is dumb. I'm still gonna vote for Kamala though obviously.

[LCHorn 2,611]

19 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

His small dollar fundraising sucks, the enthusiasm with his base is clearly down, they've got no serious GOTV operation to speak of, etc.

I don’t agree with this position, but let me rebut this or play devil’s advocate.  Let’s suggest that Trump, for reasons examined exhaustively (sorry, @bolverk has me fixated on “e’s”) doesn’t need boots on the ground, small dollar fundraising, or even solutions to real problems (at least in comparison to candidate X).  A huge swath of the electorate has already made up their minds and he has their vote and the polling is keying on the durability of that support.  Harris’s is more volatile because parts of her coalition are still making up their minds (like Arab Americans in MI). 
 

I think we have a tendency to over focus on the candidate and not the voters.  

[wildcat09 29,323]

Biden's administration has been the most pro-labor administration since fucking FDR and Sean O'Brien is probably being blackmailed by Trump. 

[Pancho 44,656]

This. People just want Election Day to hurry up and get here 

 

[Js1 85,223]

Just now, LCHorn said:

I don’t agree with this position, but let me rebut this or play devil’s advocate.  Let’s suggest that Trump, for reasons examined exhaustively (sorry, @bolverk has me fixated on “e’s”) doesn’t need boots on the ground, small dollar fundraising, or even solutions to real problems (at least in comparison to candidate X).  A huge swath of the electorate has already made up their minds and he has their vote and the polling is keying on the durability of that support.  Harris’s is more volatile because parts of her coalition are still making up their minds (like Arab Americans in MI). 
 

I think we have a tendency to over focus on the candidate and not the voters.  

Ground game fucking matters.  You have to get voter to the polls. 

Dems eschewed traditional ground game in 2020 because of COVID and look what happened.  @Bateshorn has mentioned this before. 

A lot of Trump's polling "leads" are based on extremely unreliable voters (young men, especially young Latino and black men, and WWC voters).  You have to be in contact with them to get them to the polls.  Trump has none of them - no canvassers, no ground game, nada. 

Because that costs money and we all know where the money for that is going. 

[Js1 85,223]

Just now, Pancho said:

This. People just want Election Day to hurry up and get here 

 

And this is why I laughed at the Q-Pac polls yesterday.  NOTHING has happened to dictate MI/WI swinging 6-9 points to Trump since their last polls.  Or FL going double digits to Trump unless Dem turnout collapses like 2022 Florida, which isn't going to happen with a competitive Senate race and weed/abortion on the ballot. 

It has been a remarkably stable race.  The swing state polling is broken. 

We aren't bored.  We are tired, boss. 

[tx 3 putt 76,773]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

This. People just want Election Day to hurry up and get here 

 

 

im ready to vote 6 months ago 

[Firemans4Horn 18,023]

6 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

The Teamsters union guy that has over 1 million Americans under him was on Theo's podcast. Know he's hated among Democrats because he didn't fall in line but he said his members are pretty split on the Presidency. He's not a hardcore Trumper or anything. He loves Bernie Sanders.

Mainly said they've donated 6x more to the Dems and feel like they aren't being listened to as the Dems are now bought off by big corporations as well.

Mentioned Amazon screwing over their employees and Democrats not listening.

Maybe I'm an idiot but there are apparently millions of Americans that believe in climate change, fair pay, quality education and healthcare for all Americans. 

Kamala saying we are gonna have the most lethal military in the world and here's Dick Cheney is dumb. I'm still gonna vote for Kamala though obviously.

Did he talk about the $36bn bailout the central states teamsters pension received from the Biden administration? If not, sounds like he should educate his members on that. 

[Loch Ness Monster 3,533]

4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Biden's administration has been the most pro-labor administration since fucking FDR and Sean O'Brien is probably being blackmailed by Trump. 

He said Biden was awesome for unions. He's not bought off by Trump he just wants unionization across the USA.

[LCHorn 2,611]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ground game fucking matters.  You have to get voter to the polls. 

Bear in mind I agree with you and @wildcat09 (I think the polls are over-representing Trump’s support), but honestly that position isn’t helpful in trying to maintain a healthy skepticism that this is all going to turn out okay.  
 

Anyway, I would posit that ground game, as we traditionally think of it, does matter, but it matters more to Dems.  The Republicans just have an advantage currently with a greater proportion of reliable voters.  

[Js1 85,223]

Just now, LCHorn said:

he Republicans just have an advantage currently with a greater proportion of reliable voters.  

They have more *committed* voters, but *reliable* voters are college-educated, suburban and female.  3 demographics that Harris is doing better with than Biden.  Republicans dominated midterms for years on the back of college-educated and suburban voters, especially suburban women.  They always turn up to vote.

Those committed voters still have to show up.  That's why the ground game is important.  

[Bateshorn 9,922]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ground game fucking matters.  You have to get voter to the polls. 

Dems eschewed traditional ground game in 2020 because of COVID and look what happened.  @Bateshorn has mentioned this before. 

A lot of Trump's polling "leads" are based on extremely unreliable voters (young men, especially young Latino and black men, and WWC voters).  You have to be in contact with them to get them to the polls.  Trump has none of them - no canvassers, no ground game, nada. 

Because that costs money and we all know where the money for that is going. 

There's a reason the Dems are deploying like every famous black politician to Detroit, as well as putting in even more money to work the turnout machine, they realize you gotta knock those doors like 100 times to get low propensity voters to actually show up and do their thing. 

[LCHorn 2,611]

11 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Mentioned Amazon screwing over their employees and Democrats not listening.

 

He’s not wrong about Amazon.  I chose not to do this, but I could have had a $1.50 roll of tree marking tape delivered to me for free (as a Prime member) overnight last night.  There’s externalities clearly not getting captured by price, including creating a work environment for their delivery drivers that gives them accommodations for bathroom breaks.  

[tx 3 putt 76,773]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ground game fucking matters.  You have to get voter to the polls. 

 

thats the whorl deal, getting your people to show up and vote 

[Pato del Muerto 52,462]

Would love to shrink the window for campaigns down to 120 or 180 days, with the conferences and nominees selected about halfway through. At least the public facing portion. 
Americans don’t have the attention span for a 24 month campaign season, it’s a waste of resources. 

Same thing as laws or bylaws stating no political yard signs except within x days of an election. 

Edited October 10 by Pato del Muerto

[Red Five 40,777]

44 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Saw one of these today in North Raleigh, lol

 

it is remarkable how much more Harris/walz stuff there is. Raleigh is blue but it’s a coalition of just enough black people and j crew whites to outbalance the southern heritage whites. And as far as signs, I see more of the moms for liberty school board wackjobs than Trump.

I see upside down world is humming along nicely. Kamala was a prosecutor and DA, and Trump is a felon. Other than that, nailed it.