2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[wildcat09 29583]

4 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Bear in mind I agree with you and @wildcat09 (I think the polls are over-representing Trump’s support), but honestly that position isn’t helpful in trying to maintain a healthy skepticism that this is all going to turn out okay.  
 

Anyway, I would posit that ground game, as we traditionally think of it, does matter, but it matters more to Dems.  The Republicans just have an advantage currently with a greater proportion of reliable voters.  

That's not really the case anymore. They traded those voters for Trump-only voters, and even with Trump on the ballot many of those voters don't seem very enthused this year. His signs aren't everywhere, they're not holding stupid boat parades, they're not forming stupid convoys trying to run Harris campaign people off the road, etc. Shit, they're not even filling his rallies and those that do show up leave early. Trump doesn't have the energy any more so neither do they.

[Js1 87187]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Would love to shrink the window for campaigns down to 120 or 180 days, with the conferences and nominees selected about halfway through. At least the public facing portion. 
Americans don’t have the attention span for a 24 month campaign season, it’s a waste of resources. 
 

If Harris wins, it will be the biggest argument that a condensed 3.5 month campaign absolutely works.  But every state wants their special moment in the sun during the grueling 5-6 month primary season so they can make bank with tv ads, campaigns booking security details, hotels, etc., then we have 2 months until the conventions, then 3 months until the election.

And that's not even getting, like you said, into basically everyone who wants to run announcing the day after the midterms. 

 

[SydneyCarton 49506]

1 hour ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

THAT'S THE FUCKING POINT. THE ENTIRE POINT OF TRUTH SOCIAL WAS DONALD TRUMP SAYING "FUCK IT, I'LL BUILD MY OWN AND EVERYONE WILL FOLLOW" AND NOBODY FOLLOWED. DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T BRING IN THE RATINGS.

You're being dense AF dude. Trump's a narcisisist, sure. He thought everyone would follow him, maybe. Becuase he's stupid. He also didn't have a fucking choice, no other platform would have him, and he saw a chance for Grift. Which has paid off handsomely for him, I might point out. But I digress. 

You're sitting here and saying the Superbowl getting 150 million eyeballs on NBC but for someone reason only 1 million eyeballs streaming exclusively on the Hallmark App proves that the Superbowl doesn't bring in the ratings is...it's something. 

Edited October 10 by SydneyCarton

[locodos 5591]

1 hour ago, Horndog said:

I'd watch. 

sure sure,  but what would the ads be like?   My Final pillow? Taco Bell, all kinds of catsups/ketchups, oh and official MAGA mourning wear.

[Js1 87187]

Trump's pollster (Fabrizio) internals have him up 1 in MI/WI/PA/NC.  That is uh, not really good, since internals are usually 3-4 points more favorable towards you than they should be.

[locodos 5591]

45 minutes ago, G650 said:

There's one of these in my neighborhood apparently as of yesterday, my wife mentioned it to me.

What'd she want you to do about it?   New house or old house?  Because that might make a difference.

[Pato del Muerto 53512]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

That's not really the case anymore. They traded those voters for Trump-only voters, and even with Trump on the ballot many of those voters don't seem very enthused this year. His signs aren't everywhere, they're not holding stupid boat parades, they're not forming stupid convoys trying to run Harris campaign people off the road, etc. Shit, they're not even filling his rallies and those that do show up leave early. Trump doesn't have the energy any more so neither do they.

Single anecdote but I saw a truck yesterday with 5 big flags on it:

marine corps

appeal to heaven

American flag

back the blue american flag 

Gadsden flag

have to think that person is an R voter, but no trump flag. 

[G650 14438]

2 minutes ago, locodos said:

What'd she want you to do about it?   New house or old house?  Because that might make a difference.

 

Oh nothing, the actual quote was something along the lines of "Did you see the sign that shithead on the corner of Maryland and Caribbean put out now?" To which I said I hadn't because I came in the neighborhood the other way yesterday.

 

Edited October 10 by G650

[G650 14438]

I mean I'm glad you guys aren't seeing as much Trump stuff out, but that shit is on steroids here this year.

[SydneyCarton 49506]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Single anecdote but I saw a truck yesterday with 5 big flags on it:

marine corps

appeal to heaven

American flag

back the blue american flag 

Gadsden flag

have to think that person is an R voter, but no trump flag. 

Lol. 100% a trump voter and I'd argue several of those are worse than a Trump flag. 

Trumpers have become ashamed, even the strident ones. But they're still voting for him. 

Appeal to heaven:
 

Quote

In the 2020s, the flag was flown at events attended by various far-right groups including a Christian nationalist strand of Donald Trump's "Stop the Steal" movement.^[20][21]

In May 2024, news outlets reported that the flag had been flown at the vacation home of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito in 2023. This drew media attention because of the flag's use by "Stop the Steal" supporters.^[20][22][23] The justice stated that his wife had displayed the flag, referred to the historic background of the symbol, and refused to recuse himself from ongoing cases involving the 2020 United States presidential election.^[24][25]

 

[heso 2863]

3 hours ago, chainsaw said:

This data (and the results from 2022) tells me that focusing on transphobia is a very dumb strategy. Maybe the ads tested well with focus groups.

The transphobia ad is the stock ad for live sports. I assume it tests well with the anti-lgbt men. 

on non-sports tv the anti-immigrant ads are the default. Scaring the least Hispanic part of the country that it’s just a matter of time until we’re overrun. I assume that’s why they pushed the Springfield story so hard. To scare white people that don’t know any brown people. 

[The Dog 44861]

55 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Oh, and this is important- from the great Jane Coaston

 

what the heck is that supposed to mean?

[SydneyCarton 49506]

Just now, The Dog said:

what the heck is that supposed to mean?

I read it as:

When we look back on this election, we'll remember that Democrats always panic, and Republicans even when getting pistol-whipped will insist they're going to win and that their policies are universally popular. But today is not the day for reflection, today is the day that democrats panic. 

[locodos 5591]

2 minutes ago, G650 said:

I mean I'm glad you guys aren't seeing as much Trump stuff out, but that shit is on steroids here this year.

In the home of Pat Robertson, the 700 club, CBN university, Jerry Fallwell, Edgar Casey, and a shit load of Military?

Someone get the fainting couch!  

[ConferenceRoom 6214]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

what the heck is that supposed to mean?

Today is not only Mental Health Day but also Vote 35 Times in Each Swing State Day. Very mindful. Very demure.

[Red Five 41742]

Lulz, a reporter asked Biden about Trump's FEMA lies. "Get a life man, and help these people."

Edit: That was poorly written. Biden was saying that of Trump, not the reporter. Which would have also been funny.

Edited October 10 by Red Five

[Pancho 46327]

 

[Celery Man 21098]

18 minutes ago, G650 said:

I mean I'm glad you guys aren't seeing as much Trump stuff out, but that shit is on steroids here this year.

Iirc you’re in Virginia Beach or Nahfuck or something like that - are you surrounded by military? Although based on the value of your  most expensive guitar I’d also assume you’re not in a neighborhood with a camaro in every driveway.

Edited October 10 by Celery Man

[TexEx15 17953]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

repeated claims on here that media promotes 50-50 as it generates clicks.  biggest evidence against that: 2016 and 2020 were not promoted as 50-50s, even though they probably should have been.  Clinton has 71% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ Biden has 89% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

why did these pundits suddenly realize 50-50 generates more clicks?  biden was never close to 50-50 the whole year, clinton pinched down toward 50-50 twice, but spent much more time in the 75% range.

My thought:

2016 was a grotesque car wreck the likes of which we had never seen. Eyeballs and clicks were baked in.

2020 Trump was the incumbent and again it was unprecedented with everyone wondering what was going to happen. Eyeballs and clicks were baked in.

2024 Fatigue. Everyone knows what Trump is and you are either voting for him or not. The eyeballs and clicks are not baked in. UNLESS pundits tell us we have a horse race.

[RDCanecutter 26896]

4 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

I feel targeted.

Not you. You're one of the Good Ones.

[G650 14438]

10 minutes ago, locodos said:

In the home of Pat Robertson, the 700 club, CBN university, Jerry Fallwell, Edgar Casey, and a shit load of Military?

Someone get the fainting couch!  

 

Yeah a lot of surprised pickachu faces.

 

My neighbor down the street at my current place has this 40' Fountain, which I'm not sure he actually owns as I know his general situation, emblazoned with massive letters saying Trump Train. He has been strategically placing it all over town. Came by on water by my new house last weekend.

[washparkhorn 9973]

The Trump lumpen proletariat should be sharpening their pitchforks. Instead they think of their orange god as a savior. 
 

 

https://itep.org/a-distributional-analysis-of-donald-trumps-tax-plan-2024/
 

[heso 2863]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

Dems don’t need to be “clear” about their position on this because no one is talking about it. 

If you watch football in PA you’d think it was the single biggest issue in this election. 

[locodos 5591]

2 minutes ago, G650 said:

My neighbor down the street at my current place has this 40' Fountain, which I'm not sure he actually owns as I know his general situation, emblazoned with massive letters saying Trump Train. He has been strategically placing it all over town. Came by on water by my new house last weekend.

Well you don't expect him to take it offshore do you?  It's rough out there.  It's damned near impossible to keep the strippers and your toupee in the boat!

[G650 14438]

7 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Iirc you’re in Virginia Beach or Nahfuck or something like that - are you surrounded by military? Although based on the value of your  most expensive guitar I’d also assume you’re not in a neighborhood with a camaro in every driveway.

 

Virginia Beach. I'm actually in the process of moving as we speak, we just bought a house around the corner on the water, but my current neighborhood probably has a median house price of 750k these days I'd say? So no one is hanging an engine block from the tree in the front yard, no. But my neighbor on the right has MAGA paraphernalia out 24/7 since 2016, and there's a couple other big Trumpers. If I took a wild guess I'd say my hood was 60/40 R/D. It's pretty much upper middle land.

 

We do have a lot of military in the region, 7 bases in a 60 mile radius or so, but the oceanfront is not as much a hotbed of that. Shore Dr., where @locodos is from, and Red Mill which is south and inland a bit are the real military loci.

[G650 14438]

3 minutes ago, locodos said:

It's damned near impossible to keep the strippers and your toupee in the boat!

 

Garrett tends to have the day shift strippers on the boat, you know the ones with C section scars.

 

I forgot to mention, he is the guy who is still driving the Cadillac pickup, unironically.

[ultimaton 2985]

1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

 

 

To be fair, in Trump-time 2016 feels like it was 100 years ago.

Edited October 10 by ultimaton

[Satchel 6982]

23 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

It won't be.  It was never going to be.  And that has nothing to do with who the Dems run.

It has everything to do with how basically and essentially shitty we are as a country and society.

Liberal Jesus himself could run against Trump, and Trump would get 47% of the vote.  

No minds will be changed.  All anyone can do is play the turnout game.

Of the 240 million Americans eligible to vote, the expectation is that only 160 million of us actually will.

[Bateshorn 9991]

18 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

Yeah a lot of surprised pickachu faces.

 

My neighbor down the street at my current place has this 40' Fountain, which I'm not sure he actually owns as I know his general situation, emblazoned with massive letters saying Trump Train. He has been strategically placing it all over town. Came by on water by my new house last weekend.

Not to thread jack: But walk me through the why of a $300K boat. Espcially one that doesn't have any sun cover (or at least minimal minimal for a center consol (that's what they are called right?).  That's a lot of cheese, man.

[Pato del Muerto 53512]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Not to thread jack: But walk me through the why of a $300K boat. Espcially one that doesn't have any sun cover (or at least minimal minimal for a center consol (that's what they are called right?).  That's a lot of cheese, man.

Because boats n hoes

[locodos 5591]

12 minutes ago, G650 said:

Garrett tends to have the day shift strippers on the boat, you know the ones with C section scars.

A least when you're going fast they don't smell like cigarettes

[locodos 5591]

4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Not to thread jack: But walk me through the why of a $300K boat. Espcially one that doesn't have any sun cover (or at least minimal minimal for a center consol (that's what they are called right?).  That's a lot of cheese, man.

Somebody got a tiny PP and/or watched too much Miami Vice

[Brisketexan 106910]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Because boats n hoes compensating for short dick.

FIF accuracy.

[bolverk 30334]

I read a piece a day or so ago about the anti-trans ads.

Given that they're playing them during football games, we all expect they're being targeted towards football dads. Unfortunately, they're surprisingly effective with suburban moms who are often motivated by a hyper-concern over safety issues.

So, now, those momma bears have to weigh their anger about abortion rights being stripped away against their precious babies being attacked by evil, child-molesting transpeople or, worse, being turned into one.

Even the spokesperson/head of the Human Rights Campaign (blue square bumper sticker with the yellow equals sign) whom they interviewed was concerned that they were having an effect.

Edited October 10 by bolverk

[TexEx15 17953]

 

[G650 14438]

24 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

I forgot to mention, he is the guy who is still driving the Cadillac pickup, unironically.

 

13 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Not to thread jack: But walk me through the why of a $300K boat. Espcially one that doesn't have any sun cover (or at least minimal minimal for a center consol (that's what they are called right?).  That's a lot of cheese, man.

 

8 minutes ago, locodos said:

Somebody got a tiny PP and/or watched too much Miami Vice

 

See above.

[Red Five 41742]

6 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Just completely trashing the largest city in a swing state, to their faces. It won't mean anything. 

[SydneyCarton 49506]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Just completely trashing the largest city in a swing state, to their faces. It won't mean anything. 

I mean, it probably won't to the people who would show up to watch him speak. 

[Baboontyme 2883]

Detroit vs Everybody

Well at least vs "those people"

[LCHorn 2751]

10 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Even the spokesperson/head of the Human Rights Campaign (blue square bumper sticker with the yellow equals sign) whom they interviewed was concerned that they were having an effect.

I have a friend that does heavy fundraising for the HRC, and to which I’ve contributed, but I’ve wondered if they’ve ever felt like conjoining the LGBQ rights with the T rights puts them on the wrong side of public opinion.  I realize that’s not their goal (it’s to shape public opinion), but it sounds like they are concerned about it, too.  

[Tuco 5094]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Trump's pollster (Fabrizio) internals have him up 1 in MI/WI/PA/NC.  That is uh, not really good, since internals are usually 3-4 points more favorable towards you than they should be.

Looking at 538, there doesn't appear to be any Dem pollsters on swing states.  It's almost like Dems don't want to push optimistic polling.  

[Bateshorn 9991]

21 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Because boats n hoes

 

19 minutes ago, locodos said:

Somebody got a tiny PP and/or watched too much Miami Vice

 

15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

FIF accuracy.

 

9 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

 

 

See above.

Lol.  I don't know shit about speed boats, other than Gong Li is smoke and likes going fast in them (I'll save the discussion of Miami Vice being a severly underrated masterpiece for after the election). 

 

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Well you see, there's poor black people in Detroit and no one wants that in their community.

Kamala would win a landslide if she just called Amazon type companies etc pieces of shit towards their workers.

Saying we are gonna dominate militarily gets 0% on net average voters. Probably loses votes.

[6th Street 6692]

Harris' momentum clearly stalled out. Time to roll out the big guns

Barack and Michelle Obama
Bruce Springsteen
Taylor Swift 

 

[Js1 87187]

1 minute ago, 6th Street said:

Harris' momentum clearly stalled out. Time to roll out the big guns

Barack and Michelle Obama
Bruce Springsteen
Taylor Swift 

 

Barack is on the trail starting today all the way through Election Day 

4 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Looking at 538, there doesn't appear to be any Dem pollsters on swing states.  It's almost like Dems don't want to push optimistic polling.  

Nope, GOP firms flood the zone and set the narrative. 2022 all over again 

[Zonahorn 8079]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Barack is on the trail starting today all the way through Election Day 

Nope, GOP firms flood the zone and set the narrative. 2022 all over again 

The MAGA tears are going to be delicious on election night.

[Conqueeftador 123]

Halperin hosts a daily show with Sean Spicer and a Dem Strategist. Pretty interesting, and civil. He says he speaks to sources on both sides and they're both saying it’s moving Trump. 

They also take direct questions/comments from people

Whole episode here from today. 

 

 

[Huckleberry 34668]

6 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Well you see, there's poor black people in Detroit and no one wants that in their community.

Kamala would win a landslide if she just called Amazon type companies etc pieces of shit towards their workers.

Saying we are gonna dominate militarily gets 0% on net average voters. Probably loses votes.

Yes, we all understand that you are super butthurt about her military comments. You should repeat it three more times to make yourself feel better, though. Good luck.

[SydneyCarton 49506]

8 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

 

 

 

Lol.  I don't know shit about speed boats, other than Gong Li is smoke and likes going fast in them (I'll save the discussion of Miami Vice being a severly underrated masterpiece for after the election). 

 

The song they play in that scene is also badass. 

[safe sex 12012]

12 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I have a friend that does heavy fundraising for the HRC, and to which I’ve contributed, but I’ve wondered if they’ve ever felt like conjoining the LGBQ rights with the T rights puts them on the wrong side of public opinion.  I realize that’s not their goal (it’s to shape public opinion), but it sounds like they are concerned about it, too.  

There are plenty of LGB people who are super transphobic. Plenty of them don't think the T should be included in the acronym. Though to be sure, excluding trans people from the "main" queer umbrella would do irreparable damage to the trans community