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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The election is 5 months away. Maybe step back from obsessing over polls and the news for a bit?

ACTUALLY Bloomberg recently reported her standing has rebounded substantially with voters, both personally and in her ability to do the job if she has to become POTUS. 

That's because the campaign has been deploying her only when it's safe...

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20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I really don't think it does.  Because Joseph R. Biden is getting nearly zero attention.  "Biden!" is getting all the attention -- "Biden!" being a mostly fictional character as covered by the media and as turned into a caricature by the propagandists who dominate half the media and most of social media.  If it wasn't "Biden!" it would be "Whitmer!" or "Newsom!" or whoever -- who would not be the actual person, but rather would be the straw man manufactured and then destroyed by the media and propagandists.

image.thumb.jpeg.0c7f872f69f1211834e697e1b633b0a1.jpeg

 

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1 hour ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Well of course, you don’t know that 

I don’t know. Whitmer? There’s nobody better right now than Biden? Yeah as he waltzes to a loss to trump. Pretty sad when the best we got…is struggling

Show me where trump gets to 270

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2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Show me where trump gets to 270

you have a lot of degrees and can't figure out how a guy that lost by decimal percents in multiple states can win?

 

Georgia 2,473,633 49.47% 16 2,461,854 49.24% 62,229 1.24% 1,013 0.02% 1,231 0.02% 11,779 0.24% 5.37% 4,999,960
Arizona 1,672,143 49.36% 11 1,661,686 49.06% 51,465 1.52% 1,557 0.05% 475 0.01% 10,457 0.31% 3.81% 3,387,326
Wis. 1,630,866 49.45% 10 1,610,184 48.82% 38,491 1.17% 1,089 0.03% 17,411 0.53% 20,682 0.63% 1.40% 3,298,041
Pa. 3,458,229 49.85% 20 3,377,674 48.69% 79,380 1.14% 1,282 0.02% 20,411 0.29% 80,555 1.16% 1.88% 6,936,976
Nev.[q] 703,486 50.06% 6 669,890 47.67% 14,783 1.05% 17,217 1.23% 33,596 2.39% −0.03% 1,405,376
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Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

you have a lot of degrees and can't figure out how a guy that lost by decimal percents in multiple states can win?

 

Georgia 2,473,633 49.47% 16 2,461,854 49.24% 62,229 1.24% 1,013 0.02% 1,231 0.02% 11,779 0.24% 5.37% 4,999,960
Arizona 1,672,143 49.36% 11 1,661,686 49.06% 51,465 1.52% 1,557 0.05% 475 0.01% 10,457 0.31% 3.81% 3,387,326
Wis. 1,630,866 49.45% 10 1,610,184 48.82% 38,491 1.17% 1,089 0.03% 17,411 0.53% 20,682 0.63% 1.40% 3,298,041
Pa. 3,458,229 49.85% 20 3,377,674 48.69% 79,380 1.14% 1,282 0.02% 20,411 0.29% 80,555 1.16% 1.88% 6,936,976
Nev.[q] 703,486 50.06% 6 669,890 47.67% 14,783 1.05% 17,217 1.23% 33,596 2.39% −0.03% 1,405,376

And Pennsylvania plus any two of those (except NV, too few -- but plug Michigan in there) wins it for him.  

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

you have a lot of degrees and can't figure out how a guy that lost by decimal percents in multiple states can win?

 

Georgia 2,473,633 49.47% 16 2,461,854 49.24% 62,229 1.24% 1,013 0.02% 1,231 0.02% 11,779 0.24% 5.37% 4,999,960
Arizona 1,672,143 49.36% 11 1,661,686 49.06% 51,465 1.52% 1,557 0.05% 475 0.01% 10,457 0.31% 3.81% 3,387,326
Wis. 1,630,866 49.45% 10 1,610,184 48.82% 38,491 1.17% 1,089 0.03% 17,411 0.53% 20,682 0.63% 1.40% 3,298,041
Pa. 3,458,229 49.85% 20 3,377,674 48.69% 79,380 1.14% 1,282 0.02% 20,411 0.29% 80,555 1.16% 1.88% 6,936,976
Nev.[q] 703,486 50.06% 6 669,890 47.67% 14,783 1.05% 17,217 1.23% 33,596 2.39% −0.03% 1,405,376

Fuck off with that shit. Everyone knows it’s possible. 
 

 

I want you to list the states he lost last time that you honestly believe he will win this time and why you think he will

 

 

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

And Pennsylvania plus any two of those (except NV, too few -- but plug Michigan in there) wins it for him.  

He isn’t winning Pennsylvania 

 

 

JFC he is not winning fucking Arizona you bunch of pussies. You really think they are going to have 2 democratic senators and fucking trump for president?

or you think there are going to be a bunch of Gallego / trump ballots? 

Edited by Sawbonz
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Just now, Sawbonz said:

Fuck off with that shit. Everyone knows it’s possible. 
 

 

I want you to list the states he lost last time that you honestly believe he will win this time and why you think he will

 

 

He isn’t winning Pennsylvania 

Unless he is.  The fucking lock-down confidence that Trump will lose just blows me away.  All previous modeling, sane thinking, political wisdom, etc., is completely obsolete.  We are through the looking glass.

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Unless he is.  The fucking lock-down confidence that Trump will lose just blows me away.  All previous modeling, sane thinking, political wisdom, etc., is completely obsolete.  We are through the looking glass.

I predicted Trump would win the primary and beat Hillary. This ain’t that

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3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Fuck off with that shit. Everyone knows it’s possible. 
 

 

I want you to list the states he lost last time that you honestly believe he will win this time and why you think he will

with margins that small, rain in the wrong location can change states.  beyond that, line in the sand posturing is dumb.

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Most of the polls that have Trump up in a three-way race are showing RFK getting anywhere from 5 to 10% of the general election votes. He might get 3. And no one has made a plausible argument for his pulling disproportionately from Biden

 

It’s certainly possible he can win. I just don’t see it

3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

with margins that small, rain in the wrong location can change states.  beyond that, line in the sand posturing is dumb.

So your argument is that inclement weather in certain states is going to give Trump the presidency?

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3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I predicted Trump would win the primary and beat Hillary. This ain’t that

So did I.  And I listened to most folks who had champagne on ice to watch the 2020 returns and toast Biden's victory that night....as I told them they were way overconfident.  We didn't get a resounding defeat of Trump.  We got a squeaker.  I think it's going to be even tighter this time, in the same key states.

The fate of the country is going to come down to shit like whether the Republicans who run Georgia actually let crucial polling places be open and shit like that.

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Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

yeah, that's definitely what i'm saying.

So what issues/demographic change/ or other tangible issues can you point to that indicate any of those close states Will flip to Trump?

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

So did I.  And I listened to most folks who had champagne on ice to watch the 2020 returns and toast Biden's victory that night....as I told them they were way overconfident.  We didn't get a resounding defeat of Trump.  We got a squeaker.  I think it's going to be even tighter this time, in the same key states.

The fate of the country is going to come down to shit like whether the Republicans who run Georgia actually let crucial polling places be open and shit like that.


It’s going to be tight. I’ll even concede it may be tighter than last go round. Trump needs so many things to break just right it’s not a rational position to predict his winning. Though of course he may. If he doesn’t though, this time there will be troops with automatic weapons and body armor in the capital when it’s time to certify Biden’s win. It isn’t going to the fucking states and it isn’t going to the Supreme Court. 

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5 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

So what issues/demographic change/ or other tangible issues can you point to that indicate any of those close states Will flip to Trump?

If Biden's voters' enthusiasm craters, as it looks to be over the genocide in Gaza, then any of those states could be in play.

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1 minute ago, softlynow said:

Even if you think Biden wins, you should be amplifying the Trump could/will win message.

The easiest way for Trump to win is a lack of a sense of urgency. Clinton made a bunch of mistakes in 2016. But Trump looking unelectable, IMHO, had to affect turnout and allow for some folks to feel OK about "sending a message" and voting for Stein or even Johnson. Over 4.5% of voters chose someone other than Trump or Clinton. In 2020 that dropped to about 1.8%. 2012 saw about the same percentage vote for neither Obama nor Romney.

Trump could win should be all you say to anyone you know who understands the stakes of this election or otherwise will not for for Trump. They need to be scared to stay home or vote for RFK or some other joke candidate.

 

I get that. There’s also the risk of demoralizing voters by making it look like a Trump victory is a foregone conclusion.

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1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:


It’s going to be tight. I’ll even concede it may be tighter than last go round. Trump needs so many things to break just right it’s not a rational position to predict his winning. Though of course he may. If he doesn’t though, this time there will be troops with automatic weapons and body armor in the capital when it’s time to certify Biden’s win. It isn’t going to the fucking states and it isn’t going to the Supreme Court. 

It doesn't have to go to the states.  Just a Republican governor or legislature or state Supreme Court putting their thumb on the scale in the right place.  And by the way, they won't just be motivated by "we want Trump to win."  They will be motivated by the Trump mob, egged on by Trump, who will come to kill them if they DON'T do Trump's bidding.  You may see Jan 6th, except bloodier, at the Georgia state house, for example.

And yeah, if it goes before SCOTUS in any way at all, game over.  That body is irreparably broken.  It will not recover in my lifetime.

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It doesn't have to go to the states.  Just a Republican governor or legislature or state Supreme Court putting their thumb on the scale in the right place.  And by the way, they won't just be motivated by "we want Trump to win."  They will be motivated by the Trump mob, egged on by Trump, who will come to kill them if they DON'T do Trump's bidding.  You may see Jan 6th, except bloodier, at the Georgia state house, for example.

And yeah, if it goes before SCOTUS in any way at all, game over.  That body is irreparably broken.  It will not recover in my lifetime.

If that happens Biden becomes dictator in chief and it will be what we deserve

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1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

I get that. There’s also the risk of demoralizing voters by making it look like a Trump victory is a foregone conclusion.

Tricky, for sure. You'll just have to tailor the message to the listener. We know the media won't, beyond pimping themselves out for clicks.

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1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

If that happens Biden becomes dictator in chief and it will be what we deserve

Bolded for emphasis.  I am very, very scared that this country is going to get EXACTLY what it deserves, and get it good and hard.  We seem dead-set on choosing mass self-immolation:

d946b05e-2fa8-4000-91ac-0001d0706b9c.jpg

 

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8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It doesn't have to go to the states.  Just a Republican governor or legislature or state Supreme Court putting their thumb on the scale in the right place.  And by the way, they won't just be motivated by "we want Trump to win."  They will be motivated by the Trump mob, egged on by Trump, who will come to kill them if they DON'T do Trump's bidding.  You may see Jan 6th, except bloodier, at the Georgia state house, for example.

And yeah, if it goes before SCOTUS in any way at all, game over.  That body is irreparably broken.  It will not recover in my lifetime.

The Republican governors in states Joe won are Joe Lombardo in Nevada, Kemp in Georgia, Chris Sununu in NH and Phil Scott in Vermont. Flip those from last time, and it's 274 Biden, 264 Trump, after reapportionment.

 

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1 minute ago, softlynow said:

The Republican governors in states Joe won are Joe Lombardo in Nevada, Kemp in Georgia, Chris Sununu in NH and Phil Scott in Vermont. Flip those from last time, and it's 274 Biden, 264 Trump, after reapportionment.

 

Yes.  Now factor in Repub legislatures and State Supreme Courts.  And again, if some of the states already flip due to votes....then we only need shenanigans in a state or two to toss the whole fucking thing into a mess.  Remember Bush v. Gore?  That was just about one state.

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2 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

It should have been a serious option. An octogenarian should have a had plan for his succession knowing full well he’ll be even older than fuck the next election. Our country and democracy is at stake, fuck yes I think that a one term presidency should have been at least planned for

Dude.  Not sure why you're freaking out today.  As others have said, if it weren't Biden, the Rs would be freaking out against someone else for different reasons.  The dotard is fucking like 3 years younger than Biden.  Quit blaming the Dems.  It's the fucking Rs and the dumbasses in this country.  Brisket has a shit sandwich analogy somewhere about this.

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yes.  Now factor in Repub legislatures and State Supreme Courts.  And again, if some of the states already flip due to votes....then we only need shenanigans in a state or two to toss the whole fucking thing into a mess.  Remember Bush v. Gore?  That was just about one state.

I do. The 24-hour news networks' ratings will be incredible. Just another reason to think it might happen. With AI, today's would be Hearst (Lachlan Murdoch's coming out party?) wouldn't even need a Frederick Remington.

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10 minutes ago, softlynow said:

The Republican governors in states Joe won are Joe Lombardo in Nevada, Kemp in Georgia, Chris Sununu in NH and Phil Scott in Vermont. Flip those from last time, and it's 274 Biden, 264 Trump, after reapportionment.

 

And? The governors do not have unilateral power to...what, just cancel the election in their state or declare the results null and void and that Trump won the state?

Some of y'all are in weird corners on the internet. 

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Frankly, I’ve moved on to the potential bloodbath Dem primary in ‘28.  Or the VP nomination when Biden dies in office and the House and Senate get to vote on Kamala’s nominee.
 

I can see her nominating someone loudly divisive like Hillary, because fuck everyone, that’s why.  

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Its not an analogy anymore.  We've managed to manifest a giant, actual shit sandwich.  Eat up, fellas.

No, it was like, Biden is a shit sandwich, but dotard is a broken glass and strychnine sandwich and half of the country is choosing broken glass and strychnine.  Or something.

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Posted (edited)

Overall, I'm just pissed at the people (like my wife) who are blaming Democrats for the rest of the country's piss poor decisions.  It's misplaced blame and it makes no damn sense.

Edited by Biff Tannen
and it's giving R voters WAY more credit than they have any right to deserve
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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

And? The governors do not have unilateral power to...what, just cancel the election in their state or declare the results null and void and that Trump won the state?

Some of y'all are in weird corners on the internet. 

"Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress;"

Before we entered the Darkest Timeline on November 2, 2016, 11:47 CDT (Cubs win WS), we had an accepted interpretation of the language above. But, as we now know, once a political party give fuckall about the accpted interpretation and how we put that into practice, there is more than enough wiggle room in that constitutional clause to convince anyone with a vested interest to just about anything they can conceivably do bring about the desired result.

Those governors and legislator are more than willing to Mitch McConnell this election. To deny that is to deny that we are in crisis.

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I can’t believe I’m typing this out, but if you want to craft doomsday scenarios where the Dotard wins, then the most likely scenario is as follows:

1. Georgia and Wisconsin are truly toss-up states. Trump only needs approximately 30,000 additional votes to flip these 2 states. This gets him to 262 electoral votes assuming Nebraska goes to winner take all.

2. Enough Arab Americans stay home to protest what’s taking place in Gaza and he wins Michigan’s 15 EVs. This is the stretch goal because he needs to overcome Biden’s 150,000 margin from 2020.

Arizona and Pennsylvania look like D victories to me. Both have recently elected D governors. You can make a similar argument for Wisconsin as well.

Our system sucks for allowing this kind of fuckery because he will lose the popular vote by millions again.

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12 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

No, it was like, Biden is a shit sandwich, but dotard is a broken glass and strychnine sandwich and half of the country is choosing broken glass and strychnine.  Or something.

Ahh, you're going with the David Sedaris analysis:

ElQ8FKqWMAAFFjz.jpg

As a country, we seem hell-bent on following a path that serves up a platter of shit with broken glass in it.  It's the dumbest fucking thing I have ever seen, but here we are.

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If Biden's voters' enthusiasm craters, as it looks to be over the genocide in Gaza, then any of those states could be in play.

I understand the media that you consume is making it appear this way, but Gaza is not close to a top priority among voters. It might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, but it is not responsible for any cratering of enthusiasm.
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12 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

I can’t believe I’m typing this out, but if you want to craft doomsday scenarios where the Dotard wins, then the most likely scenario is as follows:

1. Georgia and Wisconsin are truly toss-up states. Trump only needs approximately 30,000 additional votes to flip these 2 states. This gets him to 262 electoral votes assuming Nebraska goes to winner take all.

2. Enough Arab Americans stay home to protest what’s taking place in Gaza and he wins Michigan’s 15 EVs. This is the stretch goal because he needs to overcome Biden’s 150,000 margin from 2020.

Arizona and Pennsylvania look like D victories to me. Both have recently elected D governors. You can make a similar argument for Wisconsin as well.

Our system sucks for allowing this kind of fuckery because he will lose the popular vote by millions again.

This is a pretty good analysis.  Again, I go back to the Dowd-Axelrod model using University of Chicago statisticians (kind of a smart group of people).  There is no "Bring out the Youth" vote, "Women Voters for Blue" or any insert group of color voter bloc.  He has 25mm locked down as passionate MAGA.  He has 25mm as straight ticket voters, nothing new there---has always been that way.  Don't burn resources trying to get our more youths, women, Arabs, whatever the fuck.  You have to spend your time and money keeping a few million of his middle bracket from not bothering to vote out of shame.  Then it's game over.  But you spend all that time and money on "What if the white youth or Arab men or Catholic moderates went the way of Joe Biden" and you're fucking toast.  Humiliate the middle 25mm.  Most will vote for Trump to spite us, but do it correctly and enough will sit it out and tilt the election.  Nobody is winning this thing over Gaza or Inflation.  There are no winners, only degrees of losing.  

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Just now, YGIFS said:

There are no winners, only degrees of losing.  

Ultimately, as a Republic, electorate, and people, this where we are.  And where I am convinced we will be for the next 20+ years.

The Gretchen Whitmer v. Donald Trump Jr. race in 2036 is gonna be lit.  And it's a toss-up.

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6 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

Maybe one of you can stop hyperventilating and explain why this thread blew up like 7 hours ago. Some of us have day jobs away from our desk.

Democrats are getting nervous because the race is basically tied in *checks notes* May.

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4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Democrats are getting nervous because the race is basically tied in *checks notes* May.

150k Arab Americans in Michigan are going to stay home, Brian Kemp is going to find the votes for trump he wouldn’t in 2020, and a once in a millennium rainstorm in Arizona is going to keep the dem voters at home on Election Day and walla Trump 47

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Cool, you guys have calmed me down.  But I'm counting on you to let me know when to start stockpiling weapons and ammo for the insurgency in 2025 and beyond, okay?  

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5 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Cool, you guys have calmed me down.  But I'm counting on you to let me know when to start stockpiling weapons and ammo for the insurgency in 2025 and beyond, okay?  

Now - Beat the rush!

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25 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Cool, you guys have calmed me down.  But I'm counting on you to let me know when to start stockpiling weapons and ammo for the insurgency in 2025 and beyond, okay?  

Start?   You're way behind, friend-o.

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Cool, you guys have calmed me down.  But I'm counting on you to let me know when to start stockpiling weapons and ammo for the insurgency in 2025 and beyond, okay?  

The best time to do so was yesterday. The second best time is today.

And make sure to put a coupla “coexist” bumper stickers on your ride. That way, the dumbass insurrectionist MAGAs will think you’re not a threat, will lower their weapons, and will be completely surprised when you drop 80 grains or better though their empty heads.
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7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


The best time to do so was yesterday. The second best time is today.

And make sure to put a coupla “coexist” bumper stickers on your ride. That way, the dumbass insurrectionist MAGAs will think you’re not a threat, will lower their weapons, and will be completely surprised when you drop 80 grains or better though their empty heads.

I only own two guns, an short barrel AR and a Walther PDP but have 9 mags in total (six 30 round AR mags and three 18 round Walthers mags.   I'm not even sure off the top of my head how much ammo I have but it's somewhere north of 1,000 total between 9mm and  .223/5.56.  2 months ago, I hadn't owned a gun in over a decade.   I might just buy another 2-3 between now and November.  

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6 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s just once per day. I guess he has rallies some evenings as well, so consider me admonished and corrected. 

I don’t have it handy, but somebody has been mapping out his rallies, and basically the locations come down to either he thinks he will rake enough donations to make it worth his while (although most of those are dinners and not rallies) or they are in locations close to properties he owns (and can therefore siphon campaign money into his coffers) such as the Pennsylvania rally, Bronx, etc. - basically an hour or two flight away.  He’s not flying up to Michigan and hopping in a bus for a bunch of stops, but he would fly in for a rally or dinner if he can pull in a shitload of money.  Basically it’s all about the grift.

2 hours ago, hornmpa96 said:

Enough Arab Americans stay home to protest what’s taking place in Gaza and he wins Michigan’s 15 EVs. This is the stretch goal because he needs to overcome Biden’s 150,000 margin from 2020.

If they stay home and somehow help him win, they better not bitch when they get rounded up by his administration.

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

If they stay home and somehow help him win, they better not bitch when they get rounded up by his administration.

Agreed - I’m hoping the Biden campaign specifically reminds Michigan voters of Trump’s views of Israel/Palestine. 

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