2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[wood 11770]

14 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

Well he did say the Taliban was a "medium" threat in Afghanistan after we pulled out in 2021 and said it would take at least 2 years for them to take over.  It took 10 days.

He said Kyiv would likely fall in 72 hours if Russia invaded.  Its been over 2.5 years.   

OK, cool. He may lack in competence, at least in those estimates, but he doesn't appear to suffer from a shortage of character.

[aggie08 21846]

19 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

Well he did say the Taliban was a "medium" threat in Afghanistan after we pulled out in 2021 and said it would take at least 2 years for them to take over.  It took 10 days.

He said Kyiv would likely fall in 72 hours if Russia invaded.  Its been over 2.5 years.   

If I'm not mistaken, that was his prediction if Ukraine was left to fend for itself with zero foreign aid. Which was a lot of smart people's conclusions. I think most everyone (thankfully) severely underestimate Ukraine's fighting spirit and ability to thwart what was viewed as a formidable invader.

[Brisketexan 107006]

16 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

never mind the fact that they shouldn't have to do it in the first place.

Cool.

I'm just going to take you from your current home, shove you on a train to central Mexico, and sorry about the inconvenience.  Also....I'm on a fucking train in the middle of mexico, so I don't exactly have my paperwork with me.  Carrying around stuff to satisfy my burden of proof that I'm a citizen isn't something THAT FUCKING AMERICANS FUCKING DO.

[4th&Five 42024]

26 minutes ago, Pancho said:

The 1 thing I know is I will be at the Marriott bar in Burbank acting like a fool on election night if Harris wins. 
 

Who starts a conference on election day? Idiots, that’s who. 

I was at a conference in Tempe on election night in 2016. It was enlightening to say the least…

[NAVY 6971]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Cool.

I'm just going to take you from your current home, shove you on a train to central Mexico, and sorry about the inconvenience.  Also....I'm on a fucking train in the middle of mexico, so I don't exactly have my paperwork with me.  Carrying around stuff to satisfy my burden of proof that I'm a citizen isn't something THAT FUCKING AMERICANS FUCKING DO.

Now they’re taking our jerbs and trains!? 
Just great 

[Pato del Muerto 53581]

13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Cool.

I'm just going to take you from your current home, shove you on a train to central Mexico, and sorry about the inconvenience.  Also....I'm on a fucking train in the middle of mexico, so I don't exactly have my paperwork with me.  Carrying around stuff to satisfy my burden of proof that I'm a citizen isn't something THAT FUCKING AMERICANS FUCKING DO.

Yet

[David Dennison 19568]

15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Cool.

I'm just going to take you from your current home, shove you on a train to central Mexico, and sorry about the inconvenience.  Also....I'm on a fucking train in the middle of mexico, so I don't exactly have my paperwork with me.  Carrying around stuff to satisfy my burden of proof that I'm a citizen isn't something THAT FUCKING AMERICANS FUCKING DO.

It's weird you don't hear more about this from Democrats.

 

[gernblansten 3267]

[softlynow 1894]

Just now, gernblansten said:

Pregnant women call them the good ole days.

[David Dennison 19568]

31 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

What the fuck are you talking about?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_Americans_from_the_United_States

[Js1 87279]

 

 

2022 behavior (more in-person voting) with 2020 turnout is great. Means more definitive results on November 5 and not waiting all week.

For those convinced this will drag out like 2020, which it probably won't be waiting around for mail-in ballots to be counted.

[sheeeit 129]

19 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

If I'm not mistaken, that was his prediction if Ukraine was left to fend for itself with zero foreign aid. Which was a lot of smart people's conclusions. I think most everyone (thankfully) severely underestimate Ukraine's fighting spirit and ability to thwart what was viewed as a formidable invader.

Well he made the prediction to congress on February 5 and Russian invaded on February 24.  Obviously no material foreign aid was forthcoming in that 19 day window.  

He is gone now so it doesn't really matter but no person in the world had access to as much intelligence regarding both situations as he did and he was just spectacularly wrong.  he should have been fired or, at a minimum, demoted to a lesser position.

[locodos 5593]

29 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Cool.

I'm just going to take you from your current home, shove you on a train to central Mexico, and sorry about the inconvenience.  Also....I'm on a fucking train in the middle of mexico, so I don't exactly have my paperwork with me.  Carrying around stuff to satisfy my burden of proof that I'm a citizen isn't something THAT FUCKING AMERICANS FUCKING DO.

I hear you, but I seem to recall after 9/11 patriot or patriot 2 set up a 100 mile zone that allowed law enforcement to check your legal status etc... AKA vast majority of US population

https://www.aclu.org/know-your-rights/border-zone

Are immigration officials allowed to stop people in places wholly inside the U.S.?

U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the federal agency tasked with patrolling the U.S. border and areas that function like a border, claims a territorial reach much larger than you might imagine. A federal law says that, without a warrant, CBP can board vehicles and vessels and search for people without immigration documentation “within a reasonable distance from any external boundary of the United States.” These “external boundaries” include international land borders but also the entire U.S. coastline.

Edited October 14 by locodos
poor word choice

[Mdhorn 6166]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

The big question is was he given carte blanche to come up with his own questions or is he just going to parrot right-wing Trumplican talking points back at her the whole time? 

Any other "journalist" would have demanded full independence to ask their own questions, but it's Fox News, so I'm sure it'll be:

Why do you hate America?
Why do you think all Trump supporters are racists?
Why do you want to forcibly transition school children and soldiers?
Did I ask why you hate America so much?

Again, it gives Fox some kind of credibility and they have none, as proven in a court of law.  Kamala shouldn't give them the opportunity.  But here we are again, running out the clock.

[SydneyCarton 49532]

1 hour ago, Slacks said:

Uhhhh... A handful of angry Muslims is not what gets trump put in office. 

 

Except it might, thanks to the electoral college. 

[atomheartbevo 90670]

 

[atomheartbevo 90670]

21 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

Well he made the prediction to congress on February 5 and Russian invaded on February 24.  Obviously no material foreign aid was forthcoming in that 19 day window.  

He is gone now so it doesn't really matter but no person in the world had access to as much intelligence regarding both situations as he did and he was just spectacularly wrong.  he should have been fired or, at a minimum, demoted to a lesser position.

Nobody thought the Russians would be as incompetent as they were or that they had lost so much institutional knowledge over the past decade or two..

there were many who failed to predict even the invasion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T2MYXljL5o

 

[Woland 755]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

Where is the money going? Hint: It's going to him. The Harris campaign could probably be doing a better job of labeling Dotard as a grifting conman. 

There's only 24 hours in a day and lots a labeling to do.

[wildcat09 29600]

51 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

If I'm not mistaken, that was his prediction if Ukraine was left to fend for itself with zero foreign aid. Which was a lot of smart people's conclusions. I think most everyone (thankfully) severely underestimate Ukraine's fighting spirit and ability to thwart what was viewed as a formidable invader.

If they hadn't fought the Russians off at the airfield near Kyiv and the Russian military hadn't pawned all its good tires for vodka it probably would've ended about that quickly.  

31 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_Americans_from_the_United_States

Man, I was very clearly asking what the fuck you were talking about thinking it's easy to prove citizenship.  

[Pancho 46369]

 

[Js1 87279]

Oh now Tapper grows a spine?

[BamaATL 16593]

Early voting in Georgia starts tomorrow, I will provide livish local updates based on my experience.  Also driving people to polls upon the request, so hopeful to get a lot of requests.  Though I live in a Republican area, I'm hopeful to see lots of diversity and lots of women tomorrow at the polls.  

[wildcat09 29600]

Did Tapper end the interview right after that clip so Youngkin couldn't keep lying to his audience? 

[mdmost 44110]

Trump wanted to use the military on BLM protestors and Milley told him no. That's not going to happen in Trump 2.0 with sycophants doing whatever he wants. The only people that might stand in the way is the members of the military refusing orders but we all know that's not supposed to happen and even if it does there will be plenty who do follow orders. 

Edited October 14 by mdmost

[Tuco 5094]

Well he made the prediction to congress on February 5 and Russian invaded on February 24.  Obviously no material foreign aid was forthcoming in that 19 day window.  
He is gone now so it doesn't really matter but no person in the world had access to as much intelligence regarding both situations as he did and he was just spectacularly wrong.  he should have been fired or, at a minimum, demoted to a lesser position.

Do you want a transcript of his statement? Cuz all I’m finding is FoxNews sources. And context of a sentence like that would be pretty important.

[David Dennison 19568]

14 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Man, I was very clearly asking what the fuck you were talking about thinking it's easy to prove citizenship.  

I don't know how easy it is, but . . . 

https://www.alllaw.com/articles/nolo/us-immigration/how-get-certificate-naturalization.html

[sheeeit 129]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Nobody thought the Russians would be as incompetent as they were or that they had lost so much institutional knowledge over the past decade or two..

there were many who failed to predict even the invasion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T2MYXljL5o

 

The point is that Milley had access to every bit of military intelligence, cia intelligence, international intelligence etc.  I mean one of the main tenets of his job is to know this stuff.  There are likely hundreds of military people at the Pentagon and across the globe whose  job was to know what the state of the Russian military was as well as the Ukrainian military.  It is massive incompetence.  I get university officials making bad predictions or even politicians making bad predictions, but the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has to do better.  One mistake should have had him demoted but 2 spectacular failures is ridiculous.

[C-Man 27819]

Oh, tariffs were just a figure of speech.

https://www.the-express.com/news/politics/151566/donald-trump-tariffs-figure-of-speech

Quote

Stumbling Trump says tariffs are 'figure of speech' after Fox News host slams his policy

The former president made a bizarre claim to the right-wing media outlet about his policy proposal shortly ahead of the election.

By Falyn Stempler

 

Donald Trump made bizarre claims after being pressed by Fox News about his economic policy proposals.

The former president said his plan to impose tariffs on foreign goods will spur economic growth and combat inflation – which is overall up 19.9% under the Biden administration – without imposing tariffs on citizens after being pressed by Fox News' Maria Bartiromo.

However, several economists, including The Committee for a Responsible Budget, have said his plans would increase the debt by $7.4 trillion, which they say is more than Kamala Harris' plan would.

"If I do this, you're gonna have car companies coming back to the country," he told Fox News.

Trump also claimed citizens would not absorb the costs if he imposed foreign tariffs despite pushback from economists.

 

Trump has suggested at several rallies and public appearances that he would impose a 200% tariff on imported goods.

Economists say this would result in jacking up prices for consumers, however Trump refuted the economic theory.

"No it's not - no no," he said. "It's gotta be passed on somehow."

He also suggested his remarks are theoretical, harkening back to his remarks during the September debate with Harris on CNN that he has "concepts of a plan."

"I'm using 200 percent tariffs just as a figure of speech," he added. "Well I'll say 100, 200, I'll say 500. I don't care."

His top campaign promise is to enforce the "largest deportation in US history," which he has raved about many rallies.

Trump has also vowed to tap 10,000 new border agents and incentivize them with $10,000 bonuses.

 

[Pancho 46369]

 

[The Dog 44865]

Streisand Effect?

 

[Gatorubet 30783]

11 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

The point is that Milley had access to every bit of military intelligence, cia intelligence, international intelligence etc.  I mean one of the main tenets of his job is to know this stuff.  There are likely hundreds of military people at the Pentagon and across the globe whose  job was to know what the state of the Russian military was as well as the Ukrainian military.  It is massive incompetence.  I get university officials making bad predictions or even politicians making bad predictions, but the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has to do better.  One mistake should have had him demoted but 2 spectacular failures is ridiculous.

Not to be rude, but where do you sit on the org chart at your work, and is it a large organization? 

The people at the top of the food chain are often the most vulnerable, because by the very nature of the pyramid, they are farthest away from the fact gathering and thus have the least ability to determine whether the information is true or not. To that end, they must rely on the information they receive from people who supposedly know what they were talking about.   i’ll give you that the person on top needs to have it ability to tell whether or not they are being bullshitted -  and to have their own people that they trust act to vet info.  that said, military people are really good at military stuff, but often seem to suck at the political and cultural ramifications of their military actions.

 If the intelligence community fed him the information that led to his ultimate conclusion and opinion, that is not on him. It is indeed on those under him who gave him that information. And if the buck stops with him, well, that’s as it should be. But it is no way says he is incompetent. It certainly indicates that other people may be. 

i’m limiting this to Afghanistan. your blaming him for the outcome of the Ukraine invasion is ridiculous.

[sheeeit 129]

22 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Do you want a transcript of his statement? Cuz all I’m finding is FoxNews sources. And context of a sentence like that would be pretty important.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/politics/kyiv-russia-ukraine-us-intelligence/index.html

[Chuckie Finster 23095]

Again, it gives Fox some kind of credibility and they have none, as proven in a court of law.  Kamala shouldn't give them the opportunity.  But here we are again, running out the clock.

Pretending that the most watched news network in the country doesn’t exist is a Hillary-esque, loser move.

The goal isn’t to switch votes, it’s to convince voters that you winning isn’t the end of the world. If you let your opposition define you without pushback, then you cannot be surprised when the general public believes it.

[David Dennison 19568]

32 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Did Tapper end the interview right after that clip so Youngkin couldn't keep lying to his audience? 

Would that make for good television?

[atomheartbevo 90670]

25 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

The point is that Milley had access to every bit of military intelligence, cia intelligence, international intelligence etc.  I mean one of the main tenets of his job is to know this stuff.  There are likely hundreds of military people at the Pentagon and across the globe whose  job was to know what the state of the Russian military was as well as the Ukrainian military.  It is massive incompetence.  I get university officials making bad predictions or even politicians making bad predictions, but the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has to do better.  One mistake should have had him demoted but 2 spectacular failures is ridiculous.

As @wildcat09 mentioned, if Hostomel falls, Kyiv likely falls within 72 hours.  In other words, if the Russians had more competence and luck on their side, things unravel fast.

You can visit us in the DT thread and I can dig up the videos discussing how dicey things got with the attack on the Hostomel airfield.  A lot point to the convoy stalling just north of Kyiv, but Hostomel was more important.

[Js1 87279]

11 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Pretending that the most watched news network in the country doesn’t exist is a Hillary-esque, loser move.

The goal isn’t to switch votes, it’s to convince voters that you winning isn’t the end of the world. If you let your opposition define you without pushback, then you cannot be surprised when the general public believes it.

Also does not hurt to develop some type of relationship with them because when she wins, they will be at press briefings.

Plus I hope Pete gave her all the tips and tricks for how to handle this 

Edited October 14 by Js1

[wood 11770]

oh. my. fucking. god.

 

[Mdhorn 6166]

14 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Pretending that the most watched news network in the country doesn’t exist is a Hillary-esque, loser move.

The goal isn’t to switch votes, it’s to convince voters that you winning isn’t the end of the world. If you let your opposition define you without pushback, then you cannot be surprised when the general public believes it.

If the general public chooses to watch Fox for their "news", then they're willfully signing up to be brainwashed. 

[SizzleChest 8314]

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

Doesn’t count because it’s Bret Baeir! she should go on RT for it to count 

Bret Baier is going to need SS protection after that thing airs.

[SizzleChest 8314]

32 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Streisand Effect?

 

No one is going to a theatre to watch a Donald Trump movie.  People are Trump fatigued and paying $12 and spending 2 hours to watch a movie about Roy Cohn and Trump is a non-starter.

[bolverk 30366]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/13/opinion/polls-harris-trump.html

Quote

 

Here’s a bit of advice to help maintain your sanity over the next few weeks until Election Day: Just ignore the polls. Unless you’re a campaign professional or a gambler, you’re probably looking at them for the same reason the rest of us are: to know who’ll win. Or at least to feel like you know who’ll win. But they just can’t tell you that.

Back in 2016, Harry Enten, then at FiveThirtyEight, calculated the final polling error in every presidential election between 1968 and 2012. On average, the polls missed by two percentage points. In 2016, an American Association for Public Opinion Research postmortem found that the average error of the national polls was 2.2 points, but the polls of individual states were off by 5.1 points. In 2020, the national polls were off by 4.5 points and the state-level polls missed, again, by 5.1 points.

You could imagine a world in which these errors are random and cancel one another out. Perhaps Donald Trump’s support is undercounted by three points in Michigan but overcounted by three points in Wisconsin. But errors often systematically favor one candidate or the other. In both 2016 and 2020, for instance, state-level polls tended to undercount Trump supporters. The polls overestimated Hillary Clinton’s margin by three points in 2016 and Joe Biden’s margin by 4.3 points in 2020.

In a blowout election, an error of a few points in one direction or another is meaningless. In the California Senate race, for example, Adam Schiff, a Democrat, is leading Steve Garvey, a Republican, by between 17 and 33 points, depending on the poll. Even a polling error of 10 points wouldn’t matter to the outcome of the race.

But that’s not where the presidential election sits. As of Oct. 10, The New York Times’s polling average had Kamala Harris leading Trump by three points nationally. That’s tight, but the seven swing states are tighter: Neither candidate is leading by more than two points in any of them.

Imagine the polls perform better in 2024 than they did in either 2016 or 2020: They’re off, remarkably, by merely two points in the swing states. Huzzah! That would be consistent with Harris winning every swing state. It would also be consistent with Trump winning every swing state. This is not some outlandish scenario. According to Nate Silver’s election model, the most likely electoral outcome “is Harris sweeping all seven swing states. And the next most likely is Trump sweeping all seven.”

Which is all to say: The polls can’t tell you the way in which they’re going to be wrong, nor by how much. But that’s what matters now.

A race this tight is delightful for people who enjoy thinking about polling methodologies. My colleague Nate Cohn had a fascinating write-up last week of how polls are diverging based on whether pollsters are “weighting on recalled vote” or not. The short version is this: Pollsters are desperate to avoid the mistakes they made in 2016 and 2020, when they undercounted Trump supporters. So most pollsters are asking voters to recall who they voted for in 2020 and then using that information to make sure Trump voters are fully represented. Pollsters who do that are getting results that show a very 2020-like pattern in voting. Pollsters who don’t do that are seeing substantially different results.

But people are notoriously bad at recalling past votes. Using that data may just bias polls further. In a month or so, we’ll (hopefully) know which methodological choice was right. But until then, if you’re not a professional pollster, do you really need to be spending the fleeting minutes you have on this earth thinking about weighting on recalled votes? Call people you care about and tell them you love them. Take 10 deep breaths and watch where your mind wanders. Do literally anything else.

Here’s the other reason you can safely tune out the daily polling news: The polls are remarkably, eerily stable.

A week before the Harris-Trump debate in September, Harris led Trump by three points. Then came the debate, during which Trump turned in the second-worst debate performance in recent memory. Then came another attempted assassination of Trump, after the shooting at a campaign rally in July. Then the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Then Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon. Then came the vice-presidential debate. Then came a surprisingly strong jobs report. In this period, Harris released an 82-page booklet of policy proposals and Jack Smith, the special counsel prosecuting Trump in the Jan. 6 case, filed a 165-page brief adding new details of Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. After all that, Harris is now leading Trump by … three points.

There are voters who are still undecided, but they are, almost by definition, voters who pay less attention to political news and are either so uninterested in politics or so cynical about both candidates that nothing has yet caused them to make up their minds. There are many more voters whose minds are made up but may or may not actually fill out ballots by Election Day. These are the voters who will decide the election, and they’re not tipping their hands yet.

I suspect, if you’re reading this column, you’re not one of those voters. So give yourself a break. Step off the emotional roller coaster. If you want to do something to affect the election, donate money or time in a swing state — ideally to a state party or down-ballot race, where your efforts will go further — or volunteer in a local race. Call anyone in your life who might actually be undecided or might not be registered to vote or might not make it to the polls. And then let go. There’s nothing more you can do, and nothing more the polls can do for you.

 

 

[Chuckie Finster 23095]

If the general public chooses to watch Fox for their "news", then they're willfully signing up to be brainwashed. 

The more Democrats ignore the channel, the further from reality those folks can position themselves.

It benefits no one to allow that channel to craft its own reality without pushback.

[Js1 87279]

Lol Gallup needs to stop doing polling. A month ago, everyone was flipping out because they had the national party ID at R+3 and that meant Dems were going to lose badly  

This month? D+4 

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

The more Democrats ignore the channel, the further from reality those folks can position themselves.

It benefits no one to allow that channel to craft its own reality without pushback.

There’s a reason they send Pete on it and Walz has been on it 2 Sundays in a row 

[TwiceHorn 32102]

1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

If they hadn't fought the Russians off at the airfield near Kyiv and the Russian military hadn't pawned all its good tires for vodka it probably would've ended about that quickly.  

Man, I was very clearly asking what the fuck you were talking about thinking it's easy to prove citizenship.  

Try renewing your DL these days, as a native born white man.

[jimmyjazz 47291]

44 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Not to be rude, but where do you sit on the org chart at your work, and is it a large organization? 

The people at the top of the food chain are often the most vulnerable, because by the very nature of the pyramid, they are farthest away from the fact gathering and thus have the least ability to determine whether the information is true or not. To that end, they must rely on the information they receive from people who supposedly know what they were talking about.   i’ll give you that the person on top needs to have it ability to tell whether or not they are being bullshitted -  and to have their own people that they trust act to vet info.  that said, military people are really good at military stuff, but often seem to suck at the political and cultural ramifications of their military actions.

 If the intelligence community fed him the information that led to his ultimate conclusion and opinion, that is not on him. It is indeed on those under him who gave him that information. And if the buck stops with him, well, that’s as it should be. But it is no way says he is incompetent. It certainly indicates that other people may be. 

i’m limiting this to Afghanistan. your blaming him for the outcome of the Ukraine invasion is ridiculous.

It's sheeeit.

[tx 3 putt 78736]

1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

If they hadn't fought the Russians off at the airfield near Kyiv and the Russian military hadn't pawned all its good tires for vodka it probably would've ended about that quickly.  

 

those ukraine troops at the airport that evening saved the country. epic fail by russia. 

 

https://warontherocks.com/2023/08/the-battle-of-hostomel-airport-a-key-moment-in-russias-defeat-in-kyiv/

[LCHorn 2751]

44 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

i’m limiting this to Afghanistan. your blaming him for the outcome of the Ukraine invasion is ridiculous.

While I agree with everything you wrote, I do admit to reading about generals of antiquity committing ritual suicide for losing battles and appreciating the integrity of the act.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19473]

35 minutes ago, wood said:

oh. my. fucking. god.

 

Wait, are you just now finding out about the charity scam?

[WhatTheBuck 28939]

29 minutes ago, wood said:

oh. my. fucking. god.

 

I knew about that but I didn’t have that article bookmarked yet. I wonder which sub-folder under ‘Bookmarks\Politics\Donald Trump’ I should put it in: ‘Fraud,’ ‘Grift,’ or ‘Human Scum.’

I went with Human Scum. 

[wood 11770]

15 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Try renewing your DL these days, as a native born white man.

LOL, yep. The amount of shit I have to bring with me for that is insane, and I've been licensed to drive in this state for 45 years.