2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[BamaATL 16593]

7 hours ago, Redneck Mutha said:

Keep your pants on.

Overnight takeaways from Georgia Data Drop:

1.  1.378 Million have now cast votes

2.  Women outpace men by 145k.  A percentage of 55 to 45

3.  Non 2020 voters represent 209k.  The 65 plus crowd stays stagnant at 48k, whereas the 18 to 29 is at 63k  (this a a 14k shift younger from yesterday).  

4.  Fortress Atlanta - Dekalb County 93k have now voted, representing 16% of the 2020 output, Fulton County - 156k have votes, representing 17% of the 2020 output.

Deeper dive on counties:

1.  Clayton County (South Metro Atlanta) - 31k of votes, 15% of 2020 totals.  This is the county that in all likelihood saved democracy and won Georgia in 2020.  For those interested, Clayton has for years been economically depressed and downtrodden (the wealth in Atlanta is historically to the north, lots of reasons, and that is changing some).  At any rate, prior to Stacy Abrams, there was virtually no political engagement from this area.  in 2020, over 90k of Democratic votes were cast.  Quite obviously a major turning point and success story.  Political engagement seems on the margin with metro Atlanta, this is outstanding news. 

2.  Cobb County - 100k votes cast, 17% of 2020 output.  Virtually the exact opposite of Clayton County, on the Northwest side of Atlanta, and a long Republican stronghold that went blue in 2020 and 2022.  I expect the margin to slightly increase for Democrats here.  It won't be much, but this was critical.  Changing demographics and urbanization of the area is behind this.

3.  Gwinnett County - 96k votes cast 15k of 2020 output.  Northeast Atlanta county that started going blue about 12 years ago and has continued to trend this way.  

 

I expect all of the above counties to surpass their output from 2020.  Each has seen tremendous growth in the past 4 years.  

[TexasEd 8268]

On 10/19/2024 at 2:19 AM, tx 3 putt said:

 

michigan muslims have to be high on stephen millers to do list of naturalized citizens 

His Goebbels list 

20 hours ago, chainsaw said:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/19/trump-campaign-leaked-data-voters-elon-musk

 

20 hours ago, chainsaw said:

I have another hypothesis about Trump door knocking (the GOTV kind, not the post-inauguration Gestapo kind).

Accepting the premise that Likely Trump voters are more paranoid and more racist than the typical American, and the premise that an outsourced team is more likely to consist of young people of color, common sense tells me that these interactions might not go as well as Musk would hope, which would lead to high turnover and low morale. So these guys finding ways to juice their stats is not at all surprising.

Carry on, Musk.

I'm betting there is institutional fraud here.  You have to launder that campaign cash somehow.

[hookem2010 2700]

Sign report from 78665 in WilCo. 4 new Trump signs sprang up seemingly overnight. Current count is 6 to 3 for Harris, and 1 RFK true believer holdout.

I've only been here for about 20 months, but my precinct went fairly easily to Biden in 2020. Overall, not a ton of sign activity in my particular neighborhood.

[Pancho 46370]

 

[Walser 1126]

I'm Kamala all the way, but I really wish we didn't mix politics with religion...

[ConferenceRoom 6214]

I doubt she’s going to be stumping at church. Anyway, that ship sailed a while ago. 

[dieucla98 2963]

5 minutes ago, Walser said:

I'm Kamala all the way, but I really wish we didn't mix politics with religion...

Religion is far too important to a huge portion of this country that you can't avoid them mixing. You cannot win without playing up the God card and motivating the religious group. 

[Bateshorn 9991]

10 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

Religion is far too important to a huge portion of this country that you can't avoid them mixing. You cannot win without playing up the God card and motivating the religious group. 

As my wife notes: anti-atheism is one of the last remaining forms of acceptable discrimination. 

[Gatorubet 30783]

23 minutes ago, Walser said:

I'm Kamala all the way, but I really wish we didn't mix politics with religion...

 

[Walser 1126]

Two things I keep coming back to

1) Render unto Caesar what is Caesar's, and unto God what is God's.

2) There is no compulsion in religion.

I should not be getting so worked up on a Sunday morning. 

I have a feeling when Jesus comes back he is not going to be as forgiving to the Christofascists as he was to the money changers in the Temple.

Edited October 20 by Walser

[Pancho 46370]

 

[BamaATL 16593]

37 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

Religion is far too important to a huge portion of this country that you can't avoid them mixing. You cannot win without playing up the God card and motivating the religious group. 

The other thing to understand about this is just how much the church, here in Atlanta, is entwined with African American political activism.  This predates the civil rights movement, and in turn the civil rights movement has it's origin in black church here in Atlanta.  Hell, I'd be more concerned if Kamala weren't courting these voters and community leaders.  I'm a hardened atheist, but I get this.  

[aggie08 21848]

45 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

Religion is far too important to a huge portion of this country that you can't avoid them mixing. You cannot win without playing up the God card and motivating the religious group. 

Unless you're a Republican. Then, you can do the absolute bare minimum, but the church will do the heavy lifting for you to make you seem godly and Bible-versed to the religious types. Turns out they have quite the knack for make believe.

[Bateshorn 9991]

8 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

The other thing to understand about this is just how much the church, here in Atlanta, is entwined with African American political activism.  This predates the civil rights movement, and in turn the civil rights movement has its origin in black church here in Atlanta.  Hell, I'd be more concerned if Kamala weren't courting these voters and community leaders.  I'm a hardened atheist, but I get this.  

Today’s ATL Souls to the Polls is probably the single most important vote event other than Election Day in Georgia. 

[Js1 87281]

35 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I don’t love him dooming over one day of in person voting. But he does this often so I’m used to it 

[mdmost 44110]

Trump or Tramp? From a guy with 7 kids from 6 different women? But please remind me how the libs are destroying the nuclear family. 

Edited October 20 by mdmost

[Js1 87281]

JR’s actual blog says Dems are currently matching their registration in Clark so far and outpacing their registration in Washoe.

Considering nationwide that independents are younger, POCs or moderate Republicans, it’s a safe assumption that they favor Harris 

[Tuco 5094]

2 hours ago, TexasEd said:

I'm betting there is institutional fraud here.  You have to launder that campaign cash somehow.

I think it's likely just normal, everyday arrogance and incompetence endemic to the tech bro culture.  Musk is outsourcing these efforts.  I guarantee the winning presentations included the terms "disruptors", "data-driven", and "six sigma." The superPAC has previously fired In Field Strategies in Florida (Rolling Stone) and the September Group in Nevada/Arizona (The Guardian)".  Not surprisingly, Musk's SuperPAC is poorly run and surrounds itself with poorly run vendors.  It gives me some solace that the world's richest man throwing money at Trump's campaign is about as effective as throwing it at a literal dumpster fire. They don't understand regular people, which makes it impossible to manage canvassing, which is just regular people talking to regular people.  

 

On 10/18/2024 at 5:19 PM, Ted Lange said:

If someone is voting for the first time they are eligible in November all they’ve known is Trump.  Their whole political frame of reference is based on having a lunatic like Trump at the top of the ticket for one party.   It’s their normal. 

Now compare Musk's / Trump's campaign against Harris's.  It is supercharged by young people, who have known Trump since before high school.  They are clever, undaunted, and fully committed.  This isn't just about a paycheck for them.  I have high hopes for this generation. 

[Pato del Muerto 53581]

6 minutes ago, Tuco said:

them.  I have high hopes for this generation. 

 

And to continue the princess bride theme:

(Is trump selling anything?)

Edited October 20 by Pato del Muerto

[flatdawgs 1338]

Received ballot here in WA Friday and will drop off tomorrow. Definitely not a swing state (Seattle was D+84 on 91% turnout in 2020), but I'm sure the 12 EVs will be appreciated on Election Day. 

A little bit about how it works here for those of you doing the work to get people to the polls, early voting, and the like. WA was the second fully vote by mail state and has been such for 20 or so years. There are in-person voting centers if you need, or if you want to register - you can register and vote until the polls close at 8pm on election day. There are also drop boxes, some 80 in my county - 2 within 5 minutes of me, and which I'll use rather than the mail. You can sign up for texts that let you know when your ballot is received, counted, etc. Ballots mailed or dropped by 8pm election day are counted.

Thanks to all of you doing the hard work in TX, GA and elsewhere - although I hope someday all states make exercising the right to vote as easy as it is here; even the R candidate for governor has been doing GOTV spots - y'all are making the difference in places where they really don't want people to vote. Believe me, it's appreciated here.

[Pato del Muerto 53581]

7 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

Received ballot here in WA Friday and will drop off tomorrow. Definitely not a swing state (Seattle was D+84 on 91% turnout in 2020), but I'm sure the 12 EVs will be appreciated on Election Day. 

A little bit about how it works here for those of you doing the work to get people to the polls, early voting, and the like. WA was the second fully vote by mail state and has been such for 20 or so years. There are in-person voting centers if you need, or if you want to register - you can register and vote until the polls close at 8pm on election day. There are also drop boxes, some 80 in my county - 2 within 5 minutes of me, and which I'll use rather than the mail. You can sign up for texts that let you know when your ballot is received, counted, etc. Ballots mailed or dropped by 8pm election day are counted.

Thanks to all of you doing the hard work in TX, GA and elsewhere - although I hope someday all states make exercising the right to vote as easy as it is here; even the R candidate for governor has been doing GOTV spots - y'all are making the difference in places where they really don't want people to vote. Believe me, it's appreciated here.

I’m in Snohomish co, haven’t looked at demos to see if local races are competitive or not and in which direction.  Got my ballot yesterday and will be completing it today. 
 

Further color for WA state registration, you can register online until like 5 days before Election Day and then in person only thru Election Day. I assume this is a fraud prevention measure.  I think Texas and others are dumb and unconstitutional for having registration dates so far out.  Every citizen in the country should have the opportunity to register up through Election Day, even if it becomes increasingly inconvenient to do so as that date approaches.  Encourage early registration, allow for late. 

Edited October 20 by Pato del Muerto

[speed817 19985]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

 

[Js1 87281]

GOP is definitely pushing early voting more - I assume they want to bank votes because Trump is clearly in cognitive decline and his health is failing. Don’t want to make them wait and then he strokes out next week or the week after 

The other thing to note - be wary of anyone screaming that the early vote is evidence of a red wave. If we learned anything in 2022, it was the vast number of Dems who switched to voting on Election Day.  It is NOT 2020 and no Covid, so it’s hard to make 1:1 comparisons to 2020 EV turnout 

[NWBuck 8630]

26 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

Received ballot here in WA Friday and will drop off tomorrow.

 

21 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m in Snohomish co... Got my ballot yesterday and will be completing it today

Dropped mine off in the box on Friday morning 

[atomheartbevo 90670]

37 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Now compare Musk's / Trump's campaign against Harris's.  It is supercharged by young people, who have known Trump since before high school.  They are clever, undaunted, and fully committed.  This isn't just about a paycheck for them.  I have high hopes for this generation. 

30 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

And to continue the princess bride theme

Musk and Trump’s vendors are going to knock on a door, ask if they’ve heard of Trump, if they are going to vote, and maybe one or two other things. These are people that are stuck with this job and just trying to hit the quota so they can get paid, and fudging their numbers when they can (including standing on the sidewalk and deciding they aren’t home),

Harris’s door knockers are going to be like fucking cross-fitters or Mormons or desktop Linux users and will do everything they can to sell the person on showing up to vote and why it’s crucial to the country’s future,

[Gatorubet 30783]

This is very simplistic, but this is my take. Trump was always bad Trump, but only recently has he become clearly crazy deranged, even more racist, and authoritarian and vengeful.  Only recently does he wander around for 20 minutes dancing on stage and talk about Palmer’s genitals.

We got a look at this in 2020 and said, “no thank you.”.  Even though the cult does not care what he does, I have to think that the growing number of independents look at that and think about how much they want four more years of it.    

The short version is I think that crazy dementia Trump will turn off enough independents that those numbers will shift even more Democratic than 2020.  5% maybe. 

[Pancho 46370]

[HenryJames 67464]

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

MAHA!

[CTC2 2865]

13 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

This is very simplistic, but this is my take. Trump was always bad Trump, but only recently has he become clearly crazy deranged, even more racist, and authoritarian and vengeful.  Only recently does he wander around for 20 minutes dancing on stage and talk about Palmer’s genitals.

We got a look at this in 2020 and said, “no thank you.”.  Even though the cult does not care what he does, I have to think that the growing number of independents look at that and think about how much they want four more years of it.    

The short version is I think that crazy dementia Trump will turn off enough independents that those numbers will shift even more Democratic than 2020.  5% maybe. 

That’s not a bad take but I think the country is more racist, dumb, and disengaged than you are factoring in. 

[Gatorubet 30783]

Just now, CTC2 said:

That’s not a bad take but I think the country is more racist, dumb, and disengaged than you are factoring in. 

You are entirely correct. That is my optimistic take. That includes four years of dirt napping Trump fans who did not get Covid vaccinations, and four years of new 18 to 22 year-old voters…and some abortion ballot referendums. 

[Pato del Muerto 53581]

17 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Hair nets in the food prep areas!!

[CTC2 2865]

2 hours ago, dieucla98 said:

Religion is far too important to a huge portion of this country that you can't avoid them mixing. You cannot win without playing up the God card and motivating the religious group. 

And the fact that their new Jesus is orange makes that all the more crazy. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5908]

Many people say, look I haven't seen it myself, but the guys at the club say it's at least this big. That's how Arnie's Army started. 

 

[Tuco 5094]

I’m in Snohomish co, haven’t looked at demos to see if local races are competitive or not and in which direction.  Got my ballot yesterday and will be completing it today. 
 
Further color for WA state registration, you can register online until like 5 days before Election Day and then in person only thru Election Day. I assume this is a fraud prevention measure.  I think Texas and others are dumb and unconstitutional for having registration dates so far out.  Every citizen in the country should have the opportunity to register up through Election Day, even if it becomes increasingly inconvenient to do so as that date approaches.  Encourage early registration, allow for late. 

Columbia City here.

One the craziest things when the state government has decided to get the public more power: “democracy vouchers”. I think it is $100 in vouchers they give to every voter that you can pledge for any campaign. (Maybe just local races.). It means anybody, regardless of their personal wealth or backing, can gather enough seed money to get a campaign rolling if they connect with enough voters. Trying to level the playing field.

[BrickHorn 18450]

2 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Soul Pole?

[jimmyjazz 47295]

I still find it hard to believe that this dude

 

is this dude:

 

[tx 3 putt 78737]

too little, too late 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

saw a few maga hats around the tailgate yesterday. frustratingly all Texas fans.

[Pato del Muerto 53581]

Mentioned upthread:

 

[Ghost of LL 15705]

18 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Amazing that Trump/Cruz have nothing besides punching down on Trans people. 
 

fucking losers. 

I mean, yeah.  But I care so much about women's sports that I have to vote for the rapist.

[Bozo_Casanova 26905]

7 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

saw a few maga hats around the tailgate yesterday. frustratingly all Texas fans.

Somebody yelled “more like FAGA!” at the one person I saw in a MAGA hat at the Fair last Monday.  Not suggesting that you should do the same. 

[Pato del Muerto 53581]

Also saw this flag but couldn’t stop for a pic- first I’ve been aware of this adaptation 

[Brisketexan 107008]

Somebody yelled “more like FAGA!” at the one person I saw in a MAGA hat at the Fair last Monday.  Not suggesting that you should do the same. 

Watched the first half of the UT game at Turnstile bar yesterday (crowd was UT and Austin FC fans). Pregame, they showed celebs at the game. Crowd didn’t react till Joe Rogan was on-screen, then it was a chorus of spontaneous boos. Was nice to hear, made my wife and me smile.

[Bozo_Casanova 26905]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Watched the first half of the UT game at Turnstile bar yesterday (crowd was UT and Austin FC fans). Pregame, they showed celebs at the game. Crowd didn’t react till Joe Rogan was on-screen, then it was a chorus of spontaneous boos. Was nice to hear, made my wife and me smile.

Heartwarming, honestly 

[wood 11770]

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

Soul Pole?

So cool that both of my boys played baseball games at that field. And I almost forgot, I coached there as well.

Edited October 20 by wood

[Francisco 2.0 32609]

I was out yesterday and saw a woman wearing a fucking red hat with the white letters on the front.  I had an immediate internal reaction, and probably had some kind of grimace on my face as she approached.  Then, as she got closer, I read her hat:

"MAKE AMERICA SANE AGAIN"

I smiled at her, and nodded my head in appreciation.  Of course the joke is probably on me, she may have been full blown MAGA and that's an alternative slogan they are still workshopping.

 

 

[Js1 87281]

3 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

I was out yesterday and saw a woman wearing a fucking red hat with the white letters on the front.  I had an immediate internal reaction, and probably had some kind of grimace on my face as she approached.  Then, as she got closer, I read her hat:

"MAKE AMERICA SANE AGAIN"

I smiled at her, and nodded my head in appreciation.  Of course the joke is probably on me, she may have been full blown MAGA and that's an alternative slogan they are still workshopping.

 

 

I do love people taking back the red hat. The best is Make America Gay Again but Sane is good too. 

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13636]

1 hour ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Many people say, look I haven't seen it myself, but the guys at the club say it's at least this big. That's how Arnie's Army started. 

 

Slime at the fry machine

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

man, those kids are gonna have a story to tell for a lifetime

[Bozo_Casanova 26905]

I’m not bedwetting and I realize this board doesn’t love Nate Silver, but I don’t disagree with any of these.   Harris has done well, but she was an underdog from the beginning and Trump understands his audience well. Meanwhile the Democrat consultant class doesn’t really understand and can’t relate to either his audience or the bulk of their own.