2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Hank Kingsley 21809]

It's understandable to see the news/photos/videos and immediately think "It can't get worse than this in Gaza". But then if you critically think, it ABSOLUTELY can and will get worse if Trump becomes President. 

There are no good answers, but the argument that Kamala (post-election victory) would challenge Netanyahu and help end these atrocities is the only answer on the multiple choice test that could be correct outside of "none of the above". 

 

 

[Sawbonz 28243]

Also I absolutely agree that desperate people make unreasonable/irrational choices, and I will try my best to be empathetic towards them if those choices result in Trump coming back into power. 

[Ghost of LL 15705]

He's all I can tell you, @BrickHorn--in 2017 when Trump implemented his "Muslim ban," a bunch of lawyers sprinted down to airports right across the country to greet Muslims (including green-card holders) who were being denied entry to file lawsuits on their behalf pro bono.

When Trump does it again in 2025, fucking nobody's going to any airport to help.  

[Red Five 41780]

Trump doing Joe Rogan’s show in Austin on Friday.

[aggie08 21848]

7 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I am saying that the "walking a tightrope" analogy assumes some sort of balance between two bad consequences - falling off right or falling off left.  In the case of political campaign, it generally means striking a balance that loses the least votes.  And that affects policy between the elections.  If the Arab American or Muslim American votes can just be assumed, there is no longer balance.  It's not a tight rope anymore.  Do you disagree with any of that? 

Not at all. And I can certainly understand their anger, frustration, and hesitancy to vote for what they see as a continuation of the current administration's policies. Basically, we can get Ukraine to follow strict guidelines in order to continue receiving weapons; why can't we do the same with Israel?

The tightrope is lose a lot of votes from a smaller community or a lot of votes from a larger community (not just Jews, but everyone who will raise an eyebrow that we seemingly withdrew support from an ally and sided with those "pro-Hamas" protesters they hear so much about).

And opting for the latter obviously wouldn't stop the violence. Israel doesn't need any more of our weapons to enact their will on the region. Which is why I'm sure many here would support some kind of humanitarian aid only policy...after the election.

[Aqua Buddha 14809]

Just now, Ghost of LL said:

He's all I can tell you, @BrickHorn--in 2017 when Trump implemented his "Muslim ban," a bunch of lawyers sprinted down to airports right across the country to greet Muslims (including green-card holders) who were being denied entry to file lawsuits on their behalf pro bono.

When Trump does it again in 2025, fucking nobody's going to any airport to help.  

From what I understand, a good number of Jews are upset with the BLM crowd.  The Jews feel that they were 100% supportive of BLM but now BLM is for Hamas.   

But to your point, no one is going to give a fuck if that happens again.

[honolulu horn 6241]

Here's me on this thread, whenever I see a big white box that will eventually materialize into a screen cap or twitter post after about 5-10 seconds:

Immediately scroll to the bottom of the post to see if there's a majority of horns up / smile emojis vs rage emojis. That way I can prepare myself for whatever information will eventually display on my laptop. 

Key to my emotions:

Horns up / heart emojis = good polling data, wait for the white box to morph with quiet confidence

Rage emojis = bad polling data or Trump saying something especially racist (beyond his usual baseline), feel stomach drop while waiting for the bad news

Laugh emojis = Trump or Vance being their usual dipshit selves or the Harris camp doing something badass to put the Rs in their rightful place, wait for the info to materialize with optimism but also know that a lot of shit that people think is funny is actually regarded

Drool emojis= some sexy photo or especially promising polling data, hope like hell for the latter but resign myself to time in my bunk if it's the former

Edited October 22 by honolulu horn

[mdmost 44110]

Kamala has said repeatedly that we need to get a ceasefire done that protects people in Gaza. She refused to go to the Bibi's address of Congress and made him come to see her at the Old Executive office building. Trump hasn't said one word about a ceasefire, has said Biden shouldn't be stepping in Bibi's way, and tells Bibi he shouldn't agree to any deal. So they're obviously the same.

Edited October 22 by mdmost

[Satchel 6983]

Not exactly news, but it’s terrifying that this is where we are:

Journalist Bob Woodward said in an interview with podcaster Tim Miller on October 17 that Dan Coats, Donald Trump's former director of national intelligence, suspects Russian President Vladimir Putin is blackmailing the Republican nominee

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-intel-chief-dan-coats-suspected-putins-blackmail-bob-woodward-1971807

On Miller's The Bulwark Podcast, Woodward discussed how he spoke with Coats while writing his latest book, War, about Trump's relationship with Putin during his presidency and after.

Discussing the pair's relationship, which Coats reportedly called an "enigma," Woodward said, "Coats who, for two and a half years was Trump's director of national intelligence, all the intelligence agencies, including the CIA, sees this. They don't have all of the information, but he sees it."

He continued, "This is so strange, it is so subservient on Trump's part. He actually asks when I discussed this with Coats several months ago, he said 'is this blackmail?' In other words, is Trump being blackmailed?"

 

 

[Dahobbs 18391]

1 minute ago, BrickHorn said:

Okay then. Lay out your argument. 

You've said there is a reasonable argument that Trump will be better than Harris. There isn't. He said he won't be. Trump said he wants Bibi to punish those in Gaza. I don't see any reasonable argument that can be made that he in fact will not support those things. 

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-claims-netanyahu-disregarded-bidens-advice-on-war-was-right-to-do-so/

Quote

Former US president Donald Trump claimed Saturday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has disregarded the advice of his successor, US President Joe Biden, adding that Israel is in a better position in its ongoing multi-front war because of it.

* * *

“Bibi didn’t listen to him and I’ll tell you what, they’re in a much stronger position now than they were three months ago… Nobody’s ever seen anything like that,” Trump said

* * * 

“[Netanyahu] said, ‘It’s incredible what’s happened,’ and I said, ‘It’s pretty incredible,” Trump said of the call, adding: “But he wouldn’t listen to Biden, because if he did, they wouldn’t be in this position.”

* * * 

“He was asking what I thought. And I just said, you do what you have to do,” Trump said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/27/trump-israel-gaza-policy-donors/ (pay wall)

Quote

Trump told donors he will crush pro-Palestinian protests, deport demonstrators

https://www.npr.org/2024/09/20/g-s1-23859/trump-jewish-voters-israel-election-2024

Quote

Trump tells Jewish voters they have 'no excuse' for supporting Harris

Former President Donald Trump is casting himself as Israel’s "protector" and warning Jewish voters against supporting his rival, Vice President Harris.

Trump addressed the Israeli-American Council summit in Washington, D.C, on Thursday, during an evening focused on commemorating the October 7 attacks that sparked Israel’s war with Hamas.

Speaking to a mostly friendly crowd, Trump touted his past support for Israel and, without providing evidence, claimed that the Jewish state will soon cease to exist unless he’s elected.

“It’s total annihilation — that’s what you’re talking about,” Trump said. “You have a big protector in me. You don’t have a protector on the other side.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-criticized-palestinian-insult-debate-with-biden-2024-06-28/

Quote

 

Trump criticized for 'Palestinian' insult in debate with Biden

* * * 

"The only one who wants the war to continue is Hamas," Biden said. Trump responded by saying Biden has "become like a Palestinian," which rights advocates said came across as a slur.

"Actually, Israel is the one (that wants to keep going), and you should let them go and let them finish the job. He (Biden) doesn’t want to do it. He's become like a Palestinian but they don't like him because he's a very bad Palestinian. He's a weak one," Trump said.

 

So yeah, you tell me how you can objectively and reasonably make the argument that the guy that wants Israel to finish the job and treats Palestinian like an insult is good for them. If you're only argument is that well, it didn't happen when he was President, that's merely because conditions in the area hadn't yet deteriorated to the point of war. It isn't because of anything he did or any position he had. 

[Js1 87281]

1 minute ago, Satchel said:

Not exactly news, but it’s terrifying that this is where we are:

Journalist Bob Woodward said in an interview with podcaster Tim Miller on October 17 that Dan Coats, Donald Trump's former director of national intelligence, suspects Russian President Vladimir Putin is blackmailing the Republican nominee

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-intel-chief-dan-coats-suspected-putins-blackmail-bob-woodward-1971807

On Miller's The Bulwark Podcast, Woodward discussed how he spoke with Coats while writing his latest book, War, about Trump's relationship with Putin during his presidency and after.

Discussing the pair's relationship, which Coats reportedly called an "enigma," Woodward said, "Coats who, for two and a half years was Trump's director of national intelligence, all the intelligence agencies, including the CIA, sees this. They don't have all of the information, but he sees it."

He continued, "This is so strange, it is so subservient on Trump's part. He actually asks when I discussed this with Coats several months ago, he said 'is this blackmail?' In other words, is Trump being blackmailed?"

 

 

No

Fuckin

Shit

[immamac 44414]

this isn't the fucking israel thread. 

The President of the United States isn't in charge of Israel. The election isn't about Israel. Stop posting about it here. 

[chainsaw 10307]

Here's some lunchtime analysis of Texas early vote data and what it could mean about enthusiasm

Day One 2020 vs. Day One 2024

Nine populous Blue-ish Counties (no data yet for Hays and Williamson)

Spoiler

Harris County (Biden won by 13.25 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 5.16 percent in Harris County vs. 4.69 percent in 2024 (a .47 YoY drop)

Dallas County (Biden won by 31.6 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.36 percent in Dallas County vs. 4.36 percent in 2024 (a .54 YoY drop)

Tarrant County (Biden won by .22 points so not fully Blue more like 50/50) - 2020 Day One turnout was 3.49 in Tarrant County vs. 4.45 in 2024 (a .96 YoY increase)

Bexar County (Biden won by 18.15 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 2.78 percent in Bexar County vs. 3.61 percent in 2024 (a .93 YoY increase)

Travis County (Biden won by 44.98 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.19 percent in Travis County vs. 5.03 percent in 2024 (a .84 YoY increase)

El Paso County (Biden won by 35.10 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 3.9 percent in El Paso County vs. 3.42 percent in 2024 (a .47 YoY drop)

Fort Bend County (Biden won by 10.56 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 2.66 percent in Fort Bend County vs. 5.48 percent in 2024 (a 1.92 YoY increase)

Hidalgo County (Biden won by 17.06 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.85 percent in Hidalgo County vs. 4.09 percent in 2024 (a .76 YoY drop)

Cameron County (Biden won by 13.15 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 5.02 percent in Cameron County vs. 4.65 percent in 2024 (a .37 YoY drop)

Eight populous Red Counties (no usable data yet for Bell, Lubbock, or Smith)

Spoiler

 

Collin County (Trump won by 4.34 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 6.08 percent in Collin County vs. 5.8 percent in 2024 (a .28 YoY increase)

Denton County (Trump won by 8.08 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 6.38 percent in Denton County vs. 7.53 percent in 2024 (a 1.15 YoY increase)

Montgomery County (Trump won by 43.83 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 2.8 percent in Montgomery County vs. 3.65 in 2024 (a .85 YoY increase)

Galveston County (Trump won by 22.61 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 7.56 percent in Galveston County vs. 6.93 percent in 2024 (a .63 YoY drop)

Brazoria County (Trump won by 18.20 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 5.89 percent in Brazoria County vs. 6.67 percent in 2024 (a .78 YoY increase)

Nueces County (Trump won by 2.90 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.69 percent in Nueces County vs. 4.15 percent in 2024 (a .54 YoY drop)

McLennan County (Trump won by 23.35 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 3.45 percent in McLennan County vs. 3.85 in 2024 (a 0.4 YoY increase)

Jefferson County (Trump won by 1.58 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 6.14 percent in Hidalgo County vs. 6.24 percent in 2024 (a .1 YoY increase)

Not sure what to make of this data. If I get a chance I might try and drill down and see which precinct's voters were showing up in Tarrant, Fort Bend, Collin, and Denton counties.

But if we're using this as a way to estimate voter enthusiasm, these shifts don't line up much with the narrative that Trumpy areas are less motivated to get out and vote. I'm limiting all this to Texas, of course.

[jimmyjazz 47298]

It's a thread (in part) about Muslim-American voting block tendencies, so yes, the war in Israel is relevant.

[Fudge Nuggets 19473]

10 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

Here's me on this thread, whenever I see a big white box that will eventually materialize into a screen cap or twitter post after about 5-10 seconds:

Immediately scroll to the bottom of the post to see if there's a majority of horns up / smile emojis vs rage emojis. That way I can prepare myself for whatever information will eventually display on my laptop. 

Key to my emotions:

Horns up / heart emojis = good polling data, wait for the white box to morph with quiet confidence

Rage emojis = bad polling data or Trump saying something especially racist (beyond his usual baseline), feel stomach drop while waiting for the bad news

Laugh emojis = Trump or Vance being their usual dipshit selves or the Harris camp doing something badass to put the Rs in their rightful place, wait for the info to materialize with optimism but also know that a lot of shit that people think is funny is actually regarded

Drool emojis= some sexy photo or especially promising polling data, hope like hell for the latter but resign myself to time in my bunk if it's the former

You need faster internet.

[Js1 87281]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Here's some lunchtime analysis of Texas early vote data and what it could mean about enthusiasm

Day One 2020 vs. Day One 2024

Nine populous Blue-ish Counties (no data yet for Hays and Williamson)

  Reveal hidden contents

Harris County (Biden won by 13.25 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 5.16 percent in Harris County vs. 4.69 percent in 2024 (a .47 YoY drop)

Dallas County (Biden won by 31.6 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.36 percent in Dallas County vs. 4.36 percent in 2024 (a .54 YoY drop)

Tarrant County (Biden won by .22 points so not fully Blue more like 50/50) - 2020 Day One turnout was 3.49 in Tarrant County vs. 4.45 in 2024 (a .96 YoY increase)

Bexar County (Biden won by 18.15 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 2.78 percent in Bexar County vs. 3.61 percent in 2024 (a .93 YoY increase)

Travis County (Biden won by 44.98 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.19 percent in Travis County vs. 5.03 percent in 2024 (a .84 YoY increase)

El Paso County (Biden won by 35.10 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 3.9 percent in El Paso County vs. 3.42 percent in 2024 (a .47 YoY drop)

Fort Bend County (Biden won by 10.56 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 2.66 percent in Fort Bend County vs. 5.48 percent in 2024 (a 1.92 YoY increase)

Hidalgo County (Biden won by 17.06 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.85 percent in Hidalgo County vs. 4.09 percent in 2024 (a .76 YoY drop)

Cameron County (Biden won by 13.15 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 5.02 percent in Cameron County vs. 4.65 percent in 2024 (a .37 YoY drop)

Eight populous Red Counties (no usable data yet for Bell, Lubbock, or Smith)

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Collin County (Trump won by 4.34 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 6.08 percent in Collin County vs. 5.8 percent in 2024 (a .28 YoY increase)

Denton County (Trump won by 8.08 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 6.38 percent in Denton County vs. 7.53 percent in 2024 (a 1.15 YoY increase)

Montgomery County (Trump won by 43.83 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 2.8 percent in Montgomery County vs. 3.65 in 2024 (a .85 YoY increase)

Galveston County (Trump won by 22.61 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 7.56 percent in Galveston County vs. 6.93 percent in 2024 (a .63 YoY drop)

Brazoria County (Trump won by 18.20 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 5.89 percent in Brazoria County vs. 6.67 percent in 2024 (a .78 YoY increase)

Nueces County (Trump won by 2.90 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.69 percent in Nueces County vs. 4.15 percent in 2024 (a .54 YoY drop)

McLennan County (Trump won by 23.35 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 3.45 percent in McLennan County vs. 3.85 in 2024 (a 0.4 YoY increase)

Jefferson County (Trump won by 1.58 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 6.14 percent in Hidalgo County vs. 6.24 percent in 2024 (a .1 YoY increase)

Not sure what to make of this data. If I get a chance I might try and drill down and see which precinct's voters were showing up in Tarrant, Fort Bend, Collin, and Denton counties.

But if we're using this as a way to estimate voter enthusiasm, these shifts don't line up much with the narrative that Trumpy areas are less motivated to get out and vote. I'm limiting all this to Texas, of course.

It’s REALLY hard to make sweeping assumptions and compare 2024 to 2020. That was truly a once in a lifetime type of election.  The extreme polarization of early/mail vs Election Day doesn’t really exist anymore

The big thing is the GOP is not demonizing it this time. They want it bank votes bc their candidate could stroke out at any moment. Or be shot at, again 

Edited October 22 by Js1

[TexEx15 17959]

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19473]

7 minutes ago, Satchel said:

Not exactly news, but it’s terrifying that this is where we are:

Journalist Bob Woodward said in an interview with podcaster Tim Miller on October 17 that Dan Coats, Donald Trump's former director of national intelligence, suspects Russian President Vladimir Putin is blackmailing the Republican nominee

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-intel-chief-dan-coats-suspected-putins-blackmail-bob-woodward-1971807

On Miller's The Bulwark Podcast, Woodward discussed how he spoke with Coats while writing his latest book, War, about Trump's relationship with Putin during his presidency and after.

Discussing the pair's relationship, which Coats reportedly called an "enigma," Woodward said, "Coats who, for two and a half years was Trump's director of national intelligence, all the intelligence agencies, including the CIA, sees this. They don't have all of the information, but he sees it."

He continued, "This is so strange, it is so subservient on Trump's part. He actually asks when I discussed this with Coats several months ago, he said 'is this blackmail?' In other words, is Trump being blackmailed?"

 

 

I have no idea how you blackmail someone that leads a cult and has absolutely no shame.

[Fudge Nuggets 19473]

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

So yeah, you tell me how you can objectively and reasonably make the argument that the guy that wants Israel to finish the job and treats Palestinian like an insult is good for them.

He was just kidding; didn't mean it, my dude.

[chainsaw 10307]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

It’s REALLY hard to make sweeping assumptions and compare 2024 to 2020. That was truly a once in a lifetime type of election.  The extreme polarization of early/mail vs Election Day doesn’t really exist anymore

The big thing is the GOP is not demonizing it this time. They want it bank votes bc their candidate could stroke out at any moment. Or be shot at, again 

I liked what I saw in Travis and Bexar counties, so long as the right folks have been showing up. That's why it's hard to say what these numbers mean, especially somewhere like Fort Bend.

[Dahobbs 18391]

8 minutes ago, immamac said:

this isn't the fucking israel thread. 

The President of the United States isn't in charge of Israel. The election isn't about Israel. Stop posting about it here. 

It would be really nice if your random severe moderating didn't delete a post I spent some time on 5 seconds after I posted it with no fucking warning. 

Edited October 22 by Dahobbs

[immamac 44414]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

It would be really nice if your random severe moderating didn't delete a post I spent some time on 5 seconds after I posted it with no fucking warning. 

i didn't delete anything

[Brian Fantana 6875]

The post is still there but the discussion is relevant to the election dude

[Blotto 24044]

Ten. Ten f'n emails from the Harris Walz campaign soliciting donations sitting in my inbox since yesterday morning. I guess they wanted me to unsubscribe. You got my vote, but holy shit, stop the madness. 

Edited October 22 by Blotto

[sidis 10019]

39 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Okay then. Lay out your argument. 

i think it has something to do with billy gibbons not being able to replicate prince's guitar intro to "when doves cry."

[Dahobbs 18391]

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

i didn't delete anything

My bad. I tried to edit away a typo and it appeared to be deleted. Mea culpa. 

[immamac 44414]

I'm not arguing about it. Take it to the right thread. If you have voter data or polls showing something that's related that's fine. 

[StassneyHorn 6790]

Why are people still worried about polls when early voting data is available/will become more in focus this week?

[Pancho 46370]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

 

[hookem2010 2700]

Nah, too far away. I need numbers NOW!!! Accuracy be damned

[Tuco 5094]

2 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Why are people still worried about polls when early voting data is available/will become more in focus this week?

Because we are the point of the campaign where we are going to start throwing turtle shells into the fire to read the cracks.  It's human tradition to seek out any form of divination to see if we'll win the battle and whether our crops will get rain.  5000 years of desperation can't be wrong. 

[Pancho 46370]

 

[Aqua Buddha 14809]

Headline vs actual story.  The entire media is basically click bait.

 

Headline:

Republicans Eat Into Democrats’ Early Voting Advantage

Very first paragraph from actual story:

Democrats have a clear edge in early voting so far, but Republicans are embracing the practice of casting their ballots before Election Day more than they have in past election cycles, despite former President Donald Trump sending mixed signals on the issue.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/early-voting-democrats-republicans-election-2024-f0abda67

[Js1 87281]

Lol 

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

 

Yep, they always start to crow about winning VA, CO, NM, etc

[ChiTownDoc 21347]

52 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Trump really is gonna get a chunk of latino/black male voters.  It's the stupid fucking meathead vote.  I've seen it all over.  Fucking ridiculous but more stupid people voting for stupid.  Hard to fight that. 

[PhillyD 1316]

Washington Post Article on early voting.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/22/early-voting-republicans-democrats-trump-harris/

 

Spoiler

Americans are voting ahead of Election Day in historic numbers this year. That includes Republicans, who appear to be responding favorably to a new message from former president Donald Trump: It’s okay to vote early.

Dozens of states have opened in-person early-voting locations, and turnout has been robust. In Georgia, more than 1.6 million people had cast in-person ballots by midmorning Tuesday — nearly one-third of the total vote from four years ago. North Carolina approached 1.3 million Tuesday, the sixth day of early voting. . And in Nevada, Republicans voting in person have outnumbered Democrats — a reversal from four years ago.
Overall, more than 18 million Americans have cast ballots in person or by mail so far this year, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida. That’s more than 10 percent of the overall total who cast ballots four years ago.

What’s less clear is whether the initial burst of voting enthusiasm will last — and to what extent it reflects a displacement from heavy rates of mail voting four years ago during the coronavirus pandemic.
 
“If you have a ballot, return it immediately,” Trump told an Atlanta rally crowd on Oct. 15, the first day of early voting in Georgia. “If not, go tomorrow as soon as you can go to the polls and vote.”
Trump’s rhetoric in 2020 — which included false allegations that Democrats had cast millions of fraudulent ballots that lifted Joe Biden to victory — suppressed voting by mail and early voting among his supporters. Some in the GOP linked those attacks to lower turnout and even losses in some corners of the country, including in two Georgia runoff elections on Jan. 5, 2021, that cost the party control of the U.S. Senate.
Democrats have embraced early voting for years, in part because it leaves less to chance on Election Day, when busy schedules, bad weather or illness can keep voters from making it to the polls. Known as “banking” votes, early voting also allows campaigns to be more efficient with resources as Election Day draws near by focusing attention on a smaller and smaller group of voters who have not yet cast ballots. Many in the GOP had encouraged Trump to change his tune on both early and mail voting as a way to level the playing field with Democrats, and his early-voting push has been eagerly embraced by others in the party.
“We can’t afford to wait,” Wisconsin GOP Chairman Brian Schimming said during a news conference Monday. “We encourage people to vote early because you never know what’s going on with the weather.”
Schimming’s counterpart in Michigan, Pete Hoekstra, posted a photo on social media with his wife, each of them holding mail ballots. They were “too excited to wait,” he wrote.
Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who compiles voting numbers for the Election Lab, said his data shows that most Americans who have cast ballots in person are high-propensity voters. That means, he said, that they aren’t necessarily new voters. They are often people who previously voted on Election Day, or by mail in 2020, and are now opting to cast their ballots early.
McDonald also warned against drawing too many conclusions from early-voting numbers, whether low or high, because reporting lags are common.
He said the real test of whether Trump’s message has fully penetrated his base is whether the numbers remain strong over the next two weeks. One factor is likely to work against him: Younger voters tend to cast their ballots much later, and they will skew for Harris.
“That’s happened every cycle since I’ve been watching,” he said.
Even as Trump has embraced early in-person voting, his message has been more mixed on mail voting, which he has continued to criticize even as he has occasionally encouraged his supporters to use it.
In a recent Fox interview, Trump said he was not confident in the election because of mail voting but added that he did not want to discourage people from voting that way.
At a rally in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, in August, he said, “We want to get rid of mail-in voting.” In North Carolina, he has encouraged those displaced by Hurricane Helene to request mail ballots wherever they are temporarily living and has even asked state election officials to make it easier for displaced voters to return their ballots to their home counties.
In Pennsylvania, Republican officials have actively encouraged their supporters to vote by mail, investing millions in get-out-the-vote efforts. But they have also filed lawsuits seeking to throw out mail-in ballots over technicalities, such as putting the wrong date on the ballot envelope.

At an event Sunday in suburban Milwaukee, Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance called for supporters to cast ballots “in every single way that they can” — even as he expressed reservations about early voting.
“I don’t like election season,” Vance said. “I like Election Day, but as Donald Trump has said, it is what it is. And if the Democrats are going to use every method of voting possible, then the Republicans, we’ve got to do it too.”
That mixed message appears to be having an impact on returns. In states that track the party affiliation of returned ballots, Democrats are vastly outvoting Republicans among mailed ballots, just as they did in 2020.
In Nevada, where preliminary data shows that about 250,000 voters have cast ballots so far, Democrats represent 43 percent of returned mail ballots while Republicans account for about 30 percent.

Republican in-person turnout, meanwhile, is ahead of where it was four years ago. In Nevada, the GOP share of in-person totals was 52 percent as of late Monday, whereas the Democratic share was 28 percent.
In Pennsylvania, more than 1 million mail-in ballots had been returned as of Tuesday morning. Of that total, about 650,000 are Democrats, 300,000 are Republicans, and 100,000 are neither. In 2020, more than 2.6 million Pennsylvanians returned mail-in ballots. Pennsylvania has no in-person early voting, which could prove problematic for Trump since Republican voters are not flocking to mail voting, McDonald said.
Seth Bluestein, a Philadelphia city commissioner, said that in elections since the pandemic, more voters have returned to casting their ballots on Election Day. “I don’t think we can draw any conclusions about voter enthusiasm from the early mail ballots,” he said. “A lot of voters plan to vote in person, so I don’t think there is any comparative election we could look at.”
Elsewhere the data is harder to read, and experts cautioned that in all states, early returns should be examined cautiously because trends can easily reverse themselves. This year brings unique challenges in interpreting the numbers because the 2020 vote, held amid lockdowns and other pandemic restrictions, was so exceptional.

In Arizona, about half a million voters had cast their ballots as of Sunday, according to data tracked by Phoenix-based Democratic consultant Sam Almy. Republicans, who hold a registration advantage in the state, were nearly on pace with early ballot returns compared with four years ago, while Democrats were far behind.

But Almy and others cautioned that before the pandemic, Democrats were known to drop off their mail ballots on Election Day, while Republicans typically put their ballots in the mail.

“Either Republicans are coming back to what their traditional performance looked like, or Democrats are significantly underperforming,” said Republican consultant and pollster Paul Bentz. Bottom line, he said: It’s too soon to draw any conclusions.
 

TL/DR  Republicans and Democrats are both voting early this year.

Edited October 22 by PhillyD
paste as plain text

[Bozo_Casanova 26905]

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

For the last time: I am not saying Trump will be better on Gaza. In fact, I believe he will be worse.1

I am merely saying that reasonable people, based on a reasonable assessment of the information available to them, could conclude that he can’t be worse and that a change might improve things. And those same people might reasonably conclude, as a matter of moral principles, that they cannot support someone from an administration that has supported Israel in its Gaza actions. 2

1) I’m not sure why some are arguing this point with you

2) It’s worth pointing out that Hamas sponsors understand this, and it was part of the reason they sent Hamas on an errand that has badly damaged the Palestinian cause and killed many innocent Palestinians. 
 

No one on earth woke up on October 8th and said “this attack benefits Palestine.” It didn’t even make sense for Hamas. The biggest geopolitical beneficiaries were Iran and Russia, in that it would weaken the pillars that hold up the world. I hope that as Arab Americans vote they  understand that Israel is not acting as a US proxy in Gaza, and the Democratic Party and Kamala Harris are not Israel’s proxy in Michigan.

 

[TheStoicPaisano 9953]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Yes! 538 officially says that no matter who you want to win, that's probably not going to happen.

 

Harris

 

499

Trump

 

498

No winner

 

3

1,000

 simulations

 

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

[Pancho 46370]

11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Trump really is gonna get a chunk of latino/black male voters.  It's the stupid fucking meathead vote.  I've seen it all over.  Fucking ridiculous but more stupid people voting for stupid.  Hard to fight that. 

 

Well, straight males/men in general—something is just wrong. The White Gays aren’t far behind.

 

[TexArcher 39076]

7 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

Wait, I thought all Americans were supposed to have military-style weapons.  Aren't these illegals just assimilating?

Oh, it's different when "they" have them.

I see.

 

[locodos 5593]

8 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

He really thinks the Mexicans put sourcream, pico, and shredded lettuce on everything, doesn't he?

[Chewbacca 7830]

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Yes! 538 officially says that no matter who you want to win, that's probably not going to happen.

 

Harris

 

499

Trump

 

498

No winner

 

3

1,000

 simulations

 

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

These motherfuckers are terrified of being wrong again.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13742]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

Obviously 538's analysis shows Trump with a slightly better chance to win but I think anything lower than 60-40 is effectively a tie.  They're saying that in 100 simulations Harris only wins 49 times. In other words, it's a coin flip.

And I would state the same if Harris was up 51-49 in their prediction.

[Js1 87281]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Obviously 538's analysis shows Trump with a slightly better chance to win but I think anything lower than 60-40 is effectively a tie.  They're saying that in 100 simulations Harris only wins 49 times. In other words, it's a coin flip.

And I would state the same if Harris was up 51-49 in their prediction.

538 isn't exempt from the same garbage in, garbage out as other models.  When you start plugging in right wing polling, that has dominated any A+ mainstream polling in the last week, this is what you get.  If GOP firms drop 80% of the polling, the model only has 20% good data and 80% crappy data.

SAME EXACT THING THAT HAPPENED IN 2022.  

I tend to agree with G Elliot Morris (and he's a Horn, so gotta support him) - Harris is about 55% right now based on fundamentals.  More enthusiasm, much better liked, economy is strong, etc. 

[Bateshorn 9991]

27 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Lol 

Yep, they always start to crow about winning VA, CO, NM, etc

Huh, that's weird. Because the Democrats are cancelling Ad buys en masse in competitive states due to confidence.   That suggest to me the opposite:  Dems have locked down their competitive seats and expanding the field in the GOP leans because of what they are seeing internally and on the ground. 

Maybe we will see unprecedented ticket splitting, but if Dems were collapsing on the ground, you'd think they would be pouring money into the the House to try and hold the line.  

Edited October 22 by Bateshorn

[Js1 87281]

6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Huh, that's weird. Because the Democrats are cancelling Ad buys en masse in competitive states due to confidence.   That suggest to me the opposite:  Dems have locked down their competitive seats and expanding the field in the GOP leans because of what they are seeing internally and on the ground. 

Yeah, duh.  Follow the money and where people are going, not what some GOP operative on Twitter says. 

Harris wouldn't be making a trip to Houston this late in the cycle unless their internal polling has Allred in striking distance and a visit could fire up Harris County Dems to push him over the top.  

She is making a late visit somewhere that helps a downballot candidate.  Trump's trips to Coachella, Aurora, New York City, etc. doesn't help anyone downballot.  He didn't feature Garvey at all, there's no governor or Senate race in CO/NY and he didn't feature any of the tossup House candidates in NY/CO/CA. 

Edited October 22 by Js1

[Chopper 17449]

7 minutes ago, PhillyD said:

Washington Post Article on early voting.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/22/early-voting-republicans-democrats-trump-harris/

 

  Hide contents

In states that track the party affiliation of returned ballots, Democrats are vastly outvoting Republicans among mailed ballots, just as they did in 2020.

In Nevada, where preliminary data shows that about 250,000 voters have cast ballots so far, Democrats represent 43 percent of returned mail ballots while Republicans account for about 30 percent.

In Pennsylvania, more than 1 million mail-in ballots had been returned as of Tuesday morning. Of that total, about 650,000 are Democrats, 300,000 are Republicans, and 100,000 are neither. In 2020, more than 2.6 million Pennsylvanians returned mail-in ballots. Pennsylvania has no in-person early voting, which could prove problematic for Trump since Republican voters are not flocking to mail voting, McDonald said.

In Arizona, about half a million voters had cast their ballots as of Sunday, according to data tracked by Phoenix-based Democratic consultant Sam Almy. Republicans, who hold a registration advantage in the state, were nearly on pace with early ballot returns compared with four years ago, while Democrats were far behind.

But Almy and others cautioned that before the pandemic, Democrats were known to drop off their mail ballots on Election Day, while Republicans typically put their ballots in the mail.

TL/DR  Republicans and Democrats are both voting early this year.

That article leaves out and minimizes certain information to tell the story it wants to about a supposedly close horse race. Only 20 percent of 2020 mail-ins have been counted in AZ while in PA it's over 40% of 2020's total.

[Bateshorn 9991]

Just now, Chopper said:

That article leaves out and minimizes certain information to tell the story it wants to about a supposedly close horse race. Only 20 percent of 2020 mail-ins have been counted in AZ while in PA it's over 40% of 2020's total.

Early Voting info, like registrations, doesn't tell the untrained eye all that much, tbh. 

[BurntOrange&White 42005]

lol