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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
2 minutes ago, Red Five said:


Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

Because Trump drives the convo, because people refuse to just ignore him. 

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Posted

Couple things:

Thing one: Stein is almost certain to overperform Harris. That said, I expect the spread to be tighter, and I think it’s very possible both Harris and Robinson could overperform their Election Day polling average in North Carolina for different reasons.
 

Thing two: Over the last four elections,  national polling averages have been off ~3 points (which isn’t much) and swing state polls have missed by 3-4.  In 2008 and 2012, Obama overperformed. In 2016 and 2020, Trump overperformed.

in BOTH cases the miss largely comes down to assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. 
So the assessment at this stage boils down to:

1) are the polls exactly right?

2) if not, who is being under/over weighted in the models, and 

3) who do they vote for?

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Red Five said:


Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

Very much this. It’s so damn silly.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Thing one: Stein is almost certain to overperform Harris. That said, I expect the spread to be tighter, and I think it’s very possible both Harris and Robinson could overperform their Election Day polling average in North Carolina for different reasons.

Stein will def overperform Harris, but I'm guessing Robinson is suffering from the same thing Trump did after Access Hollywood.  

He's definitely going to lose, probably by 7-10 points, but probably a good chunk of people just don't want to admit to voting for him. But they will. 

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

On the whole "did she work at McDonalds" she may have a slight misremembering of the exact details. If she completely made up working at a burger joint if not McDonalds, that's wrong. If she can't remember all of the details, it's understandable.

Take Trump where he claims that he was one of the best high school baseball players in the state of NY. According to him, he even went to a pro tryout alongside future hall-of-famer, Willie McCovey. Sounds impressive.  Investigations showed that Trump batted <.150 in high school but guess what, there are missing box scores from the 60s.  I doubt the best player in NY batted that low. Perhaps his batting average was north of .150.  And as for trying out alongside McCovey, McCovey was already in his 5th year in the MLB when Trump was a senior. So unless Trump tried out for the majors while in junior high, he's completely lying about the situation.

As always Trump's lies are so numerous that we forget how many small lies he's told over the years.

A guy at Slate tracked it down. Not only is it a lie, it's actually pathetic.  He was a part time player, hit below .150, what kinda difficult to play with from a coaching perspective.  The only thing he could do was pick it at first.  He often get's boosted by kids who were years behind or a head of him and can't conspicously recall details. The guys that actually played with him had either very little memory or that he wasn't any good.  He got the equivalant of the senior day award for the kid who stuck it out for 4 years. 

We all played with some version of him HS.  I was basically the equivalent at 2nd base (no arm, can't hit, not terrible with the leather), minus being Fred Trump's shithead son.   

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

As a rural Nebraskan who played 8-man football, there is nothing more than football coaches with a rural Nebraska background love more than an opportunity to call someone a dipshit. 

Dipshit is a top 5 epithet, no doubt about it. I use it constantly. 

 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

As nervous as I am, I'm still willing to take a hit of hopeium, and this is some good shit here:


https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/3-tell-tale-signs-that-kamala-harris-will-beat-donald-trump.html

 

Only thing I quibble with is they are not "fake" polls - they're just poorly done and intentionally altered (i.e., basically eliminating Philly from a live voter sample) 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Red Five said:


Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

What if she's a dishonest person? Do you want to vote for a dishonest person? The American people will never tolerate a dishonest person in the White House.

If she's lying about this, what else might she be lying about?

 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Only thing I quibble with is they are not "fake" polls - they're just poorly done and intentionally altered (i.e., basically eliminating Philly from a live voter sample) 

I think intentionally altered constitues Fake.

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Posted
1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I think interntionally altered constitues Fake.

Dishonest? Manipulated? Fake would imply someone just made up the results.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Literally everything he touches turns to shit:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/mcdonalds-shares-fall-after-cdc-says-e-coli-outbreak-linked-to-quarter-pounders.html

 

McDonald’s shares dropped in extended trading Tuesday after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder burgers has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death.

The agency said 49 cases have been reported in 10 states from Sept. 27 to Oct. 11, with most of the illnesses in Colorado and Nebraska. “Most” sick people reported eating a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder, the CDC added.

LOL and the Pod Save America guys just joked about how McDonald's never kills anyone.

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Posted
Literally everything he touches turns to shit:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/mcdonalds-shares-fall-after-cdc-says-e-coli-outbreak-linked-to-quarter-pounders.html
 

McDonald’s shares dropped in extended trading Tuesday after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder burgers has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death.

The agency said 49 cases have been reported in 10 states from Sept. 27 to Oct. 11, with most of the illnesses in Colorado and Nebraska. “Most” sick people reported eating a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder, the CDC added.


Trump stick his dirty ass dick in the French fry potatoes?
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Posted
30 minutes ago, Red Five said:


Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

She should throw a curve and said it was Burger Chef and not McDs, lets see trump struggle to find an existing BC to cosplay in. 

Posted
33 minutes ago, Red Five said:


Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

I would like to know her qualifications, actually.

this is america GIF

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Literally everything he touches turns to shit:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/mcdonalds-shares-fall-after-cdc-says-e-coli-outbreak-linked-to-quarter-pounders.html

 

McDonald’s shares dropped in extended trading Tuesday after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder burgers has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death.

The agency said 49 cases have been reported in 10 states from Sept. 27 to Oct. 11, with most of the illnesses in Colorado and Nebraska. “Most” sick people reported eating a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder, the CDC added.

 

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Posted

 

1 hour ago, wood said:

Exactly. Absence of proof is not proof of absence, and McDonald's acknowledged they don't keep records that far back. Sometimes, especially back then, if you made less than x amount, you didn't even have to file a tax return. I worked numerous jobs while at UT from 1983-89. Having to prove now that I worked at any one of them would be pretty difficult.

But Trump said it, like he says so many things, so voila ... another 'gotcha' moment for the rubes out there.

Mickey D’s are all franchise-owned anyway. Do all employment records for all Mickey D’s worldwide wind up in the corporate office? There’s a better-than-zero chance the owner/franchisee of the McDonald’s Kamala worked at back in 1983 is fucking dead and gone by now. But seriously, why are we devoting even an ounce of debate to this matter?

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Posted
2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

 

Mickey D’s are all franchise-owned anyway. Do all employment records for all Mickey D’s worldwide wind up in the corporate office? There’s a better-than-zero chance the owner/franchisee of the McDonald’s Kamala worked at back in 1983 is fucking dead and gone by now. But seriously, why are we devoting even an ounce of debate to this matter?

Couldn't she FOIA her own W-2 from the IRS

Posted

Trump has said repeatedly that McDonalds “confirmed” she never worked there. Just fucking made up out of whole cloth. And so the story is “did she work there?” and not “Holy shit look at how crazy Trump is now”.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Couldn't she FOIA her own W-2 from the IRS

Why the fuck should she even entertain this shit? Trump won't release any documents about himself.

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Posted
Just now, safe sex said:

Why the fuck should she even entertain this shit? Trump won't release any documents about himself.

This. Fuck that 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, safe sex said:

Why the fuck should she even entertain this shit? Trump won't release any documents about himself.

I agree. I'm just explaining how she could get them if she ever needed them.

Posted
 
soldier referenced in this story was Vanessa Guillén. I voted in her home district yesterday, the neighborhood has many murals in her honor
image.jpeg.95ae0485d3d87ebefd23850e068bc349.jpeg
image.jpeg.69c6e0307819cf62256fce2f24b7070f.jpeg
image.jpeg.848bf7edc6504a44113ffdaa586f76ba.jpeg
 
 
his comments will score big with his base 
 

They’ll never hear them, nothing matters anymore with this fuckin guy.
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Posted
1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Couple things:

Thing one: Stein is almost certain to overperform Harris. That said, I expect the spread to be tighter, and I think it’s very possible both Harris and Robinson could overperform their Election Day polling average in North Carolina for different reasons.
 

Thing two: Over the last four elections,  national polling averages have been off ~3 points (which isn’t much) and swing state polls have missed by 3-4.  In 2008 and 2012, Obama overperformed. In 2016 and 2020, Trump overperformed.

in BOTH cases the miss largely comes down to assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. 
So the assessment at this stage boils down to:

1) are the polls exactly right?

2) if not, who is being under/over weighted in the models, and 

3) who do they vote for?

TLDR;  1) polling is shit, so 2) nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen, but 3) if you've been paying attention to this timeline, expect the fucking worst.

There, that covers it.

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Posted
Just now, Brisketexan said:

TLDR;  1) polling is shit, so 2) nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen, but 3) if you've been paying attention to this timeline, expect the fucking worst.

There, that covers it.

 

the russians are muddying the polling waters, then radio heads are running with those numbers predicting a huge trump V

if it doesn't happen, they'll all be screaming it was a fraud election 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

He has no paths if he loses NC, right?

He could win without NC if he picks up NV, AZ, GA, PA and MI.  He could even lose WI in that scenario and be fine.

 

Technically possible, but unlikely.

 

Edited by SimonBolivar
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Posted
1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

He could win without NC if he picks up NV, AZ, GA, PA and MI. 

 

 

 

east coast could decide this election very early into the evening 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Nobody wished harm on them that I recall. They said they wouldn't feel bad when it happened. That's a significant difference. 

@Brisketexan concluded that, by voting their conscience, Muslim Americans were throwing a tantrum and seeking to harm anyone who disagreed with them. That is a ludicrous take.

Meanwhile, @Js1 and others expressed rather startling schadenfreude, indicating no sympathy for the eventual suffering of Muslims who voted against the candidate of their choosing. His position was that if Muslim Americans don’t vote the way Js1 demands they vote, then he won’t do shit about it and won’t feel any sympathy if Muslims end up persecuted by Trump. Which is orders of magnitude closer to what Brisket accuses the Muslims of doing, as compared to what the Muslims are actually doing.

Some of y'all are exceptionally smart but have a massive blind spot when it comes to partisan politics. I’m as liberal as it gets and a loyal Democratic voter. But on this issue, it’s understandable why Muslims could not bring themselves to support a Democrat or might come to a different conclusion on the risk calculus compared to the rest of us. I don’t agree with it. I think it reflects a massive underestimation of what a second term Trump would be capable of. But it’s based on legitimate concerns and the actual track record of the current Democratic administration, and being wrong or misjudging the likelihood of future events is not the same as being unreasonable.

It’s too bad the DNC didn’t let a Palestinian speak at the convention, because I think that could have helped. As it is, the party basically signaled that four more years of Democratic rule would be more of the same and Palestinians could fuck off. So now many Muslim Americans are left with two shitty options, from their perspective. 

Edited by BrickHorn
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