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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The Dog said:

I'd make MN dark blue and AZ/GA light blue. Otherwise this seems supported by what we're seeing:

 

I think he means "if actual," not that the actual result is that way. But regardless, I think that's more likely than either the polling average being exactly right or the pollsters underestimating Trumps base again. 

I'm not ready to call my shot, but that's my map if the election was held today. 

BTW - I don't think his shading is anything other than an artifact of setting the colors on the battleground states.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted
11 hours ago, wood said:

Yep. I just thought the big, very sharp difference between SM and NB was interesting. There's no gradation at all. Just blue, then wham, red. What accounts for that? Is it the German factor that was talked about weeks ago?

Those German anti-secessionist genes are long gone.  Its a bunch of transplants from elsewhere, most from Texas so they can create their own like MAGA fiefdom.

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Posted
I think he means "if actual," not that the actual result is that way. But regardless, I think that's more likely than either the polling average being exactly right or the pollsters underestimating Trumps base again. 
I'm not ready to call my shot, but that's my map if the election was held today. 

BTW - I don't think his shading is anything other than an artifact of setting the colors on the battleground states.

That’s my map on the prediction thread, with Arizona and Nevada flipped.
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, G650 said:

Yes, I agree there will always be some. More that I mean that both parties are explicitly advocating against it now. I don't really see a laissez faire party.

Um, not sure about that. Other than the tarrifs I don't see a lot of light between Trump's  debt-financed fiscal stimulus for people at the top plus regulatory capture by cronies and Reagan/Bush 2's version of the same thing. The biggest difference is that Trump doesn't pretend that the revenue generated by the growth will exceed the cost of the the debt we incur to get it. He doesn't care at all. It's just a tax cut for it's own sake. Then they force interest rates down to suck the cash into asset prices and pretend that's not inflation. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted
13 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

The people who majored in a liberal arts major and didn’t dual or tri major are wastoids.

 

13 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Embarrassed Hide GIF by flor

 

13 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Raise Hand GIF by Nick Jonas

 

13 hours ago, mchookem said:

 

tenor (27).gif

 

13 hours ago, Thatguy said:

girl-smile.gif

We should start a band.  Good thing for me the Navy didn't give a fuck as long as I had a BA at the end of four years.

I was also one who screwed up the FL requirement... big time.  I took French starting in 8th grade all through high school, and even spent a summer in France at a language school.  Thought I was hot shit.  Took the AP French exam and placed out of a ton of hours - don't recall exactly how many, but it ended up being 3 hours short of the LA FL requirement.  I ignored it until my last semester until I had no choice, meaning that I went 3-1/2 years without staying current with my French at all.  Because I had placed out of so many hours, I was forced to take a higher level class.  Being my last semester, I fucked off a lot and halfway through the semester found myself drowning in that French class.  I knew I blew the final, and as I turned it in pretty much begged the prof for a D so I could graduate the following week.  Prof said, "see you at commencement on Saturday."  

Now back to the topic of the thread... as big of an idiot and wastoid as I am, I was still able to sniff out Trump's bullshit back in 2011.   

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Posted
56 minutes ago, trythisathome said:

Had a Trump supporting coworker tell me that "if Trump gets elected, it's gonna be the easiest time in history to get rich because the market is gonna go crazy."

Well, one of the easiest ways to make money is buying stuff cheap after the market crashes.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Um, not sure about that. Other than the tarrifs I don't see a lot of light between Trump's  debt-financed fiscal stimulus for people at the top plus regulatory capture by cronies and Reagan's version of the same thing. The biggest difference is that Trump doesn't pretend that the revenue generated by the growth will exceed the cost of the the debt we incur to get it. He doesn't care at all. It's just a tax cut for it's own sake. Then they force interest rates down to suck the cash into asset prices and pretend that's not inflation. 

Uh, other than those trifling things like tariffs? I would characterize that as earthshaking change for the Republican party. Not even throwing details like pulling us out of, you know, like NAFTA and shit.

 

Look, I don't disagree with the result, but the messaging from Republicans is something so out there that 20 years ago if you told me exactly what was going to happen I would have laughed in your face.

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Posted
22 hours ago, Longhorn94 said:

I don't know who needs to hear this but Kamala is going to fuck shit up and we are going to win this fucking election! It won't be close.

LFG!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I'll have what this guy is having, unless its Chili's. 

 

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Guadaloopy said:

I was also one who screwed up the FL requirement... big time.  I took French starting in 8th grade all through high school, and even spent a summer in France at a language school.  Thought I was hot shit.  Took the AP French exam and placed out of a ton of hours - don't recall exactly how many, but it ended up being 3 hours short of the LA FL requirement.  I ignored it until my last semester until I had no choice, meaning that I went 3-1/2 years without staying current with my French at all.  Because I had placed out of so many hours, I was forced to take a higher level class.  Being my last semester, I fucked off a lot and halfway through the semester found myself drowning in that French class.  I knew I blew the final, and as I turned it in pretty much begged the prof for a D so I could graduate the following week.  Prof said, "see you at commencement on Saturday."  

This hits close to home, as my daughter just dropped French as her minor at UT, essentially wasting a whole bunch of accumulated hours and costing me even more money.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, G650 said:

Uh, other than those trifling things like tariffs? I would characterize that as earthshaking change for the Republican party. Not even throwing details like pulling us out of, you know, like NAFTA and shit.

 

Look, I don't disagree with the result, but the messaging from Republicans is something so out there that 20 years ago if you told me exactly what was going to happen I would have laughed in your face.

Fundamentally I see the tarriffs as another form of regulatory capture to favor well connected inbumbent interests. My point was that there was never any "there" there. The economic orthodoxy of that era was all just a kayfabe.  The tarriffs are just the mask coming all the way off.  Surprise, it's not wrestling it's "sports entertainment". 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted
2 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Well I have no idea who to vote for now without the WaPo telling me

Sure, but old guard media endorsements are kind of an important part of the process and an expectation of sorts.  Chickenshit move.  I will be canceling my subscription.  I don't read it much anyway these days.

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Posted
21 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Nate Silver almost certainly has a large bet on Kamala winning and has been using his model to move the line in betting markets toward Trump to get him a bigger payout.

 

This is exactly correct. These gambling sites can't risk all the money going one way, because then they could get fucked over really hard. They need the betting to be more or less even both ways, that way no matter who wins or loses, they get their vig. If all the money is going one way, then the hype needs to move to the other way to balance they betting. 

 

Posted
1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Sure, but old guard media endorsements are kind of an important part of the process and an expectation of sorts.  Chickenshit move.  I will be canceling my subscription.  I don't read it much anyway these days.

Bezos clearly afraid of Trump seeking retribution  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Bezos clearly afraid of Trump seeking retribution  

. . . AND I just discovered my annual sub auto-renewed last week.  Of course it did.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Fundamentally I see the tarriffs as another form of regulatory capture to favor well connected inbumbent interests.

We will have to disagree up to a point on that. It certainly will pick winners and losers, but there's been violent shift in terms of what interests are protected. Going from protecting corporate interests to protecting rich guy interest are very different things, because they have markedly different results (and problems obviously). I can assure you it isn't in John Deere's interest to be called out and have no political cover to offshore their workforce.

In general we are looking for the same policy outcomes, so it isn't like I'm really having a massive disagreement, but the messaging from both parties is clearly miles away from what it was. No one is running on free trade right now.

Posted
14 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Those German anti-secessionist genes are long gone.  It’s a bunch of transplants from elsewhere, most from Texas so they can create their own like MAGA fiefdom.

Even the legacy German families are all in on MAGA. My German/Texan ancestors voted against succession, hid Confederate “deserters” on our ranch, had some of those deserters ultimately hung on a tree on the ranch, maintained 100 years of dislike for our Lutheran neighbors because they suspected them of turning people in to the Confederacy, and voted for Republicans when Texas exited Reconstruction and many years afterward. At this point, they are almost exclusively Trump voters and it reflects the urban/rural divide in this country and way too many years of watching Fox News.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Helobious said:

What the hell does “firewall” mean in this context. I’ve seen it a lot

let me chatgpt that for you:

Quote

In political elections, a "firewall" refers to a region or group of voters a campaign relies on to secure enough votes to win, even if they lose ground elsewhere. For instance, a candidate might perform poorly in one set of states but has a "firewall" of reliably supportive states where they anticipate strong backing. If this firewall holds, it can compensate for losses in other areas and help maintain a viable path to victory.

Firewalls are especially relevant in close elections, where campaigns concentrate resources and effort to solidify support and prevent opponents from making inroads in key areas.

 

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Posted
3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Daily Georgia EV data dump takeaways:

1.  2.369 million votes now cast

2. Women out pace men by 272k or 55.5% to 44%  (.4% growth from yesterday)

3.  2020 day of voters represent 149k or 6.3% of the total (.3% bump from yesterday)

4.  2020 non voters are 387k, young voters 18 - 29 outpace old ones 65+ by 35k

A little something different today, turn out by Democratic Congressional districts:

GA 2- 138k 25.6%

GA 4 - 138k 26.5%

GA 5 - 162k 26.1%

GA 6 - 182k 36.8%

GA 13 - 167k 27.3%

 

 

Thank you for the data.

Please tell me how you're interpreting it based on expectations and benchmarks.

Posted
2 minutes ago, G650 said:

Going from protecting corporate interests to protecting rich guy interest are very different things

But see, you're begging the question. I don't acccept the premise that they were in fact protecting corporate interests. I think there were and are specific interests associated with specific people that benefitted, and I'm sure to some people that looks like being pro-business or pro-capitalism, but it's not. 
The greatest danger to capitalism is not socialism, but rent-seeking. The greatest danger to American business is not overregulation but regulatory capture. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Daily Georgia EV data dump takeaways:

1.  2.369 million votes now cast

2. Women out pace men by 272k or 55.5% to 44%  (.4% growth from yesterday)

3.  2020 day of voters represent 149k or 6.3% of the total (.3% bump from yesterday)

4.  2020 non voters are 387k, young voters 18 - 29 outpace old ones 65+ by 35k

A little something different today, turn out by Democratic Congressional districts:

GA 2- 138k 25.6%

GA 4 - 138k 26.5%

GA 5 - 162k 26.1%

GA 6 - 182k 36.8%

GA 13 - 167k 27.3%

 

 

what's normal turnout for those districts (for a pres election year)

Posted
2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I don't acccept the premise that they were in fact protecting corporate interests. I think there were and are specific interests associated with specific people that benefitted, and I'm sure to some people that looks like being pro-business or pro-capitalism, but it's not. 

Well, this right here. I don't think these two sentences necessarily go together. Corporate interests do not equal pro business and pro capitalism. In fact, many times they are opposed.

There's been a huge shift in who's interests are being protect here. You obviously disagree and that is fine, but to me it's clear as day. You seem to be more focused on the outcome vis a vis other classes, but that's not what I'm talking about.

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Posted
2 hours ago, David Dennison said:

I really hope the outcome of this election ends the marriage between polling and the mainstream media.

But I know better.

Someone with a national platform who understands just a little math (Mark Cuban?) is going to have to embarrass the NYT by asking how they can extrapolate from a biased 2.5% response rate to a voting population.

Posted
2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

what's normal turnout for those districts (for a pres election year)

Districts got redrawn after 2020 so might be harder to figure that out 

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Posted
13 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Ha, thanks.  I have no urge to hit you.  But same.  Except I don't drink.  Topo or club soda with lime.

California sober?  (Sorry, the wife and I just binged Nobody Wants This and that term tickled me).

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Newspapers need to die. Worthless spineless hacks beholden to revenue and shareholder value rather than journalism. 

Dying industries do irrational things to hold on as long as possible.  They’re usually too late to pivot to whatever is replacing them to gain market share, so they suppress it as long as possible.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Newspapers need to die. Worthless spineless hacks beholden to revenue and shareholder value rather than journalism. 

That makes sense, but they're getting replaced with YouTube videos and TikTok's which are even worse.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Full House 90S Tv GIF

 

stephen miller is ready to deport as many naturalized muslim citizens as he can chase down 

all the imans for sure 

Edited by tx 3 putt
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Posted
2 hours ago, texastough said:

The clip was posted earlier -- When Hannity started spewing the bullshit about Trump's knowledge and hours long in-depth conversations with him about complex topics, Smith should have jumped in with "About WHAT? About ELECTROCUTION SHARKS? About CANCER WINDMILLS? About MEN'S JUNK????

Actually, the face he made was perfect.

Posted
52 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Texas might shift, or be close to it, if Harris county turned out like the other big counties do. They’ll just never be at Travis County margins. 56% for the Dems in 2020 - now imagine if they got 65% like Dallas county

Travis County represent.  And damn I love the Hill Country but damn I hate the Hill Country.

image.png.9e554c1a0d59781a99984c79c5f98973.png

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