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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Trump won Kansas in 2020 by almost 15 points. I wonder a) why he'd use the word weird to describe what they're seeing and b) why that pollster doesn't put out more fucking polls. 

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Posted (edited)
Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Trump won Kansas in 2020 by almost 15 points. I wonder a) why he'd use the word weird to describe what they're seeing and b) why that pollster doesn't put out more fucking polls. 

Your first sentence answers your last. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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Posted
5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Trump won Kansas in 2020 by almost 15 points. I wonder a) why he'd use the word weird to describe what they're seeing and b) why that pollster doesn't put out more fucking polls. 

Well if you put out too many polls, you can't tell everyone you're batting 1.000

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Posted
Just now, kevwun said:

It's starting to smell like Kamala's going to drop an asswhipping on Trump on election night.

I dont know about that. But I can tell you 45% of this country is going to be completely fucking shocked and at a complete loss thanks to the fucking media and polling companies. 

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Posted
Just now, kevwun said:

It will be more than that.  I have Dem friends who think Kamala is going to lose.

For a long time now we've had one side saying "We're the underdog" while the other side is saying "We're gonna win in a landslide". Add in the fucked up polling and betting markets and voila. 

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Posted

American Greatness (oh these fuckers are back) still can only find PA a 47-47 tie.  Partisan R pollsters can't even buy Trump a lead

Insider Advantage, another partisan R pollster, can only cook up a 1 point lead for Trump in Michigan.

More flooding the zone!

Now, for real polls:

University of Arizona for AZ:

Harris 46, Trump 45

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

What is he implying ?

Trump is only up 5 this time in a state he won by 14 in 2020. He has an enthusiasm gap this go round even in a conservative state like Kansas. He must be losing some Republican voters to be -9. 

Edited by mdmost
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Posted
Just now, mdmost said:

Trump is only up 5 this time in a state he won by 14 in 2020. He has an enthusiasm gap this go round even in a conservative state like Kansas. He must be losing some Republican votes to be -9. 

I’m almost there. 

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Clintonaldo said:

I’m almost there. 

If he's down almost 10 in Kansas, he could be down a lot in places he barely won or barely lost last time. Or shit is crazy and who the f knows. 

Edited by mdmost
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Posted
8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That isn't a shot at Dotard. It's a shot at his voters, really. 

And the media who just shrug their shoulders.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, kevwun said:

It will be more than that.  I have Dem friends who think Kamala is going to lose.

so did this board like 6 hours ago...and then 28 hours before that....and 49 hours before that . . . and so on.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

That’s a wild place to go in this thread, however.  I wonder if Udo Kier ever met Donald Trump. Probably, right?

I wondered if you'd actually caught the post before I struck it. I can't imagine they didn't cross paths. It was great to see Udo in Ace Ventura. That was such a wild time for movies (seventies).

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Posted (edited)
Just now, Foosters said:

so did this board like 6 hours ago...and then 28 hours before that....and 49 hours before that . . . and so on.

Not me, JS convinced me several weeks ago that Kamala was going to win.

Edited by kevwun
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Posted
4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it would also be treating one poll out of 10,000 as the god poll

Yeah, probably an outlier.  If Kansas shifted 10 points left, you're getting into 400+ electoral vote territory - Florida, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Iowa, ME-02 are all flipping. 

But hey, the first rule of good polling - publish, don't hide, outliers.  It increases your credibility that you stand by your methods enough to publish Trump +5 in Kansas. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, probably an outlier.  If Kansas shifted 10 points left, you're getting into 400+ electoral vote territory - Florida, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Iowa, ME-02 are all flipping. 

But hey, the first rule of good polling - publish, don't hide, outliers.  It increases your credibility that you stand by your methods enough to publish Trump +5 in Kansas. 

Even shifting that 5 to the right, it would still signal deep deep trouble for Trump. 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

What’s weird about the dotard winning Kansas?

Nothing.  What would be weird is if his margin of victory were to drop from +15 (2020) to +5 (2024).

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Posted
22 minutes ago, kevwun said:

It will be more than that.  I have Dem friends who think Kamala is going to lose.

 

14 minutes ago, Foosters said:

so did this board like 6 hours ago...and then 28 hours before that....and 49 hours before that . . . and so on.

Such is the curse of not being stupid: you don't get to have their irrational, unwavering overconfidence about damn near everything.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, kevwun said:

It would have been nice if he could have also insulted Cubans. 

They'll never waver.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Kansas was called in 2020 by 10 pm Eastern. 

My favorite part of election day is the minute west coast polls close and CA, OR, WA are called for the D candidate immediately.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I'll say this, if Trump ends up winning, this thread is gonna be lit.

The invasion of dozens of posters who all of the sudden want to post in the cloak room again is going to be really, really depressing.

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