2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[aggie08 21854]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You know what pisses me off?  That we got rid of all of those inflatable tanks.  As a kid, would I have fucking LOVED to have a US Army surplus inflatable Sherman tank decoy in my backyard?  You're goddamned right, it would have been my most treasured possession.

How...how old are you?

[Bullneck 19611]

7 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

With Trump promising to end income tax on tips as a campaign gimmick, Biden should call Trump’s bluff.  Publicly proclaim it a great idea and ask Mike Johnson place it for a vote immediately.

see all the conservative head’s explode with a tax break only for the lower (mostly) income folks.

Why would Trump not want to give tax breaks immediately for the masses by waiting until 2025? 

I got just the guy for that:

 

[Brisketexan 107063]

2 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

How...how old are you?

Older than I want to be.  It would have been 30+ years old in my prime kid years, but shit, in that same era they were selling off a shitload of WWII era surplus Willys jeeps.  Woulda liked one of those, too (we bought a used Korean-era one when I was in high school and fixed it up as a "drive around the ranch drink beer and shoot guns" vehicle.  It was awesome...but a true army surplus jeep woulda been cooler).

[Dahobbs 18437]

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You know what pisses me off?  That we got rid of all of those inflatable tanks.  As a kid, would I have fucking LOVED to have a US Army surplus inflatable Sherman tank decoy in my backyard?  You're goddamned right, it would have been my most treasured possession.

Only as a kid? Are you sure? 

[YGIFS 19460]

As much as I hate Jim Jordan, he wasn't laughing at Moskowitz. You could tell by his chuckle and body language, it was a sort of self depracating laughter at himself at the Comer.  Like "Oh shit, he's right...this is all fucking ridiculous."  I almost respect him for having the self-awareness to laugh like that, "Oh lord, seriously...what the fuck are we doing here?"  Most of the people up there have no self-awareness, but for 60 seconds, Jim Jordan was an almost a real human being.  Then he reverted and yielded back the balance of humanity.  

[Biff Tannen 46250]

4 hours ago, Red Five said:

I have no idea where to put this, but those who listen to the POD shows, absolutely listen to the most recent one. Lovett just came back from filming some reality show for a few weeks. They break all the news to him that happened during that time, and it's incredible. 

His reaction to Alito and the flag incidents was the best.  And it shows how fucking insane it is.  Lovett deals with the GQP maga nonsense every day for his job.  And even he couldn't believe that happened.

[Brisketexan 107063]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Only as a kid? Are you sure? 

Fair.

[tx 3 putt 78843]

 

[SizzleChest 8314]

4 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

538 isn’t silver any more. 

[Biff Tannen 46250]

15 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Please keep saying this

[BamaATL 16593]

52 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Please keep saying this

This is crazy but believe me it won't matter much to many Republican voters.  Many I know, that are completely dependent on Social Security, are of the same delusional ilk that they think he isn't talking about them or their benefits.  That's how fucking stupid this all is (and how stupid they are), in many cases, we are actually fighting to save these people from themselves.  I have to admit, that often times it makes me just want to throw my hands up and say fuck it.  

In a lot of cases, it's not fuck around and find out, it's fuck around and starve to death.  But it doesn't matter because they think he is talking about dems/minorities/gays/etc whose benefits it will apply to, not their own.  

[Zonahorn 8079]

No, the Republican Party is fine 

[Js1 87333]

50 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

No, the Republican Party is fine 

Trump +29 district that is going to end up being just a shade over R+10 tonight. That’s a big shift 

[Pancho 46434]

Yup

 

[SaucyJack 3522]

more data

 

https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio's_6th_Congressional_District

[immamac 44430]

10 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Yup

 

Seems good. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19490]

Maybe this Rulli guy isn't a big enough asshole to get them rubes fired up.  Dotard won't have that problem.

[ChiTownDoc 21363]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

This is crazy but believe me it won't matter much to many Republican voters.  Many I know, that are completely dependent on Social Security, are of the same delusional ilk that they think he isn't talking about them or their benefits.  That's how fucking stupid this all is (and how stupid they are), in many cases, we are actually fighting to save these people from themselves.  I have to admit, that often times it makes me just want to throw my hands up and say fuck it.  

In a lot of cases, it's not fuck around and find out, it's fuck around and starve to death.  But it doesn't matter because they think he is talking about dems/minorities/gays/etc whose benefits it will apply to, not their own.  

Perfect storm brewing.  The olds and dumbs are locked and loaded for R/Trump no matter what the fuck even Trump himself tells them.  Then the ‘I vote for what’s best for my family’ crowd is numb to more and more Trump is the new Hitler proof.  Combine that with Biden being a pretty shitty candidate and I’m actually believing Trump has a good chance, not just a chance.  I know, FML.  

[Biff Tannen 46250]

1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

No, the Republican Party is fine 

 

53 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Trump +29 district that is going to end up being just a shade over R+10 tonight. That’s a big shift 

 

40 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Yup

 

Excuse me. I’ve been told by all the polls that it is neck and neck or Trump is dominating. 

[BamaATL 16593]

5 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Perfect storm brewing.  The olds and dumbs are locked and loaded for R/Trump no matter what the fuck even Trump himself tells them.  Then the ‘I vote for what’s best for my family’ crowd is numb to more and more Trump is the new Hitler proof.  Combine that with Biden being a pretty shitty candidate and I’m actually believing Trump has a good chance, not just a chance.  I know, FML.  

Head high, we will win, but these people are such a fucking beating.  

[Anastasis 23722]

11 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

Those guys post here as @Anastasis

Y'all just need to vote harder. And most importantly, never question the long term viability and functionality of the two party system and the war machine.  

[atomheartbevo 90702]

Ryan going to piss off Trump again.  I’m sure he’ll get a shout-out on Truth Social

 

[Bullneck 19611]

17 hours ago, BamaATL said:

This is crazy but believe me it won't matter much to many Republican voters.  Many I know, that are completely dependent on Social Security, are of the same delusional ilk that they think he isn't talking about them or their benefits.  That's how fucking stupid this all is (and how stupid they are), in many cases, we are actually fighting to save these people from themselves.  I have to admit, that often times it makes me just want to throw my hands up and say fuck it.  

In a lot of cases, it's not fuck around and find out, it's fuck around and starve to death.  But it doesn't matter because they think he is talking about dems/minorities/gays/etc whose benefits it will apply to, not their own.  

That's about where I'm at.  I'm in the Republican target demographic and over the short term I'd be fine as we turn into apartheid nation.

Hopefully we'll see record turnout of normal, sane people of all stripes in November.

Edited June 12 by Bullneck

[Js1 87333]

9 hours ago, Js1 said:

Trump +29 district that is going to end up being just a shade over R+10 tonight. That’s a big shift 

Yeah it was a shade under 10. 20 point swing left to a guy outspent a fraction of the GOP. In a very red district that is not well educated, before anyone gives the “Dems do well with high propensity educated voters so this doesn’t count”

Edited June 12 by Js1

[Homercles 10206]

14 hours ago, C-Man said:

Don't care if this is real or not: 

 

[hornmpa96 2672]

Why are we talking about margins in a special election?

There were 279,000 total votes in Ohio’s 6th District in 2022.

In the Special last night, there were 60,000 total votes.

The Ds should always perform better in low-turnout votes as educated voters turnout. There may be a slight D shift in that District but it will R +20 in the general.

[Fudge Nuggets 19490]

shit

Edited June 12 by Fudge Nuggets

[Fudge Nuggets 19490]

7 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Why are we talking about margins in a special election?

There were 279,000 total votes in Ohio’s 6th District in 2022.

In the Special last night, there were 60,000 total votes.

The Ds should always perform better in low-turnout votes as educated voters turnout. There may be a slight D shift in that District but it will R +20 in the general.

Full agreement, my dude.  The data source I have showed OH06 had a total of 344K in 2020 so yesterday's turnout comparison was an even lower percentage.

[Shut up Lou Holtz 2122]

1 hour ago, Homercles said:

That thread on shaggy was fucking gold. 

[SubliminalHorn 7012]

9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Y'all just need to vote harder. And most importantly, never question the long term viability and functionality of the two party system and the war machine.  

Yes, everyone here is fully onboard with the two party system we have and none of us want reforms 

[Js1 87333]

15 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Why are we talking about margins in a special election?

Special elections have historically been pretty decent predictors for the general election. 

if you want to ignore the data, do it.  But a 20 point shift left in a district by a guy who spent less than 50k against a state Senator in a Trump +29 district that ended up being R+8/9 in the end? 

[hornmpa96 2672]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Special elections have historically been pretty decent predictors for the general election. 

if you want to ignore the data, do it.  But a 20 point shift left in a district by a guy who spent less than 50k against a state Senator in a Trump +29 district that ended up being R+8/9 in the end? 

Plus rep for the Sgt Schulz gif

I just don’t see that election as a very interesting data point. 

[Goredho 17663]

10 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

 

 

Excuse me. I’ve been told by all the polls that it is neck and neck or Trump is dominating. 

Scared and angry people are easily driven to read, click, share, donate and vote.

The exploitation of which would normally piss me right off.  But in this case, be terrified and vote like your kids' lives depend on it, because they just might.

[Chuckie Finster 23113]

30 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Why are we talking about margins in a special election?

There were 279,000 total votes in Ohio’s 6th District in 2022.

In the Special last night, there were 60,000 total votes.

The Ds should always perform better in low-turnout votes as educated voters turnout. There may be a slight D shift in that District but it will R +20 in the general.

This argument makes sense for some districts, but this is one of the least educated districts (literally bottom 5%) in the entire country.  It's basically West Virginia with an Ohio zip code.

[immamac 44430]

46 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Why are we talking about margins in a special election?

There were 279,000 total votes in Ohio’s 6th District in 2022.

In the Special last night, there were 60,000 total votes.

The Ds should always perform better in low-turnout votes as educated voters turnout. There may be a slight D shift in that District but it will R +20 in the general.

Ds in fact do not perform better in low turnout votes. 

Educated voters don't turnout higher than non educated voters if you are saying college educated. 

If you are pulling shit out of your ass and mistakenly calling engaged voters educated voters then you are still wrong, engaged voters do not have a strong bias R or D. 

[BamaATL 16593]

5 minutes ago, immamac said:

Ds in fact do not perform better in low turnout votes. 

Educated voters don't turnout higher than non educated voters if you are saying college educated. 

If you are pulling shit out of your ass and mistakenly calling engaged voters educated voters then you are still wrong, engaged voters do not have a strong bias R or D. 

This is just straight from personal observation, no data research at all, in my area it seems that special elections turn out the olds at a disproportionate level.  Basically, they pretty much all show up as per just about every election, the other voters don't.  Now that isn't to say that this applies across every district in the country, nor does it imply that every election isn't unique; however I do find that to be more plausible.  

If that does in fact appear to be the case, last night was pretty damning for Republicans.  Let's hope so. 

[Js1 87333]

22 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This argument makes sense for some districts, but this is one of the least educated districts (literally bottom 5%) in the entire country.  It's basically West Virginia with an Ohio zip code.

And the biggest shifts left came in the reddest counties -   Not the toss-up county (Mahoning was Clinton +3.3 and Trump +1.9) that ended up 50/50.  

86% white, median household income is $21k, 57% rural, like 13-15% of eligible voters have a bachelor's degree

Pretty sure OH-06 was Trump's best in 2020 - 72% of the vote.  It was a 67/32 win for the GOP rep in 2022. 

[StassneyHorn 6791]

This part of Ohio/WV panhandle considers it a success in life to finish high school and get a nice job at Homer Laughlin or Fiestaware.

[immamac 44430]

35 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

This is just straight from personal observation, no data research at all, in my area it seems that special elections turn out the olds at a disproportionate level.  Basically, they pretty much all show up as per just about every election, the other voters don't.  Now that isn't to say that this applies across every district in the country, nor does it imply that every election isn't unique; however I do find that to be more plausible.  

If that does in fact appear to be the case, last night was pretty damning for Republicans.  Let's hope so. 

I can get on board with that. I think the most engaged voters turn out for these and those have strong overlaps with certain demographics like "the olds" 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

  It's basically West Virginia with an Ohio zip code.

so ohio.

[Pato del Muerto 53628]

34 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

This part of Ohio/WV panhandle considers it a success in life to finish high school and get a nice job at Homer Laughlin or Fiestaware.

That’s what is dragging the median household income all the way up to 21k?

of course that statistic doesn’t do a great job of capturing income generated from manufacture and sale of such things as moonshine and opiates. 

Edited June 12 by Pato del Muerto

[hornmpa96 2672]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

Ds in fact do not perform better in low turnout votes. 

Educated voters don't turnout higher than non educated voters if you are saying college educated. 

If you are pulling shit out of your ass and mistakenly calling engaged voters educated voters then you are still wrong, engaged voters do not have a strong bias R or D. 

I know the Nates have a bad reputation here (probably for good reason).

From Nate Cohn’s 2/2/24 article in The NY Times 

- College graduates make up an outsized portion of Special Election voters about 10% higher than general election voters

- Confirming the point above about the olds, 50% of the voters in specials are 65+

- 92% of special election voters also vote in primary’s 

Also Trump has been driving college-educated voters from the R party. Just look at the change in this board’s profile over the last 10 years.

[StassneyHorn 6791]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s what is dragging the median household income all the way up to 21k?

of course that statistic doesn’t do a great job of capturing income generated from manufacture and sale of such things as moonshine and opiates. 

Former pottery capitol of the world. Now it’s meth and regret.

[Js1 87333]

Some more notes:

Quote

That represented a 19-point improvement for Kripchak, an Air Force veteran who, according to the Canton Repository, took a leave of absence from his job at a restaurant to focus on his campaign.

Rulli, by contrast, had every advantage heading into the race. After flipping a Democratic-held Senate seat in 2018, he won a second term in a landslide in 2022. He also swamped his opponent in fundraising, taking in almost $700,000 through May 22 while Kripchak brought in just over $20,000—a pittance for a congressional race.

And while most of Rulli's spending came before a contested GOP primary in mid-March, he still deployed more than $100,000 during what was supposed to be an uncompetitive affair.

The two candidates will face off once again this fall for a full term, but of more immediate concern for Republicans is that—as they did in 2018 and again in 2022 after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade—they are consistently underperforming in special elections.

Compared to the presidential toplines, Kripchak turned in the best showing by a Democrat in a special election for Congress this cycle, of which there have been six so far. He also outran Joe Biden's numbers by double-digits in every county in the district—including by 46 points in Tuscarawas—except for one (Mahoning, which is Rulli's home base and also where his family owns a pair of eponymous grocery stores; Kripchak still managed to win it).

More broadly, Democrats are now outperforming Biden by an average of 3.8 points across 58 special elections, both congressional and legislative, since the midterms—and Biden himself won the national popular vote by 4.5 points four years ago.

As Daily Kos Elections contributing editor Daniel Donner has demonstrated, special election results, taken in aggregate, correlate closely with general election results for the U.S. House. That suggests a favorable political environment for Democrats that speaks well of their chances to take back the lower chamber, even though an average of generic congressional ballot polls compiled by 538 shows the parties tied.

Notably, southeastern Ohio is not the sort of place you'd expect a Democratic surge. While those with college degrees, as the New York Times' Nate Cohn noted, "make up an outsize share of special electorates," Ohio's 6th District has one of the lowest rates of educational attainment in the nation. Just 20% of residents are college graduates, putting it in the bottom 5% of districts nationwide.

It's also heavily rural and almost 90% white—the very sort of turf that has been trending sharply against Democrats, who last won the seat since 2008 and, until Tuesday, hadn't cleared 40% in a single House race since 2012.

Polling may currently paint a different picture for Democrats, but the same was in many cases true in 2022, even after a series of strong Democratic performances in special elections following the Dobbs decision called into question whether a much-prophesied red wave was gathering strength. That wave, of course, failed to materialize, and special elections are once again counseling against relying too much on the polls.

 

[gmr548 16704]

21 hours ago, 'stache said:

After 2016 this guy’s evaluations are completely meaningless to me.

Silver & co. were pretty consistent in 2016 in saying a 70-whatever percent chance of a Clinton victory in their model is not at all a sure thing and a Trump win was very plausible. They were basically the only outlet that wasn't treating the election as a foregone conclusion and the only modelers that didn't have Clinton at like 95%.

Texas was favored against OU and UW and was an underdog against Alabama. Play those games again in the same settings and the same teams would be favored (though it would be more like Alabama -2 or -3 than -7 or whatever it was). Clinton was favored for a reason but underdogs win sometimes.

2 hours ago, immamac said:

Ds in fact do not perform better in low turnout votes. 

Educated voters don't turnout higher than non educated voters if you are saying college educated. 

If you are pulling shit out of your ass and mistakenly calling engaged voters educated voters then you are still wrong, engaged voters do not have a strong bias R or D. 

As usual, wrong. Democrats have absolutely been overperforming in low turnout elections since the start of the Trump era, because college educated voters do make up a greater portion of the electorate in midterms and especially special elections, and those voters have shifted notably toward Democrats. This is well documented.

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

This is just straight from personal observation, no data research at all, in my area it seems that special elections turn out the olds at a disproportionate level.  Basically, they pretty much all show up as per just about every election, the other voters don't.  Now that isn't to say that this applies across every district in the country, nor does it imply that every election isn't unique; however I do find that to be more plausible.  

If that does in fact appear to be the case, last night was pretty damning for Republicans.  Let's hope so. 

Olds do vote at higher rates. Disparities still exist along the typical lines - education, race, etc. - but controlling for all that, olds do still vote at higher rates. Always have.

[gmr548 16704]

2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This argument makes sense for some districts, but this is one of the least educated districts (literally bottom 5%) in the entire country.  It's basically West Virginia with an Ohio zip code.

That still makes sense though, because the trend of educated voters making up a higher proportion of the electorate in specials isn't because all of the same people that show up for a general election show up- there are fewer voters with college degrees too - it's because everyone else's participation falls off an even bigger cliff. That's how you get a very small piece of the general electorate in a district like this exercising hugely disproportionate influence in a special. 

Will be interesting to see the voter demographics if anyone is reliably tracking them.

Edited June 12 by gmr548

[wildcat09 29609]

Silver shouldn't be hated for 2016, as gmr notes he was one of the more realistic pollsters in that election (tons of highly respected pollsters were saying Hillary had a ~99% chance).  Silver should be hated for turning into a dipshit contrarian expert-on-all-things pundit who cooked his brain in 2020 on all sorts of antivax and related conspiracy theories. 

[Js1 87333]

Just now, wildcat09 said:

Silver shouldn't be hated for 2016, as gmr notes he was one of the more realistic pollsters in that election (tons of highly respected pollsters were saying Hillary had a ~99% chance).  Silver should be hated for turning into a dipshit contrarian expert-on-all-things pundit who cooked his brain in 2020 on all sorts of antivax and related conspiracy theories. 

[Pancho 46434]

R’s continued talking point—Dems are really trying to position Michelle Obama to run

 

[Js1 87333]