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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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locodos

locodos 5591

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Just now, Js1 said:

Also any post-election lawsuits have to be quickly ruled on - that is also spelled out in the Electoral Count Reform Act.  It's not going to be 2 months of lawsuits (or 2 years, if you're Kari Lake).  

This seems like a job for super judge, Aileen Cannon!

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Js1

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1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not following.  What states that went for Harris are going to fail to certify by Dec 11?  If Trumpy states want to drag their feet, fine.  FAFO.

There's a disconnect whether fewer certified states = lower threshold to win or if it is 270 regardless.

From the Electoral Count Reform Act:

Under the Electoral Count Reform Act, if the number of electoral votes cast decreases (e.g., because Congress votes to sustain an objection and not count a slate of electors, as described below), the number of votes needed to win also decreases.

For example, if Congress discards 10 electoral votes, the total number of votes cast drops to 528, and the number of votes needed to win drops to 265. This reduces the incentive for supporters of a losing candidate to try to throw out electoral votes so that Congress can select the president. 

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Tuco

Tuco 5094

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1 minute ago, BrickHorn said:

I encourage you all to read the article before asking questions that are clearly answered in the article.

In this case, it is likely that the GOP will still maintain the majority of state delegations in the House, which is what matters.

Actually the article says it wouldn't get to that point.  The scheme would be to remove blue electors (by delaying until they are past the deadline) until red electors are the majority of the remainder.

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aggie08

aggie08 21827

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15 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I think for the GOP to fully turn on Trump they’ll have to see a path to winning elections without him, and I just don’t see how that happens.  There’s not a meaningful part of the Democrat base the GOP could take without diminishing their existing base; essentially, getting married to the racists won them the 2016 presidency but it put them in a tough spot once that fully played out.  If (huge if) Harris cruises to 320+ EV, I don’t see any way the GOP wins the presidency before 2036 unless the Democrats fuck up big time.

I'm thinking that, after a massive Kamala victory, they can convince themselves that all it will take is a significant economic turndown between now and 2026 to dominate the midterms, tying the administration in a policy stalemate, and putting 2028 in play, because they won't have to worry about the anti-Trump vote. So better to pivot from MAGA now.

None of that is going to happen, of course.

 

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Js1

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Just now, Tuco said:

Actually the article says it wouldn't get to that point.  The scheme would be to remove blue electors (by delaying until they are past the deadline) until red electors are the majority of the remainder.

I really encourage many people to just read or become familiar with the ECRA before just spouting off conspiracy.  BlueAnon bullshit is getting on my nerves right now. 

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Pancho

Pancho 46331

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13 minutes ago, Burt said:

Also, how the fuck do you people keep up with this thread?  Do you not have jobs?  (rhetorical question...you're libtards, so, of course you dont)

 

You should just stick to field goals and extra points

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30726

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1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Did she even last a full Scaramucci?

I no longer have the game board cover, so I’m not sure if her bragging about giving BJ’s to Trump adds or subtracts minutes of Trump administration time

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8938

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Here is my pipedream. News outlets know that Dotard isn't winning. Fox and others are reporting it's close because they are mouthpieces. CNN and others understand the devastation that will occur if Dotard gets elected so they are saying it's close to ensure voters for Kamala don't stay home. This election isn't close. 

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30726

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2 minutes ago, locodos said:

ahhhh Florida

Machete-wielding teen arrested after group accused of intimidating Democratic supporters at Florida polling station, police say

r/news - Machete-wielding teen arrested after group accused of intimidating Democratic supporters at Florida polling station, police say

This guy has a future as a punchable face model

He’s about to find out why his Aryan Brotherhood nickname is “brown star”.

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 34106

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3 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Jimmy aimed is monologue at Republicans last night in a last ditch effort to point out Trump’s bullshit. 

 

hard to keep up with things in this thread. this is great, but it's just a drop in the bucket. this will sway like 3 people. it's a nice effort and Jimmy is sufficiently cataloged as being on the right side of history, but it's wasted effort imho

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Liteitup

Liteitup 144

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17 minutes ago, Burt said:

Also, how the fuck do you people keep up with this thread?  Do you not have jobs?  (rhetorical question...you're libtards, so, of course you dont)

I routinely skip numerous pages to catch up. Important stuff gets repeated. So does unimportant stuff.

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Js1

Js1 87189

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1 minute ago, Pancho said:

So, that Wisconsin poll by Marquette that has Harris +1 is a R+5 sample?

 

Will Smith Reaction GIF

 

2020 was R+5 (37-32-31) and Biden won

Though 2022 was R+3 (36-33-31) and Ron Johnson won

What I'm saying when it comes to Wisconsin....

If Dane and Milwaukee turn out, the Dems will win. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106920

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29 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

If this happens, the guns come out.  

If that happens, they have to.

If the GQP simply opts out of the rule of law, and voids an election, then yeah....there's no other option.  They continue to choose paths that put us on the road to ruin, so damn right they'll choose that stupid one, too.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15599

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I wanted to make a serious post to convey my deep thanks for people getting out to vote against Trump and for Harris. For me and my wife, and many other posters in this thread, the election is about far more than just political theater. It’s about serious impacts to people’s lives. 

For us, cancer and other health issues hit our family and led to me retiring early. While we are fine financially and are currently on my wife’s healthcare, she will have to also drop work soon due to health reasons. As many of you know, until Obamacare came along, there were few to no high quality, affordable healthcare options for people under Medicare age that didn’t also come with some major affordability and eligibility issues for people with pre-existing conditions (which is everyone!). I could provide a lot more detail of the problems.

They aren’t just “poor people” issues! How would you feel not being able to see doctors and surgeons who could save your life because the insurance coverage is so limited? That is a probable future we could face with a hacked together Republican healthcare plan.  

The Republicans came out today and stated that repeal of Obamacare would be one of the first items on their agenda. With no backup plan, especially for people with pre-existing conditions, many Americans face the impossibility of having no or terrible healthcare, despite having a lot of money to afford it. It’s a frightening prospect, as is their treatment of women, immigrants, trans and many other groups that also face tough consequences if these idiots win. Anyway, I really appreciate the people that have figured out what’s really going on and have taken action. Thank you. 

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18447

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27 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Actually the article says it wouldn't get to that point.  The scheme would be to remove blue electors (by delaying until they are past the deadline) until red electors are the majority of the remainder.

You’re right. I misunderstood.

But I believe the point is that if Congress does not certify, then it goes to a state-by-state vote in the House. So an overall Dem House majority can only save us at one step; the next one is the bigger problem.  

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

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Another csb , Just got a reply from the GoP precinct chair who texted me earlier this week propagating election integrity lies.  I had replied to him that baselessly undermining people’s faith in elections is traitorous and told him to fuck off.

His reply: “Thank you for your reply.
I just got off the phone with a lady who voted at Riverbend on 360 last Saturday. Her choices continually flipped to another candidate as she was voting. She reported to the clerk that she was having issues with Machine #4 - the clerk told her that Machine #3 was doing the same thing. In my humble opinion, ANY mechanical device can have a glitch. It is only fair to the voter that they check their summary to be certain that their choices are voted. I hope you have a wonderful day.”

I know this story is bullshit.  Clerks are required by law to immediately stop the use of any machine suspected of malfunctioning.  No clerk would openly talk about a machine malfunctioning, especially to a voter while helping them vote on another machine suspected of malfunctioning.  I replied to him with that and told him to fuck off again.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7830

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2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Since we're discussing SCOTUS, may want to start looking at EV math without CO. GOP will absolutely attempt to have the results invalidated over this and with this court you can't assume they will act in good faith.

Nah.  The passwords that were leaked only work if you're physically standing in front of the machines (since they are air gapped) and they are locked in secure storage.  They will all need to have their passwords changed, obviously, but that's as far as this goes.

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Tuco

Tuco 5094

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21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I really encourage many people to just read or become familiar with the ECRA before just spouting off conspiracy.  BlueAnon bullshit is getting on my nerves right now. 

I agree it's bullshit.  But, if it's contingent on the SC being on board and allowing the clock to run, I think it is reasonable they would also say they are not constrained by ERCA.  The latter is more likely than the former.  But it's all nonsense.  In that scenario, you may as well just speculate they would agree with the MAGA plaintiffs on the hypothetical lawsuits and declare Trump the winner of that particular state. That would provide Trump with much better coverage for taking power than relying on loopholes. Why complicate it.

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Tuco

Tuco 5094

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7 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Hey buzz, everything you’ve accomplished is immediately null and void. Eff off hoser. 

He's 94 years old.  Does anyone think he pulled out his I-phone and typed that? 

Edit to add from Wiki: 

 

Quote

n 2018, Aldrin was involved in a legal dispute with his children Andrew and Janice and former business manager Christina Korp over their claims that he was mentally impaired through dementia and Alzheimer's disease. His children alleged that he made new friends who were alienating him from the family and encouraging him to spend his savings at a high rate. They sought to be named legal guardians so they could control his finances.[186] In June, Aldrin filed a lawsuit against Andrew, Janice, Korp, and businesses and foundations run by the family.[187] Aldrin alleged that Janice was not acting in his financial interest and that Korp was exploiting the elderly. He sought to remove Andrew's control of Aldrin's social media accounts, finances, and businesses. The situation ended when his children withdrew their petition and he dropped the lawsuit in March 2019, several months before the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 mission.[188]

On January 20, 2023, his 93rd birthday, Aldrin announced on Twitter that he had married for the fourth time, to his 63-year-old companion, Anca Faur.[189][175]

 

Edited by Tuco
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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26898

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44 minutes ago, Burt said:

Also, how the fuck do you people keep up with this thread?  Do you not have jobs?  (rhetorical question...you're libtards, so, of course you dont)

I'm an old-fashioned Democrat. Other than leisurely rides around the property to let the sharecroppers know that I care about them, this old place pretty much runs itself.

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C-Man

C-Man 27784

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11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I don't think he has the power to do that.

Also as a reminder - the electors can only be submitted to Congress by the certifying authority in the state (Gov or SOS).  Dems have control of those offices in AZ, NV (SOS), WI (Gov), MI, NC (Gov), PA and GA Gov/SOS have defied Trump many times over election results.

Congress cannot accept any alternate slate of electors.  Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022.

And Mystal addresses that too immediately preceding the passage I quoted:

Quote

This reading is untested. Nobody has yet tried to win an election with fewer than a majority of the Electoral College votes by decreasing the overall number of electors appointed after the election. But it’s an argument the Trump team could put forward, and it’s an argument Democratic lawyers and experts are preparing for.

The first step in such a process is to get Republicans in states Trump loses to contest the certification of their own elections. In 2020, Trump and his team illegally tried to get slates of alternate electors submitted in states where Republicans control the state legislatures. They could try that again, but for this scheme to work, they don’t even have to get “fake” electors submitted but just to convince Republican state legislatures or Republican governors not to submit their valid slates of electors before statutorily imposed deadlines. All slates of electors are supposed to be certified by December 11. Those electors are then supposed to vote and submit their results by December 25.

What this means is that Republicans just have to delay long enough to pass those deadlines. They don’t have to win; they just have to stall.

There are currently 27 states with Republican state legislatures, including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. There are currently 26 Republican governors running states like Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and Virginia. If some of these people are able to delay certification past the deadline, the “whole number of Electors appointed” would be diminished, lowering the number of electors Trump would need to hold a majority.

In 2022, Congress passed the Electoral Count Reform Act. This is the only thing our government actually did to address the failed coup attempt launched by Trump after the 2020 election. Its most important provisions essentially provide a legal fast track for election-certification challenges, essentially providing a way to take these disputes out partisan legislatures and meandering state courts and put them in front of federal judges.

That might sound comforting, but it shouldn’t. Putting any of these challenges in front of federal judges sets them on a collision course with the Republican-controlled Supreme Court. As John Roberts and his cabal of antidemocratic goons (and their wives) have repeatedly shown this year, the Supreme Court is willing to do Trump’s dirty work. In 2020, the Supreme Court rejected almost all of Trump’s various nonsensical claims to overturn that election. But I wouldn’t be so sure they’ll do so again, especially because this time the Trump people will not necessarily be asking the court to overturn the results of a state’s election. They’ll just be asking them to delay certification of those results, until some later date. In addition to ruling for the Trumpers outright, the court could simply delay hearing the case for as long as the delay is helpful for Trump. The Supreme Court can put its thumb on the scale for Trump simply by pretending to “stay out of it” and allowing the “process” to play itself out.

If enough states refuse to certify the results of the election and submit a slate of electors—with the Supreme Court’s blessing—the math is not actually hard for Trump. Let’s say Vice President Kamala Harris wins the bare majority of Electoral College votes necessary, 270, but the Republican legislature in Wisconsin refuses to submit the state’s 10 electors by the deadline. In this scenario, the new total number of electors becomes 528, not 538—and Trump needs only 264 electoral votes to “win.” If you take Wisconsin and Nevada’s six electors out of the mix, Trump needs only 262 electoral votes to “win.” He’ll likely achieve those numbers without having to win one of the “blue wall” states.

It’s possible to play with the numbers until you find a “tie” scenario at which point the contingent election goes to the House of Representatives, but the far more likely situation is that Trump decreases the overall number of electoral votes available until he can claim a majority of the ones remaining.

Honestly, I felt really, really good about everything until reading this column. I'm confident Kamala/Walz will "win" on 11/5, the next day or the day after that. I'm now supremely worried about everything else.

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