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Bernie Sanders 2020 Watch

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13301

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Agreed. But isn't the point of a caucus to try to convince people to move to your candidate? Should you do that by ESP?

Of course that's the purpose. I didn't say it was harassment, just someone doing a bad job of what they are trying to accomplish.

You win people over a bunch of different ways, but when they are completely closed off and obviously dying for you to go away, that's when it's time to stop trying.

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Watching you commie fucks lose this election is going to be enjoyable. 

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it is really, really stupid that in the richest country in the world people are dying from lack of insulin. it's unconscionable, really.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13301

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The "fake Jew!" Warren lady posted a long thread apologizing, and in the middle of it, she went ahead and doubled down.

So nice of her to leave herself the space to continue being the arbiter of Jewish peoples' faith while apologizing for attacking Bernie's.

While many here like to moan loudly and constantly about online meanness that makes them feel bad, this kind of thing literally gets people killed.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

I don't know how to deal with Nate being like 200x more optimistic about Bernie's chances than me.

I don't like it.

 

Biden was the only credible competitor and he just got fucking annihilated.  Liz and Mayo only have pockets of support and aren't competitive in many states.  

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, triplehorn said:

fun fact:

 

Dems flipped 40 seats in 2018. Bernie’s Our Revolution backed 22 candidates in 2018. Not a single one contributed to that 40 seat total.

Yes, obviously a bunch of self proclaimed DSA members should have been elected otherwise that means no Democrat can win the presidency. Why don't we run Hillary again, the most safe centrist candidate ever!

 

Also, is your dumbass actually ignoring Tlaib, Omar, and AOC who all have more or less embraced the DSA label? Who all won in 2018?

Edited by GSU&UT
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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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Watch this if you haven't already. This woman interviews black PoC in Milwaukee to talk about supposed real "midwestern" values and how Bernie actually could do extremely well by picking up many of them who sat our more often in 2016.

 

 

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
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8 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Yes, obviously a bunch of self proclaimed DSA members should have been elected otherwise that means no Democrat can win the presidency. Why don't we run Hillary again, the most safe centrist candidate ever!

 

Also, is your dumbass actually ignoring Tlaib, Omar, and AOC who all have more or less embraced the DSA label? Who all won in 2018?

 

Is that some kind of rebuttal ?  Left prong of Hillary horseshoe in full effect.

Bernie's "Our Revolution" backed 22 House candidates in 2018 and not a single one won their race amidst a Blue wave.  That should give everyone pause.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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If your whole argument is about what Our Revolution did and literally based on no other polling numbers then that is one of the weakest arguments you could make about Bernie's chances in November. AOC, Tlaib, and Omar are all women of color who did not shy away from socialist-esque talking points and who all won. Some lady running in suburban Texas not winning as a self-proclaimed DSA doesn't mean shit about Biden, Pete, or anyone else and would be the most dumb thing to point at when we have actual polling data. There's been, what, 60 years of McCarthyism-style propaganda against the word "socialism," I am not surprised the first time since then that people who embraced Bernie didn't get swept into office, it's going to take years and years of olds dying off before we get anywhere near the kind of electorate I'd like regardless of whether Bernie wins the presidency.

Are you just completely ignorant of how hard it is to win any kind of election without big money support? It's why AOC is basically trying to fund a separate PAC right now because the DCCC is refusing to fund real progressive challengers where they face an up-hill battle.

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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Copy/pasting a fact.  You're attempting to minimize it using a sleight.  why is that ?

Bernie sank, what, about $50M into Iowa and got stood up by the mayor of SBend.  His coattails are lacking, or something.  You can argue that it's unfair and wrong that he's been pegged as a "Socialist" over which the population has been classically conditioned to get nauseated, but that has real world results.  Other candidates share policy views consistent with what Sanders has long advocated and they are successful on their own merits.  It's just a factual observation.  Crossing Socialism with angry asshole is a lethal combo.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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Bernie isn't strapped for cash dingus. He raised more in the month of January than any other candidate did in any QUARTER. Pete had more than double the number of offices in Iowa than any other candidate, including Bernie. Pete also has almost no non-white support, New Hampshire is the last state for many weeks where the overwhelming number of people are white.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted
Just now, triplehorn said:

That's not the point.  I'm not convinced spending $100M in Iowa gives Sanders an outright win.  It's a Bernie thing.

You've basically ignored the video I post earlier and this one. Bernie's base is no longer super-white, he's well positioned to smash everyone but Biden (who is cratering) in super non-white states. No one else comes close to being able to get the support to beat Trump.

 

 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Copy/pasting a fact.  You're attempting to minimize it using a sleight.  why is that ?

Bernie sank, what, about $50M into Iowa and got stood up by the mayor of SBend.  His coattails are lacking, or something.  You can argue that it's unfair and wrong that he's been pegged as a "Socialist" over which the population has been classically conditioned to get nauseated, but that has real world results.  Other candidates share policy views consistent with what Sanders has long advocated and they are successful on their own merits.  It's just a factual observation.  Crossing Socialism with angry asshole is a lethal combo.

Crossing stupidity with limitless posting time is a lethal combo

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

GOP Plan A for Trump re-election.  Wake the fuck up.

 

 

lmao, remember how Hillary encouraged Trump to run? Be careful for what you wish for. I seriously want to hear which candidate besides Bernie has the best chance to beat Trump.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13301

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Copy/pasting a fact.  You're attempting to minimize it using a sleight.  why is that ?

You haven't explained why that FACT should bother me, so I'm not even in a position to minimize it. You haven't given it scale.

So make the argument that is supposed to come out of your provided FACT.

Quote

Bernie sank, what, about $50M into Iowa and got stood up by the mayor of SBend.  His coattails are lacking, or something.

What would Iowa (which Bernie won) have to do with his coattails?

His coattails are strong. The most exciting youth energy in the Democratic is (1) non-white, (2) female, and (3) directly tied to Sanders. AOC is a thing because of Bernie.

Which other candidates can claim anything like that? None of them.

Also, Pete spent a TON of money in Iowa. He had more paid campaign offices than anyone else by far. He had a bigger paid staff there than anyone. And he spent part of this week away from being on the ground in NH to attend even more big-dollar fundraisers on the coasts.

Quote

Other candidates share policy views consistent with what Sanders has long advocated and they are successful on their own merits.

[citation needed]

What are Liz's coattails like? Buttigieg's? Biden's?

What have they won? Buttigieg got 8k mayoral votes in a town that hasn't had a Republican since Nixon. Warren is very unpopular in her home state. Biden is a historic presidential campaign loser.

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Nobody knows.  Electability is not a real thing.  I think every candidate running should be able to beat the dotard, barring election interference.  

Iowa results support your first two sentences.  It's eye opening that someone who's been in a position of national political visibility for a long time, who made it to a contentious final two in 2016, and who threw $50M at Iowa just got stood up by a young new faced mayor of a town with a population of 100k.  I didn't see that coming.  I'm not disappointed at all, just reminded of what we don't know and can't control. 

I do think the old established folks are the most likely have already hit their ceiling and have a thoroughly tested psychographic oppo playbook pre-packaged and ready to unleash across all platforms, Bernie topping the list.  They had it ready for Bernie in 2016, had he been the nom, and it would have been brutal.  All the pro-Trump bot and troll farm work has been heavily boosting Bernie.  The turrets are ready for the 180 and know the exact coordinates.  I don't think they have anywhere near the formula to counter a Pete today.  I'm looking at this as how to get past the lawless fuck in the WH, not whose policies resonate with me the most.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13301

Posted
Posted
Just now, triplehorn said:

I didn't see that coming.

Pete Buttigieg led the polling in Iowa for 2 months to end 2019 and

RCP Average before the caucus: Bernie -> Biden -> Buttigieg -> Warren
Actual result after the voting: Bernie -> Buttigieg -> Warren -> Biden

He definitely outperformed. He used his warchest very wisely to run up the SDE margin in rural counties that were given more weight than the more urban counties. He had 33 full staffed campaign offices in a state with fewer people than LA and a paid staff larger even than Warren's big-ass paid staff. He was a nobody in January. Within the last year, his profile has exploded.

Quote

 I don't think they have anywhere near the formula to counter a Pete today.

I know how they're going to attack Bernie. And I definitely know how they're going to attack Pete.

It's pretty telling that you can't see it.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19276

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Posted
8 hours ago, triplehorn said:

GOP Plan A for Trump re-election.  Wake the fuck up.

 

 

I remember a lot of people urging Dems to vote for the dotard in early primaries as well.  Hell, my old man actually did it.  And don’t think I don’t forget to give him shit about it anytime he gets fired up about dotard with a “Well, if you don’t like him then you shouldn’t have voted for him.”

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406W30th

406W30th 1111

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11 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I remember a lot of people urging Dems to vote for the dotard in early primaries as well.  Hell, my old man actually did it.  And don’t think I don’t forget to give him shit about it anytime he gets fired up about dotard with a “Well, if you don’t like him then you shouldn’t have voted for him.”

Same. Father-in-law voted for Trump in the primary thinking he'd be cannon fodder in the general. Whoops. 

Now I'm working on getting him to vote Bernie in this year's primary. He was leaning Biden then Bloomberg, both due to their "electability". Ok, boomer.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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@bad_teammate You're more in-tune with the volunteering base of Bernie. Pete doesn't have anywhere near the number of offices in New Hampshire as he did in Iowa right? Trying to get an answer on Twitter, but I'm wondering how many more volunteers are canvasing for Bernie in NH vs the other candidates as opposed to Iowa where Pete had a huge base by spending so much money.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13301

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Good questions.

I looked it up and it looks like in NH, Pete has 12 offices, Bernie has 15 offices, and Warren has 17 offices. For all intents and purposes, this is basically the same. Sometimes you have one big office with a ton of staffers that counts for as much as 3 offices elsewhere. I'd imagine they all have anywhere from 80-120 paid staff in the state, but there isn't a ton of daylight between how these 3 are running their campaigns on the ground. Bernie is more decentralized-volunteer focused, but it's splitting hairs at this point.

Warren and Buttigieg have been on the ball since the beginning and they've gameplanned this out. Pete is not going to be caught sleeping at any point in this process. Both he and Warren learned from Obama '08 and Sanders '16 and they know how important strong, on-the-ground organizations are and they've built that from the beginning of 2019. Two extremely smart candidates running a really good, focused gameplan.

Volunteers? That's really hard to keep track of because it's just up to how passionate the base feels. It can be boom and bust. There were reports coming out of Iowa that some offices were choked by a ton of volunteers showing up without stuff to do. In the Slack there were people saying they were re-knocking doors that had been covered because staffers were overwhelmed and handed out duplicate packets.

From the lazy Texan part of things (phonebanking and textbanking), I don't really know because Iowa had me so pissed/depressed I didn't even look at anything until Thursday. I'm going to make calls today, but I don't know if it'll be NH or what. I'll update, I guess.

 

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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Posted

It sounds like the Pete bump is real from scrolling through Twitter but there is a small army of Bernie volunteers that are hyper-motivated and are knocking on insane numbers of doors. If Bernie can get the nomination it will be crazy to see the numbers of people that will come out to canvas.

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gmr548

gmr548 16635

Posted
Posted
On 2/7/2020 at 10:31 AM, GSU&UT said:

Watch this if you haven't already. This woman interviews black PoC in Milwaukee to talk about supposed real "midwestern" values and how Bernie actually could do extremely well by picking up many of them who sat our more often in 2016.

 

 

Ding ding ding.

I feel like a #BernieBro because I am a broken record on this Subject, but the progressive populist message from Sanders (not necessarily just him, but he is the topic) does very well in the midwest. He outperformed Clinton in many of those states in 2016 and probably carries those states, and therefore the general election, if he's the nominee. A "moderate" is not the key there. There are a lot more black/young potential voters in Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Philly, etc. that can be rallied than there are voters legitimately torn on Donald Trump, and think that Pete/Biden are a suitable replacement, but Sanders/Warren are just too much.

Trump is a very polarizing figure - very few who are even considering voting in 2020 don't hold a strong opinion of him. Trump is underwater in WI, MI, PA, and even OH and IA. The votes are out there. Democrats need to go get them instead of being hyper focused on what is a very small portion of the electorate, even in these states.

 

On 2/7/2020 at 12:30 PM, triplehorn said:

GOP Plan A for Trump re-election.  Wake the fuck up.

 

 

That seems stupid, not only because of what I pointed out above, but because Sanders is probably about to win NH and very possibly NV. The last thing the GOP should want is the Democratic nominating process not being the prolonged, bloody contest many fear. Not that their strategy will work, it never does, but if Sanders hypothetically won SC, he could effectively end the race on Super Tursday. 

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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Primary is not General, as you are aware.  I think GOP calculus is that their oppo playbook on Sanders is far worse with him as the Dem nominee than the negative effect of any prolonged primary fight.

I’m voting against Trump under all circumstances, but I don’t trust Sanders’ ability to actually deliver.  Worst case is he accomplishes little to nothing, especially if his nomination doesn’t carry a flip in control of the Senate.

 If there’s a Dem candidate that’s more likely to flip the Senate, then by all means support that one.  Conceivably Dems could flip the Senate and lose key battleground states and the WH, but unlikely.

If the eventual Dem nominee wins the primaries in the states where vulnerable Senate GOP reside, that would be great.  Something to keep an eye on.

 

 

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406W30th

406W30th 1111

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

His turnout wasn't that impressive in Iowa. 

 

Turnout among Bernie's biggest demographic – voters under 30 years old – was very impressive.

 

Quote

“In 2016, under-30 voters accounted for just 18 percent of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers. In 2008, under-30 voters made up 23 percent of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers. If 2020 turnout is closer to 2008 than 2016, that could swing the election to Sanders.” Despite the modest overall turnout, that’s exactly what happened. According to Iowa entrance polls, voters under 30 comprised 24 percent of the caucus-going electorate — up six points from 2016 and one point better than 2008, when young voters carried Barack Obama to victory. Those voters preferred Sanders to Buttigieg by nearly 30 points, 48 percent to 19 percent, as did voters age 30–44 by ten points, 33 percent to 23 percent.

 

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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3160

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, 406W30th said:

 

Turnout among Bernie's biggest demographic – voters under 30 years old – was very impressive.

 

 

Yeah I don't see a revolution in those numbers especially when you consider the '08 raw numbers were much bigger. 

Also, Bernie is selling being able to reach rural middle-aged white Trump voters. Those numbers were down for the Dems.

Edited by Bruh Man
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