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Bernie Sanders 2020 Watch

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

I was given calls in California tonight. Only 20% even picked up and half of those wereediate hang ups or "oh God no" reactions to hearing about politics.

Definitely not as engaged as Iowans.
 

Thanks - it's a first contact for many. Very different from Iowa. Most Californians don't do politics. The commute, work, commute, and enjoy some off-time. Bernie's Commercials will play well here. They are waiting to see what the fuss is all about. If Iowa is excited about Bernie, they will be too. 

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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

When Bernie is president only the rich children will be put in cages. 

Johnny Sack
Johnny Sack

Watching you commie fucks lose this election is going to be enjoyable. 

Longhorn_Fan68
Longhorn_Fan68

it is really, really stupid that in the richest country in the world people are dying from lack of insulin. it's unconscionable, really.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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lol wut
There's much weirder shit out there. The reason I love online political discourse is that it forces you to think about your own ideas because you'll get owned. JK Simmons slapping you in the face until you get the tempo right (Whiplash is a good movie.)

Sometimes people are just free-associating out there. lol
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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26437

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On 1/25/2020 at 10:24 PM, triplehorn said:

His answer to this interview question.  woah.

 

I saw this interview and it pissed me off. It is blatantly obvious to me that CBS has their marching orders to defeat Bernie. Where is the similar questioning of Warren's plan? Seems like all the major networks are following CNN's lead from the last debate that Bernie shouldn't be the nominee. Corporatism is going to destroy this election.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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8 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Where is the similar questioning of Warren's plan? Seems like all the major networks are following CNN's lead from the last debate that Bernie shouldn't be the nominee. Corporatism is going to destroy this election.

They'd be going after Warren the exact same way if she was the lead horse.

They like Liz more, but not by much. She's on our side, it's just a hot time in this competitive campaign. Once things start to shake out it'll become clearer (again) who the friends are and who the enemies are.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

Posted
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26 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I saw this interview and it pissed me off. It is blatantly obvious to me that CBS has their marching orders to defeat Bernie. Where is the similar questioning of Warren's plan? Seems like all the major networks are following CNN's lead from the last debate that Bernie shouldn't be the nominee. Corporatism is going to destroy this election.

The good thing is some of the smarter Obama guys see the problem and are willing to call it out. Check out this subtle indictment of Washington by Favreau and Rhodes:

https://twitter.com/brhodes/status/1221491447234322433

And Rhodes calling out David Frum left a mark.

https://twitter.com/brhodes/status/1221833992686596099

David Frum (Republican/Neocon/war monger) is not a friend of Democrats, but he is trying to lead them. 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26437

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16 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

They'd be going after Warren the exact same way if she was the lead horse.

They like Liz more, but not by much. She's on our side, it's just a hot time in this competitive campaign. Once things start to shake out it'll become clearer (again) who the friends are and who the enemies are.

You think they are 'all in' for Biden?

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted
Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

You think they are 'all in' for Biden?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

They are all in for their profit interests. Out of the Top 3, Biden is obviously the most amenable to their corporate desires. If Biden goes against that, then they'll throw him in the trash, too.

They'd rather have Trump than Bernie. They'd rather have Biden than Trump. They'd rather have Warren than Trump by a thin margin.

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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This Is How Trump Would Destroy Bernie Sanders

" [...] Take his signature proposal, single-payer healthcare. A poll conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that 60 percent of swing voters in the pivotal states of Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin consider it a “bad idea.” Other polls consistently show that most Americans favor protecting their access to private insurance—including working people happy with the coverage their unions fought to secure. One wonders whether Sanders envisions using a general election campaign to undertake their reeducation.

Further, Americans of many stripes are endemically dubious about the quality and responsiveness of government programs. Having suffered the ministrations of their local Bureau of Motor Vehicles, they imagine standing in line, literally and figuratively, to receive mediocre healthcare.

Then there is cost. Asked about this, Sanders has said “I don’t give a number and I’ll tell you why: it’s such a large number and so complicated that if I gave a number you and 50 other people would go through it say, ‘Oh…’”

Instead, Sanders argues generally that all but the wealthy would save more—by abolishing premiums, copayments, and deductibles—than they would pay in increased taxes. But Sanders rarely mentions the failure of his home state of Vermont to enact a single-payer program—precisely because no one in either party could figure out how to pay for it. Come September, Trump would not be quite so reticent.

A candidate less doctrinaire than Sanders would appreciate that Republicans have gift wrapped this issue by attempting to abolish Obamacare and, with it, popular protections such as coverage for pre-existing conditions. All Democrats need do is give Americans a choice between private insurance and Medicare for those who want it. The alternative is electoral malpractice—a self-inflicted debate mired in charges that the Democrats are narrowing choice and raising taxes. Which is exactly what Bernie promises his nominal party.

[cont.]"

 

Bernie has to be better prepared for this.  It is electoral malpractice to not be.  Seeing him revert to being an indignant crank when confronted with the obvious is really bad. no bueno.

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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What's your point?  Bill Kristol, that evil neocon, is afraid of Bernie ? 

I'm looking at possibly 60% of swing voters in MI, MN, WI, and PA considering single payer with no choice as a "bad idea" combined with Sanders' grouchy fumble when asked about the estimated 60T price tag over 10 years on his whole package.  

 

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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Kaiser Family Foundation = Monsanto and Exxon Mobile?  What, no Phillip Morris and Purdue Pharma ?? lol

It's a hard sell when you have thin skin and get emotionally derailed over confrontations you should have rehearsed to the letter in your sleep.  With that in mind, convincing up to 60% swing voters in 4 pivotal states who think single payer is a "bad idea" to vote for Bernie is daunting.  Even if they are outnumbered by tens of millions nationally, it won't matter electorally in the general.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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You're severely underestimating Bernie's campaign if they think that simply saying "M4A is wonderful" is going to flip skeptics. Half the damn rallies I've watched he's had people speak about their medical debt or trouble dealing with health insurance and there is no shortage of people willing to speak up at all.

There's no doubt in my mind he's cut into lots of middle-aged Iowans' fears over what they'd do if they had a medical emergency because so many of the people I've seen weren't the young hispter millennials that the media acts as if are the only ones who support him.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Organizations with a financial interest in what is being studied are not to be trusted. I think that's fairly basic common sense. There is no emotionalism here, just simple reasoning. There is no link in that article to methodology or question sets or samples.

When you are getting answers to these questions, you can easily get the results you want by how you phrase the questions. It's called push polling.

Hypothetical 1 "Medicare-for-All will eliminate everyone's private health insurance plans and replace them with a government-run plan that will raise taxes. Is Medicare-for-All a good idea?"

Hypothetical 2: "Medicare-for-All will put every American on Medicare and replace their private insurance premiums, copays, and deductibles with a single tax. Is Medicare-for-All a good idea?"

 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26437

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Yeah, I'm a fairly conservative guy running a small business and I can tell you, healthcare is a big issue for both employees and employers. Seems like many of our raises over the last few years are eaten up by rising health care costs and it his the employers harder than the employees. 

Something needs to change.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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I looked at the polling. https://www.kff.org/other/report/blue-wall-voices-project/ From the actual polling data and correct me if I am wrong:

Among Democrats - A majority (62%), say a national health plan in which all Americans would get their health coverage through a single government plan, Medicare-for-all, is a “good idea.” 

Swing voters are roughly 40% of those states.

In those states, 39-42% of the swing voters will definitely or probably vote Democratic. Once you take that chunk out of the swing voters, you are left with the roughly 26% of the voters left in those states who they define as swing.

Let's eliminate the definitely or probably Republican voters, which leaves 21-25% of the 40% of the swing voters who are actual swing voters. Some are gettable but let's assume they aren't.

That leave approximately - 10% of the voters in that state who truly don't know or don't want to say if they are leaning toward voting for Trump or Democrats. Correct?

Should the Democrats run on their values attempt to triangulate those undecided? Does centrism work for getting their votes or a positive and progressive bright future?

Look at the support for the Green New Deal. That is Amazing in those states.

Should these goals be championed or shoved to the side for undecided making up 10% of the electorate?  How did triangulation work in 2016?

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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23 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yeah, I'm a fairly conservative guy running a small business and I can tell you, healthcare is a big issue for both employees and employers. Seems like many of our raises over the last few years are eaten up by rising health care costs and it his the employers harder than the employees. 

Something needs to change.

Small businesses are definitely hurt by health insurance tied to employment. Sever that tie and small employers have a much easier time competing for good employees.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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parody - an imitation of the style of a particular writer, artist, or genre with deliberate exaggeration for comic effect.

 

To buy the very real perfume advertised in that genuine, non-parody commercial, go to ThePeoplesPerfume.com

 

So we are clearly in a situation where disappointment with a predicted outcome is shattering psyches. People are giving themselves fresh cases of online PTSD as they rightly or wrongly fear an upcoming solid performance from Bernie based on a week or two of polling. There is hope that ramping up character attacks will turn the tide, but that's a pretty destructive path not only to the party unity they ostensibly seek but also to their own emotional health.

 

I don't even mean this as a criticism, just an observation. Sucks to see.

 

The dual NYT/WaPO pieces on Bernie Bros threw gasoline on the social media fire.

 

 

 

 

 

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Riotwomen is a good source for the crap bluechecks feed that gets devoured by the unstable set of people. 

I see that account and the fucking Horse Guy in almost every big positive Bernie tweet. Bernie winning is going to melt their brains because of how long they've been pushing the #VoteBlueNoMatterWho crap assuming Bernie didn't have a shot.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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The West Wing is not a good model for the Democratic Party in 2020. Hubris as displayed in the West Wing television series was beaten by a game show host in 2016. Let's not make that a pattern. It's a fantasy television program. Power, not semantics, wins elections and rules this nation.

Obama’s soaring speeches, quintessentially presidential affect, and deference to procedure did little to fundamentally improve the country or prevent his Republican rivals from storming the Congressional barricades at their first opportunity.

Confronted by a mercurial TV personality bent on transgressing every norm and truism of Beltway thinking, Democrats responded by exhaustively informing voters of his indecency and hypocrisy, attempting to destroy him countless times with his own logic, but ultimately leaving him completely intact.

They smugly taxonomized as “smart” and “dumb” the very electorate they needed to win over, and retreated into an ideological fever dream in which political success doesn’t come from organizing and building power, but from having the most polished arguments and the most detailed policy statements. If you can just crush Trump in the debates, as Bartlet did to Richie, then you’ve won. That’s not an exaggeration of the worldview. Ezra Klein published an article entitled “Hillary Clinton’s 3 debate performances left the Trump campaign in ruins,” which entirely eliminated the distinction between what happens in debates and what happens in campaigns. 

The belief that politics is about argument rather than power is likely a symptom of a Democratic politics increasingly incubated in the Ivy League rather than the labor movement.

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2017/04/how-liberals-fell-in-love-with-the-west-wing

 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

The West Wing is not a good model for the Democratic Party in 2020. Hubris as displayed in the West Wing television series was beaten by a game show host in 2016. Let's not make that a pattern. It's a fantasy television program. Power, not semantics, wins elections and rules this nation.

wait, so a show that ended in 2006 is not a good model for the democratic party 14 years later?  shocking revelation.

the thing most people forget as they romanticize former tv shows, is the actual content.  the show was about stumbling democrats who always felt superior in their policy ideas but never had the capacity to cross the finish line and accomplish anything meaningful.  they struggled against the system and let everything possible get in their way (including and especially themselves).  after 5-6 years in office, there were several conversations about how hard they think they're trying, yet seem to continue to run in place.

that article tried so hard to draw a parallel between gov richie (who lost the election) and trump, when the character is clearly based on w (totally different types of republicans one would think).  trying to draw a separate parallel between hillary's campaign and bartlet's reelection attitude could only be made by someone who didn't watch the arc of episodes.  it's all pretty silly, but fun to place blame because laughing at hillary is fun.

the point though, still stands.  that fantasy television program showed republicans, unified and strong, constantly beating dems at every turn because they understood how power worked, while the dems hid behind their grand ideas as they lost vote after vote.  acting like the one reelection win sends the wrong message is completely missing the point.

so i guess we'll see soon, if a democrat can win and get their policies passed into law.  or if art will truly imitate life. 

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