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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,973

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2 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Yes, it’s not a private lender, but it’s still a loan that is expected to be paid back (so much so that it’s not dischargeable in bankruptcy).   Your position is that student loans are not expected to be repaid and that interest rates are not related to default risk?

They are not related to default risk. Period. You can have a 0 credit score and get a federal student loan. And whether you have a 1200 or a 200 credit score, you pay the same interest rate. This is not a market; market forces are not in play. 

You have no choice but to repay federal student loans. You cannot get additional federal student loans if you default or are defaulting. 

So why aren't they at a nominal rate? 

And what is the deflationary effect of main street Americans walking around with a massive, non-dischargeable debt obligation? 

We have been fighting deflation since 2008. That is macroeconomics 101. We have had extraordinary low rates by the Fed since 2008. Why? Because the deflationary headwinds remain strong. 

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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

When Bernie is president only the rich children will be put in cages. 

Johnny Sack
Johnny Sack

Watching you commie fucks lose this election is going to be enjoyable. 

Longhorn_Fan68
Longhorn_Fan68

it is really, really stupid that in the richest country in the world people are dying from lack of insulin. it's unconscionable, really.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19,542

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1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

The longer version makes it even worse. 

If he is going to be the nominee and have any chance against Trump - he will need to improve quickly or we are toast. As repeated over and over this cycle, electability for the centrists was the main issue. He is not electable at this point and his own speeches prove it. It's not a stutter. I saw his debate against Paul Ryan and he crushed him. This is not the same Fightin' Biden. If Job One is to beat Trump, today's Biden does not get us there. 

I watched loved ones descend down this path {if it is "cognitive decline").  It does not get better. It is sad beyond words.

But there are many people in America whose actual lives depend on the outcome of election. I know the centrists want to protect what is theirs, but try to consider the less fortunate who actually bear the hell of another four years of Trump. Some of them will not survive. Please consider them. 

There is no if.

Joe Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47,203

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56 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Plenty of Americans think a lot of things should be free, but that’s not how pricing works.

Student loans are loans to 18 year olds with no assets to foreclose on and no guarantee of them even finishing college or having any kind of income stream for years (or ever).   It’s much riskier for the lender than a mortgage or car loan. 

I addressed that.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47,203

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1 minute ago, longhornmatt said:

They aren’t at a nominal rate because it’s not currently viewed as an entitlement.  Congress would set the interest rate at 0 if they didn’t care about default risk.  Congress would actually just make it a Bernie style public benefit rather than a loan if they didn’t care about any market forces.

Can you wrap your head around the possibility that Biden was alluding to this?

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19,542

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8 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

They aren’t at a nominal rate because it’s not currently viewed as an entitlement.  Congress would set the interest rate at 0 if they didn’t care about default risk.  Congress would actually just make it a Bernie style public benefit rather than a loan if they didn’t care about any market forces.

The Fed interest rate is extraordinarily low because (a) our national debt that neither party cares about is too high for us to afford paying high interest rates anymore, so they’re probably always going to be artificially low (which is not a good thing), and (b) the parties in power have decided they would rather juice the economy with every short term stimulus they can rather than encourage the Fed to be responsible.  

The only President in the last 40 years who didn’t advocate for juicing the economy every way he could lost re-election despite overseeing the most successful and painless war ever, so that isn’t going to change, either.

Isn't part of the problem that they aren't actually loans from the government, but rather guaranteed by the government?

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,973

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Just now, David Dennison said:

Isn't part of the problem that they aren't actually loans from the government, but rather guaranteed by the government?

That's a common questions. These are not guaranteed loans of the past. This is direct lending by the federal government. The program changed dramatically in 2010 after the 2007-08 Great Financial Crisis. 92% of loans are from the Federal Government. 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,973

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17 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

They aren’t at a nominal rate because it’s not currently viewed as an entitlement.  Congress would set the interest rate at 0 if they didn’t care about default risk.  Congress would actually just make it a Bernie style public benefit rather than a loan if they didn’t care about any market forces.

The Federal Government is making billions off of Federal Student loans.

Lowering the rates to nominal levels is not a radical idea for combatting the issue. The CENTRIST Brookings think tank has studied the issue and agrees lowering the interest rate on these loans is a wise policy.

Quote

End government profits on student loans: Shift risk and lower interest rates

Student loans make billions of dollars for U.S. taxpayers, at least on paper. These profits attract frequent criticism from politicians, most recently in a letter to the Education Department by six U.S. senators led by Elizabeth Warren, who has previously called the profits “obscene” and “morally wrong.”

. . . In order to zero out government profits, interest rates would be significantly lower under this system.[6] The government currently draws much of its “profits” from the difference between student loan interest rates and its (lower) cost of borrowing. For example, each year the interest rate on loans for undergraduates is set at about two percentage points above the Treasury rate on 10-year loans. With a guarantee fund protecting taxpayers from defaults, students could pay an interest rate equal to the government’s cost of borrowing corresponding to the length of their loans. Current Treasury rates are 1.9 percent for a 10-year loan and 2.4 percent for a 20-year loan, both significantly less than the 4.7 percent undergraduates pay.[7]

Worth a read if you are interested in the subject:

https://www.brookings.edu/research/end-government-profits-on-student-loans-shift-risk-and-lower-interest-rates/

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19,542

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3 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

That's a common questions. These are not guaranteed loans of the past. This is direct lending by the federal government. The program changed dramatically in 2010 after the 2007-08 Great Financial Crisis. 92% of loans are from the Federal Government. 

From what I gather, the rate for federal undergraduate loans is 4.5%.

Not horrible, but not great either. 

What really needs to happen is the ability to discharge student loan debt through bankruptcy.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19,542

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4 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

The Federal Government is making billions off of Federal Student loans.

Lowering the rates to nominal levels is not a radical idea for combatting the issue. The CENTRIST Brookings think tank has studied the issue and agrees lowering the interest rate on these loans is a wise policy.

Worth a read if you are interested in the subject:

https://www.brookings.edu/research/end-government-profits-on-student-loans-shift-risk-and-lower-interest-rates/

Are they making money off of undergraduate loans?

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47,203

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10 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

From what I gather, the rate for federal undergraduate loans is 4.5%.

Not horrible, but not great either. 

What really needs to happen is the ability to discharge student loan debt through bankruptcy.

Last I saw was 5.03% or some such.

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4,668

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I thought this was a pretty low key but interesting look at "socialism".  https://freakonomics.com/podcast/socialism/

Couple of interesting observations were one that Scandinavia was essentially drafting off the more vicious US economy and it's tendency to favor innovations over the health of workers.  The other was the idea that apart from health care, the problem of educational opportunity disparity is surprising in the US, given our history of broadly supporting public education.  

All in all, it does make some interesting points as to why, historically and culturally, the US isn't going to go whole hog into social democracy/democratic socialism.

Also anyone link to any thoughtful responses to Casey Mulligan's (expectedly one-sided) conclusions?

If fully implemented, but otherwise implemented wisely, Senator Sanders’ agenda for the economy would reduce real GDP and consumption by 24 percent.  Real wages would fall more than 50 percent after taxes.  Employment and hours would fall 16 percent combined.  There would be less total healthcare, less childcare, less energy available to households, and less value added in the university sector.  Although it is more difficult to forecast, the stock market would likely fall more than 50 percent…

https://www.city-journal.org/bernie-sanders-economic-agenda

 

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4,668

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2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

I know the centrists want to protect what is theirs, but try to consider the less fortunate who actually bear the hell of another four years of Trump. Some of them will not survive. Please consider them. 

Pretty much the entire anti-Sander's stance rests on this consideration alone. 

It certainly may be a misplaced notion, and it is certainly a gamble, but their notion is that a Sander's victory is utterly abandoning the less fortunate, and a Biden one at least gives them a chance.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,973

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55 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

I thought this was a pretty low key but interesting look at "socialism".  https://freakonomics.com/podcast/socialism/

Couple of interesting observations were one that Scandinavia was essentially drafting off the more vicious US economy and it's tendency to favor innovations over the health of workers.  The other was the idea that apart from health care, the problem of educational opportunity disparity is surprising in the US, given our history of broadly supporting public education.  

All in all, it does make some interesting points as to why, historically and culturally, the US isn't going to go whole hog into social democracy/democratic socialism.

Also anyone link to any thoughtful responses to Casey Mulligan's (expectedly one-sided) conclusions?

If fully implemented, but otherwise implemented wisely, Senator Sanders’ agenda for the economy would reduce real GDP and consumption by 24 percent.  Real wages would fall more than 50 percent after taxes.  Employment and hours would fall 16 percent combined.  There would be less total healthcare, less childcare, less energy available to households, and less value added in the university sector.  Although it is more difficult to forecast, the stock market would likely fall more than 50 percent…

https://www.city-journal.org/bernie-sanders-economic-agenda

 

I will look for links to research but a couple of points I gleaned from reading his political pitch framed as economics.

As you know - Casey was Trump's CEA chief for a couple of years. He is in the extreme right of the zerohedge spectrum. He cherry picks from Hayek.

An example - he obsesses on socialism, but only when socialistic policies would help the extremely wealthy. So, when he looked at economic policies of Trump, he has no opinion on corporate socialism - the bailouts, the protection of multinationals through federal spending, defense costs to protect industries, the negative externalities and most importantly the lost opportunity costs  caused by welfare/socialism for the wealthy and concentrated industries. 

His analysis is couched in an economic trick - he doesn't look at revenue based on proposed funding sources for legislation. His opinions usually contain cheats. Here is one in the article you referenced: his model is "assuming that its taxation was efficient and prudent (focusing on labor and consumption taxes, rather than taxes on wealth, for example)"

That is not the funding proposal for these plans. Who says "efficient and prudent" taxation is based on labor and consumption taxes rather than taxes on wealth? The father of capitalism, Adam Smith, called for taxation on rents, not income and consumption tax. And why is taxation on wealth, especially idle wealth that does not create jobs or industry, protected? 

The problem with his approach is that we have followed it (neoliberalism) since the late 1970's and it has steadily dismantled the nation's economy and its people, which has concentrated wealth in the hands of the very few.

We are now a consumer economy thanks to neoliberal economic policies. Our economic power is driven by people consuming and debt caused largely by corporate welfare. When the consuming stops because the poor, the working class and the middle class cannot spend anymore, the economy crumbles. He knows that. This is a greed game run by billionaires to squeeze every last penny from Americans before it crashes. They are killing the golden goose. They don't care, as long as their billions grow. And when it doesn't, they do not give a damn.

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Newy25

Newy25 7,916

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3 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

I know you are a smart person, but you do understand "student loans" changed dramatically in 2010, correct? And you understand student loans are rarely dischargeable in bankruptcy? And you understand who is responsible for making them loans v. grants? 

So tell me why anything more than nominal interest is charged at all on student "loans" by the Federal Government?

And this is how you have people that can support Bernie. Ignore the forces of nature at play and just go outside and yell at the clouds. Meanwhile, everyone else sees the absurdity of the notion and chooses to vote for the other guy.

It’s actually reassuring that brain dead stupidity is being supported so minimally. And that the powers to be inside the Democratic Party are self aware enough to recognize that throwing their support behind Biden is the smart move. 

If you want to see someone other than Trump, the last thing you want to see in a debate while Trump is bragging about low unemployment and economic growth is the cranky old guy telling us why socialism is such a great economic system. Biden might forget where he is at or accidentally call Trump Ronald Reagan during the debate but he isn’t going to spew policy absurdity that will make independent voters terrified to vote for him. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,524

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1 minute ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Wow. Basically telling Biden the script to speak to, to win over Bernie's base. He is out and is trying to hand off to Biden. 

Yes, 100%.

Bernie's not in this for vainglory, never has been. He's in this to push for the things he thinks are important. Joe can win this argument with Bernie very easily by simply doing a better job answering those questions.

 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,524

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I'm not interested in going into this during this primary season or using it to conspiracy theorize. Happy to see grandpa take an ass-kicking right now.

But we need major small-d democratic reforms going forward, and massive discrepancies like this are a real problem. As are huge voting lines, voter ID requirements, kicking people off of rolls, lack of same-day registration, etc...

It's 2020, there's no excuse for any of this shit to case doubt on our democratic processes.

We have a ton of house-cleaning to do before we worry about an office building full of Russian teenagers with computers.

And I know the bad faith trolls will respond to this as if I'm making excuses, but I'm not. I hesitate to even bring it up because of the bad faith trolls, but I'm a fan of transparent democracy and we should figure it out.

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horn4life

horn4life 3,838

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Wow this is the first time I have been on this thread.  I really, rally didn't know how very, very interested so many Republicans are in assisting Bernie in his fight. 

Bernie will be Bernie and fight on!  Then hopefully next week after total destruction in Florida he will finally start realizing he has been helping Trump more than the Dems.

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Zavala

Zavala 1,384

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42 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Wow this is the first time I have been on this thread.  I really, rally didn't know how very, very interested so many Republicans are in assisting Bernie in his fight. 

Bernie will be Bernie and fight on!  Then hopefully next week after total destruction in Florida he will finally start realizing he has been helping Trump more than the Dems.

something something Russia

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Pig Bellmont

Pig Bellmont 8,886

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1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

I'm not interested in going into this during this primary season or using it to conspiracy theorize. Happy to see grandpa take an ass-kicking right now.

But we need major small-d democratic reforms going forward, and massive discrepancies like this are a real problem. As are huge voting lines, voter ID requirements, kicking people off of rolls, lack of same-day registration, etc...

It's 2020, there's no excuse for any of this shit to case doubt on our democratic processes.

We have a ton of house-cleaning to do before we worry about an office building full of Russian teenagers with computers.

 

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And I know the bad faith trolls will respond to this as if I'm making excuses, but I'm not. I hesitate to even bring it up because of the bad faith trolls, but I'm a fan of transparent democracy and we should figure it out.

 

People don’t use exit polls to stage coups. They are historically unreliable or else I somehow missed the years of President John Kerry. There’s no conspiracy here

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,524

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Bernie needs to stay all the way, no matter how badly he loses.

It's alarming that he's the only one saying this.

We are in the middle of a global pandemic and the presumptive Democratic nominee's plan is to HOPEFULLY get 97% of people covered.

It's a fucking crime.

 

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