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Super Bowl LVII - Las Vegas


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22 minutes ago, Underdog said:

IMG_0041.gif.6c271a2a6e64c74e86a5426fda7d8a68.gif

I turned it off early 4Q just after the Niners took the lead.  I think a 5:30 or 6:00 KO would be good.  Not a fan of the Saturday night idea, Saturday night’s alright for fighting, just not for the SB. 
 

It kicked off at 5:45 central. 

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35 minutes ago, mdmost said:

49ers aren’t taking the loss well

 

 

 

23 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Their unit performed pretty well during the season just based on my half-assed, armchair stats lookback. 

 

I mean thats fucking bullshit.  their defense only gave up 25 points total in 5 quarters, had four 3 & out's another 4 & out and intercepted the ball at the Chiefs 44, helped force 5 fucking fumbles, including one they recovered at their own 8.

 

I mean, the 49ers defense was a main fucking reason that game was tied at 19 going into the  OT.

 

that being said, sounds like Dallas should hire him

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14 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

 

I mean thats fucking bullshit.  their defense only gave up 25 points total in 5 quarters, had four 3 & out's another 4 & out and intercepted the ball at the Chiefs 44, helped force 5 fucking fumbles, including one they recovered at their own 8.

 

I mean, the 49ers defense was a main fucking reason that game was tied at 19 going into the  OT.

 

that being said, sounds like Dallas should hire him

Not to mention losing one their very best defenders early on.

Sounds like a ‘Beatings will continue until morale improves’ type move.

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I'm picturing a demented scenario where the 49ers GM called the DC into his office and said, "Yes, this is about your position within the organization."  

And then fluffed his hair like Anton Chigurh and asked, "Tell me, what's the most you ever lost on a coin toss?"  

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I mean thats fucking bullshit.  their defense only gave up 25 points total in 5 quarters, had four 3 & out's another 4 & out and intercepted the ball at the Chiefs 44, helped force 5 fucking fumbles, including one they recovered at their own 8.
 
I mean, the 49ers defense was a main fucking reason that game was tied at 19 going into the  OT.
 
that being said, sounds like Dallas should hire him
KC scored on their final 4 possessions. Plenty of blame to go around, including the defense. Especially with all the talent up front they have. No idea if anything was going on behind the scenes but their defense got abused these playoffs.
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11 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I thought we agreed that taking the ball first in overtime was fine, just needed that stop and SF would be good. 

No. It’s a shit decision. You basically told Chiefs/Mahomes to go for it every 4th down. 
 

Also this is the first OT With these playoff OT rules so spare me with the dumb shit analytics that are not present because it’s the 1st. 
 

 

Default to college OT rules and go defense first in a guaranteed possession OT. Also the offense for a 3rd possession argument is dumb as fuck too. 

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I thought we agreed that taking the ball first in overtime was fine, just needed that stop and SF would be good. 

It was a reasonable decision. Once the game progressed his decision to go on 4th and 4 at the Chiefs 9 was questionable but not indefensible. At that point, you’re trading 56 yards to get into FG range versus 75 for the TD when the Chiefs get the ball.

Once the Chiefs passed the 49ers 35 on their actual possession, the Chiefs are likely to kick the FG on anything more than 4th and 2 to tie.

The biggest factor that I don’t think was known until later was that the Chiefs go for 2 if they score.

All this was decided knowing that KCs only TD was a 16 yard possession so there are a considerable number of factors in taking the ball first.
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41 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

No. It’s a shit decision. You basically told Chiefs/Mahomes to go for it every 4th down. 
 

Also this is the first OT With these playoff OT rules so spare me with the dumb shit analytics that are not present because it’s the 1st. 
 

 

Default to college OT rules and go defense first in a guaranteed possession OT. Also the offense for a 3rd possession argument is dumb as fuck too. 

 

5 minutes ago, Had Enough said:


It was a reasonable decision. Once the game progressed his decision to go on 4th and 4 at the Chiefs 9 was questionable but not indefensible. At that point, you’re trading 56 yards to get into FG range versus 75 for the TD when the Chiefs get the ball.

Once the Chiefs passed the 49ers 35 on their actual possession, the Chiefs are likely to kick the FG on anything more than 4th and 2 to tie.

The biggest factor that I don’t think was known until later was that the Chiefs go for 2 if they score.

All this was decided knowing that KCs only TD was a 16 yard possession so there are a considerable number of factors in taking the ball first.

Yeah, I think it was a reasonable decision. You put pressure to score first, then stop them knowing they have 4 downs to play with, but if you can do that, you then  have a huge advantage needing just a field goal to win. What made the difference to me is that the defense was gassed defending a long drive at the end of regulation. There being a good strategic reason to take it first (getting the first sudden death possession if you take care of business and possibly having 2 possessions to opponents 1) the defense needing rest is a good reason to take the ball first. I'll never agree with "the decision sucked because it didn't work." They were one stop away from forcing the field goal and getting the advantage. Or if KC decided to go for it all, they just needed a stop. I've seen tons of 4th down stops this year in both college and NFL. I'm good with the decision regardless of captain hindsight second guessing. 

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6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

 

Yeah, I think it was a reasonable decision. You put pressure to score first, then stop them knowing they have 4 downs to play with, but if you can do that, you then  have a huge advantage needing just a field goal to win. What made the difference to me is that the defense was gassed defending a long drive at the end of regulation. There being a good strategic reason to take it first (getting the first sudden death possession if you take care of business and possibly having 2 possessions to opponents 1) the defense needing rest is a good reason to take the ball first. I'll never agree with "the decision sucked because it didn't work." They were one stop away from forcing the field goal and getting the advantage. Or if KC decided to go for it all, they just needed a stop. I've seen tons of 4th down stops this year in both college and NFL. I'm good with the decision regardless of captain hindsight second guessing. 

Nah it was 100% stupid and all the videos and clips coming out prove it was and that Shanahan himself didn’t even know that KC gets a possession. 
 

Also there was a long break between end of regulation and start of OT because of commercials and coin toss. 
 

Always go defense first in a guaranteed possession game. That way you know what you have to get to win whether it be a field goals, TD, or 2 pt conversion after a TD and have that 2 pt conversion on your play sheet and work on it. Chiefs were going for it no matter what if they had ties with a TD instead of win. 

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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14 minutes ago, 'stache said:

 

Yeah, I think it was a reasonable decision. You put pressure to score first, then stop them knowing they have 4 downs to play with, but if you can do that, you then  have a huge advantage needing just a field goal to win. What made the difference to me is that the defense was gassed defending a long drive at the end of regulation. There being a good strategic reason to take it first (getting the first sudden death possession if you take care of business and possibly having 2 possessions to opponents 1) the defense needing rest is a good reason to take the ball first. I'll never agree with "the decision sucked because it didn't work." They were one stop away from forcing the field goal and getting the advantage. Or if KC decided to go for it all, they just needed a stop. I've seen tons of 4th down stops this year in both college and NFL. I'm good with the decision regardless of captain hindsight second guessing. 

It was the right decision.  I question why the hell the Chiefs thought otherwise.

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7 minutes ago, WBT said:

It was the right decision.  I question why the hell the Chiefs thought otherwise.

Because it wasn’t the right decision and Shanahan didn’t even know the chiefs were guaranteed a possession. It completely changes how you call the game having second possession vs 1st

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13 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Because it wasn’t the right decision and Shanahan didn’t even know the chiefs were guaranteed a possession. It completely changes how you call the game having second possession vs 1st

bullshit

 

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If Shanahan really didn't know the rules, that should get you fired. I know he won't be but that is embarrassing there was still so much confusion between the players about the playoff OT rules. It's been in place for 2 years now. I get this was the first time a playoff game in 2 years has went into OT but still no excuse. KC's players knew exactly what they wanted to do and had a plan.

KC absolutely should have went for 2 if SF happened to score a TD and KC matched them back. I feel more confident with scoring from 2 yards out vs stopping SF from a FG on a 3rd possession. Both defenses were worn down by this point. They weren't stopping the other team from FG range.

I know Dan Campbell is a meathead moron at times, but I feel he would have went for it on 4th down on at least or maybe both 4th downs on their final 2 possessions. FGs weren't winning that game and SF's offense had enough weapons to gain the 4-5 yards they needed to keep the drive going. Had they picked up the 4th down on their last possession of regulation, KC only has 2 timeouts left and SF can run the game clock way down to kick a game winning FG with very little time left and might have picked up another 1st down to completely end the game on a final kick. 

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And for Wilks getting fired, I think this call might have been the nail in his coffin. Shanahan even called a timeout earlier to overrule a defensive call he didn't like so it seems the trust isn't there anymore. Romo even questioned what the hell Wilks was doing. You send a blitz like this that doesn't even affect the play and the DBs are playing a full 10 yards off on a 3rd and 6 in OT. Look how many WRs are getting a free release. The mesh route was an easy big gain with that defensive call. A call you should know is coming as KC loves to call it.

 

929d7vwf5mic1.jpeg

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The single best way to control the game is to not only score the TD first but go for two. If that happens you control the remainder of the game. If you’re convinced the other guy goes for two if you possess it first, then it’s marginal difference in the two point play whether your offense or defense. I do believe most teams feel confident their O can convert the two. So let your O be the first to go for it.

There is absolutely nothing to say the team getting the ball first cannot play similarly as though they get it last. You can pretty easily do that once you hit midfield or so. So again 4th and 4 on the KC 9, go for it. If you miss it, they still have to travel 50 yards to get a 68% chance of Butker kicking the winner.

Imagine the hell Shanahan gets foregoing that FG. But that was probably the worse decision in OT from a retrospective look.

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Yes, the 49ers D played great during the Super Bowl. Wilks wasn't fired for the Super Bowl. He was fired because he inherited a better personnel package than last year and the defense regressed mightily, especially against the run.

Mid way through the season, Wilks was told he had to get out of the box and coach on the sideline, likely so Shanahan could babysit his calls. The trust was never there.

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46 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

And for Wilks getting fired, I think this call might have been the nail in his coffin. Shanahan even called a timeout earlier to overrule a defensive call he didn't like so it seems the trust isn't there anymore. Romo even questioned what the hell Wilks was doing. You send a blitz like this that doesn't even affect the play and the DBs are playing a full 10 yards off on a 3rd and 6 in OT. Look how many WRs are getting a free release. The mesh route was an easy big gain with that defensive call. A call you should know is coming as KC loves to call it.

 

929d7vwf5mic1.jpeg

Imagine firing a DC for a call(s) made in the Super Bowl, where is defense kept Mahomes in check and held him and the Chiefs to 19 total points in the game which should have been enough except the HC(OC) called a chickenshit game himself, especially in the 3rd Q, and couldn't generate enough offense to win a winnable game. I like Kyle, but firing Wilks was a chicken shit move. 

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1 minute ago, SarkAfterDark said:

Imagine firing a DC for a call(s) made in the Super Bowl, where is defense kept Mahomes in check and held him and the Chiefs to 19 total points in the game which should have been enough except the HC(OC) called a chickenshit game himself, especially in the 3rd Q, and couldn't generate enough offense to win a winnable game. I like Kyle, but firing Wilks was a chicken shit move. 

He wasn't fired for the Super Bowl. He was fired for the previous 4 months of poor play for the level of player he had available.

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Dan Quinn got promoted after the worst playoff performance of any defense I’ve ever seen at any level in my entire life. At least the Falcons defense was good for the first half in that Super Bowl. Nothing makes sense anymore. Lane Kiffin might be the next pope.

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6 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

He wasn't fired for the Super Bowl. He was fired for the previous 4 months of poor play for the level of player he had available.

I was responding to the post I quoted. Also his defense averaged 17.5 points a game in scoring defense. That is pretty fucking good for 4 months of poor play.

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1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Because it wasn’t the right decision and Shanahan didn’t even know the chiefs were guaranteed a possession. It completely changes how you call the game having second possession vs 1st

This is a prime exhibit of why the internet is bad dumb people. They read dumb shit from multiple other morons and piece it together to create absolutely supreme stupidity to spread outside of their near empty heads. 

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2 minutes ago, gernblansten said:

This is a prime exhibit of why the internet is bad dumb people. They read dumb shit from multiple other morons and piece it together to create absolutely supreme stupidity to spread outside of their near empty heads. 

If multiple other morons are 49ers players and Shanahan then sure. 

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11 minutes ago, SarkAfterDark said:

I was responding to the post I quoted. Also his defense averaged 17.5 points a game in scoring defense. That is pretty fucking good for 4 months of poor play.

It's fine but for the players he has, it's pedestrian especially compared to 2022. And most of the slip was on the running side of the ball, something an offensive minded head coach is going to go nuts over. 

I watched every game intently (Niners fan) - he rarely stunted, rarely blitzed, and was soft against the run. He ran a bend but don't break D. That's not going to fly with any offensive minded HC.

Edited by dieucla98
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12 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

If multiple other morons are 49ers players and Shanahan then sure. 

Jesus. He explained after the game how he met with the analytics staff before the playoffs to figure out what to do if they got into overtime in the playoffs. There have been countless articles explaining it. The fact the information was out immediately after the game and is in print all over the place and you somehow decide in your head that Shanahan didn’t know the rules is really an incredible accomplishment. I don’t expect you to actually read and understand, but here you go:

 "It's just something we talked about," Shanahan said in his postgame news conference. "None of us have a ton of experience with [the new overtime rules]. But we went through all the analytics and talked to those guys. We just thought it would be better. We wanted the ball third. If both teams matched and scored, we wanted to be the ones who had the chance to go win. So got that field goal, so knew we had to hold them to at least a field goal and if we did, we thought it was in our hands after that."

https://vms.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-super-bowl-49ers-kyle-shanahan-explains-decision-to-take-the-ball-first-to-start-overtime-vs-chiefs/
 

Here’s another: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/02/12/super-bowl-overtime-kyle-shanahan/

You and any other folks claiming there is a right or wrong decision are just simply ignoring the facts. Which sums up my point. The internet allows dumbshits to spread their stupidity to other dumbshits and nod their heads in affirmation thinking they’re right. 

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Ah, so the CIA operation goes back 3 full Super Bowl seasons?  This shit goes straight to the top!  Somebody queue up the Charlie Day meme from "Always Sunny."  Plus what does a Chief do with an Arrowhead?  He HOLDS it, right?  And Travis holds on to Taylor and the 49ers DC can't hold on to his job.  Man, this is some deep, deep stuff.  I mean, you ever look at a dollar bill man?  George Washington, he was way into that shit.  And the cult was in aliens man.  

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30 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

It's fine but for the players he has, it's pedestrian especially compared to 2022. And most of the slip was on the running side of the ball, something an offensive minded head coach is going to go nuts over. 

I watched every game intently (Niners fan) - he rarely stunted, rarely blitzed, and was soft against the run. He ran a bend but don't break D. That's not going to fly with any offensive minded HC.

They went from 277 PA to 289 PA from '22 - '23 the latter still good for 3rd among all defenses and still <20ppg. But that is "pedestrian" yea ok. I don't really care about all that other stuff, there was maybe 2 games all season his defense didn't play well enough to win the game. And maybe his offensive minded coach should put more points on the game when it counts and this 49ers team and fanbase wouldn't be imploding right now. 

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20 minutes ago, SarkAfterDark said:

They went from 277 PA to 289 PA from '22 - '23 the latter still good for 3rd among all defenses and still <20ppg. But that is "pedestrian" yea ok. I don't really care about all that other stuff, there was maybe 2 games all season his defense didn't play well enough to win the game. And maybe his offensive minded coach should put more points on the game when it counts and this 49ers team and fanbase wouldn't be imploding right now. 

If you're just going to cherry pick misleading stats and ignore the rest, then this is going to be pointless discussion.

 

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10 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

If you're just going to cherry pick misleading stats and ignore the rest, then this is going to be pointless discussion.

 

Lmao citing ppg against, is cherry picking a stat? What is a more important stat for a defense?

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1 minute ago, SarkAfterDark said:

Lmao citing ppg against, is cherry picking a stat? What is a more important stat for a defense?

Advanced metrics are far better, such as EPA if we're on the PPG train of thought (would hope that was obvious). #1 to #12 YoY in EPA. Pedestrian especially given talent. 

I'm guessing in most every stat, the 49ers regressed on D and that's with more talent on the roster YoY.

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4 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

 

I mean thats fucking bullshit.  their defense only gave up 25 points total in 5 quarters, had four 3 & out's another 4 & out and intercepted the ball at the Chiefs 44, helped force 5 fucking fumbles, including one they recovered at their own 8.

 

I mean, the 49ers defense was a main fucking reason that game was tied at 19 going into the  OT.

 

that being said, sounds like Dallas should hire him

and 7 of those points came when KC recovered a miffed punt at the SF 16 yard line. 

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Imagine firing a DC for a call(s) made in the Super Bowl, where is defense kept Mahomes in check and held him and the Chiefs to 19 total points in the game which should have been enough except the HC(OC) called a chickenshit game himself, especially in the 3rd Q, and couldn't generate enough offense to win a winnable game. I like Kyle, but firing Wilks was a chicken shit move. 
I'm sure it was much more than this one game. Doesn't seem like they trusted him any longer and this defense isn't even close to what it used to be, yet all the talent is still there. But this one game put the final nail in his coffin.

The 4th qtr plus overtime counts. Sure, they held KC in check for a lot of the game but these games are longer than 40min. His defense was Cowboys level junk to end that game. Go back to the 2nd and 14 sequence for KC in overtime after the running backwards blunder. They immediately give up an 8 yard catch to put them in a 3rd and 6 with two downs to get it. Then his call on that 3rd and 6 is the picture I posted. And after that? KC was marched down their throat for an easy score.

Go back to the last drive to tie it in regulation. They let Kelce gain about 25 to 30 yards to not only give them a chip shot to tie, but damn near won it without needing overtime.

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3 hours ago, dieucla98 said:

Advanced metrics are far better, such as EPA if we're on the PPG train of thought (would hope that was obvious). #1 to #12 YoY in EPA. Pedestrian especially given talent. 

I'm guessing in most every stat, the 49ers regressed on D and that's with more talent on the roster YoY.

Did EPA result in them giving up more than 20 points a game? No, then who gives a fuck about that nerdy ass stat. This coming from someone who tried to accuse me of cherry picking stats.

1 hour ago, Vic Mackey said:

I'm sure it was much more than this one game. Doesn't seem like they trusted him any longer and this defense isn't even close to what it used to be, yet all the talent is still there. But this one game put the final nail in his coffin.

The 4th qtr plus overtime counts. Sure, they held KC in check for a lot of the game but these games are longer than 40min. His defense was Cowboys level junk to end that game. Go back to the 2nd and 14 sequence for KC in overtime after the running backwards blunder. They immediately give up an 8 yard catch to put them in a 3rd and 6 with two downs to get it. Then his call on that 3rd and 6 is the picture I posted. And after that? KC was marched down their throat for an easy score.

Go back to the last drive to tie it in regulation. They let Kelce gain about 25 to 30 yards to not only give them a chip shot to tie, but damn near won it without needing overtime.
 

The defense isn’t in that position if Kyle’s side of the ball takes care of business. Sure the defense wasn’t as good as last year but it was still a damn good defense. 

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7 hours ago, SarkAfterDark said:

Did EPA result in them giving up more than 20 points a game? No, then who gives a fuck about that nerdy ass stat. This coming from someone who tried to accuse me of cherry picking stats.

You're cherry picking parts of my post now. Read the last paragraph. Pick your stat. The Niners D regressed almost down the board. (Edit: went and actually looked, passing D was slightly better, run D way worse, overall worse... again, with better players this year).

And if you still think PPG is a better determination of defensive effectiveness than advanced stats like EPA, then you don't understand stats. PPG is also a measure of your opponents offensive effectiveness. EPA at least attempts to adjust for that to isolate the defense. Sorry it's too "nerdy" for you to wrap your head around.

Edited by dieucla98
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