Super Bowl LVII - Las Vegas

[hook me 2092]

13 hours ago, Had Enough said:

The single best way to control the game is to not only score the TD first but go for two. If that happens you control the remainder of the game. If you’re convinced the other guy goes for two if you possess it first, then it’s marginal difference in the two point play whether your offense or defense. I do believe most teams feel confident their O can convert the two. So let your O be the first to go for it.

There is absolutely nothing to say the team getting the ball first cannot play similarly as though they get it last. You can pretty easily do that once you hit midfield or so. So again 4th and 4 on the KC 9, go for it. If you miss it, they still have to travel 50 yards to get a 68% chance of Butker kicking the winner.

Imagine the hell Shanahan gets foregoing that FG. But that was probably the worse decision in OT from a retrospective look.

This is the only way taking the ball first makes sense to me unless you're just not worried about the other teams offense at all. Any other option and you're letting the other team have the first crack at winning the game. They may not decide to go for 2 should they only be down by 1 after scoring a TD, but the opportunity is there & every team has a 2 point play or 2 that they can go to & if you just watched your defense give up a TD then that probably influences your decision even more.

"But the defense was gassed" - The defense was on the field for less than 2 minutes on the final drive in the 4th. If they were "gassed" it was because they had played an entire game & that wasn't going to change with one drive anyways. Even their 8 minute drive didn't make the defense look any better once they took the field. "The defense had held them in check most of the game" - All the more reason to give them the ball first & not let them have 4 downs to get a first down every time. Also, it's fucking Mahomes, you're not going to keep him down forever. "We would get 1st crack at sudden death IF we were tied" then call a better play on 3rd & 4 and go for it on 4th & 4. Make them drive 50 yards for a long FG or 60 yards for an easier FG but only have 3 downs to do it instead of 4.

It was a bad decision in the moment & it's a bad decision now. It looks worse when the Chiefs players said "we talked about the new rules every week" vs the 9er players having no clue. I'm sure Shanahan knew, but the optics are bad when comparing the players. There's no "captain hindsight" here, I was shocked when they made the decision & I was completely unshocked at how it played out (other than them kicking the FG instead of going for it).

[Had Enough 2079]

Obviously we’re talking opinion here. Whatever was chosen was not a sure fire thing. So honestly any choice can be justifiable.

Basically what you’re saying is that you think Mahomes is scoring a TD. If you give them the ball first and if they score a TD, go for 2 and get it. Then the 49ers are behind the 8 ball. 4th and 1, maybe 2 anywhere on the field, Reid is probably going for it. Had the Chiefs been 4th and 8 from the SF 25 down 3, they are likely kicking the FG. If they get the ball first with same down and distance, they’re likely kicking the FG. It’s not as though every single 4th down decision would be made differently simply because KC got the ball last.

I’d also say that anyone that made up their mind and never considered that the 49ers could score the TD and get the 2 pointer first has a major shortcoming in their thought process. Going with the assumption that the second possession is the only one that allows for 4 down territory is wrong too and ignores the way football is played today.

[CustersDoctor 584]

On 2/12/2024 at 8:04 AM, BurntOrange&White said:

He didn’t even play his rookie year. That’s part of the luck he had. He sure as fuck wasn’t a great QB coming out of Tech. He had intangibles but he was basically every tech QB ever at that point. Reid 100% developed him when he was back to Alex smith as a rookie. 

He started game 16 of his rookie year and looked amazing. All the KC fans and especially the KC press core knew they had something special. In the post game press conference the first question was something like, "What did you think of Patrick Mahomes amazing performance?" Reid replied, "He ruined a lot of good plays tonight." It is my contention that the main growth by PM is his first priority is to run the play as it is called, Execute first, improvise second. 1. Reid was willing to tell PM, "You ruined a lot of good plays tonight." 2. PM is extremely coachable. 3. The main bad habit PM learned at Tech was while at Tech from the moment the ball was snapped he was running for his life. The line was absolutely terrible. So he'd take the snap, run for his life, then throw the ball. The play call didn't really matter, his first objective was to run for his life. It took about 4 seasons for him to abandon this habit.

[Dutchrudder 11136]

If I'm SF, and I have that defense, I definitely want the ball first. Ideally score a Touchdown and kick the xp.  That forces KC to drive for the TD, and they have to get the 2pt conversion if they want to win. If they opt for the XP, then I only need a field goal to win.  

Either way, I think you can make the argument for either team to take first or second possession in OT. I don't think it's fair to criticize Shanahan over it, it's his job to direct the team and execute his strategy. It really doesn't matter if the players understand all the rules, they need to do their jobs. 

And on that subject, Hardaman, the guy who scored the game winning TD in OT didn't have a clue that KC won the game when he scored. So a lot of good all those OT rules meetings did for KC...  

[CustersDoctor 584]

On 2/12/2024 at 9:40 AM, Surly Bevo said:

On the OT decision is getting the ball on a potential third possession better than giving a team (and especially a QB like Mahommes) another down in the second possession?  I don't know but that is an implication

Kansas City has made it clear that IF the 49ers had scored a TD then KC of course would have to match the TD and that they would have gone for two. The analytics on that decision are simple. You have a better chance of getting the two point conversion than you have keeping SF out of field goal range. Would have been fantastically compelling to see KC go for two with everything on the line.

[CustersDoctor 584]

On 2/14/2024 at 7:24 AM, slorch said:

The argument is not that Reid didn't develop Mahomes.  The notion that there wasn't substance to work with is ludicrous.  Baker fucking Mayfield saw it before PMII ever set foot on campus as a player.  We as fans knew it too.  Did we know he would become the face of the NFL?  Of course not.

He was a bad motherfucker in college.  He just had one of the worst defenses on his squad that many of us had ever seen.  His offensive line also precipitated the 'run for your life' mode that Patrick still uses now. In 2015, Tech scored 52, 35, 27, and  53 in LOSSES to ranked teams.  In the Texas Bowl, LSU thumped Tech 56-27, but in the 3rd quarter, when Tech pulled to within 21-20, LSU started pulling their fake injury bullshit to disrupt Tech and then played keep away/ feed Fournette the ball to keep it out of Mahomes' hands.  After the game, LSU sure was praising Mahomes plenty.

In 2016, in their losses,  Tech scored 55 @ AzState, 38@ K-State, 17 vs WVU, 59 vs OU, 37 vs Texas, 44 @ Okie Lite, and 10 @ Iowa State.  It is a far bigger indictment of Kingsbury than anyone else that those teams didn't win more.

The argument is not that Reid hasn't developed Mahomes or that the relationship isn't symbiotic; but rather that Mahomes is just some JAG that lucked into the spot.  Again, that notion is laughably idiotic.

Mahomes knew his best NFL route to greatness was with Reid. He's basically said that he sandbagged workouts with teams with top ten picks, particularly with Da Bears.

[Vic Mackey 47012]

1 hour ago, Dutchrudder said:

If I'm SF, and I have that defense, I definitely want the ball first. Ideally score a Touchdown and kick the xp.  That forces KC to drive for the TD, and they have to get the 2pt conversion if they want to win. If they opt for the XP, then I only need a field goal to win.  

Either way, I think you can make the argument for either team to take first or second possession in OT. I don't think it's fair to criticize Shanahan over it, it's his job to direct the team and execute his strategy. It really doesn't matter if the players understand all the rules, they need to do their jobs. 

And on that subject, Hardaman, the guy who scored the game winning TD in OT didn't have a clue that KC won the game when he scored. So a lot of good all those OT rules meetings did for KC...  

I also think Shanahan saw this defense wearing down as the game went on and KC was moving up and down the field. They were just on the field and gave up the game tying FG and damn near a TD to lose the game. He probably had more confidence in his offense at that point than his defense and wanted to give them a breather. The offense had been moving the ball pretty well in the late 3rd and 4th. And moved it great in OT but the last 2 drives stalled out on 3rd and settled for FGs.

After settling for 3, it was now their defense's job to at the very least, hold KC to only 3 and now you get the ball back sudden death style only needing 3 to win, which they showed they could easily do. SF's defense had plenty of chances to do just that or even stop them completely and win the game. On that 4th and 1, Bosa slanted down way too hard (as he had been all game) and left a wide open lane for Mahomes to big up a big gain for the easy 1st down. Had he not committed so much, Mahomes probably doesn't have that type of lane and might be forced to make some type of pass that he probably didn't want to. Not sure if SF thought they would be running it up the middle or not but you have to contain to the outside because Mahomes has shown time and time again he will take off on you. He's had some huge runs in his Super Bowl games.

Edited February 15 by Vic Mackey

[Pam Cummings 9639]

1 hour ago, Dutchrudder said:

If I'm SF, and I have that defense, I definitely want the ball first. Ideally score a Touchdown and kick the xp.  That forces KC to drive for the TD, and they have to get the 2pt conversion if they want to win. If they opt for the XP, then I only need a field goal to win.  

Either way, I think you can make the argument for either team to take first or second possession in OT. I don't think it's fair to criticize Shanahan over it, it's his job to direct the team and execute his strategy. It really doesn't matter if the players understand all the rules, they need to do their jobs. 

And on that subject, Hardaman, the guy who scored the game winning TD in OT didn't have a clue that KC won the game when he scored. So a lot of good all those OT rules meetings did for KC...  

He knew. Scoring the game winning TD in the super bowl can put a person in disbelief.

[TreatyOak 16311]

[hook me 2092]

53 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

Obviously we’re talking opinion here. Whatever was chosen was not a sure fire thing. So honestly any choice can be justifiable.

Basically what you’re saying is that you think Mahomes is scoring a TD. If you give them the ball first and if they score a TD, go for 2 and get it. Then the 49ers are behind the 8 ball. 4th and 1, maybe 2 anywhere on the field, Reid is probably going for it. Had the Chiefs been 4th and 8 from the SF 25 down 3, they are likely kicking the FG. If they get the ball first with same down and distance, they’re likely kicking the FG. It’s not as though every single 4th down decision would be made differently simply because KC got the ball last.

I’d also say that anyone that made up their mind and never considered that the 49ers could score the TD and get the 2 pointer first has a major shortcoming in their thought process. Going with the assumption that the second possession is the only one that allows for 4 down territory is wrong too and ignores the way football is played today.

Assuming you're quoting me, but even if not. I'm not assuming Mahomes is scoring a TD since they hadn't done it all game aside from the time they got the ball after the punt hit the 9ers players leg. What I am assuming is that, if it was a viable option, the Chiefs were going to win it or lose it with Mahomes and not their defense, even though their defense had been exceptional all year. Shanahan played for the 3rd possession but the Chiefs never had any intention of letting it get to the 3rd possession. Acting as if Shanahan would go for 2 had they scored a TD is pointless. He wasn't ballsy enough to go for it on 4th and 4 inside the 10 but he was going to be ballsy enough to go for 2? I don't buy it. That said, had Purdy thrown it to Aiyuk on the last drive of the 4th instead of going to Jennings they would have gotten the first down and ran out the rest of the clock and we (probably) wouldn't be having this discussion.

[Had Enough 2079]

Assuming you're quoting me, but even if not. I'm not assuming Mahomes is scoring a TD since they hadn't done it all game aside from the time they got the ball after the punt hit the 9ers players leg. What I am assuming is that, if it was a viable option, the Chiefs were going to win it or lose it with Mahomes and not their defense, even though their defense had been exceptional all year. Shanahan played for the 3rd possession but the Chiefs never had any intention of letting it get to the 3rd possession. Acting as if Shanahan would go for 2 had they scored a TD is pointless. He wasn't ballsy enough to go for it on 4th and 4 inside the 10 but he was going to be ballsy enough to go for 2? I don't buy it. That said, had Purdy thrown it to Aiyuk on the last drive of the 4th instead of going to Jennings they would have gotten the first down and ran out the rest of the clock and we (probably) wouldn't be having this discussion.

Yes, a lot what ifs. You’re right I don’t think the 49ers go for 2 if they score the TD. They didn’t know Reid’s strategy. Or at least I’m not sure that was referenced leading up to the game. Not all coaches are going for 2 in that scenario though.

But if you tell me it’s pointless to argue that SF goes for 2 is just as irrelevant as saying Reid would go for 2. Neither happened. We don’t know how that plays out. Certainly neither scenario impacted the outcome.

To me, not going on 4th and 4 is worse than taking the ball first. You are saying the Chiefs never had any intention of it getting to the 3rd possession. You may well be right. But you just stated you weren’t assuming Mahomes was scoring a TD. That’s counter to Shanahan trusting his defense and the assumption that Reid will allow a 3rd possession.

When Shanahan decided to receive, all options, all outcomes were on the table. He had to choose based on that. Anything subsequent to that was irrelevant as to whether it was a good or reasonable decision. Based on the outcome, it was the wrong decision.

Anyway, good discussion. You’re welcome to the final word. I do think future strategies may be different based on how this played out.

[Dutchrudder 11136]

2 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

He knew. Scoring the game winning TD in the super bowl can put a person in disbelief.

C"an I tell a quick funny story?” said Mahomes, “I threw a touchdown to this dude (Hardman) to end the game. He looked at me and had no idea, and I said dude, we just won the Super Bowl. He had no idea, and I’m like, he didn’t even celebrate in the beginning. What are we doing?”

https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/2024/02/12/kansas-city-chiefs-mecole-hardman-didnt-know-game-was-over-after-overtime-touchdown-super-bowl-lviii/

 

Sure sounds like he didn't know how it worked, but like I said, it doesn't matter. He's going to make the same play and catch the ball regardless. It's dumb to criticize Shanahan for not having classes on OT rules, when it doesn't impact the player's performance.

[CustersDoctor 584]

On 2/13/2024 at 10:31 AM, Vic Mackey said:

.

The dumbest part of these critiques is that they were NOT based on observation. 1.0PM was never had bad accuracy. Idiots thought he was inaccurate because the conventional belief was, "Since his feet aren't usually set, then the pass in going to be off target". The fact is, it doesn't matter how his feet are positioned he throws the ball on target. Nobody ever downgrades a shortstop for not planting his feet after digging out a ground ball and throwing to first, the only thing that matters is did the ball get to the right place at the right time. 2. He also didn't bail early from the pocket early while at Tech, there was never a pocket for him to bail from. 3. "his lack of field vision", What the heck? No way they ever watched any of his film and thought he had bad field vision.

[Texzilla58 4732]

I also think Shanahan saw this defense wearing down as the game went on and KC was moving up and down the field. They were just on the field and gave up the game tying FG and damn near a TD to lose the game. He probably had more confidence in his offense at that point than his defense and wanted to give them a breather. The offense had been moving the ball pretty well in the late 3rd and 4th. And moved it great in OT but the last 2 drives stalled out on 3rd and settled for FGs.
After settling for 3, it was now their defense's job to at the very least, hold KC to only 3 and now you get the ball back sudden death style only needing 3 to win, which they showed they could easily do. SF's defense had plenty of chances to do just that or even stop them completely and win the game. On that 4th and 1, Bosa slanted down way too hard (as he had been all game) and left a wide open lane for Mahomes to big up a big gain for the easy 1st down. Had he not committed so much, Mahomes probably doesn't have that type of lane and might be forced to make some type of pass that he probably didn't want to. Not sure if SF thought they would be running it up the middle or not but you have to contain to the outside because Mahomes has shown time and time again he will take off on you. He's had some huge runs in his Super Bowl games.

I can buy that he wanted to rest his defense that was out there forever. But you have to score a TD. So when they got close I thought the playcalling sucked and you gotta go for it on 4th down.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5792]

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[TreatyOak 16311]

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[hook me 2092]

19 hours ago, Texzilla58 said:

I can buy that he wanted to rest his defense that was out there forever. But you have to score a TD. So when they got close I thought the playcalling sucked and you gotta go for it on 4th down.

I don't understand why or how this so quickly became a fact for everyone defending Shanahan's decision. The Chiefs had drives of 1.22, 1.38, 4, 1.27, 5.36, & 1.53 in the second half. The 5.36 drive came immediately after the 9ers held the ball for 5+ minutes of game time + the intermission between the 3rd & 4th quarters & the 9ers last drive of regulation lasted just under 4 minutes. In other words, they weren't out there "forever" & even though they were just defending during the 2 minute drill they still had the time from the kick to the kickoff to catch their breath.

[Carl Spackler 3479]

Interesting article by Bill Barnwell of ESPN about the decision to take the ball first in OT.  

The TL:DR version = Barnwell is more critical of Shanahan's decision not to go for it on 4th and 4 on the opening drive of OT than he is of the decision to take the ball first.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39541332/49ers-chiefs-super-bowl-2024-decision-coin-toss-kyle-shanahan-mistake

[TonyTexas 10508]