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Elon Musk: Officially a fraud and piece of shit. Official or unofficial war criminal?


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10 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

To be clear, SMS 2FA is trash and should not be used by any organization. Not even remotely secure in any serious way. It's certainly at least arguably better than having no 2FA at all, but it should be avoided if possible. 

Of course, instead of simply doing the right thing, Elon had to roll the change into yet another grift. The clown show must go on.

You have a strong opinion about 2FA but

1. It's far, far superior than simple password protection.

2. The only reason Space Karen is turning it off is undoubtedly because he saw twitter's bill for sending sms verification in some countries where it still costs a lot, and is implementing a change in true scammer form.

<My god the cost of auto pilot has gone from 8k to 15k even as anyone paying any attention can tell it's never going to happen? I can kind of imagine being taken it by the initial hype when known facts were thin. But now that it's clear the entire thing is a scam he was able to basically double the price because a couple hundred thousand tesla buyers are so dim. I can only LOL.>

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10 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

I will also say that anyone who paid for FSD and is now pissed that it hasn’t been fully delivered yet is an idiot. 

So you think knowing you were getting fleeced for 8 grand makes you smarter than the people who didn’t think they were being lied to? I guess believe whatever makes you feel better.

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1 hour ago, Captainant said:

The Dunning-Krueger in this thread is remarkable. We use WAY more senses than just our vision while driving, and the tech to fuse multiple types of sensors (camera/raster, lidar , radar, microphone/acoustic, feedback from the vehicle, etc) is very much still emerging and developing. 

No doubt that genuine full self drive a solvable problem, but Elmo and Tesla sure as shit haven't put in the work to solve it, and the cars themselves don't have the compute or sensor coverage to ACTUALLY deliver on that promise. 

The genuinely fully self driving cars that ARE out there are extremely limited in scope and don't yet have a general solution. I've ridden in a driverless car on the Vegas strip with an engineer in the passenger seat with their hand on a big red button, and while it worked great, ONLY worked on a 5 mile section of the strip. It's insanely difficult to craft a generalized solution when its a small scope, even moreso when you're trying to cover every possible edge case in the real world. 

Sorry you wasted your money, Guadaloopy. You got got by a marketing claim

Equally important to sensory input is anticipating what may happen around you in real time and that is heuristic. I don’t know how AI can replicate that

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11 minutes ago, Pasken said:

So you think knowing you were getting fleeced for 8 grand makes you smarter than the people who didn’t think they were being lied to? I guess believe whatever makes you feel better.

I knew going in that I was buying an option for a future capability with interim capability along the way.   This was very clear from the start.  Anyone who didn’t realize this when they purchased and is now bitching about it is   an idiot.

I don’t feel fleeced because my car actually DOES have self-driving capability.   I put in a destination and it takes me there.  From time to time I need to intervene, but it does most of the work.  It’s not level 5, but it does have a significant capability.
 

 

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7 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Equally important to sensory input is anticipating what may happen around you in real time and that is heuristic. I don’t know how AI can replicate that

You'd honestly be surprised. The whole point of training an ML model to drive is teaching it how to predict how it's actions now will translate to a future state, and then doing that many many times a second. Training that model is intensely difficult, involves a massive amount of data collection (both real world and synthetic with simulations), and finally a titanic amount of compute to actually incorporate that data into a useful weights and biased for that model.  

To cover the case of reacting to cars ahead of you, you're gonna need a shitload of data to cover that special edge case. It's doable, because us meatbags can do it with just our single perspective while driving. We just haven't trained an ML model how to do that with a car yet. 

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17 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

FSD has always been sold as a future capability.  You buy an option now at a lower price for a future capability (level 5 autonomy) that will cost a lot more when fully developed.  In the meantime, you get some cool additional functionality.  It's all about whether or not you believe that the capability will be developed during the life of that vehicle. 

Why will level 5 autonomy be so valuable when achieved?  You now own capital that can earn passive income as a robotaxi.  Personally, I think that this is a capability that will be achieved within the next half decade or so.  I'll buy a new car and then my FSD Model 3 can go off and work as a robotaxi while I do other things.  Once level 5 autonomy is achieved, an FSD vehicle could recoup the $15K cost in less than a year.  

My Model 3 is two years old.  I bought FSD when it was $8K.  My car has had FSD beta for the last 14 months.  My car can, in fact, drive without intervention from point A to B.  It's not perfect, which is why driver attention and at times intervention is required.  I don't feel cheated or duped, because I knew that I was buying an option (with some risk) that came with some interim capability, all of which I still have. 

I made a similar investment when I traded my cow for magic beans. As soon as they figure out how to sprout into a giant beanstalk, I’m going to climb it and steal a goose that lays golden eggs.

Edited by BrickHorn
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23 minutes ago, Captainant said:

You'd honestly be surprised. The whole point of training an ML model to drive is teaching it how to predict how it's actions now will translate to a future state, and then doing that many many times a second. Training that model is intensely difficult, involves a massive amount of data collection (both real world and synthetic with simulations), and finally a titanic amount of compute to actually incorporate that data into a useful weights and biased for that model.  

To cover the case of reacting to cars ahead of you, you're gonna need a shitload of data to cover that special edge case. It's doable, because us meatbags can do it with just our single perspective while driving. We just haven't trained an ML model how to do that with a car yet. 

I’m not talking about how you react to cars ahead of you but how you anticipate how they will interact with each other and predict how that may (not necessarily will) affect you, and adjust your actions accordingly. Heuristics rather than algorithms. Put a different way, is AI capable of intuition?

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20 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

I made a similar investment when I traded my cow for magic beans. As soon as they figure out how to sprout into a giant beanstalk, I’m going to climb it and steal a goose that lays golden eggs.

I don't think this is fair. I think GM's super cruise was like $4k at the time. FSD was $8k and arguably more capable, but more dangerous. Arbitrarily and out of my ass, let's say FSD was worth $5k at that time.

His point is that, as I follow it, beyond that Level 2+ functionality at the time, he took the gamble and bought an option for the incremental $3k cost that FSD would turn out to be what was promised by Musk.

That was a reasonable gamble, IMO, especially because many didn't know at the time that cameras would hit a wall -- which, however unlikely (very!), it's still possible they could pull a rabbit out of their hats -- and because Tesla, at the time, had positioned themselves as market leader.

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Captainant said:

You'd honestly be surprised. The whole point of training an ML model to drive is teaching it how to predict how it's actions now will translate to a future state, and then doing that many many times a second. Training that model is intensely difficult, involves a massive amount of data collection (both real world and synthetic with simulations), and finally a titanic amount of compute to actually incorporate that data into a useful weights and biased for that model.  

To cover the case of reacting to cars ahead of you, you're gonna need a shitload of data to cover that special edge case. It's doable, because us meatbags can do it with just our single perspective while driving. We just haven't trained an ML model how to do that with a car yet. 

11 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I’m not talking about how you react to cars ahead of you but how you anticipate how they will interact with each other and predict how that may (not necessarily will) affect you, and adjust your actions accordingly. Heuristics rather than algorithms. Put a different way, is AI capable of intuition?

It feels like to get to where a lot of people thought we'd be by now (thanks Jetsons!), if we have a bunch of self-driving cars on the road, they need to be talking to one another, announcing when they are making lane changes, turning, slowing down, etc.  We have that technology, or could build that in short order (transmitting simple directions), and it would make everybody safer and would provide some of that "intuition" we talk about.

But we would need a lot of the cars to be self-driving and all talking to one another.

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2 hours ago, choripan said:

I can see where you're coming from.

That said, my wife is *in* autonomous tech and EV. She sits on the board of and advises a few startups and the M-City initiative at the University of Michigan (pretty cool, if you want to click-through: https://mcity.umich.edu/). I am her test audience before she goes and speaks at conferences -- this includes South By a few years ago, shout out to Austin -- or publishes papers or whatever, so I have that spousal "you have to know about this shit because your wife is tits deep in it" thing going on.

In any case, the consensus in the industry is that there were two paths that companies took a few years ago.

Tesla's path was, more or less, a bet on cameras. This was cheap and quick to deploy, and allowed them to jump out to a head start. Consider that you can get a 1080p backup cam for like $20 on Amazon; imagine buying at scale. Anyway, consistent with Elon's patterns, he marketed the hell out of this, including the "vision" you mentioned above. However, it appears to be bearing out that a system founded upon cameras is easy to quickly build up to Level 2 or 2+, but then you hit a wall. This is why Tesla is no longer seriously advancing and is flailing to put together a new hardware stack in hopes that it can move the ball forward. It is unlikely that Tesla will ever reach Level 4 or 5 with its current approach and the consensus is that Tesla is too committed/down the path of to its current approach to pivot and recreate the software side for a more fulsome system.

The majority of the industry uses some combination of cameras, radar, lidar, etc. At first, many companies were well behind Tesla because of some combination of cost (prohibitive to deploy enough sensitive) and the software side (integrating the various sensor systems. Now, the cost of the hardware is plummeting (example: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-25/lidar-sensor-price-plunge-leads-to-orders-from-gm-volkswagen). Also, the physical size of a lot of these systems is shrinking and they're becoming easier to integrate. I wish I had my wife's slide deck showing the change, with the pic of the lidar from a few years back that looks like an old school police siren on top of the car to the little sensors that are coming online now. Anyway, between decreasing hardware costs and increasing hardware availability for the various sensor systems, and realizing the gains from all the investment that has gone into integrating multiple systems for higher-level automation, other players are now leap-frogging Tesla. This is why you see that MB just got their Level 3 approved and GM's Level 3 successor to Super Cruise is coming soon, why Ford's Blue Cruise is considered a leader now, etc.

Trying to think of a good analogy, but maybe it's like a sprinter racing a distance runner over a half-marathon. Tesla jumped out to a big lead but, with its camera-based approach, is not equipped for the long run. Meanwhile, the majority of the industry has been plugging along, saw Tesla jump out to a big lead the first 100 or 200 meters, but is now passing it.

This is why I love this website. Someone on here has a connection to anything and everything. 

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It feels like to get to where a lot of people thought we'd be by now (thanks Jetsons!), if we have a bunch of self-driving cars on the road, they need to be talking to one another, announcing when they are making lane changes, turning, slowing down, etc.  We have that technology, or could build that in short order (transmitting simple directions), and it would make everybody safer and would provide some of that "intuition" we talk about.

But we would need a lot of the cars to be self-driving and all talking to one another.

That’s the holy grail.  Wouldn’t need intuition because every car would know where every other car is and what they are doing next.  I don’t know how we get there, though.

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6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It feels like to get to where a lot of people thought we'd be by now (thanks Jetsons!), if we have a bunch of self-driving cars on the road, they need to be talking to one another, announcing when they are making lane changes, turning, slowing down, etc.  We have that technology, or could build that in short order (transmitting simple directions), and it would make everybody safer and would provide some of that "intuition" we talk about.

But we would need a lot of the cars to be self-driving and all talking to one another.

Yeah but when they get hacked and or become self aware /tinfoil

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1 hour ago, Chopper said:

You have a strong opinion about 2FA but

1. It's far, far superior than simple password protection.

2. The only reason Space Karen is turning it off is undoubtedly because he saw twitter's bill for sending sms verification in some countries where it still costs a lot, and is implementing a change in true scammer form.

I have a strong opinion because it's part of my job to implement stuff like that. SMS 2FA is certainly better than simple password protection in a vacuum, but it's also very insecure so the net benefit of it is arguable. There are other, much better 2FA methods available. I'm sure the reason for it you gave is probably accurate, but turning it off in favor of other 2FA methods would have actually been a good thing if it hadn't instead been rolled into another grift.

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26 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It feels like to get to where a lot of people thought we'd be by now (thanks Jetsons!), if we have a bunch of self-driving cars on the road, they need to be talking to one another, announcing when they are making lane changes, turning, slowing down, etc.  We have that technology, or could build that in short order (transmitting simple directions), and it would make everybody safer and would provide some of that "intuition" we talk about.

But we would need a lot of the cars to be self-driving and all talking to one another.

You can Google for more on this (first relevant result that came up for me and I have to go pick up the kids from Grandma's) but, uh, talk to your elected officials and the FCC .

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-senators-urge-telecom-agency-ok-use-connected-vehicle-spectrum-2023-02-13/

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I’m not talking about how you react to cars ahead of you but how you anticipate how they will interact with each other and predict how that may (not necessarily will) affect you, and adjust your actions accordingly. Heuristics rather than algorithms. Put a different way, is AI capable of intuition?

It feels like to get to where a lot of people thought we'd be by now (thanks Jetsons!), if we have a bunch of self-driving cars on the road, they need to be talking to one another, announcing when they are making lane changes, turning, slowing down, etc.  We have that technology, or could build that in short order (transmitting simple directions), and it would make everybody safer and would provide some of that "intuition" we talk about.
But we would need a lot of the cars to be self-driving and all talking to one another.

Bingo to both.
Great soccer players know where there opponents are going to move and feed the ball; great batters can feel what the next pitch is going to be, etc.
A shitload of my driving involves a subconscious “that car ahead just made a move that indicates he doesn’t know where he’s going/what he’s doing…expect him to make a sudden, stupid, dangerous move.” AI doesn’t yet know how to read that, and it’s going to take a while for it to get there. Cameras alone won’t get it there. The move may have been very subtle. It may be his head, looking all around, confused, while the car just slowed down a bit.
I wouldn’t trust a goddamn Elon Musk toaster at this point in time.
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31 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It feels like to get to where a lot of people thought we'd be by now (thanks Jetsons!), if we have a bunch of self-driving cars on the road, they need to be talking to one another, announcing when they are making lane changes, turning, slowing down, etc.  We have that technology, or could build that in short order (transmitting simple directions), and it would make everybody safer and would provide some of that "intuition" we talk about.

This is one aspect of self-driving infrastructure that I am disappointed to see that little is happening (as far as I can tell). If we have computers driving cars, it seems like it would be a really good idea to make it easy for the computers to figure out the situation. One aspect would be things like electronic lane markings. Maybe there could be cheap RFID tags along the roadside to help the cars figure out where and how many lanes there are. And also some way to electronically signal that a road is closed (maybe a giant sinkhole just opened up, or a truck carrying nitric acid just rolled over on the road ahead, or whatever) to make it easy for the self-driving cars to figure out the road is closed, and not have to e.g. notice red smoke clouds in the distance and realize that is a nitric acid spill. Adding some signals from each car so other cars can identify others would be part of this as well. I really hear very little about work in this direction.

Of course a full self-driving car needs to be able to deal with the absence of such help, but why not make some of the problem easier?

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2 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

I have a strong opinion because it's part of my job to implement stuff like that. SMS 2FA is certainly better than simple password protection in a vacuum, but it's also very insecure so the net benefit of it is arguable. There are other, much better 2FA methods available. I'm sure the reason for it you gave is probably accurate, but turning it off in favor of other 2FA methods would have actually been a good thing if it hadn't instead been rolled into another grift.

On twitter your username is open for the world to see. If a hacker only needs to crack the account's password, it's far, far less secure than 2fa. (Edit: and with space karen't new plan, unless you have that paid for blue check mark, it will be clear for the world to see that your account lacks any advanced protection. It will be a flashing arrow for any hacker.) Any idiot can try to guess or force a password when half the job is already done for them. The most vulnerable will be "legacy blues" who don't pay ransom to Space Karen to keep their blue check. Admittedly an authenticator option or requirement for all users would be ideal, and it's emblematic of Space Karen's lack of morality that he would leave an account vulnerable unless they pay him, but that's where we are.

The main point is there will be a lot more hacks going forward that are going to create quite the stir. Think for a moment about the "legacy blue check marks" whom space karen is purposely making highly vulnerable, and what will happen when someone hacks that account. It will make people long for the fake brand account "hacks" of last month.

Assuming someone is smart enough to not make public the email account they used to sign up for twitter, that makes things like phishing, sim spoofing or malware much more difficult to pull off. Correct me if I'm wrong because I'm certain you know more on a technical basis than I, but the remainder of the potential hacks are down to twitter's security (or perhaps a cell provider's security depending on the type of 2fa) and their ability to detect an attack.

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4 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

Appreciate the sympathy, but I’m good.  Took a flyer on level 5 and it may not work out.  But like I said, in the meantime I have a cool toy that I really enjoy.  

Let’s pass the peyote pipe and pretend like you’re a few years away from sending off your robotaxi to earn you money.

What do you think the value of that robotaxi is when there’s 1000s of others out there and the market no longer accounts from human labor hours?

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12 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Let’s pass the peyote pipe and pretend like you’re a few years away from sending off your robotaxi to earn you money.

What do you think the value of that robotaxi is when there’s 1000s of others out there and the market no longer accounts from human labor hours?

Tough question to answer specifically, but pretty sure more than $8K over the life of the vehicle.   If level 5 is reached by FSD within the next 5 years or so, I’m confident that the vehicle will more than recoup my initial outlay.  
 

That’s a big “if” at this point.  

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25 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

Tough question to answer specifically, but pretty sure more than $8K over the life of the vehicle.   If level 5 is reached by FSD within the next 5 years or so, I’m confident that the vehicle will more than recoup my initial outlay.  
 

That’s a big “if” at this point.  

Damn, I thought I was high this afternoon.

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32 minutes ago, texasdago said:

...and I still contend Betamax is superior to VHS

We had a betamax growing up. It sucked going to the video store and trying to rent a copy of a movie because there were dozens of copies for VHS but usually only one or two of betamax which were always checked out.

 

Probably why I ended up watching bloodsport so many times.

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Additional clarifications have been made. Apparently if you pay space karen $8 per month you may continue to use the less secure authentication method. But if you're a free user, you'll be forced to use the more secure form of authentication. Or just go without if it's too complicated for you (or if twitter breaks it, which seems more likely at this point.)

 

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Space karen's thoughts - "When did they start painting fire trucks with paint that makes them invisible? But anyway now that we know we'll just re-program our software. Of course, every fire department is going to have to equip their trucks with a $100 microchip we'll sell so that they'll show up on our autopilot. We'll make them a great deal on quantity though!"

 

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18 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

About that...

 

Elon loves him some free speech.

Dude buys a $44 billion website that's worth less than $10 billion.

And he spends time to fuck around with individual users that he's not happy about.

He's a fucking BBS Sysop from the 90s who would break into chat with people posting stuff he didn't like, or that he was trying to impress for some reason.

 

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19 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

It's OK Guadaloopy, I get ya. It took me a while to come to grips with the money I spent on HD-DVD hardware and media too.

My Panasonic HD-DVD player is a great way to upscale regular DVDs.  Except I can't output 4k.

And my Bladerunner HD DVD 5-disc special edition briefcase set is worth *checks eBay* half of what I paid for it in 2008.

helena bonham carter what GIF

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10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Dude buys a $44 billion website that's worth less than $10 billion.

And he spends time to fuck around with individual users that he's not happy about.

He's a fucking BBS Sysop from the 90s who would break into chat with people posting stuff he didn't like, or that he was trying to impress for some reason.

 

Elon is Campus Loop(y)?

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13 hours ago, Captainant said:

A faulty assumption and conflation of separate issues went into the above post.  

Nothing in that first article indicates that the Tesla was in FSD or autopilot.  It may have been, but that information is not known yet.   It’s complete speculation at this point and a little disingenuous to link it to the cases in the second article.   But I get it… this is a bash Elon thread   He has earned it, but not sure the cars have.

The second article is from August 2021 which is before FSD beta was even released.  This article references reports of accidents involving Tesla vehicles in autopilot, which is nothing more than lane-keeping with adaptive cruise control.  Tesla has made improvements to these systems and increased driver monitoring features when these systems are in use.  For example, you can no longer use these features without allowing access to the car’s internal camera to monitor driver engagement.    

When a driver intentionally misuses or bypasses safety features for assistive driving features, that is the driver’s fault.  

People have been misusing traditional cruise control and adaptive cruise control as long as these features have existed, which is before Tesla existed: https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/810981.pdf

For comparison, our second car is a Volvo XC90 PHEV with adaptive cruise control and lane-keeping.  Even though Volvo is a premier safety brand, it doesn’t have close to the driver monitoring features as my Tesla. I also don’t trust these features in the Volvo as much, because I have had it drop out of lane-keeping multiple times with no notification other than a non-obvious change in an indicator light with no haptic or audible alarm.    

I’m not stanning for Tesla, and certainly not for Elon. Just relaying my actual experience with these two vehicles.  

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21 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Dude buys a $44 billion website that's worth less than $10 billion.

And he spends time to fuck around with individual users that he's not happy about.

He's a fucking BBS Sysop from the 90s who would break into chat with people posting stuff he didn't like, or that he was trying to impress for some reason.

 

i mean it was easily worth >$20b when he actually purchased it...$44b was just an overpayment.

he has just absolutely driven it into the ground in literally every single part of the business. every single part of the TWTR business is worse off today than it was on 10/25.

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10 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

For example, you can no longer use these features without allowing access to the car’s internal camera to monitor driver engagement.    

If the ultimate failsafe provision is easily defeat-able that's definitely a problem with the manufacturer/design. The tesla interior cam's usefulness is an attempt by the company to shift liability from their own shitty FSD onto the driver. It also seems like anyone using FSD with the nanny cam engaged must have the patience and attentiveness of a driving school instructor taking a 16 year old out on the road for the first time. Not only must you pay full attention to the road, just as if you were driving yourself, you also have to be concerned with what your auto pilot is doing or asking for.

10 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

The second article is from August 2021 which is before FSD beta was even released.

I'm going to take a wag that the tesla that hit the broad side of a fire truck at 4 am two days ago did indeed have fsd engaged. There's a variety of reasons I think that's what the investigation will show but mainly it's because it happened at 4 am and we've seen that type of shit from tesla's fsd before.

I do love that somehow they've been able to put a beta and pre-beta version on the road in actual traffic, and its safety is based totally on cooked-up numbers.

Maybe that's why space karen has joined with the racists and qnuts who want to tear this country down. He senses Tesla is about to have its ass handed to it, and he's trying to politicize it as much as possible in order to stop it from happening.

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33 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Not only must you pay full attention to the road, just as if you were driving yourself, you also have to be concerned with what your auto pilot is doing or asking for.

You’ve just described every level 2 driver assist feature from every manufacturer on the road today.   
 

34 minutes ago, Chopper said:

I'm going to take a wag that the tesla that hit the broad side of a fire truck at 4 am two days ago did indeed have fsd engaged. There's a variety of reasons I think that's what the investigation will show but mainly it's because it happened at 4 am and we've seen that type of shit from tesla's fsd before.

It’s also just as likely that a drunk was behind the wheel of that Tesla because we’ve seen that type of shit from drunk drivers before.  Plenty of other drivers of other vehicles have slammed into emergency vehicles in the middle of the night.  Tesla just gets the press.  It’s textbook selection bias.  
 

 

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9 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

You’ve just described every level 2 driver assist feature from every manufacturer on the road today.  
 

 

Which other manufacturers use only cameras for autopilot? (edit - and please stop referring to internal microphones and cameras as part of the auto driving feature. Those are part of the "accident wasn't our fault" feature to help Tesla with liability.

Quote

It’s also just as likely that a drunk was behind the wheel of that Tesla because we’ve seen that type of shit from drunk drivers before.  Plenty of other drivers of other vehicles have slammed into emergency vehicles in the middle of the night.  Tesla just gets the press.  It’s textbook selection bias.  

Like I said, we'll see. Normally when a driver falls asleep the car doesn't stay in its lane. But that's just opinion/impression. I'm sure space karen already knows if auto pilot was engaged so the silence is rather telling IMO.

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Nothing to see here, just mr. free speech censoring the name (David Cleary) of the british soldier who, on behalf of the british army, led the vicious mass murders on civilians in Derry, N Ireland on January 30, 1972 (aka Bloody Sunday)?
 

Every day, there are a dozen more pieces of evidence that make Elon one of the biggest fucking jokes to ever walk the earth.
He’s a lying hypocrite and a complete joke. I’d call him a piece of dick, but dicks actually have a purpose.
And there are people, on this site, who still worship him. They thus manage to be even more pathetic than he does.
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