Elon Musk: Officially a fraud and piece of shit. Official or unofficial war criminal?

[Celery Man 20933]

people just exploding in their cybertrucks after dinesh spent all night with elon over his shoulder improving his code

 

[NoName 16351]

6 hours ago, MrBig said:

Dustin Moskovitz, one of the co-founders of Facebook, posted on Threads that he believes Tesla is committing Enron level fraud.

here's a car guy on substack who goes though their financials, this is long but points out a LOT of issues they have

https://bradmunchen.substack.com/p/tesla-q1-results-a-shady-set-of-numbers

ill share the highlights:
 

Quote

Despite continued price cuts, a one-month shutdown of production at their German factory, and 20% lower deliveries than in Q4 2023, Tesla somehow managed to eke out roughly flat Automotive gross margins of 18.5% in Q1 versus 18.9% in Q4 2023. Imagine having flat gross margins despite 20% lower volumes and roughly 5% lower prices.

This sounded alarm bells in my head and it turns out to be the biggest takeaway from the Q1 results: deferred FSD revenue recognition must have been huge. While Tesla noted in their Shareholder Deck that they recognized deferred FSD revenues in Q1, they did not provide a number and none of the analysts on the earnings call asked about it.

 

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Quote

Tesla clearly uses these deferred revenues to prop up profits during weak quarters. Figure 1 shows that the highest bookings (highlighted in red) were made during the weakest quarters of the past 3 years.

The clearest sign that Tesla booked a large amount of deferred FSD revenues in Q1 is the 1.5% QoQ rise in average unit prices versus Q4 2023. Tesla cut prices in China by around 3% and rampant inventory discounts in the US and the EU likely led to a 5% decline in those regions.

Assuming that Tesla should’ve seen average prices drop by 3% QoQ in Q1 (excluding deferred FSD revenue bookings), I can extrapolate $700 million of recognition in my model. While this is highly speculative at the moment, it is worth noting as there is no way Tesla’s car prices rose by 1.5% QoQ. Also, note that deferred revenues on the balance sheet within current assets were slightly up QoQ to $3.0 billion rather than declining. Non-GAAP EPS would’ve been $0.27 or 40% below Tesla’s reported $0.34. And this would’ve undershot consensus by 67% rather than the 8% miss of reported numbers.

 

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Tesla’s Q1 Results Minus an Estimated $700m of Deferred FSD Revenue Recognition

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Quote

In the footnote where Tesla shows days’ inventory, Tesla has an arcane formula for counting inventory: “Days of supply is calculated by dividing new vehicle ending inventory by the relevant quarter’s deliveries and using 75 trading days.” Based on this, Tesla’s Q1 inventory rose from 15 days’ supply in Q4 2023 to 28 days in Q1.

This implies Q1 vehicle inventory of 144,409 units (see Figure 2 below), which amounts to a whopping 33% of total Q1 production. And while Q2 is a seasonally higher quarter for sales, having this much inventory on hand will likely lead to deep price cuts, the first of which came worldwide over the weekend.

 

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this is all you need to know about how poorly things are going. their implied Q1 inventory is 33% of Q1 production! 33%!!!!!!!!!

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• Quote

  Musk says deliveries will grow YoY in 2024: Musk said, “I think we’ll have higher sales this year than last year.” This is an astounding proclamation given that April sales in China are down over 50% YoY and the EU is down 20% YoY. Having cut headcount by nearly 20% last week, it is clear that Musk knows that demand has fallen off a cliff. Note that Musk did something similar on the Q4 2022 earnings call in January 2023 with regard to Tesla’s unprecedented 20% price cuts a few weeks before: in his prepared statement, Musk said, “We currently are seeing orders at almost twice the rate of production”. This was either a lie or the peak of orders before they fizzled out, as deliveries only grew 4% QoQ despite the 20% price cuts. I lean towards the latter having heard a similar tone today.  

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last few things about the stock vs other car stocks:

"but wait, it's an AI stock!!!!"

 

 

 

Edited April 25 by NoName

[Ted Lange 16084]

[Captainant 27640]

Cybertruck spotted in Kenya

[Goredho 17397]

1 hour ago, NoName said:

lol

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Elon being able to do whatever he wants with your Tesla gives "auto-pilot" a whole new meaning.  Must be some very fine print in the purchase documents.

[High Plains Drifter 11034]

 

Dumb question amnesty please: Can these vehicles, cyberturky specifically but any EV in general, be disconnected from the internet and still function? Because fuck letting a company use my vehicle as part of a data center. 

[Parliament 14249]

“Deferrer FSD revenue.”  So they wrote themselves an iou from the future?  Like claimed revenue they think might come later?  Is that legal?

[NoName 16351]

5 minutes ago, Parliament said:

“Deferrer FSD revenue.”  So they wrote themselves an iou from the future?  Like claimed revenue they think might come later?  Is that legal?

 

technically, yes? from his article

Edited April 25 by NoName

[Captainant 27640]

5 minutes ago, Parliament said:

“Deferrer FSD revenue.”  So they wrote themselves an iou from the future?  Like claimed revenue they think might come later?  Is that legal?

That's called "doing an Enron" with the mark-to-market fuckery to cook the books

[Captain Ron 12872]

41 minutes ago, Captainant said:

That's called "doing an Enron" with the mark-to-market fuckery to cook the books

Sounds like in the future they are going to call it doing an Elon. 

[Parliament 14249]

So when this blows up there will be a shareholder class action lawsuit and I'll get how many pennies on the dollar for my stock?

[Captain Ron 12872]

28 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So when this blows up there will be a shareholder class action lawsuit and I'll get how many pennies on the dollar for my stock?

Don’t worry, you can sell your Tesla with FSD 420.69 for $100,000!! Or you can use it as a robotaxi make money!!!

[NoName 16351]

32 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So when this blows up there will be a shareholder class action lawsuit and I'll get how many pennies on the dollar for my stock?

if you own stock now and haven't sold, idk what to say. you should have sold in 21 or 22, unless you got in very, very early or have a very very low cost.

which then begs the question. when did you buy in / what was your per share cost?

[BurntEyes 5958]

17 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Bookmarking this, because I'm certain that at least 75% of it will turn out to be an accurate prediction of our shittacular future.

Lol, the future??? 

[NoName 16351]

key parts of the thread that really hit home:

this part (10 and 11) is exactly how i feel, especially 11.

 

 

[Parliament 14249]

1 hour ago, NoName said:

if you own stock now and haven't sold, idk what to say. you should have sold in 21 or 22, unless you got in very, very early or have a very very low cost.

which then begs the question. when did you buy in / what was your per share cost?

Yeah I'm fooked.  Like Wally fooked.  Hated Elon so I shorted in 2019 or so.  Got lucky early in the pandemic and bought them back for a profit.  Bought stock outright a few months later.  Sold some of it for a loss 15 months ago.  The rest (not a whole lot) I still own.  Might as well ride it to zero.  I am a cautionary tale.  No longer Surly 1%.

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

4 hours ago, Captainant said:

That's called "doing an Enron" with the mark-to-market fuckery to cook the books

It's a lot more "channel stuffing" than "mark-to-market fuckery".

[Goredho 17397]

33 minutes ago, NoName said:

key parts of the thread that really hit home:

this part (10 and 11) is exactly how i feel, especially 11.

 

 

He stated it all pretty well.

[Hank Kingsley 20908]

LOL just a dumbass caricature at this point 

 

[Captain Ron 12872]

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

LOL just a dumbass caricature at this point 

 

Which one?

• Elon for his lack of any sort of insight into posted?
• Tucker for his resting taking a shit face?

 

[C-Man 27197]

DGAF if fake. DGAF if already posted:

[C-Man 27197]

DGAF if fake. DGAF if already posted:

And we’re done here:

[Deej 76756]

16 minutes ago, C-Man said:

DGAF if fake. DGAF if already posted:



 

I'll never eat a sushi roll again.

 

[C-Man 27197]

22 minutes ago, C-Man said:

DGAF if fake. DGAF if already posted:



 

Well, I see this was thoroughly discussed on the previous page. Too many off-site meetings the past two days.

[atomheartbevo 89630]

54 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Well, I see this was thoroughly discussed on the previous page. Too many off-site meetings the past two days.

It's interesting watching one of the worlds richest men thoroughly embrace the incel fitness and outdoor routine.

 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21877]

14 hours ago, NoName said:

here's a car guy on substack who goes though their financials, this is long but points out a LOT of issues they have

https://bradmunchen.substack.com/p/tesla-q1-results-a-shady-set-of-numbers

ill share the highlights:
 

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Tesla’s Q1 Results Minus an Estimated $700m of Deferred FSD Revenue Recognition

+
 

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this is all you need to know about how poorly things are going. their implied Q1 inventory is 33% of Q1 production! 33%!!!!!!!!!

+

•  

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last few things about the stock vs other car stocks:

"but wait, it's an AI stock!!!!"

 

 

 

Sounds like PWC will be joining Authur Andersen, but at least I never worked for PWC

[MrBig 5385]

9 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

LOL just a dumbass caricature at this point 

 

I said in the shit that makes you surly thread that it pisses me off when people use “how come” instead of “why” because it sounds fucking stupid and I’ve decided it’s a clear sign of low intelligence. 

 

[atomheartbevo 89630]

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2024/04/toyota-will-spend-1-4-billion-to-build-electric-3-row-suv-in-indiana/

Quote

US electric vehicle manufacturing got a bit of a boost today. Toyota has revealed that it is spending $1.4 billion to upgrade its factory in Princeton, Indiana, in order to assemble a new three-row electric SUV. That will add an extra 340 jobs to the factory, which currently employs more than 7,500 workers who assemble the Toyota Sienna minivan and the Toyota Highlander, Grand Highlander, and Lexus TX SUVs.

Quote

Curiously, Toyota says this will be an entirely different new three-row electric SUV from the one that it will build at its factory in Georgetown, Kentucky. That plant upgrade, which was made public last summer, will cost Toyota $1.3 billion.

Part of the improvements to the Princeton plant include a battery pack assembly line, which will use cells produced at a $13.9 billion battery plant in North Carolina, which is due to open next year.

[Nivek 16923]

I am a deferred billionaire.

[Sawbonz 27543]

On 4/25/2024 at 7:45 AM, NoName said:

lol

+

This guy thinks he owns every Tesla?

Drivers better check the fine print 

[BurntEyes 5958]

8 hours ago, MrBig said:

I said in the shit that makes you surly thread that it pisses me off when people use “how come” instead of “why” because it sounds fucking stupid and I’ve decided it’s a clear sign of low intelligence. 

 

Honestly, I am very confident that's a specific choice by TC to "relate" to his target market. 

[Sawbonz 27543]

18 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

LOL just a dumbass caricature at this point 

 

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/26/24141403/tesla-autopilot-nhtsa-investigation-recall-software-fix

 

Quote

Tesla can add yet another investigation into its Autopilot feature to what’s already piling up to be a pretty bad year for the company. 

On Friday, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) revealed it was opening a new probe to assess whether the recall fix Tesla implemented for over 2 million cars back in December actually did enough to address safety concerns surrounding its Autopilot driver assistance system.

 

Quote

That recall was prompted by a previous investigation NHTSA raised in 2021 that reviewed hundreds of collisions and 13 fatalities allegedly involving Tesla’s Autopilot feature. NHTSA has now closed that same probe following Tesla’s recall notice, finding that the name “Autopilot” may “lead drivers to believe that the automation has greater capabilities than it does.” 

The agency also found that Tesla’s Autopilot can discourage drivers from taking manual control of the vehicle compared to other automated driving systems because doing so deactivates Autosteer lane-centering assistance.

 

Quote

NHTSA’s new investigation focuses on the software update Tesla rolled out to fix these issues in December, which prompts drivers with increased warnings and alerts to pay greater attention when using Autopilot and Autosteer. Some of these remedies require Tesla owners to opt in, according to the agency, and allow them to reverse the safety updates if they choose. 

A number of new collisions that have occurred since the software update was applied have also driven the new investigation, alongside tests NHTSA has conducted on amended vehicles. 

 

Spoiler

Updates to Autopilot that Tesla has rolled out following the initial fix are also being evaluated to determine why they weren't included in the initial recall update. Every Autopilot-equipped Tesla vehicle produced between 2012 and 2024 — including the Cybertruck, which is already being recalled over defective accelerator pedals — is subject to the new probe.

This isn’t the first time that this software update has been scrutinized. Robotics expert and former NHTSA senior safety advisor Missy Cummings said the recall remedy was “very vague” shortly after it was announced and would likely “not be as robust as NHTSA would like to see.” Tests from safety experts at Consumer Report also found the update “doesn’t go far enough to prevent misuse or address the root causes of driver inattention.”

 

Edited April 26 by Francisco 2.0

[NoName 16351]

[Eastwood 4394]

They should give him a deferred payout until Tesla’s FSD deferred revenue IOUs pay out. 

Edited April 26 by Eastwood
Typing on a phone is hard.

[Nivek 16923]

2 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

They should give him a deferred payout. It hits one all those FSD deferred revenue IOUs pay out. 

[Goredho 17397]

42 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/26/24141403/tesla-autopilot-nhtsa-investigation-recall-software-fix

 

 

 

 

  Hide contents

Updates to Autopilot that Tesla has rolled out following the initial fix are also being evaluated to determine why they weren't included in the initial recall update. Every Autopilot-equipped Tesla vehicle produced between 2012 and 2024 — including the Cybertruck, which is already being recalled over defective accelerator pedals — is subject to the new probe.

This isn’t the first time that this software update has been scrutinized. Robotics expert and former NHTSA senior safety advisor Missy Cummings said the recall remedy was “very vague” shortly after it was announced and would likely “not be as robust as NHTSA would like to see.” Tests from safety experts at Consumer Report also found the update “doesn’t go far enough to prevent misuse or address the root causes of driver inattention.”

 

Similarly https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/26/24141361/tesla-autopilot-fsd-nhtsa-investigation-report-crash-death.  Tl;dr Tesla is Ocean's Gate on wheels.

Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving linked to hundreds of crashes, dozens of deaths

In March 2023, a North Carolina student was stepping off a school bus when he was struck by a Tesla Model Y traveling at “highway speeds,” according to a federal investigation that published today. The Tesla driver was using Autopilot, the automaker’s advanced driver-assist feature that Elon Musk insists will eventually lead to fully autonomous cars.

The 17-year-old student who was struck was transported to a hospital by helicopter with life-threatening injuries. But what the investigation found after examining hundreds of similar crashes was a pattern of driver inattention, combined with the shortcomings of Tesla’s technology, resulting in hundreds of injuries and dozens of deaths.

Drivers using Autopilot or the system’s more advanced sibling, Full Self-Driving, “were not sufficiently engaged in the driving task,” and Tesla’s technology “did not adequately ensure that drivers maintained their attention on the driving task,” NHTSA concluded.

In total, NHTSA investigated 956 crashes, starting in January 2018 and extending all the way until August 2023. Of those crashes, some of which involved other vehicles striking the Tesla vehicle, 29 people died. There were also 211 crashes in which “the frontal plane of the Tesla struck a vehicle or obstacle in its path.” These crashes, which were often the most severe, resulted in 14 deaths and 49 injuries.

Spoiler

NHTSA was prompted to launch its investigation after several incidents of Tesla drivers crashing into stationary emergency vehicles parked on the side of the road. Most of these incidents took place after dark, with the software ignoring scene control measures, including warning lights, flares, cones, and an illuminated arrow board.

In its report, the agency found that Autopilot — and, in some cases, FSD — was not designed to keep the driver engaged in the task of driving. Tesla says that it warns its customers that they need to pay attention while using Autopilot and FSD, which includes keeping their hands on the wheels and eyes on the road. But NHTSA says that in many cases, drivers would become overly complacent and lose focus. And when it came time to react, it was often too late.

In 59 crashes examined by NHTSA, the agency found that Tesla drivers had enough time, “five or more seconds,” prior to crashing into another object in which to react. In 19 of those crashes, the hazard was visible for 10 or more seconds before the collision. Reviewing crash logs and data provided by Tesla, NHTSA found that drivers failed to brake or steer to avoid the hazard in a majority of the crashes analyzed.

“Crashes with no or late evasive action attempted by the driver were found across all Tesla hardware versions and crash circumstances,” NHTSA said.

NHTSA also compared Tesla’s Level 2 (L2) automation features to products available in other companies’ vehicles. Unlike other systems, Autopilot would disengage rather than allow drivers to adjust their steering. This “discourages” drivers from staying involved in the task of driving, NHTSA said.

A comparison of Tesla’s design choices to those of L2 peers identified Tesla as an industry outlier in its approach to L2 technology by mismatching a weak driver engagement system with Autopilot’s permissive operating capabilities.

Even the brand name “Autopilot” is misleading, NHTSA said, conjuring up the idea that drivers are not in control. While other companies use some version of “assist,” “sense,” or “team,” Tesla’s products lure drivers into thinking they are more capable than they are. California’s attorney general and the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles are both investigating Tesla for misleading branding and marketing.

NHTSA acknowledges that its probe may be incomplete based on “gaps” in Tesla’s telemetry data. That could mean there are many more crashes involving Autopilot and FSD than what NHTSA was able to find.

Tesla issued a voluntary recall late last year in response to the investigation, pushing out an over-the-air software update to add more warnings to Autopilot. NHTSA said today it was launching a new investigation into the recall after a number of safety experts said the update was inadequate and still allowed for misuse.

The findings cut against Musk’s insistence that Tesla is an artificial intelligence company that is on the cusp of releasing a fully autonomous vehicle for personal use. The company plans to unveil a robotaxi later this year that is supposed to usher in this new era for Tesla. During this week’s first quarter earnings call, Musk doubled down on the notion that his vehicles were safer than human-driven cars.

“If you’ve got, at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has, let’s say, half the accident rate of a human-driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore,” Musk said. “Because at that point, stopping autonomy means killing people.”

 

[4th&Five 41519]

1 hour ago, NoName said:

Lunacy and completely detached from reality describes Elon pretty well.

[MrBig 5385]

1 hour ago, NoName said:

[HenryJames 66038]

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21183]

So typical incel Musk-sucker.

[HenryJames 66038]

[BurntEyes 5958]

23 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

My skeptical radar is going off a bit on that one. Then again, the world has lost its mind so..

[wood 11225]

nsiap ... Imagine paying a huge premium for a go-anywhere SUV supposedly capable of driving on Mars ... that can't survive a trip through a car wash. Imagine the electrical components of a car built by pretty much any other company in the last 50 years not being able to handle a trip through a car wash. Tesla simply is not a real car company. 

Tesla Cybertruck turns into world's most expensive brick after car wash  https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/20/cybertruck_car_wash_mode/

Tesla Cybertruck Owners Complain Of Vehicle Not Working After Car Wash: The vehicle was called a "tin can," a "lemon," and a "paperweight" by internet users, who also made fun of the fact that although it seems bulletproof, it is not waterproof.  https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/tesla-cybertruck-owners-complain-of-vehicle-not-working-after-car-wash-5505843

Edited April 26 by wood

[Goredho 17397]

33 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Lunacy and completely detached from reality describes Elon pretty well.

It takes a special kind of man to take fuck you money and parley it into getting society to look at you and collectively say, "FUCK YOU!"

[wood 11225]

5 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

My skeptical radar is going off a bit on that one. Then again, the world has lost its mind so..

I'm not surprised. I see crazier shit on the road pretty much every time I drive anywhere.

[Captain Ron 12872]

1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

 

 

Dude. At the 0:07 mark of that video I decided that I hope the driver of that car hits a tree and dies.

He basically said he wanted to leave that confrontation and then did nothing of the sort for 1 minute. That that minute ... WOW.

 

1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

My skeptical radar is going off a bit on that one. Then again, the world has lost its mind so..

 

A. Given that just about any cyclist will tell you of encounters like this I can say nah, this seems pretty spot on.

B. Your skeptical radar is going off because you don't drive a Tesla. If you did, it would just be a skeptical camera and which doesn't see shit.

[Goredho 17397]

1 hour ago, BeardIP said:

Investors love this guy though:

Elon Musk’s xAI is reportedly close to raising $6 billion. The fund-raising round, which would include investors such as Sequoia Capital, would value the artificial intelligence start-up at about $18 billion, according to The Information. It would be one of the biggest cash hauls in an A.I. start-up amid a heated innovation race, and shows investors are spreading their bets: Sequoia is already a big investor in OpenAI.

ETA Link: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/musks-xai-is-close-to-raising-6-billion-from-sequoia-others

Something I've seen pretty regularly in startup life is that greatness in a startup context does not necessarily equate to greatness in a big company context.  Some people flourish on the frontier where the rules are being made up as you go.  You don't have to worry about things like regulation or compliance.  No laws exist affecting a new industry.  Everything is about getting to market and shotgunning ideas at users until you find something that clicks.  Put someone like that at IBM where you have to worry about EU privacy laws and shit before you do anything, and they aren't nearly as successful.  And they hate it.  All that big company shit feels like bureaucratic red tape introducing drag on their "spirit of innovation."

Elon strikes me as someone like that.  Someone who could only flourish on the frontier where the rules and laws are what he says they are.  The problem for current investors in his more mature companies is that he is rich enough to never have to really learn that about himself.  He can still lead these companies beyond that context in a failing way without their being many consequences.  He and the current investors/stock holders would be much better off if he hand picked successors to lead things like Tesla after he has incubated them through a start-up phase.  Especially because with each new capitalistic tar baby he creates and holds control of, he gets spread a little more thin.

I don't think early investors have been burned by him yet.  I could be wrong about that.  I don't follow Elon news religiously, and I don't have a full timeline of his business history.  But I think as far as early investors are concerned, he's still a winning horse.  That will be true until he's not.  Soon enough, as all these roles and responsibilities continue to be consolidated into a single increasingly erratic individual, something has to give.  Does he give Tesla and its problems the time and attention they deserve?   Does he give SpaceX and its problems the time and attention they deserve?  Does he give xAI and its problems the time and attention they deserve?

My guess is he'll enjoy the time and attention he gives to a new venture like xAI, and if something more mature and banal like Tesla or SpaceX suffers, so be it.  Why does he care?  He's got generational fuck you money.  Will his ego allow him to relinquish control of those more mature companies so they can be competently led by someone suited for where they are at in their growth cycle?

[Goredho 17397]

Yep.  Aristotle said, "Knowing yourself is the beginning of all wisdom".  But when someone has more money than their great, great grandchildren and any descendants in between could ever spend, they never need to get to know themselves and who they really are. They can be whoever they want to be -- even unsuccessfully.  Their money prevents the intrusion of reality on their psyche.  Which isn't to say all billionaires are stunted wunderkinds.  But it is something that is a danger for them, and I think it's pretty undebatable at this point that Elon's on this path.

This is why I wouldn't trust my personal well being with any of Musk's products.  Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, etc... all require you to put your safety, health and well-being in the hands of an Elon Musk led company.  And I only want my health and well-being in the hands of a company that has an inviolate "safety-first" attitude.  Elon's companies have an inviolate "Elon-first" attitude.  Decisions are being made solely on how they make the CEO feel within his alternate reality bubble.

[Brisketexan 105082]

I just opened my Twitter account (I genuinely don’t use it) for the first time in forever.
Holy shit. The “for you” is just a cascade of insane right wing bullshit. I’m serious, that’s all it is. What a fucking cesspool.