"What are the odds we have to fight our neighbors or even family to defend ourselves this year?"

[Brisketexan 104628]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

There’s zero doubt once he’s out they’ll all beat eachother up and coalesce around nobody.  Just gotta ride this out.  His rise really is a black swan event.  Thankfully

You are very probably right.

What keeps me awake at night - and understand, my job is to think and worry about EVERYTHING that can possibly go wrong, and to be prepared for it - is that there is a non-zero chance that you're wrong.

[wildcat09 29260]

30 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Not the next day but if he wins he won't have guys like Mattis, Tillerson, or Kelly to babysit his dumb ass and keep the country relatively stable even with an empty headed president. 

He's already said he made a big mistake appointing old school republicans last time. It'll be only maga scum lunatics like Attorney General MTG, Chief of Staff Boebert, and Secretary of Defense Gaetz. Those pieces of shit will be there only to do Trump's bidding no matter how corrupt or insane. They will 100 percent go after Biden and Democrats who have opposed them. The fate of the country will be up to people refusing orders from the president and his staff, and we've seen how spineless people became last time with less at stake. 

This. Not only will there not be people in positions who will be willing to refuse orders, the people who will be in those positions will be fucking rabid to exceed whatever orders are actually given and issue insane orders of their own.  

They'll start with rounding up immigrants and people who look like immigrants.  Any lawsuits against this will have a good chance of landing in front of a Trump judge and even if one or more don't and a judge grants an injunction they'll just ignore it. The actual federal officials charged with complying with those orders won't give a shit if they're illegal.

Probably at the same time, they'll start going after trans people. They'll find some legal pretext(s) to take trans kids from their parents, ban trans people from federal employment, and strip them of protections against discrimination. Then they'll do the same for gay people.  States will start investigating parents who have gay or trans children for fabricated charges of child abuse and the like.  They'll find dozens of ways to wield state power in ways we can't even predict against every minority group.  They've been planning it for years now.  

Meanwhile, Trump and his lackeys will be not-so-subtly telling his supporters that they won't face any consequences for violence inflicted against their political enemies. First that'll come in the form of pardons for everyone convicted of 1/6 offenses, then promises of pardons for patriots who defend the country from the liberal vermin traitors. You'll see similar promises from GOP officials at the state level too in states they control.  They want to encourage unrest to justify invoking the insurrection act and deploying the military in American cities. Before they do that though, they'll have made sure to purge the military of officers they expect might refuse those orders.

Remember, all of this is conditioned on if Trump wins. At that point, if Trump has won, his followers will no longer be disillusioned and unmotivated. He won't have any Republicans at all publicly opposed to him. He'll be seen on the right as a conquering champion who took everything the deep state could throw at him and beat them at a game they rigged. And his political opposition will be splintered. Everyone left of center will be scared and disillusioned and bickering over whose fault it was. There will be no real institutional constraints remaining on his ability to wield power as he and those around him see fit, and literally all they want to do is hurt everyone they hate.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

32 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

 Someone on one of these threads posited that a second civil war would look a lot more like The Troubles in Ireland than Syria or something, and I think that's probably right. 

This scenario was along the lines of what I would imagine; random locales that have violence break out, not unlike what we have domestically already with the large numbers of unregulated firearms that wind up in the hands of angry people (mostly male, often mentally ill).

As was pointed out, Trump is older than most despot wanna-be types but Michael Flynn and the rest are under 65 and more than happy to take up the mantle if given the opportunity. Dust off your anti-fascist songs by the American greats (like @cactusflinthead provided) or if you want some from the old days, there's always this one:

I haven't a drop of Italian blood in my ancestry, but I can cook up a marvelous pasta dinner and feed the partisans.

Win or lose, the struggle will continue. It always does as long as there is power and those who seek it.

[The Ace of Aces 5106]

I was at a brewery Saturday wearing a UT hat. A guy came up to me, asked if I was from Texas and when I said I was born and raised there but moved here (to Pennsylvania) in the mid 2000s once I realized the writing was on the wall for the state. That fucker goes, "You have a lot of help coming to fight at the border." He then walked away. 

I wanted to laugh in his face but was too dumbfounded. 

[gmr548 16517]

On 2/4/2024 at 1:15 PM, immamac said:

2020 was way worse than now because trump amplified the volume 100x. This cycle is just as dangerous but Trump is cooked and really it’s going to take a meltdown or something crazy for Biden not to win in a largely uneventful election that should be called on election night. The MAGA movement dies this cycle because the American public is going to put it to death intentionally. 

Your track record on called shots like this is second only to Helobious and I now feel as bad about the election as I have this entire cycle.

[henrygandorf 29179]

1 hour ago, Hermanator said:

Not the next day but if he wins he won't have guys like Mattis, Tillerson, or Kelly to babysit his dumb ass and keep the country relatively stable even with an empty headed president. 

He's already said he made a big mistake appointing old school republicans last time. It'll be only maga scum lunatics like Attorney General MTG, Chief of Staff Boebert, and Secretary of Defense Gaetz. Those pieces of shit will be there only to do Trump's bidding no matter how corrupt or insane. They will 100 percent go after Biden and Democrats who have opposed them. The fate of the country will be up to people refusing orders from the president and his staff, and we've seen how spineless people became last time with less at stake. 

 

1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

No, but I bet there will be a whole lotta assholes that wake up on January 21st and think it's okay to start publicly insulting and terrorizing brown people. They might even start showing up armed to non-Christian religious services or restaurants that host drag brunches. Someone on one of these threads posited that a second civil war would look a lot more like The Troubles in Ireland than Syria or something, and I think that's probably right. 

the question was whether he'll go after biden/political enemies, and i said no.  so far nobody has disagreed with me, because i'm right.  trump won't do shit, and the people he assigns won't do shit either.  he'll want to make biden's post-presidency as uncomfortable as his has been, but it won't work because (a) biden isn't running again, and (b) biden didn't commit a bunch of felonies (fake crimes don't count).  yeah, maybe congress will hold some nonsensical hearings that nobody will pay attention to and none of the subpoenas will matter, whatever.

the govt will be a shitshow and will turn the nation into a fucking joke on a global level.  congress will get flipped blue, so that's probably the only guardrail of any kind left, as the senate will either be effectively split or go back red.  it will take 10-15 years to unfuck whatever he does during those 4 years, assuming he survives them. 

i am curious what he'll do for four years, since he spent his entire presidency campaigning.  and i know people say he'll try to make it to where he can run again, but that's not going to happen.  election laws are hard to overturn because the states actually do have power there (states' rights!).  if the electoral college can't be remedied, nothing can.

he'll be all bluster, be shitty to groups of people, and those in certain states will have it worse than others.  his base will eat it up and everybody else will hate him more than they do now, which is a lot.  he'll want to go on tv everyday, which i will root for, because i want to see his dementia kick in in real time, unedited.

as for anyone who says certain people will have license to be outwardly shitty to others, well most of them do it already because they still think trump won.  my biggest fear is that four years of maga will kill it quicker, but i guess we'll never know because trump is not winning this election.

carry on with the fanfic.  i'm a big fan of the "never zero" memes.

[Macanudo 12928]

5 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Sadly, I disagree.  He found people who would do the shady shit for him at the end of his last term, and the GOP is even crazier now.  Most of the people he assigned to help him commit a coup last time did exactly what they were told.  The ones who didn’t, like Mike Pence and the Georgia Secretary of State, did so knowing Trump lost and they would soon face consequences from a non-Trump government if they broke the law.  That scenario is very different for would be conscientious objectors if Trump has just won and effectively is the law.

Trump won’t have anyone applying guardrails if he wins this time.  Even if he is incompetent at producing the specific things he promises, like Mexico paying for a wall, I don’t have much doubt that the rule of law will go out the window.  And that is plenty horrible in and of itself.

Bingo.   Trump's appointees will be batshit crazy.   And remember, "Acting Secretary of X" has all of the authority and none of the oversight of confirmation.   

Trump wins and we're turbo fucked.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

3 hours ago, The Ace of Aces said:

I was at a brewery Saturday wearing a UT hat. A guy came up to me, asked if I was from Texas and when I said I was born and raised there but moved here (to Pennsylvania) in the mid 2000s once I realized the writing was on the wall for the state. That fucker goes, "You have a lot of help coming to fight at the border." He then walked away. 

I wanted to laugh in his face but was too dumbfounded. 

National talk about the border and even Texit imply that 100% of Texas supports Abbott. I don't even think that he has 50% support in what he's doing.

[Hermanator 6945]

2 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Sadly, I disagree.  He found people who would do the shady shit for him at the end of his last term, and the GOP is even crazier now.  Most of the people he assigned to help him commit a coup last time did exactly what they were told.  The ones who didn’t, like Mike Pence and the Georgia Secretary of State, did so knowing Trump lost and they would soon face consequences from a non-Trump government if they broke the law.  That scenario is very different for would be conscientious objectors if Trump has just won and effectively is the law.

Trump won’t have anyone applying guardrails if he wins this time.  Even if he is incompetent at producing the specific things he promises, like Mexico paying for a wall, I don’t have much doubt that the rule of law will go out the window.  And that is plenty horrible in and of itself.

Yeah, in henry's scenario the regular laws and regulations are still in effect and followed. The problem will be the maga trumpers at the top will brazen disregard the laws. It'll be up to the subordinates to stand up and say no. Then the chances are they'll get replaced by someone who will say yes. 

All it takes is whatever maga attorney general is chosen to fill the DOJ with magas and find maga field agents to arrest Biden and whomever else they want to stage a kangaroo court trial in front of a trump appointed judge. This happens every single time a country breaks down into authoritarian dictatorship and all it takes is enough people saying "fuck the laws we'll do what we want. Who's gonna stop us?"

Then it's a full on coup. We already had the first stage of it three years ago. The path is there for making it successful the next time. 

People like Henry want to believe our democracy is on such a rock solid foundation it cannot be compromised completely. Human history does not show that to be the case. 

Edited February 5 by Hermanator

[Chewbacca 7730]

On 2/3/2024 at 7:20 PM, Mo Horn said:

Moving to Spain... OK, to be fair that's our plan regardless of what happens in November after we retire; but that will make it a certainty. We currently don't have grandkids, and Mrs. MO says that might change our plans. i've said if Trump wins we may be living apart after 40+ years of marriage, because she can stay here but I'm going with or without her. 

Didn't Spain get rid of their golden passport program?

[Mo Horn 8807]

17 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Didn't Spain get rid of their golden passport program?

Nope, they still have it. You need €500k in the bank or investment in a Spanish business or property. We can't do that, but they do have a non-revenue visa where you only need like €35k for a couple in any bank or investment. It doesn't need to be Spanish, so our retirement accounts have that. It's good for a year and you can renew it twice for 2 years each. There are a few other things you have to do, but that's our plan. 

Edited February 6 by Mo Horn

[Surly Bevo 24696]

You are very probably right.
What keeps me awake at night - and understand, my job is to think and worry about EVERYTHING that can possibly go wrong, and to be prepared for it - is that there is a non-zero chance that you're wrong.

[Hookah Horns 3082]

On 2/4/2024 at 11:23 AM, ztejas said:

AI Pandora's box that we're sticking our dicks in 

Holy shit, I hadn't heard about this. Where can I get one? My friend would like one of them boxes. 

[Hank_Hill 18494]

Japan.